Quantifying the Unquantifiables

[fwicker]

I've been doing fantasy for a long time now with decent, not noteworthy, results. I love playing for both bragging rights and big payouts, but I realize now that I really enjoy the process, preparation, analysis, strategy, tactics and gamesmanship involved in this pastime as much as the payouts.

If I spent as much time analyzing my stock portfolio as I spend on FBB I'd be wealthy.

One of the allures of this passtime for me is adding and refining prediction criteria for player and team performance in order to form and cultivate a winning team. With relevant detailed statistics just a few key-clicks away I'm fascinated by those things that affect performance or value that are not yet quantified or - unquantifiable. I'll list some below and would love to hear others:

- Number one on my list is position flexibility. It may be subjectively considered in some valuations but I suspect with little rigor. Flexibility contributes in two ways: during the draft (if you draft a starter who plays 2B/SS your subsequent draft targets for MI are double what they would be if you had drafted a 2B or SS ONLY); and during the season flexibility can have a huge impact when injuries hit, there's a key FAAB target, a farm player is called up, etc. Quantification of flexibility is understandably elusive given the variables: the number of eligible positions; which positions (e.g. A 2B/SS may be more valuable than a1B/OF); intrinsic value of the player as a multiplier; and alternate positions for which the player will quickly become eligible ( player comes up as a 2B only but is slated to play SS during the season).

- Injury impact. And I'm on thin ice on this one as I don't have anything more than a gut feeling: a pitcher struggles for 5-6 starts and eventually goes on the DL saying he tweaked his elbow two starts before. A valuation approach may discount poor stats for the period of reported discomfort where in fact he had 6 starts of compromised performance. Maybe advanced stats from Pitch/FX or the like would feed a subsequent years projection discounting the 6 starts he was affected based on velocity, spin rate, pitch selection, etc? My impression is that the projections are based purely on stats (and of course it's our job as fantasy players to take mitigating factors into account).

- Other potentially unquantified factors that come to mind are: hidden value of being on winning/losing teams (e.g. Lost playing time near the end of the season whilst teams are trying out farm hands); when to add/drop players (how long to stay with a struggling starter).

I'm sure there are plenty of others?