2017 Batting Targets

[Edwards Kings]

So, of the five batting categories, only one fell in line with last year. My estimates on getting 80% of points available in the Overall Main Event for Batting Categories, BA is up (2015 0.2697, 2016 0.2726 or about 20 hits), Runs are up (2015 1,009, 2016 1,090 or about two weeks worth), HR up (2015 265, 2016 310 or about four weeks worth), and RBI are up (2015 975, 2016 1,060 or about two weeks worth). SB is about the same.

Anomalous or indicative of a trend reversal? How will this impact your planning (another power hitter instead of a pitcher, etc.) for 2017 (and don't lie to me, I know you are already making plans)?

Accept this as a break in sticking pins in the knees and elbows of your Colin Kaepernick voodoo doll.

[Rainiers]

So, of the five batting categories, only one fell in line with last year. My estimates on getting 80% of points available in the Overall Main Event for Batting Categories, BA is up (2015 0.2697, 2016 0.2726 or about 20 hits), Runs are up (2015 1,009, 2016 1,090 or about two weeks worth), HR up (2015 265, 2016 310 or about four weeks worth), and RBI are up (2015 975, 2016 1,060 or about two weeks worth). SB is about the same.

Anomalous or indicative of a trend reversal? How will this impact your planning (another power hitter instead of a pitcher, etc.) for 2017 (and don't lie to me, I know you are already making plans)?

Accept this as a break in sticking pins in the knees and elbows of your Colin Kaepernick voodoo doll.

For sure its a trend. A noticeable shift occurred during the second half of 2015's season, probably having to do with the baseball. The 2016 season confirms, for me, that its probably here to stay for a while.

What it means for me is that guys that steal bases will have a little more value as compared to players who don't. This is the opposite of what you are suggesting above, I think. But by way of example, if SBs are harder to come by now relative to HRs, then the relative value of a Billy Hamilton has actually gone up, not down. This assumes you bake in increased home run production for all your 2017 projections as I will do.

As far as voodoo dolls go, all of them are busy doing much more important things than CP. As in water torture for all my NFBC opponents' key players. Not working too well at the moment, but can't afford to break away...

[Deadheadz]

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And what if they stop using juiced baseballs in 2017?



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[Edwards Kings]

What it means for me is that guys that steal bases will have a little more value as compared to players who don't. This is the opposite of what you are suggesting above, I think.

Not really. I guess I am implying that SB appears to be no more or no less of a tool used by MLB teams than it has been over the last few years. Whatever emphasis you (or I) place on SB or "value" assigned to SB-heavy types should, in essence, not change. If you shot for 150 SB this year in order to get minimum points, you should perhaps do so again. There does not appear to be any greater reliance on SB by MLB teams (i.e. no real change in strategy is obvious nor is there any new crop of speedsters with full time jobs which could tip the balance). It (SB) appears to be the one constant year over year.

This assumes you bake in increased home run production for all your 2017 projections as I will do.

This is the crux. Since this appears to be shaping up into the "Decade of the Pitcher" with lower ERA's, lower WHIPS, and highers K's than the early half or more of the NFBC Main legacy, we have seemingly placed more emphasis on pitching. In order to compete in HR (assuming this marks a period of increased HR production), do we temper that Big Arms drafting strategy in order to jump on that extra big bat? If so, with a finite number premium draft picks available, what do you sacrifice? Wait on the closer? Draft "late" speed (if it exists)? Delay that 1st, 2nd, or 3rd SP? Scrap heap catchers?

Every year we tweak based on our perceptions of availability and opportunity. If you buy into the rebirth of the HR, the "tweaks" this year could be relatively seismic.

[Edwards Kings]

.And what if they stop using juiced baseballs in 2017?

Good Point. It could happen.

I spoke with the president of Rawlings, Mr. Presley Aaron (who tells me he turned 81 last January 8th). Rawlings, founded in 1887, has had an exclusive contract to supply the major leagues with baseballs since 1977. Mr. Aaron says the Costa Rica plant makes and sells about 1.8 million baseballs a year to the majors. A Dallas middleman, Grassy Knoll Inc. actually takes possession of the baseballs. Head of Operations at GNI, Mr. D. B. Cooper, says the baseballs are amended according to MLB specific annually changing specifications by drop shipping them to an area (Three by Seventeen Enterprises) which is located about 83 miles (134 km) north-northwest of Las Vegas. There, the baseballs are soaked in Miller Lite Beer (makes them less filling). The baseballs are then distributed to each MLB park via a specialized climate controlled train, the New York Central "City of Albany".

[Deadheadz]

I spoke with the president of Rawlings, Mr. Presley Aaron (who tells me he turned 81 last January 8th). Rawlings, founded in 1887, has had an exclusive contract to supply the major leagues with baseballs since 1977. Mr. Aaron says the Costa Rica plant makes and sells about 1.8 million baseballs a year to the majors. A Dallas middleman, Grassy Knoll Inc. actually takes possession of the baseballs. Head of Operations at GNI, Mr. D. B. Cooper, says the baseballs are amended according to MLB specific annually changing specifications by drop shipping them to an area (Three by Seventeen Enterprises) which is located about 83 miles (134 km) north-northwest of Las Vegas. There, the baseballs are soaked in Miller Lite Beer (makes them less filling). The baseballs are then distributed to each MLB park via a specialized climate controlled train, the New York Central "City of Albany".

This is very informative.

When others have discussed "juiced balls" it just seemed obvious to me they meant the baseballs had links to BalloGenesis.
Thanks for clearing that up for me.

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[headhunters]

the drafting thingy hasn't changed- just draft the guys that will hit the most homers and drive in and score the most runs along with a high batting average.- easy

[Rainiers]

DB Cooper would astutely point out that the effect of dropping 1.8 balls out of the back of a 727 at an altitude of 7,400 ft did not result in all things being equal for all home run hitters. It helped average hitters more. Hence the standard deviation for HRs for fantasy-relevant home run hitters has actually shrunk while the average number of dingers per hitter has gone up. Or as DB has convinced me by saying, "When the average bloke can hit more home runs now, why bother with drafting a big bopper? Save your dough and spend it elsewhere"