Auction Values - Batters

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Edwards Kings
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Auction Values - Batters

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon Nov 21, 2016 9:14 am

Just some general thoughts on impact bids from my early notes before Spring Training (now only three months away). Impact bids to me are $20+.

Catchers: Thanks to a new comer and a certain player regaining eligibility, at least four catchers will go for 20+ and two at least will go for 25+. The name cautiously whispered on everyones lips? "....Sanchez..." Pray you have a Yankees fan in your league and bid him up.

Middle Infielders: More than at anytime I can remember, I think MI is going to generate some high bids and (pardon me Dan) bargains later related to other positions. I see at least 15 $20+ dollar winning bids (last year in my league there were six between $18 and $37. The one bidding war to watch? Let me tell you a Story....

Cornermen: Firstbasemen down, thirdbasemen up...net net...about the same as last year. REALLY big bucks going on big-bat anchors on the corner and see at least 17 $20+ dollar winning bids. How much will Bryant go for? Biggest question? Will Wil?

Outfield: I think this is the position that will be discounted due to the rise of the Middle Infielders though I still see 23 $20+ players. Top tier may not be impacted, but those middle tier bids may be just a few dollars cheaper. Lost out on Bryant?...."Mookie, Mookie, Mookie!" From where in this group will the next OF superstar rise? I have no idea Dahling....

DH: Lost three and no one to replace them. So will Morales get enough starts at 1B to qualify? If you think so, he may win the high $ two-man race with Victor, though neither should go for $20. Who do they think they are...Papi? Dead position that will probably be used both in the NL and AL soon...ho-hum....
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Bjs2025
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Re: Auction Values - Batters

Post by Bjs2025 » Mon Nov 21, 2016 10:18 am

One thing that always baffles me about cathers. NOBODY seems to ever value them as highly as they should. I don't know if it is because of injury possibility, durability, whatever. Last year I was in the auction championship draft in NYC on March 24 I believe and when Buster Posey was nominated I knew he was a target of mine. I was expecting with this level of a league that I would have to pay $30 for him which I would've been kind of OK with. I'm made a jump bid to $20 and won him with crickets. I was shaking I was so excited. Definitely paid off, not that I placed or anything I did finish 4th but he played WAY over that value.

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Edwards Kings
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Re: Auction Values - Batters

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon Nov 21, 2016 11:49 am

Not sure about your specific league, but he went for $25 in my league last year, so IMHO you got a great catcher for a nice price.

As to undervaluing, not sure I agree. Most times, the best you can hope for out of a catcher is about 450 AB (only eight had more last year) and to even get mid-pack numbers (70/20/70) you have to look elsewhere (no catcher had a 70/20/70 year...even Posey didn't hit 20 HR). The top of the heap is thin at best and the difference between a $15 catcher and a $5 catcher, numbers wise, isn't much. Catchers typically do not hit in the money spots (i.e. have that glove-only MI or P hitting behind them and not much in front either), rarely play day games after night games, get pitch hit for often, have no speed (exception to Realmuto) so are susceptible to ground-ball outs, and can kill you BA (managers will keep them in for defense despite Mendoza-line hitting).

There is the position scarcity argument and that is valid, but I think the other challenges to the position plus the relatively homogeneous middle-layer/second tier catchers keep them from getting the getting the big bucks.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

headhunters
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Re: Auction Values - Batters

Post by headhunters » Mon Nov 21, 2016 1:01 pm

ok bj2025-will play along- since " NOBODY values catchers as highly as they should' how high should we all be valuing them? and why? you paid $20 for posey and he returned" WAY more than that" how much more? why?

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Re: Auction Values - Batters

Post by Bjs2025 » Mon Nov 21, 2016 2:59 pm

headhunters wrote:ok bj2025-will play along- since " NOBODY values catchers as highly as they should' how high should we all be valuing them? and why? you paid $20 for posey and he returned" WAY more than that" how much more? why?
Well, most people who are smarter than me that create value formulas add over a $20 adjustment to the C position since you start 2 in a 15 Teamer. I find that using a guide with dollar values plugged in for realistic projections are better than using narratives from ESPN articles or picking players on my favorite team. I'm 100% sure I won't own Gar Bear Sanchez this year because of the pants wetting already going on but I'll likely again own "boring, old" Buster.

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Re: Auction Values - Batters

Post by headhunters » Mon Nov 21, 2016 3:05 pm

$20? okee dokee.

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Re: Auction Values - Batters

Post by Bjs2025 » Mon Nov 21, 2016 3:33 pm

headhunters wrote:$20? okee dokee.
You know what I have found from people who argue with logic? I am talking proven, statistical logic. There's never any kind of argument back. When someone who disagrees with statistical analysis which illustrates that in a value formula with these league settings and a REASONABLE projection made by hundreds of experts that a player be valued at X amount there is never an argument back as to how he should be valued instead.

How could one even possibly argue that the extra positional value a Catcher could carry when ALL 30 MLB catchers are started in these leagues be lesser than the positional value of a SS when only 15 of them are started, maybe more like 22 when you add in MI spot.

I understand no one with this philosophical difference will ever change their mind which is fine with me but please at least offer an argument.

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Re: Auction Values - Batters

Post by KJ Duke » Mon Nov 21, 2016 3:40 pm

Bjs2025 wrote:
headhunters wrote:ok bj2025-will play along- since " NOBODY values catchers as highly as they should' how high should we all be valuing them? and why? you paid $20 for posey and he returned" WAY more than that" how much more? why?
Well, most people who are smarter than me that create value formulas add over a $20 adjustment to the C position since you start 2 in a 15 Teamer. I find that using a guide with dollar values plugged in for realistic projections are better than using narratives from ESPN articles or picking players on my favorite team. I'm 100% sure I won't own Gar Bear Sanchez this year because of the pants wetting already going on but I'll likely again own "boring, old" Buster.
For NFBC, catchers are worth about an $8-9 premium over a position player with the same stats given their value over the marginal C. But premium is often less than that in draft based on either 1) discount for perceived injury risk, or 2) simple draft/roster construction preference. Observing many auctions ... there seem to be more bidders that would rather spend on other positions. Same goes for TE position in football auctions.
Last edited by KJ Duke on Mon Nov 21, 2016 3:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Auction Values - Batters

Post by ToddZ » Mon Nov 21, 2016 3:46 pm

I'm doing some research on catcher valuation. Things got wacky starting in 2015.

Cliff notes version (detailed research will be saved for my subscribers, sorry)...

The last two seasons, the catcher bump based on preseason projections has been about $15 (up from $8-$9 previously). However, if you take the catcher projections and replace the actual catcher production the last two years, the bump is $7. This is for a 15-team league.

By bump, I mean the difference in price if the catchers are lumped in with all hitters, thus comparing the entire pool to one replacement set as opposed to breaking the pool into catchers and non-catchers, each with their own replacement.

I'm altering my value calculator to give catchers a $7 bump in the projection set. It's an empirical adjustment, but one I feel is warranted.

FWIW -- my next update will have three catchers $20+ with a fourth at $19, aligning with EK's first post.
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Re: Auction Values - Batters

Post by Bjs2025 » Mon Nov 21, 2016 4:20 pm

ToddZ wrote:I'm doing some research on catcher valuation. Things got wacky starting in 2015.

Cliff notes version (detailed research will be saved for my subscribers, sorry)...

The last two seasons, the catcher bump based on preseason projections has been about $15 (up from $8-$9 previously). However, if you take the catcher projections and replace the actual catcher production the last two years, the bump is $7. This is for a 15-team league.

By bump, I mean the difference in price if the catchers are lumped in with all hitters, thus comparing the entire pool to one replacement set as opposed to breaking the pool into catchers and non-catchers, each with their own replacement.

I'm altering my value calculator to give catchers a $7 bump in the projection set. It's an empirical adjustment, but one I feel is warranted.

FWIW -- my next update will have three catchers $20+ with a fourth at $19, aligning with EK's first post.

Interesting that the actual production decreases the positional bump by half. Even if the preseason bump of roughly $15 were kept I still think folks tend not to value catchers like that meaning you could still get a Posey for a "discount."

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Re: Auction Values - Batters

Post by Edwards Kings » Tue Nov 22, 2016 4:59 am

I understand the concept of position scarcity, but I think the unique nature of catchers mitigates some of that, at least in the NFBC. What we know:

1) Thirty catchers will be bought and not all MLB team "starters" will be taken. Some platoon splits will go before starters so even in the end game, a starting catcher will be available (Flowers anybody?).
2) Give or take a buck, the AVERAGE NFBC team will spend $15 for catchers and about $225 in total will be spent league wide. This gives a very narrow range of "average" winning bid for most catchers who will be purchased.
3) 20% to 25% of the winning bids for catchers (say 6 to 8) will be for $1 or $2.
4) Results for catchers are relatively homogenous. 22 catchers last year had 10+ HR, but 14 of the were between 10 and 17. Only five had more than five SB. 10 had between 49 and 60 runs scored, only three more and only one (Posey) had more than 67. 12 had between 48 and 68 RBI, only six had more and none more than 81.

So my point is any scarcity value should only be applied to a very thin top layer. Even if you spend $40 to $45 to get the two top catchers, you may win the competition to get the best catchers (no prize for that) and the opportunity cost (the spread between the incremental points you achieved from the catcher position over the pack) is high compared to who else you could have spent the money ($25 to $30) on, so I am not sure it is worth it. That amount of money can upgrade four to six $5 players to $10 players.

To each his own.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Auction Values - Batters

Post by Edwards Kings » Tue Nov 22, 2016 8:15 am

ToddZ wrote:FWIW -- my next update will have three catchers $20+ with a fourth at $19, aligning with EK's first post.
You use an Ouija Board too?

:lol:
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Re: Auction Values - Batters

Post by ToddZ » Tue Nov 22, 2016 8:26 am

Edwards Kings wrote:
ToddZ wrote:FWIW -- my next update will have three catchers $20+ with a fourth at $19, aligning with EK's first post.
You use an Ouija Board too?

:lol:
I switched to the Magic 8-Ball
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Re: Auction Values - Batters

Post by headhunters » Tue Nov 22, 2016 10:16 am

bj- ok now I have completely taken the bait. I said $20 ok? I never said there isn't a catcher bump- never. I use todd- a person "smarter' than me at projections. he is my "expert' whatever that is. YOU said all these "experts" say $20. now it is your turn- list "all these experts" that bump catchers $20. also- explain how they get to be "experts" - your definition not mine. in this society- to paraphrase Sandra day O'Conner- there are more experts than people. wayne- I think you are discussing 2 different things- the value of catchers at an auction and what people will pay for them. values pertain to projections. ist you do a projection- then you do a value. the problem- if understand todd correctly- is the before and after. the projections are the before and the actual results are the after. you can really say that about any position. last year ss and 2b outperformed projections as a group- I think. 1b and of and sp's not so much. intuitively you know that the bottom catchers have negative values- just like the worst starters. that negative ba just overwhelms the counting stats. so in paying a buck you might be buying -4 in actual production. catchers aren't the only players going for a buck and it is more likely those "free" outfielders or corners in the snake part of the auction play to a positive amount.

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Re: Auction Values - Batters

Post by Yah Mule » Tue Nov 22, 2016 10:23 am

I find that I'm generally satisfied with the way my roster is constructed after I draft a catcher in round three or four. After I spend big on catchers in an auction, not so much.

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Re: Auction Values - Batters

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Nov 22, 2016 10:28 am

I would rather be lucky with catchers than good.
The catchers I do draft, I want health and their previous stats would be good.
The catchers I faab, I want a few counting stats.
It's not asking for much, same as they give.

Luck would be faabing a Leon or Barnhart (skill if successful)
Rather than a Caleb Joseph (just plain bad luck)
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

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Re: Auction Values - Batters

Post by Bjs2025 » Tue Nov 22, 2016 11:37 am

headhunters wrote:bj- ok now I have completely taken the bait. I said $20 ok? I never said there isn't a catcher bump- never. I use todd- a person "smarter' than me at projections. he is my "expert' whatever that is. YOU said all these "experts" say $20. now it is your turn- list "all these experts" that bump catchers $20. also- explain how they get to be "experts" - your definition not mine. in this society- to paraphrase Sandra day O'Conner- there are more experts than people. wayne- I think you are discussing 2 different things- the value of catchers at an auction and what people will pay for them. values pertain to projections. ist you do a projection- then you do a value. the problem- if understand todd correctly- is the before and after. the projections are the before and the actual results are the after. you can really say that about any position. last year ss and 2b outperformed projections as a group- I think. 1b and of and sp's not so much. intuitively you know that the bottom catchers have negative values- just like the worst starters. that negative ba just overwhelms the counting stats. so in paying a buck you might be buying -4 in actual production. catchers aren't the only players going for a buck and it is more likely those "free" outfielders or corners in the snake part of the auction play to a positive amount.
They are experts at creating a value formula using an SGP method. I obviously know they're projections aren't RIGHT but usually are a better baseline than most could predict, especially when combining industry people's and averaging them. The scarcity for Catchers makes a C who bats .260/12/60 more valuable than an OF who does the same. The positional adjustment is correct based on the model whether people pay the price or not.

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Re: Auction Values - Batters

Post by ToddZ » Tue Nov 22, 2016 11:50 am

The 30th catcher costs $1 and is worth $1, not a negative amount. This is the genesis of the bump.

That said, a dollar amount in a vacuum is only relevant if drafting a retro league where stats are in the bank. The...um...value...is a guide. Game theory then kicks in -- injury risk, ability to upgrade in season, etc., are all factors to consider how to approach catchers.
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Re: Auction Values - Batters

Post by Edwards Kings » Tue Nov 22, 2016 12:36 pm

headhunters wrote:wayne- I think you are discussing 2 different things- the value of catchers at an auction and what people will pay for them. values pertain to projections. ist you do a projection- then you do a value.
Wouldn't be the first time and definitely not the last! :D

I do think the "value" (I define value as what the player can do to add to my stats) and what people pay for catchers in an auction (literally the winning bids) should be more closely aligned. This is given of course that the minimum bid necessary is $1 and the player in question will not produce equally as another $1 player might. So if you end up paying $1 for a player who will provide negative $4 value, then yes, I guess that means there is a $5 position scarcity up-charge.

I do not like up-charges.

"Mister, you want to supersize that?"

"Will I have to pay for it?"

"Well, yes, of course, there is a $1.49 up-charge to get an extra large order of fried grease covered in Dorito-dust to go with your Maxi-Gulp carbonated chemicals! $2.49 if you want road-side de-fibrillation services!"

"Well yes, that all sounds delicious, but I do not want to pay for it, so I will pass!"

"Here's your order, sir! [asshole]"

"Thank you! [soon to be replaced by androids]"
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

Bjs2025
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Re: Auction Values - Batters

Post by Bjs2025 » Tue Nov 22, 2016 1:13 pm

Something that I will be very intrigued by this year with auction prices: last year I tracked along with Lord Zola, the auction results in NFBC auctions run by he and Andy Saxton (sorry if I'm missing anyone else). As we know in the NFBC pitching had been at a premium the last few years. I noticed a 65/35 split in auctions last year whereas years before that you could count on 67/33 if not a bit higher towards the hitting side. Now that we are seeing the pendulum swing back offensively, I wonder if we get a bump back up over 65% overall. Guys like Harvey, Syndergaard and RIP Jose Fernandez </3 seemed to go for so much in auctions last year.

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Re: Auction Values - Batters

Post by 76erfan » Tue Nov 22, 2016 1:36 pm

ill start running those online auctions when i get the green light that nfbc is ready to handle those. Tom will let me know when.

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Re: Auction Values - Batters

Post by headhunters » Thu Nov 24, 2016 1:25 pm

bj- you must be a politician. you bring up "experts" and then when asked who they are- won't name them. 3rd try - who are "all the experts" that give catchers a 20 buck bump? I mean - all of us who you "can't believe" don't bid higher need to be shown the light. I am sure these experts want you to plug their websites.

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Re: Auction Values - Batters

Post by Bjs2025 » Thu Nov 24, 2016 7:02 pm

headhunters wrote:bj- you must be a politician. you bring up "experts" and then when asked who they are- won't name them. 3rd try - who are "all the experts" that give catchers a 20 buck bump? I mean - all of us who you "can't believe" don't bid higher need to be shown the light. I am sure these experts want you to plug their websites.
I mean, go to any website you like, Fangraphs auction calculator is a good example, and simply look at the positional adjustment they give each player. I don't listen to industry "experts" because everything they talk about focuses on some narrative about why a player might be better or worse this year, no actual projections. Use statistics to gain a solid projection for a player, plug it into an intelligent value formula and trust that value. Or don't.

Also, my original comment wasn't trying to call out the NFBC community or anything which it seems like you've implied was my motivation judging by this comment:

"Ok bj2025-will play along- since " NOBODY values catchers as highly as they should' how high should we all be valuing them? and why."

I have noticed in ALL fantasy baseball circles I have ever been in, generally people do not seem to value catchers as much as they should. I think this is highlighted moreso in the NFBC however, because of the 15 team, 2 catcher nature.

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