Keuchel Has Gone More South Than Dallas

[DOUGHBOYS]

I drafted Dallas Keuchel a lot this year. Last year, I was impressed by Keuchel in every way. Enough k's to keep a fantasy player happy. Most of his outs came on ground balls. He was the Astros man when needing a big time pitcher. There's also the stats that won him the Cy Young award that we all know.

This year, Dallas Keuchel stats resemble that of Ubaldo Jimenez. I don't know what's wrong with Keuchel. Tipping pitches, mechanics, and hidden injuries are the usual suspects. It really doesn't matter. As a fantasy owner, what I do know is that he is an unusable bench spot. Even with a two-start week this week.

A buddy of mine drafted Carlos Carrasco everywhere. He is also bummed. Like Keuchel, he is also unusable until coming back from injury. My buddy does not see it s the same situation. He likes to think that he was right in selecting Carrasco, just unlucky with the injury. Whereas I was wrong for drafting Keuchel because he sucks.
I see this point.
I feel I was penalized by the Keuchel pick in starting him the first few weeks and getting his putrid numbers. In the meantime, Carrasco threw well before hurt. At the same time, we've been on an even keel over the last three weeks in that both pitchers have been benched.

For the future, Carrasco looks like a safer bet in moving forward with our season. The Keuchel of this year and the Carrasco of this year were the reasons why NFBC'ers didn't like selecting pitchers with high draft choices in the past. Pitchers were thought to be more brittle and less predictable. And looking at Garrett Richards, Adam Wainwright, David Price, Sonny Gray, along with Keuchel and Carrasco, that thinking is still relevant.

One rule I have made for myself is not to draft an injured pitcher. Pitchers like Ryu, Eduardo Rodriguez, Henderson Alvarez, Homer Bailey, and Zack Wheeler all seem to have better chances for setbacks than helping fantasy squads.
For me, the risk has overwhelmed the return.

Getting back to Keuchel, what do we do with him?
Practice patience.
I haven't started him in three weeks in most leagues. I treat him as I would Ubaldo Jimenez, in that I'll only throw him now if he is in a position to succeed. That hasn't happened recently, and there has been little indication that he should be treated any differently than Jimenez during those three weeks.
He has a start vs. the Angels next week.
His chance for a W over a hapless team is good. Without injury or rainouts, the opposing pitcher will be Jerad Weaver.
The problem being that the Astros, themselves, have become hapless.
A supreme mismatch last year, has become an iffy start this year.
Still, I'll probably pull the trigger.
Right now, it is the only advantage I have over the Carrasco owner, I have that choice.

[KJ Duke]

He really did look like himself through 4+2/3rds yesterday, pitching down in zone, hitting corners, good movement.

Then with 2 gone in the 5th a slightly misplayed double wasn't caught to left, then the same situation in right. After that he completely fell apart ... it seemed mental, as soon as he gave up a hard hit ball it seemed to get in his head and he couldn't locate anything and he lost the movement on his CB.

I think he's getting close. Probably a good time to bring in a sports psychologist.

[skmetz51]

Hi Dan,
I feel the same way about Sonny Gray (and I also have 2 shares of Dallas). Supposedly Gray's not hurt, but he doesn't look right. I'm afraid to start him. But I was also afraid to start Price vs the Astros last week and he got a W and 12 Ks. Sometimes, you just can't win. But Sonny stays on my bench until further notice. Steve/LetsGoMetz

[DOUGHBOYS]

Hey Steve, long time no read...
It takes fortitude to bench a pitcher who had a great previous year. We keep thinking 'I know he's better than this!', but until they prove it to us, benching him saves our stats and sanity.
It's funny that pitchers can be treated this way. Hitters, even somebody like Josh Donaldson who is not hitting a thing, can never be benched because they can turn it around so quickly.
Also, hitters going 0-4 is acceptable in hoping that another player will pick up the slack for the slumper. With Starters, one Start in 8/9 for a week really hurts.
This stuff ain't easy!

KJ, I hope you're right. I've seen signs from Keuchel too. Consistency, something that seemed to have come so easy for him last year, is just not there yet this year. I've got him benched for the start this weekend and I hope he makes me feel bad for benching him.

[Bronx Yankees]

I don't think Keuchel is as good as he looked last year, but he is much better than he has looked so far this year. I think he'll put up solid SP2 numbers over the next four months, but am not totally convinced he's a true ace for fantasy purposes.

Mike

[Bjs2025]

Who are people starting in Keuchel's place in their lineups?

[Gb2715]

Who are people starting in Keuchel's place in their lineups?

Well I liked Sonny Gray this year? So we all know how that worked out. My best team is a DC that I drafted my first pitcher in rd 8! It was the first one and I watched pitchers fly off the board and that's when the strategy change for every other team. And we all know how the Price, Harvey, Gray, Archer saga is going!

[KJ Duke]

Who are people starting in Keuchel's place in their lineups?

For my 3 Keuchels ... Keuchel, Keuchel, Shelby Miller-2x. Playing with fire.

[Gb2715]

Who are people starting in Keuchel's place in their lineups?

For my 3 Keuchels ... Keuchel, Keuchel, Shelby Miller-2x. Playing with fire.

Yeah Miller is another I have on a couple teams. He is awful!!!! 3 runs already! Here we go again! I'm going to start them all till the seasons over and as of right now I'm going down with the ship but I have no other choice. Or maybe I'm just dumb and stubborn.

[Bjs2025]

Who are people starting in Keuchel's place in their lineups?

For my 3 Keuchels ... Keuchel, Keuchel, Shelby Miller-2x. Playing with fire.

This is the reason I asked, there is no one I'd throw in over Dallas Keuchel, he was a preseason $20ish pitcher in this format, I'm riding this out regardless.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Who are people starting in Keuchel's place in their lineups?

For my 3 Keuchels ... Keuchel, Keuchel, Shelby Miller-2x. Playing with fire.

This is the reason I asked, there is no one I'd throw in over Dallas Keuchel, he was a preseason $20ish pitcher in this format, I'm riding this out regardless.

Why?
We're not playing by past stats.
Pitchers like Keuchel, Wainwright, Gray, Harvey, and Miller were all solid last year.
This is a new year.
I have many shares of Keuchel. Keuchel is on my bench (in most leagues) till he shows a semblance of the pitcher that he was last year.
'Riding out' the bad only deposits stats in our bank that we don't want.
In fantasy, we don't have to run Matt Harvey or Dallas Keuchel every fifth day like real baseball.
And, we won't hurt their feelings if we don't.
Keuchel would have to throw 77 scoreless innings to match his ERA from last year. He just isn't the same fella we thought we were going to get when drafting him.
Whether hiding injury, mechanics, or tipping pitches, Keuchel 2016 is not the same as Keuchel 2015.
Our hopes are pinned on a hot month. Maybe two.
Until then, riding him' every time is the problem. Not the solution.

[KJ Duke]

Who are people starting in Keuchel's place in their lineups?

For my 3 Keuchels ... Keuchel, Keuchel, Shelby Miller-2x. Playing with fire.

This is the reason I asked, there is no one I'd throw in over Dallas Keuchel, he was a preseason $20ish pitcher in this format, I'm riding this out regardless.

I start who looks like my best options for the week. Keuchel was at the bottom of my start list in both places but still better than my next alternatives, in 2 of 3 anyway. He doesn't look like he's completely lost it, just struggling for consistency, so for now I still think he is likely to turn things around. At LAA isn't a bad matchup ... of course if he keeps rolling his CB up there in the middle of the plate it won't matter.