Trading Places

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sat Feb 17, 2007 4:41 am

I still think Delgado was the value pick here.Like you said , maybe you could have gotten Guillen later. Guillen also comes with a lot more risk because of his knees, he is one player i will stay away from because he is going to high.I agree Hall was another pick at the 5th round pick one who gives you the power and the position.Todd these are just my opinions , just Gullien is to much risk , when i can have money in the bank Delgado and grab a Sanchez or Drew much later.If i thought Gullien could steal 20 or more bases again then maybe the risk reward factor would go his way , i dont see it.

Potter · Post by **Potter** » Sat Feb 17, 2007 5:15 am

Todd,

Thanks for taking the time to post in here. I am constantly impressed by two things that seem to permeate most all of your offerings. Your adeptness for explaining your thoughts succinctly, and the modest manner in which you present them. Pet peeve of mine is when folks who get paid to write about roto intimate or outright profess their viewpoints are infallable. As if there are no other correct approaches. The more I play this game (of roto and of life), the more obvious it has become there are very few things that I get to be absolutely positive about. And as each season passes, the list gets shorter. To this point, I challenge anyone to get in your time machine and set the clock back to 10 minutes after Main Event 2006. Now look at the what ended being the oa winners roster, and tell me it looks like a winner. He was in my league, and I didn't give it a chance to cash a lg. check, nevermind blow away the field. Heck, I look at it now and it doesn't look like the monster is obviously was.

Anyway Todd, I look forward to reading more of your thoughts, both in here and at your site, as I will be signing up later today. Thank you.

Emmett

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Feb 17, 2007 5:21 am

Eddie -- quick point as the horse has been beaten enough. I agree Guillen was the wrong choice at that time. However, I believe Bill Hall would have worked better for me than Delgado.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Sat Feb 17, 2007 7:38 am

Todd.....

How is your KDS list affected by all of this?

Is #1 pick your first choice?

Or is there more value in other picks?

That 4-5 turn with #1 pick seems to be a tough one in that there might be too many holes to fill with those two picks, and you could make a correct pick at the time, but 28 picks later it could be a problem.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Feb 17, 2007 8:41 am

John -- great question because that is something I have been thinking about. On one hand, Albert is Albert. He is now like ARod circa 2000-2005. He may not be #1, but you know he'll be top-3 if healthy. There is something to be said for that. You get a certain amount of built in profit if he only meets expectation -- call it the LT2 effect -- as the difference in value between consecutive players is not linear until round 4 or so. However, there is a certain someone I like that ADP suggests I can get about 6 and I have ranked higher and another several players ADP says I can get about 11 and I have ranked higher. I'll go on record now as saying anyone who drafts Wright, Utley or Howard in front of me is doing me a HUGE favor. So my dilemma is which do I like most

a. Pujols

b. the 6 hole to get >

c. the 11 hole to get one of several sliders

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Sat Feb 17, 2007 8:46 am

I talked to Todd, Eddie and John on the phone this week and all three said the same thing: "I'm struggling to determine what my KDS is going to be this year." I know Todd still likes 1 first, but then it changes a lot after that. John has some ideas for the middle and I know Eddie is all over the board.

Anyone else struggling with the same list?

I thought so.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Sat Feb 17, 2007 9:12 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

John -- great question because that is something I have been thinking about. On one hand, Albert is Albert. He is now like ARod circa 2000-2005. He may not be #1, but you know he'll be top-3 if healthy. There is something to be said for that. You get a certain amount of built in profit if he only meets expectation -- call it the LT2 effect -- as the difference in value between consecutive players is not linear until round 4 or so. However, there is a certain someone I like that ADP suggests I can get about 6 and I have ranked higher and another several players ADP says I can get about 11 and I have ranked higher. I'll go on record now as saying anyone who drafts Wright, Utley or Howard in front of me is doing me a HUGE favor. So my dilemma is which do I like most

a. Pujols

b. the 6 hole to get >

c. the 11 hole to get one of several sliders I changed mine to 1-6-11 last night...

I'm even thinking of going 1-3-6-11... I don't have a problem taking your #6 at #3.... just so I can plan a little better 2/3 and 4/5.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Feb 17, 2007 10:47 am

My problem is a lot of people might take the guy I would look for at 6 at 3, so if I put 6 I might get screwed and have to take someone at value. If I put 3, then I'll get the guy but possibly lose out on the return pick.

That's why 9 to 11 is appealing.

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Sat Feb 17, 2007 12:11 pm

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote: I see it the same way at 260ish. I don't see why you can't take Delgado. I understand you had Pujols and like Shealy, but you can have 1 at 1b another at cn and the other at ut. I had 3 1b's last year and it does prevent you from making all the moves you want (I couldn't bench Tex, Morneau, or Giambi till late) but production is production. Get what you can when you can. Let's take the actual players out of the equation for a minute and concentrate on the very last statement but production is production. Get what you can when you can.

I disagree with both the first part and the last part.

Production is not production. Not all of a player's production is useful. The useful part is that which not everyone has. I liken this to picking football winners. If everyone in your pool has San Diego beating Houston, then it doesn't matter if the Chargers cover or the Texans pull the upset as everyone gets the same win or loss. The game was not useful in determining the weekly champion. Same thing here. Not all of two player's stats are useful -- you need to compare them against the baseline at their respective positions.

Let's say we have a 2-man HR derby league in which we each draft a catcher and an outfielder. Here is the available pool:

OF1 - 35 HR

OF2 - 30 HR

C1 - 25 HR

C2- 15 HR

You have first pick, who do you take? Production is production, right? You must take OF1 because he'll hit the most HR. I'll take C1. That leaves you C2 for a total of 50 HR, I get OF2 for a total of 55. The USEFUL HR are really

OF1 - 5 HR

OF2 - 0 HR

C1 - 10 HR

C2- 0 HR

Withe respect to the take it while you can statement, the goal here is profit. Locking up my second 1B in this round hinders my ability to make profit later. My personal analysis suggests I can get a cornerman at a couple of rounds profit later in the draft. OK, so I do it and fill my UT then as suggested. Now I take away the chance to get profit from my UT at the end of the draft. It is all about tiers of value and comparing against the ADP. You need to be able to maximize your profit and that often means having available roster spots to take advantage.

Now let's throw Delgado and Guillen back in. When I compare them to their positional baseline, I have Guilen as a more valuable player than Delgado. This is a point some may contend otherwise. I prefer to do my comparison numerically and not anecdotally and my numbers had Guillen better. The issue, however, is his primary contribution was batting average, which I did not need considering I took Pujols and Ichiro early. Looking back over the draft, Bill Hall would have been a better choice as I needed his pop and could absorb his lower batting average. [/QUOTE]I don't dispute your contention here for the most part. Anybody that may have looked at my drafts will see the same thing. I often pass the better player, possibly a 1b as in this case, to take another player at either a short position or to get another catagory that may serve my team better in the long run. It IS how your team looks in the end as opposed to always taking the best or most value player at every junction. When I took Jeter in the mag draft at pick 16 (which I wouldn't do again), I did it because of position scarcity and to get steals and ba which I thought I would need later having a general idea of who I would take where and who would be availble when. For me it's a matter of how much I'm sacrificing now in hopes that I can get what I want/need later. If for instance you took Pujols and let's imagine Pujols had a twin brother that would put up the exact same stats, I'm assuming you wouldn't pass on taking the Pujols clone, later in the draft just because you had 1 already. you'd take him and then work around 2 1b's that don't steal much later. I'm not saying Delgado is a Pujols clone, just making a hypothetical example of how it can be taken too far. Otherwise, I am doing the same thing you are. And sometimes production can be production. It's getting to the numbers you need to get too. It doesn't matter how you get there as long as you can make it work.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sat Feb 17, 2007 12:14 pm

i don't play trading leagues anymore. too much BS to put up with

AmericanDreams · Post by **AmericanDreams** » Sun Feb 18, 2007 7:51 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

Actually, my observation has been pitchers and catchers are both being drafted earlier than normal. Todd, do you think this is optimal given the depth of pitching talent this year?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Feb 18, 2007 9:19 am

Todd, do you think this is optimal given the depth of pitching talent this year? I think the shrewd drafter can really take advantage of this if they can catch the run at the end.

So optimal for someone if they stay disciplined and still wait and get a solid pitcher near the end of the run? Absolutely

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sun Feb 18, 2007 11:01 am

Todd in both drafts ive been in , one with you the Shawn Childs Classic, pitching seems to be going much earlier than last year.Because of this im going to have to go a round earlier to get the guys i like . Its amazing seeing pitchers going in the 6th ,and 7th round that i have down for the 8th or even 9th round.Im in two more mock money drafts and cant wait to see if this is the norm.