Jeff Erickson Will Chat Here Today At 2 PM ET

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 7:28 am

Any thoughts on Anthony Reyes? Would you feel comfortable plugging him in as your 5th/6th SP, or lean toward spot-starting him?

~Lance

Jeff Erickson · Post by **Jeff Erickson** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 7:29 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:

Do you see Taveras and Freel approaching 50sb this season ? I think Taveras has a better chance than Freel, if for no other reason than I don't think Freel can stay healthy for a full 150-160 game season. Taveras should get on-base more frequently this year with the change in venue, so there's the possibility of a Pierre-like season. I'm not too worried about the humidor - if you look at the final six weeks of the season at Coors, it was back to its usual ways.

Jeff Erickson · Post by **Jeff Erickson** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 7:32 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

Jeff, thanks for the chat. What are your thoughts on Joe Mauer? Is he a good third round pick? Yeah, in a 15-team draft, I think he's worth a third-round pick. That might not be early enough to get him, however. I've seen him go in the second round twice in 12-14 team drafts in industry-wide mock drafts this offseason.

All that said, my projection is a little tamer for him than most, because I think there's still some playing time/injury concerns, and an open question of whether his power comes in a little more. I wouldn't use a second round pick on him, but a third seems right.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 7:34 am

Jeff, in order, who had the best fantasy season, who had the least impact this year ?

P.Hughes / H.Bailey / M.Pelfrey / McCarthy /Garza / Billingsly

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 7:36 am

With all the hype around Jose Reyes...my eyes bugged out when I saw the 2nd half seasons of Hanley Ramirez when set side by side with Reyes...

Hanley Ramirez...

.312 14HR 29SB 63R 39RBI

Jose Reyes...

.307 11HR 30SB 55R 45RBI

Seems to me Hanley has more value in a later round than Jose in the upper part of the first round.

Your thoughts?

~Lance

Jeff Erickson · Post by **Jeff Erickson** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 7:37 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

Jeff

I bought your magazine b/c you impressed me in the chat last year.

Your top 200 is pretty non traditional- when making a list like that is your goal 1) to give the reader your exact cheat sheet 2) Try to help the novice player.

I would assume that is a struggle all along- if you think Albert Belle is going to struggle this year and you have him 75th on your board you are telling the truth. However the casual player may want to take him before then or may not realize that you although probably correct have a drastically different opinion than most.

With all that said not very well- I assume it is quite a balancing act. It's a really tough balancing act. I gear more towards how I'd draft - I think it's really the only honest way. I know that's going to have a few guys out of line, but I think it also serves as a decent talisman towards where I'm going to find my bargains, especially if you put it up against the mock drafts here, or all the mock drafts on a site like MockDraftCentral.com.

I'll say this, outside of the actual projections that we do, nothing draws more commentary, heated or otherwise, than the Top 200 rankings.

I'm also assuming that even the most novice player knows that there are other fish in the sea - they can find alternate rankings fairly easily, as a point of comparison.

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 7:40 am

With the Orioles splurge on Middle Relievers this year, how do you take that?

1. They are concerned about Chris Ray.

2. They are trying to build up assets that might be attractive at the trade deadline, when they are 25 games out.

3. They don't think their starters can go deep into the game.

4. Their Front Office really doesn't know what they are doing.

Jeff Erickson · Post by **Jeff Erickson** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 7:42 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:

What's the deal with COL and the humidor this season. MLB stated last week that they're looking for conformity as to storage. Does that mean humidors all around but with specific temp settings ? Does anybody know how COL is going to play out this year ? thanks Jeff ! Is this same sort of conformity that they were looking for with Questec? If so, I have my doubts that it'll happen. If there's any effect, maybe homers will be down just a smidge. As far as Coors go, we don't know first of all what level they had it set at for the first four months of the season, and how that compares to the new standard. I think Coors will still be Coors, at the end of the day.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 7:42 am

Speaking of Homer Bailey...I'd bet that he hasn't been carded (if he has even attempted to buy liquor) since he was 14 years old.

For a 21 year old...he has the face that could pass for a 50 year old!

~Lance

Jeff Erickson · Post by **Jeff Erickson** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 7:44 am

Originally posted by Top Dawg:

Hi Jeff - Furcal or Hanley Ramirez mid-late round 2 in the NFBC or pass on them both?

Thanks - Pete I have Hanley rated higher than Furcal, but neither in my top two rounds, according to NFBC standards. Right now Ramirez is as 36 and Furcal at 43. For what it's worth, I have Rollins, Jeter, Tejada and Michael Young rated higher than both.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 7:44 am

Jeff, I read rotoworld (free)and have subscribed to rototimes. What does rotowire offer that differentiates from the other two ?

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 7:45 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Speaking of Homer Bailey...I'd bet that he hasn't been carded (if he has even attempted to buy liquor) since he was 14 years old.

For a 21 year old...he has the face that could pass for a 50 year old!

~Lance Homer is one ugly dude-

Jeff how did you like the description of you in fantasyland?

Jeff Erickson · Post by **Jeff Erickson** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 7:45 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Any thoughts on Anthony Reyes? Would you feel comfortable plugging him in as your 5th/6th SP, or lean toward spot-starting him?

~Lance Until the Cardinals show more confidence in him, it's hard for me to do the same. I was somewhat high on him last year and got burned a little. Working against him is his HR-rate - it's a little too high for my liking. I'd spot him at home and against some of the weaker lineups/ballparks on the road.

Jeff Erickson · Post by **Jeff Erickson** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 7:50 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:

Jeff, in order, who had the best fantasy season, who had the least impact this year ?

P.Hughes / H.Bailey / M.Pelfrey / McCarthy /Garza / Billingsly I'd go in this order:

Garza/Hughes/Bailey/Billingsley/Pelfrey/McCarthy.

I think Garza should get a spot in the rotation by May, if not right away. Hughes and Bailey all depends on how soon their teams want to pull the cord and put them in. I'm a little worried about Pelfrey's health and the speed in which they called him up last year. McCarthy's value to me for this year is dead with the trade.

Jeff Erickson · Post by **Jeff Erickson** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 7:53 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

With all the hype around Jose Reyes...my eyes bugged out when I saw the 2nd half seasons of Hanley Ramirez when set side by side with Reyes...

Hanley Ramirez...

.312 14HR 29SB 63R 39RBI

Jose Reyes...

.307 11HR 30SB 55R 45RBI

Seems to me Hanley has more value in a later round than Jose in the upper part of the first round.

Your thoughts?

~Lance Yeah, if those numbers held up, sure; that said, I think the league will adjust to Ramirez a little and he'll need to make the recquisite readjustments. If you get Hanley in the third, then yes, you'll probably get that sort of value. A lot of it depends on where your draft slot is in the first round, when weighing Reyes vs. Ramirez.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 7:54 am

What "old guy" is gonna surprise us near the end of his career?

Jeff Erickson · Post by **Jeff Erickson** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 7:56 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

With the Orioles splurge on Middle Relievers this year, how do you take that?

1. They are concerned about Chris Ray.

2. They are trying to build up assets that might be attractive at the trade deadline, when they are 25 games out.

3. They don't think their starters can go deep into the game.

4. Their Front Office really doesn't know what they are doing. 5. All of the above.

Seriously, I do think that they were really let down by their set-up work last year, and they decided to attack their insect-level problem with hand grenades. I think Baez is a decent reliever, but his contract is borderline lunacy. Ray did fade a little down the stretch, but long-term I'm still pretty optimistic about him. I'd discount the trade-asset theory - usually those sorts of relievers don't net big prospects in trades.

Jeff Erickson · Post by **Jeff Erickson** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 7:57 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Speaking of Homer Bailey...I'd bet that he hasn't been carded (if he has even attempted to buy liquor) since he was 14 years old.

For a 21 year old...he has the face that could pass for a 50 year old!

~Lance Cole Hamels probably wishes that he were in the Phillies organization then.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 7:58 am

We'll cut the questions off for here today and I'll let Jeff answer as many of them as he can before he has to go. We'd like to thank Jeff again for taking the time out of his schedule to come and chat with us. Don't forget the RotoWire mag is part of your NFBC goodie bag and don't forget to check out rotowire.com as part of your Draft Day preparations. Thanks again Jeff and we'll see you soon.

Be nice to Greg at LABR.

Top Dawg · Post by **Top Dawg** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 7:59 am

If you were drafting today, what round would you draft Clemens in if you saw him still there? If still unsigned by the time the main event drafts in md-March, would your answer change?

Pete

Jeff Erickson · Post by **Jeff Erickson** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 8:00 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Speaking of Homer Bailey...I'd bet that he hasn't been carded (if he has even attempted to buy liquor) since he was 14 years old.

For a 21 year old...he has the face that could pass for a 50 year old!

~Lance Homer is one ugly dude-

Jeff how did you like the description of you in fantasyland? [/QUOTE]It was mostly fair - and from a business perspective, he got it right. I'd like to think that I'm not as "virulently boring" as described, but that's left to the beholder.

Overall, I was happy with the book; a few others in the book might have legitimate gripes, but I was treated fine.

Jeff Erickson · Post by **Jeff Erickson** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 8:02 am

Hey folks, I have to run - my other radio show on XM - on XM 144, at 3:00 ET/Noon PT - is about to start. I'll get to any straggler questions after the show is over. Thanks for all the questions!

Jeff Erickson · Post by **Jeff Erickson** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 1:56 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

What "old guy" is gonna surprise us near the end of his career? I think Kenny Lofton could be surprisingly useful with the Rangers - just don't expect more than 125 games out of him, and you should be ok.

Otherwise, I'd look at the starting pitchers, who tend to age better than position players.

Jeff Erickson · Post by **Jeff Erickson** » Wed Feb 21, 2007 1:57 pm

Originally posted by Top Dawg:

If you were drafting today, what round would you draft Clemens in if you saw him still there? If still unsigned by the time the main event drafts in md-March, would your answer change?

Pete I still think he'll play, but he's not going to sign until May. Would I draft him? With a seven-man reserve, yes - probably in about the 10-13th round, maybe a little later depending on what he says between now and then.