Ron Shandler Chatting Here On Wednesday At 2 PM ET

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:07 am

Re: Reyes/Howard or Rollins/Teixeira

Great question! You make a very good point that it might be better to have a later seed given that Rollins/Teixeira are players with more of a reliable track record than Reyes/Howard. For any first round player, I want someone who has PROVEN they can put up 1st-round-caliber numbers for at least a few years. Reyes and Howard are great talents, but I don't want to risk a 1st round pick that they might regress, even a little bit.

I think I'm caught up now. Yikes! A full page of RON@HQ posts is pretty scary to look at.

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:10 am

Can you handicapp the Cubs bullpen?

Tampa Munchers · Post by **Tampa Munchers** » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:11 am

What would YOUR strategy be with regards to RP's in the NFBC?

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:13 am

Re: Cubs pen

Dempster is the incumbent. Howry and Wuertz have the best skills. Wood is a wild card. Piniella has no idea what he is going to do, so it's a bit too early to really speculate beyond the fact that... Dempster is the incumbent. Howry and Wuertz have the best skills. And Wood is a wild card.

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:16 am

Re: RPs in the NFBC

I think any reasonable 5x5 strategy can work. The facts: Upwards of 40% of the closers rostered on draft day will go belly up before the end of the season. So you have to decide to either blow an early round pick on a low-risk player like Nathan or Ryan, or wait until the later rounds and take some chances. The bottom line though, is closers are pretty much interchangeable commodities after the 10th round.

MY strategy would be to wait until the later rounds.

[ February 14, 2007, 01:19 PM: Message edited by: RON@HQ ]

cribgusto · Post by **cribgusto** » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:18 am

Ron, thanks for your time.

Wilson Betemit shows promise in the Forecaster, but it appears he receives no respect in 2007 mocks.

What about him do you like? Do you expect to adjust his forecast this spring?

Tampa Munchers · Post by **Tampa Munchers** » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:20 am

Ron-

How do you predict numbers for tha Japenese players?

Rotowire is very high on Iwankuri from TB. They have him hitting 290 with 30 hrs.....Is this feasible?

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:22 am

Re: Betemit

I suspect that Betemit is getting no respect in mocks because he's bounced around for awhile and everyone likes well-hyped prospects like LaRoche. I liken LaRoche (situationally, not skills-wise) to BJ Upton. For two years, everyone was so taken with the possibility of Upton's promotion that they kept missing out on the fine seasons Julio Lugo was putting in.

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:26 am

Re: Iwankuri/Iwamura, Potato/Potahto

We do have some MLE translations we use for Japanese stats, and we'll typically add in an adjustment if it appears there will be a cultural transition to consider as well (some guys are already more Americanized than others). I think 30 HRs is a bit optimistic -- we have him down for the high teens. But he might fly under the radar a bit just because he's in Tampa.

[ February 14, 2007, 01:27 PM: Message edited by: RON@HQ ]

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:26 am

Hey Ron, here's one that was posted in the forum for you:

I was wondering what you thought of Cano, what kind of numbers do you think he will put up and when would you grab him?

thanks

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:29 am

Here's one from me Ron: Greg and I seem to be a bit more aggressive regarding Rickie Weeks than others we've seen. Since Greg nor I are huge Brewers fans any longer we can't be accused of homerism here. But what are your thoughts about him? We both think he's a 20-20 guy with quality run-production ability if he can stay healthy. Your thoughts?

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:29 am

Re: Cano

We're pretty bullish on Cano's power, not so much his batting average (I can't type in "not so much" without picturing Borat). We figure he might be good for 20 HRs but his BA should drop a good 30 points from last year.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:31 am

Originally posted by RON@HQ:

Re: Soriano

Hey Greg... I can't remember. Were you the one who invented fire or the wheel? As I recall, I invented green.

In this year's First Pitch Forums, one of the topics will be, "Players whose projections we blew, and what we've learned" and Soriano will be at the top of the list. Bottom line is that his home/road splits in Texas were huge and he was moving from an extreme hitters park to an extreme pitchers park. For us NOT to project a huge decline would have been like moving Vinny Castilla to Coors in the early 1990s and projecting middling numbers. Yes, we got burned by Soriano, and yes, I do think he'll do great in Wrigley, and yes, he's clearly a Top 5 pick, if not Top 3. But no guarantees. If we were able to project these guys with 100% accuracy, I'd be out of a job! Ron, I would like to think I could have done better during those times than inventing something as frivolous as fire or the wheel. I would have invented BEER!!! I mean, the water was right there anyway!!

Here's another one for you: When you had the chance to work with the St. Louis Cardinals for a season, what did you learn about the organization's thoughts about fantasy baseball analysts? Did they view you as someone they put a lot of stock in or did some folks still think of us as "unique" individuals? Do you think MLB's perception of Sabrmetrics and fantasy baseball has changed in the last two decades or is it the same?

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:32 am

Re: Weeks

His wrist woes worry me. I can more easily see 20 SBs than 20 HRs this year. However, he's already shown 20-20 potential; it's just a matter of health, and I don't think we'll see that until 2008.

Tampa Munchers · Post by **Tampa Munchers** » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:33 am

Ryan Garko. If he can get the PT....do you think he can have a breakout year?

cribgusto · Post by **cribgusto** » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:33 am

Ron,

Is there a non-Dan Uggla person you'd identify as the most likely to disappoint?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:33 am

Ron: Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Your projections and reasons why or why not he will succeed this year. He's been going in the Top 100 (82 or so) in offseason drafts, which is "ace" territory. Is he an ace in fantasy baseball as a rookie? Any chance he is Hideo Nomo all over again or Hideki Irabu??

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:33 am

Ron, my personal thought is Alex Rodriguez is going to regain his status as the No. 1 player in fantasy this year. Given how he's typically going in the 3-5 range, that actually makes him a value pick at the top which is pretty much unheard of when you're drafting in that range. Do you concur with my assessment about A-Rod or are you concerned about him in any way?

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:34 am

Ron,

Are you a believer in the "Mazzone" factor? Is there a chance in year 2, that we'll see some improvement in guys like Cabrera, Loewen, and Wright. Or does the AL/NL difference particularly being in the AL East negate any "Mazzone" influence?

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:35 am

Total Control drafting. You say bid within reason.

What would you define as reason.

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:38 am

Re: Beer

Sorry, Greg. Steve Moyer invented beer long before we even knew you could drink water.

Re: Cardinals

For anyone of you who works inside a large corporation, you will already know what the dynamics were like with the Cardinals. Everybody has their opinions and their agendas. Communication is intermittent. You try to go with the flow to figure out where to fit in. And after 25 years, they give you a watch.

The Cardinals brought us on board to say they were part of the "in" group of sabermetrically-savvy ballclubs. They really didn't have a firm plan, and there were always other priorities. The fact that we were "fantasy" analysts was not something they wore on their sleeves. We were just statistical analysts, and frankly, the work we did had little fantasy relevance anyway.

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:40 am

Re: Garko

More hype than substance here. His skills have eroded a little bit at each level he's been promoted to. Don't overvalue based on his small MLB sample.

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:41 am

Re: Non-Uggla disappointment

Chien-Ming Wang

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:43 am

Re: Matsuzaka

When I see him, I think about how we were talking about Felix Hernandez at this time last year. He's clearly a talent, he'll probably do fine, but he will most certainly be drafted at least 2-3 rounds too early or for $5-8 more than he'll be worth.

RON@HQ · Post by **RON@HQ** » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:46 am

Re: A-Rod

Given that I've seen Santana going #1 and Howard going #2 in some drafts (not the same draft - clearly Pujols is always #1 or #2), and Jose Reyes sneaking in there as well, A-Rod is clearly better than any of those options based on track record alone. Look at it this way... Assume draft slot #3... I'd rather know I'm getting a guaranteed 35-40 HRs than take a chance that any of last year's breakout players turn into pumpkins.