Somewhat political post, non baseball

[headhunters]

Edward kings- will reply to all your points- never attacking you- just the state of your republican party. if you are now independent- great. but it must be recent because in the 5 or so years I have read your posts you have been a relentless defender of all things republican. one question: in your meticulous numerical representation of debt vs gdp you stated (I believe) that in 2014 it was 102% . I just watched the debate and the final 15 minute segment was devoted to the debt (sadly 1 out of 18 15 minute segments were devoted to this topic- it should have been about 20 out of 18 in my opinion). In that segment Wallace said "the debt sits at 77% of gdp" Neither Hilary or trump disputed that %. my question is - is it now 77% meaning it has gone from 102% to 77% in 2 years? OR are both political parties and the people running the debates incorrect? I guess I want to know where your math is coming from. I actually hope you are right. on guns btw- we just disagree. the rest of the free world is without them and thinks we are a bunch of thugs because of it and I believe the "right to bear arms" referred to militia- not assault rifles, but I will gladly give up on this point. it is pretty far down the list of problems we have.

[Edwards Kings]

True. As I stated, I have considered myself Republican for most of my adult life, but they have screwed up so bad, I consider myself an independent. I am fiscally conservative (honestly) and socially moderate. Part of the shift was taking the time to listen and learn from my newly adult children. Not that they were necessarily right, but they gave me some new perspective to challenge what was becoming some entrenched views. And yes, for most of the period from my birth (during the Kennedy Administration) to now I believe we were better served by Republican Administrations and Congress. Another argument perhaps, but there it is.

On guns, if the American people want to amend the Constitution, fine. We have a process for that. I object to the chipping away of Rights via Executive Order, regulation and legislation. But I hear what you say. But guns, IMHO, are used a a banner without addressing the underlying causes. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) has a site called Global Study on Homicide. The US murder rate is 3.9 per 100,000 people, 108th in the world. As a region, Europe is 3.0 and Oceania as well. So there is a difference, but perhaps not as much as represented by the talking heads. I think more gun laws attack the issue the same way a law targeting drunk drivers having instead the impact of making it tougher for sober ones to drive.

In 2016, the number I heard on the United States public debt-to-GDP ratio in 2016 was estimated at 71.8%. But I think they were misleading last night. The ratio is 104.5% when you include external debt (and why wouldn't you). BTW the number typically used for the National Debt does not include the IOU's to the Social Security Trust.

Yes. I agree old friend. We are screwed.

[TOXIC ASSETS]

somewhere in all these posts someone wrote about the blue states and lumped Illinois in with new York and California. just fyi to that person: Illinois has a republican governor.

From 1992 to 2012, 19 States have voted for every Democratic candidate for President (six national elections in a row).

California
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Hawaii
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
New Jersey
New York
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin

Red or Blue. You be the judge.

Good stuff.
Anyone care to bet that the Queen Bitch runs the table on all 19 of these, this time around?

[Edwards Kings]

I will add to the list probably New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Iowa (each having voted Democrat five of the last six elections). 18 states have voted Republican at least five of the last six elections (13 having done it all six). Add to that list Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia as more than likely voting Republican (last four elections).

With the Electoral College lead Secretary Clinton has with the solidly Democratic states (California, New York, Illinois and Pennsylvania alone make up nearly 46% of the necessary Electoral votes necessary), Donald Trump will probably have to sweep the rest (Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, and Nevada) in order to (shudder) take the White House.

Of course, the fact we have two such unsavory candidates, anything is possible.

As an aside, the only states to vote for the winner the last six elections? Nevada and Ohio.

And I only go back the last six because Reagan 1, Reagan 2, and Bush 1 were such overwhelming landslides...to the point people were talking about the death of the Democratic Party...sound familiar?

[King of Queens]

Such a nasty puppet

[Teufel Hunden]

I can't attest to the veracity of most of statements made in this thread. You guys are conversing at a level much higher than my capabilities. But one thing I can confirm is that Wayne is a fiscal conservative.

At least years auction he actually saved $20 from his $260 to use elsewhere. Not sure what he did with the money, but if he had turned it over to KJ I am fairly confident he would have at least $22 by now. I will be curious to see if he practices the same fiscal restraint at 2017 auctions.

[Edwards Kings]

I can't attest to the veracity of most of statements made in this thread. You guys are conversing at a level much higher than my capabilities. But one thing I can confirm is that Wayne is a fiscal conservative.

At least years auction he actually saved $20 from his $260 to use elsewhere. Not sure what he did with the money, but if he had turned it over to KJ I am fairly confident he would have at least $22 by now. I will be curious to see if he practices the same fiscal restraint at 2017 auctions.

Oh man...I am STILL sore about that! What a self-induced foul up. Nope, for the season coming up, I will be the "Count de Money"!

[Bjs2025]

True. As I stated, I have considered myself Republican for most of my adult life, but they have screwed up so bad, I consider myself an independent. I am fiscally conservative (honestly) and socially moderate. Part of the shift was taking the time to listen and learn from my newly adult children. Not that they were necessarily right, but they gave me some new perspective to challenge what was becoming some entrenched views. And yes, for most of the period from my birth (during the Kennedy Administration) to now I believe we were better served by Republican Administrations and Congress. Another argument perhaps, but there it is.

On guns, if the American people want to amend the Constitution, fine. We have a process for that. I object to the chipping away of Rights via Executive Order, regulation and legislation. But I hear what you say. But guns, IMHO, are used a a banner without addressing the underlying causes. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) has a site called Global Study on Homicide. The US murder rate is 3.9 per 100,000 people, 108th in the world. As a region, Europe is 3.0 and Oceania as well. So there is a difference, but perhaps not as much as represented by the talking heads. I think more gun laws attack the issue the same way a law targeting drunk drivers having instead the impact of making it tougher for sober ones to drive.

In 2016, the number I heard on the United States public debt-to-GDP ratio in 2016 was estimated at 71.8%. But I think they were misleading last night. The ratio is 104.5% when you include external debt (and why wouldn't you). BTW the number typically used for the National Debt does not include the IOU's to the Social Security Trust.

Yes. I agree old friend. We are screwed.

So out of curiosity, are you voting for Gary Johnson? Or eating the crap sandwich or not voting at all?

[Edwards Kings]

True. As I stated, I have considered myself Republican for most of my adult life, but they have screwed up so bad, I consider myself an independent. I am fiscally conservative (honestly) and socially moderate. Part of the shift was taking the time to listen and learn from my newly adult children. Not that they were necessarily right, but they gave me some new perspective to challenge what was becoming some entrenched views. And yes, for most of the period from my birth (during the Kennedy Administration) to now I believe we were better served by Republican Administrations and Congress. Another argument perhaps, but there it is.

On guns, if the American people want to amend the Constitution, fine. We have a process for that. I object to the chipping away of Rights via Executive Order, regulation and legislation. But I hear what you say. But guns, IMHO, are used a a banner without addressing the underlying causes. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) has a site called Global Study on Homicide. The US murder rate is 3.9 per 100,000 people, 108th in the world. As a region, Europe is 3.0 and Oceania as well. So there is a difference, but perhaps not as much as represented by the talking heads. I think more gun laws attack the issue the same way a law targeting drunk drivers having instead the impact of making it tougher for sober ones to drive.

In 2016, the number I heard on the United States public debt-to-GDP ratio in 2016 was estimated at 71.8%. But I think they were misleading last night. The ratio is 104.5% when you include external debt (and why wouldn't you). BTW the number typically used for the National Debt does not include the IOU's to the Social Security Trust.

Yes. I agree old friend. We are screwed.

So out of curiosity, are you voting for Gary Johnson? Or eating the crap sandwich or not voting at all?

However, after the election, the buffet will be..

[DOUGHBOYS]

I tried.
I really did.
I tried to watch the debate last night.
Unfortunately, as soon as both candidates started talking, I lost interest.
My mind started to wander and I wasn't listening to these two people who may lead the free world, as much as watching them.
Then, it struck me.
It struck me in how much Hillary looked like a minion fron 'Despicable Me'.
Short of stature, fake smile, you know.
And Donald with his streaming hair looking like an Oompa Loompa from 'Willie Wonka and the Chocolate Factory'.
With their voices in the background, I wondered who would win a fight between a minion and an oompa loompa.
Then smirked and thought that like us with this election, nobody would win.

I kept watching, like I used to watch my Mom and Dad shout at each other.
And thought to myself, if somebody from the sports world were to run for President, who would I vote for....

First, my candidate would have to have a little larceny in his heart. A characteristic that our two real candidates are way OVERqualified for. Although, the Honest Abe days are so 1800's. We need a not-so Honest Abe.
So, that let's out Tim Tebow.

Second, my candidate would have to be a leader. Our two real candidates are like Brutus and Olive Oyl. Taking leadership from either seems unreal. Our sports guy would have to have a record of leadership. A resume of winning.
That excuses anybody associated with the Colorado Rockies or Milwaukee Brewers.

Third, we want our candidate to be results driven. Do the right thing to win. Work at the job from the bottom up, knowing everything about that job.
Our two candidates fall woefully short of that. Donald born into money. Hillary married (in)to politics.
We need a guy who has been through every nuance of the job, not take short cuts.
And that lets out Yasiel Puig.

So, I give you our candidate.
From the Sports Party.....
Bill Bellicheck
Yeah, I would vote for him over these two....

And still as I watched without listening, I thought about how trapped we are.
We didn't ask for these two candidates.
And we didn't ask for those who got beat in the primaries.
We the People, have become a pretty playboy bunny under the wrinkled old body of Hugh Hefner.
We're getting screwed.
We're not enjoying it.
No matter whether we look left or right, it's ugly.
I turned off the debate and thought maybe we're not like her.
She is looking for a possible reward later.
We get none.
But for now, we are thinking alike....
We can't wait till........

IT'S OVER!

[NorCalAtlFan]

dan, the massholes(sorry childs and zola ) are already intolerable

#hillary16and20

[KJ Duke]

In 2016, the number I heard on the United States public debt-to-GDP ratio in 2016 was estimated at 71.8%. But I think they were misleading last night. The ratio is 104.5% when you include external debt (and why wouldn't you). BTW the number typically used for the National Debt does not include the IOU's to the Social Security Trust.

The larger 100%+ number is gross debt which includes intra-govt debt held by various agencies. That should be excluded as it disappears on a net basis on the balance sheet. However, as you mention the figures exclude underfunded liabilities for SS, Medicare, etc, so both the debt and annual deficits are understated.

[KJ Duke]

I present my write-in protest candidate. This is the candidate we deserve.

Jon Huntsman
Huntsman sought to establish himself as an anti-negative candidate and take the "high road". In his announcement (as a 2012 candidate), he also stated "I don't think you need to run down someone's reputation in order to run for the office of president". Huntsman aggressively touted himself as a fiscal conservative, pledging considerable business and personal tax cuts as well as a foreign policy moderate, calling for a decrease in defense spending and withdrawal from Afghanistan, while increasing pressure on Iran and support for Israel.

Huntsman has been described as "a conservative technocrat-optimist with moderate positions". As Governor, Huntsman listed economic development, health-care reform, education, and energy security as his top priorities. Huntsman oversaw large tax cuts and advocated reorganizing the way that services were distributed so that the government would not become overwhelmed by the state's fast growing population. Huntsman also proposed a plan to reform health-care, mainly through the private sector, by using tax breaks and negotiation to keep prices down.

In a 2008 evaluation of state Governors' fiscal policies, the libertarian Cato Institute praised Huntsman's conservative tax policies, ranking him in a tie for fifth place on overall fiscal policy. He was particularly lauded for his efforts to cut taxes, where he received the highest score on tax policy of all 50 governors. The report specifically highlighted his reductions of the sales tax and simplification of the tax code.

Huntsman strongly supported civil unions for years and supported legislation as Governor that would have allowed civil unions for same-sex couples in the state. In 2007, in response to the problem of global warming, Huntsman signed the Western Climate Initiative, by which Utah joined with other governments in agreeing to pursue targets for reduced production of greenhouse gases.

On foreign policy, Huntsman has repeatedly stated: "We need to continue working closely with China to convince North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program." He has also named Taiwan, human rights, and Tibet among the "areas where we have differences with China" and vowed "robust engagement" on human rights.

On August 31, Huntsman made a major policy announcement, calling for, amongst other things such as more aggressive action on completing free trade agreements, a tax policy modeled on the Simpson-Bowles plan, specifically: elimination of the Alternative Minimum Tax, elimination of taxes on capital gains and dividends, elimination of all deductions and credits, in favor of significantly lower general rates, with brackets of 8, 14 and 23 percent, and lowering the general corporate rate from 35 to 25%.

A little something for everyone in there to represent a broad spectrum of American opinions ... and infinitely better and more qualified than all other options on the table.

[Edwards Kings]

In 2016, the number I heard on the United States public debt-to-GDP ratio in 2016 was estimated at 71.8%. But I think they were misleading last night. The ratio is 104.5% when you include external debt (and why wouldn't you). BTW the number typically used for the National Debt does not include the IOU's to the Social Security Trust.

The larger 100%+ number is gross debt which includes intra-govt debt held by various agencies. That should be excluded as it disappears on a net basis on the balance sheet. However, as you mention the figures exclude underfunded liabilities for SS, Medicare, etc, so both the debt and annual deficits are understated.

From the US Department of the Treasury:

"The term national debt refers to direct liabilities of the United States Government. There are several different concepts of debt that are at various times used to refer to the national debt:

Public debt is defined as public debt securities issued by the U.S. Treasury. U. S. Treasury securities primarily consist of marketable Treasury securities (i.e., bills, notes and bonds), savings bonds and special securities issued to state and local governments. A portion is debt held by the public and a portion is debt held by government accounts.

Debt held by the public excludes the portion of the debt that is held by government accounts.

Gross federal debt is made up of public debt securities and a small amount of securities issued by government agencies."

So the Debt to GDP of 71.8% is based on the "debt held by the public" and the 104.5% is based on "public debt"? So the delta is primarily "special securities issued to state and local governments"?

In any regard, the progression I showed prior and noted in this post was consistent.

[KJ Duke]

So the Debt to GDP of 71.8% is based on the "debt held by the public" and the 104.5% is based on "public debt"? So the delta is primarily "special securities issued to state and local governments"?

I believe it is Federal intra- debt, such as securities held by the soc sec admin, etc, which are excluded. Don't think securities held by State govt are considered intra-govt. If they are, it's probably a small portion of excluded amount. Regardless, it's at record levels and keeps going up because we spend too much and growth is abysmal.

[KJ Duke]

As of Sep 30,

gross debt: $19.6 T
public debt: $14.1 T

Of the $5.5 trillion difference, more than 90% of it are Treasury securities held in Federal retirement trust funds - mostly soc sec, civil service and military retirement funds. Most of the rest are securities held in trusts by other Fed agencies for future spending. Current GDP is around $18.4 T, so we're at 77% debt/gdp.

[Edwards Kings]

Thanks!

[Gekko]

i simply want an honest man/woman who will balance the budget and pay down the debt. Too much to ask I guess

[COZ]

i simply want an honest man/woman who will balance the budget and pay down the debt. Too much to ask I guess

And too much apparently to ask that they not lie, deceive, or commit felonies while in office....

And the BOMBSHELL just dropped....it goes all the way to the top...Obama used a secret email like Hillary which means the President & Secretary of State committed felonies in the mishandling of classified information. Hillary lied under oath about it. Which means the 33,000 emails were deleted to protect Obama, which means the FBI did not "recommend" prosecution against the wishes of its agents because Obama committed the same criminal act as Hillary, which means the Director of the FBI & the Department of Justice covered this up to protect the President. Not to mention he lied (to a reporter, not under oath) by claiming he was unaware of Hillary's private server and private email. And this is without even having the full content of what is contained within the emails....presumably nothing more than emails about Yoga & Chelsea's wedding, I'm sure. Doesn't get any bigger than this people: Your President & Secretary of State have committed felonies that other people have gone to prison for and the Director of the FBI & the Department of Justice covered it up.......

But, but....Trump.

https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/789188917736071169

[COZ]

https://youtu.be/P2wLeNit_5c

[cfolson]

If only it was that easy.

Arguing that the government is the problem here has been proven false over and over.

... aaannndd we have a new leader for most outrageous statement. I could go industry by industry detailing one failure after another. Or you could just read about one of 300,000 books on the subject. No clue what you mean, but bad gov't can be traced to virtually every major economic and social problem.

LOL. Your statement is much more outrageous than mine. Government "can be traced to virtually every major economic and social problem"?? This is not supported by the majority of academics in any field (honestly, they are probably about as common as the scientists who don't agree with climate change). Sure you can find crackpot books that support it...

[KJ Duke]

If only it was that easy.

Arguing that the government is the problem here has been proven false over and over.

... aaannndd we have a new leader for most outrageous statement. I could go industry by industry detailing one failure after another. Or you could just read about one of 300,000 books on the subject. No clue what you mean, but bad gov't can be traced to virtually every major economic and social problem.

LOL. Your statement is much more outrageous than mine. Government "can be traced to virtually every major economic and social problem"?? This is not supported by the majority of academics in any field (honestly, they are probably about as common as the scientists who don't agree with climate change). Sure you can find crackpot books that support it...

"Milton Friedman, crackpot", cfolson, 2016.

Let's make this easy, what major problem hasn't the Federal gov't had a hand in F'ing up in the past 30 years?

[Edwards Kings]

.... they are probably about as common as the scientists who don't agree with climate change. Sure you can find crackpot books that support it...

Crackpots? Well, you can decide for yourself...

http://www.petitionproject.org/

The average temperature of the Earth has varied within a range of about 3°C during the past 3,000 years. It is currently increasing as the Earth recovers from a period that is known as the Little Ice Age. George Washington and his army were at Valley Forge during the coldest era in 1,500 years, but even then the temperature was only about 1° Centigrade below the 3,000-year average.

Also, the one book that really chaps the global warming communities ass the most is "State of Fear" by Michael Crichton, 2004. Do not read the book without reading the appendices.

The Industrial Revolution was the transition to new manufacturing processes in the period from about 1760 to sometime between 1820 and 1840. So 120+ years after the industrial revolution....

https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/201 ... w-ice-age/

Surface temperatures in the United States during the past century reflect a natural warming trend and its correlation with solar activity (now decreasing). Compiled U.S. surface temperatures have increased about 0.5 °C per century, which is consistent with other historical values of 0.4 to 0.5 °C per century during the recovery from the Little Ice Age. This temperature change is slight as compared with other natural variations. Three intermediate trends are evident, including the decreasing trend used to justify fears of "global cooling" in the 1970s.

According to ice cores from Antarctica, the past 400,000 years have been dominated by glacials, also known as ice ages, that last about 100,000. These glacials have been punctuated by interglacials, short warm periods which typically last 11,500 years. Because our current interglacial (the Holocene) has already lasted approximately 12,000 years, it has led some to claim that a new ice age is imminent.

To answer this question, it is necessary to understand what has caused the shifts between ice ages and interglacials during this period. The cycle appears to be a response to changes in the Earth’s orbit and tilt (not green house gases), which affect the amount of summer sunlight reaching the northern hemisphere. When this amount declines, the rate of summer melt declines and the ice sheets begin to grow. In turn, this increases the amount of sunlight reflected back into space, increasing (or amplifying) the cooling trend. Eventually a new ice age emerges and lasts for about 100,000 years.

So what are today’s conditions like? Changes in both the orbit and tilt of the Earth do indeed indicate that the Earth should be cooling. These two factors, orbit and tilt, are weak and are not acting within the same timescale – they are out of phase by about 10,000 years. This means that their combined effect would probably be too weak to trigger an ice age. You have to go back 430,000 years to find an interglacial with similar conditions, and this interglacial lasted about 30,000 years.

So, not new ice age but maybe a cooling trend.

Another...from 2008 but I do not think this is crackpot stuff.

"Kenneth Tapping, a solar researcher and project director for Canada's National Research Council, is among those looking at the sun for evidence of an increase in sunspot activity.

Solar activity fluctuates in an 11-year cycle. But so far in this cycle, the sun has been disturbingly quiet. The lack of increased activity could signal the beginning of what is known as a Maunder Minimum, an event which occurs every couple of centuries and can last as long as a century.

Such an event occurred in the 17th century. The observation of sunspots showed extraordinarily low levels of magnetism on the sun, with little or no 11-year cycle.

This solar hibernation corresponded with a period of bitter cold that began around 1650 and lasted, with intermittent spikes of warming, until 1715. Frigid winters and cold summers led to massive crop failures, famine and death in Northern Europe.

Tapping reports no change in the sun's magnetic field so far this cycle and warns that if the sun remains quiet for another year or two, it may indicate a repeat of that period of drastic cooling of the Earth, bringing massive snowfall and severe weather to the Northern Hemisphere.

As we have noted many times, perhaps the biggest impact on the Earth's climate over time has been the sun.

R. Timothy Patterson, professor of geology and director of the Ottawa-Carleton Geoscience Center of Canada's Carleton University, says, "I and the first-class scientists I work with are consistently finding excellent correlations between the regular fluctuations of the sun and earthly climate. This is not surprising. The sun and the stars are the ultimate source of energy on this planet."

Patterson, sharing Tapping's concern, says: "Solar scientists predict that, by 2020, the sun will be starting into its weakest Schwabe cycle of the past two centuries, likely leading to unusually cool conditions on Earth."

"If we were to have even a medium-sized solar minimum, we could be looking at a lot more bad effects than 'global warming' would have had," Patterson says."

So solar impacts the earths temperature perhaps more carbon dioxide (typically quoted as the green house gas responsible for climate change and which by the way makes up only 0.03% of the earths atmosphere). And another. From 2014:

Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) processes and analyzes microwave data collected by satellite microwave sensors. According to the RSS satellite data, whose value for May 2014 has just been published, the global warming trend in the 17 years 9 years since September 1996 is zero. The 213 months without global warming represent more than half the 425-month satellite data record since January 1979.



Just sayin'....

[cfolson]

"Milton Friedman, crackpot", cfolson, 2016.

Let's make this easy, what major problem hasn't the Federal gov't had a hand in F'ing up in the past 30 years?

Still looking for the part where I said that all authors are crackpots. Dang, can't find it.

http://www.governmentisgood.com/articles.php?aid=7

[cfolson]

Crackpots? Well, you can decide for yourself...

http://www.petitionproject.org/

That entire site is poorly written propaganda: https://www.skepticalscience.com/OISM-P ... ediate.htm