Alex Rodriguez: The 2007 Baseball Equivalent Of LaDainian Tomlinson?

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Feb 15, 2007 3:48 am

In fantasy football this year, LaDainian Tomlinson represented that most rare of draft picks - a Top 3 pick who represented huge Draft Day value.

Why?

Simple. LT had the potential to be the No. 1 player in fantasy this past season and yet he was rarely taken with the top pick. He typically went 2nd or 3rd in most drafts in 2006 - his ADP in the NFFC was 2.04.

So what transpired? Tomlinson went on to be the most dominant player in fantasy by a large margin, providing the owners who drafted him second or third with not only a dominant player but a major Draft Day coup as well.

Can Alex Rodriguez do the same? I believe he can. He is coming off a .290-35-121-15 season which is a "down" season by his standards. Because of that, he has slipped off the top perch in fantasy drafts and now can be found a bit later in the upper portion of the first round. According to the most current ADP data on Mock Draft Central, Rodriguez is ranked 5th in 5x5 Mixed League drafts.

To me, that represents a huge value pick which is something you typically do not expect to get with a Top 5 pick. You expect a stud player there and A-Rod certainly qualifies but he also has the potential to be the No. 1 player in fantasy this season. And that means if you get him with the fourth or fifth pick, you're ahead of the game potentially when it comes to building your team.

This is a player who has averaged .299-40-119-21 in the past three seasons. His .290-35-121-15 season last year (with 113 runs scored) would be a career year for most players. And yet for A-Rod, that represented a "down" season.

What's not to like about that? He's proven. He's a major talent and you don't have to have the No. 1 or even the No. 2 or No. 3 pick in the draft to be assured of getting him. To me, that represents huge value and that's why I consider A-Rod to be a value pick despite his lofty status in the first round of every draft this season.

He is the baseball equivalent of LaDainian Tomlinson in 2007.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Apr 11, 2007 7:36 am

So far this season after 7 games:

.357

6 HRs

15 RBIs

1 SB

On pace for:

139 HRs

347 RBIs

23 SBs

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Wed Apr 11, 2007 7:39 am

Great call, Tom. The only question that remains: will he break LT2's touchdown record?

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Apr 11, 2007 7:40 am

I think he may fall a bit short of the HR and RBIs he's on pace for.

mdz129 · Post by **mdz129** » Wed Apr 11, 2007 8:41 am

Tom,

LT is SOOO much more valuable to a fantasy football team then AROD is to a fantasy baseball team.

why?

LT averaged about 28 pts per game out of the high week average of 130 pts or 21.4% of a winning teams average points.

AROD at 50 hrs (15% of winning average), 120 runs( 10% of winning average), 150 rbi ( 12.5% of winning average), 20 SB's ( 12%) and .300 (slight help to .287 average) and ZERO help in PITCHING. AROD only helps in 50% of the fantasy team, hence just because you have AROD you can finish in the middle of the pack.

IF you drafted LT and didn't finish 1,2, or 3...then spend next Labor Day weekend at the beach!

Just a thought

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Apr 11, 2007 8:46 am

It's two different sports so yes I agree a dominant football player can impact your fantasy team more. However, my primary point here was that - like LT - A-Rod represented an opportunity to get the No. 1 player in fantasy without having to use the No. 1 pick to get him. So that makes him a rarity in fantasy sports - a huge value pick in the upper portion of the first round.

Winning a fantasy title is all about getting talent but also getting talent which outperforms its draft position. If A-Rod meets the requirements I'm talking about he'll do just that, which means your team's foundation has begun with a strong value pick. And that's a terrific place to start out.

I think A-Rod should have gone Top 3 in every draft this season. However, the fact is he didn't. I got him 6th in one of my Expert leagues which I consider to be absurd value for a player of his talent.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Wed Apr 11, 2007 9:05 am

Tom, I think you are at least five months premature with this question.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Apr 11, 2007 9:09 am

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

Tom, I think you are at least five months premature with this question. Well I wrote the column in February and I just felt like bumping it up since A-Rod is off to a hot start.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Wed Apr 11, 2007 9:13 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:

So far this season after 7 games:

.357

6 HRs

15 RBIs

1 SB

On pace for:

139 HRs

347 RBIs

23 SBs

What's all the fuss about?

Sizemore

3 hr, 4 rbi, 3 sb, .375, 7 runs

On pace for:

HR: 121

RBI:162

SB: 121

RUNS: 283

AVG: .375

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Apr 11, 2007 9:14 am

How many leagues do you have Sizemore in, John? You and Greg have him in your LABR league, right?

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Wed Apr 11, 2007 9:17 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:

How many leagues do you have Sizemore in, John? You and Greg have him in your LABR league, right? Two of 13. Main and LABR.

Made someone pay $39 in my local AL league

[ April 11, 2007, 03:18 PM: Message edited by: UFS ]

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Apr 11, 2007 9:36 am

It could be the fact that I'm drinking early today due to rain and and no work scheduled...or it's simply the rebel in me...but I smell a bet coming on.

I'm considering a bet that Ryan Howard out performes Alex Rodriguez in 3 of the 5 hitting categories.

My guess...

SB...Alex

AVG...up for grabs

HR...Ryan

R...up for grabs

RBI...Ryan

Not willing to bet yet...but we'll see how this early drinking day pans out! Any interest...straight bet.

~Lance

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Wed Apr 11, 2007 9:58 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

It could be the fact that I'm drinking early today due to rain and and no work scheduled...or it's simply the rebel in me...but I smell a bet coming on.

I'm considering a bet that Ryan Howard out performes Alex Rodriguez in 3 of the 5 hitting categories.

My guess...

SB...Alex

AVG...up for grabs

HR...Ryan

R...up for grabs

RBI...Ryan

Not willing to bet yet...but we'll see how this early drinking day pans out! Any interest...straight bet.

~Lance I'll take Alex, lmk your stakes.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Wed Apr 11, 2007 10:09 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

It could be the fact that I'm drinking early today due to rain and and no work scheduled...or it's simply the rebel in me...but I smell a bet coming on.

I'm considering a bet that Ryan Howard out performes Alex Rodriguez in 3 of the 5 hitting categories.

My guess...

SB...Alex

AVG...up for grabs

HR...Ryan

R...up for grabs

RBI...Ryan

Not willing to bet yet...but we'll see how this early drinking day pans out! Any interest...straight bet.

~Lance I'm game ! Have another brew on me Lance, I'm buying (deduct from my winnings !)

Q

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Apr 11, 2007 10:19 am

Bet is full...KJ and Q.

I'll not risk anymore on this...but there will be more to come!

~Lance

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Apr 11, 2007 10:30 am

Side note...injuries will not void bet.

(I hate voided bets.)

~Lance

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Wed Apr 11, 2007 11:32 am

done, PM'd confirm

Going off my pre-season projections, I'm looking for ...

A-Rod ..... 295 38-15 125-148

Howard ... 295 44-00 125-132

... so a push in two categories, A-Rod wins SB and RBI, while Howard takes HRs. Hopefully they both have a full season to make it a race down to the wire.

[ April 11, 2007, 05:44 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]