Stuff

[DOUGHBOYS]

Sabr's beat it into our heads in how important drawing a base on balls for a hitter. They get this because, they themselves, hit ninth in Little Leagues and was the player that the Coach hoped would walk, so "A walk is as good as a hit" still rings in their ears.
I believe that pitcher's are have the control in this area. They decide who and when they want to be aggressive.
A case in point.
Ryan Howard was a Sabr dream. In his heyday drawing over 100 walks. But, as Howard's star started to fade, so did his 'skill' of drawing that sabr-coveted walk.
Last year, Howard, a shell of his former self drew only 27 base on balls in over 350 plate appearances. This was actually an improvement for Howard. The year before, he walked the same number of times in more than 500 plate appearances.
Pitchers had little fear in facing Howard.
And why should they? He hit .196
The amazing thing is that Howard's home runs nearly matched his walk totals.
25 homers, 27 walks.
Even more amazing is that Howard ended his year with just 35 runs scored. Meaning he only scored 10 times without his own power.
How many times did he score after drawing one of those 27 walks?
Two times.

There's another player that has begun the star fading process of his career.
Albert Pujols.
Pujols has become a baseclogger himself.
Last year, his drafters were happy to see that Pujols drove in 119 runs. He scored only 71 runs.
The only other hitter who tipped the scales like that last year, is now retired.
David Ortiz.
Pujols scored 31 times by his own home run hand.

There's another player who is hard to get around the bases, unless homering.
Evan Gattis had 61 singles, 19 doubles, 32 homers, walked 61 times and was hbp four times.
If taking away the runs scored by way of his own homers, Gattis scored just 26 times.

The leader in extra base hits last year, will not be playing this year, David Ortiz retired.

How many outfielders were in the top 10 in the extra base hit category?
Just one.
And it wasn't Mike Trout.
It was Mookie Betts.
This isn't cherry picking. There were only five outfielders out of the top 21 who had 70 extra base hits.
Again, not Mike Trout.
Betts, Trumbo, Kemp, Cruz, and Duvall.

The same phenomenon is happening with the power source of first basemen.
Only Anthony Rizzo and Freddy Freeman were in the top 10.
Only two more (Encarnacion, Cabrera)had as many as 70 extra base hits.
Power, almost equally distributed among all positions except Catcher.

No Catcher had 70 extra base hits.
No Catcher had 60 extra base hits last year.
Only two Catchers had 50 extra base hits.
Jonathon Lucroy and Sal Perez.

For those of you drafting Alcides Escobar because he is leading off, here is a gem.
Escobar scored (57) five less times in 200 more at bats than Alex Gordon (62)

Part time player Rajai Davis beat Starling Marte in three of five categories last year.
And one of those categories was not stolen bases.

Marte .311/71/9/46/47

Davis .249/74/12/48/43

Marte ADP- 24

Davis ADP- 197

139 batters struck out 100 times last year. Of those hitters, only six had less than 10 homers.
Tim Anderson, Cesar Hernandez, Brett Gardner, Paulo Orlando, Travis Jankowski, and Starling Marte

While I am picking on Marte, I'll use him as a comparison here.
Starling Marte had nine home runs last year.
Brian Dozier had 11....vs. the Kansas City Royals.

Every drafting season, we will here somebody say, "I fully expect a 30/30 year out of this guy."
The last time a 30/30 season occurred was 2012 (Trout, Braun)

Without knowing it, Joe Mauer gave up his shot at the Hall of Fame when switching from Catcher to First Base.
Anywhere but Catcher, his statistics are, well, ordinary.
Both Mauer and Yadier Molina have player 12 years.
Here are there lines....

Mauer- 308/885/130/804/50

Molina- .285/541/108/703/47

Mauer tops Molina in every category.
Yet, it'll be Molina who'll get more Hall of Fame consideration.

[headhunters]

who am I? a certain hitter- when asked about lineup protection- said he did not notice any difference in pitches no matter who batted behind him. Then he said "who is gonna protect me anyway? Babe Ruth?"

[Hollenole]

While, I agree that Rajai's ADP is low and Marte's is a lil too high. I assume the 60 points in BA, in 2015 Marte flashed 20 HR pop(19) had 84 RBI's and 81 runs and is 7 years younger would account for most if not all of the gap between these 2. Marte's 47 SB came in only 129 games last year. If someone wants to bet on him consolidating his previously shown skills in 2017 I couldn't blame them. His balky back is more of reason to be cautious than skillset. IMO.
BTW I think you nailed the Mauer/Molina comp, love reading your thoughts/rants.

[Bronx Yankees]

Interesting stuff, Dan. On the topic of home runs and ancillary stats, I think Curtis Granderson's 2016 season deserves a mention. 30 home runs and only 59 RBI. I don't think anyone has ever had fewer RBIs with 30 HR. He actually knocked himself in more times than being knocked in by all of his teammates combined. In comparison, five other players had exactly 30 HR in 2016 (Hanley, K. Seager, Kendrys, Braun and B. Miller). They each had a lot more RBI than Granderson's 59 (111, 99, 93, 91 and 81, respectively).

Four more quick notes/comments:

1. In contrast to Granderson, in 1931, Pie Traynor had 103 RBI and only hit 2 HR. In 1928, he showed a little more power, with 3 HR and 124 RBI.

2. In terms of base-cloggers, Pujols and Ortiz were great, but not the biggest. The biggest gap of players in terms of RBI minus runs were Vic Wertz, who in 1960 had 103 RBI and only 45 runs (-58), and Harmon Killebrew, who in 1971 had 119 RBI and only 61 runs (-58 as well).

3. Lest you (or anyone) was wondering, the most extreme season in the other direction was by Lloyd Waner, who in 1927 scored 133 runs and only had 27 RBI (difference of 106).

4. I'm not totally buying that Yadier Molina v. Joe Mauer comparison. Yadi is not going to Cooperstown because of his bat. He's got eight Golden Gloves and four Platinum Gloves. While I have no personal knowledge of pre-1970 catchers, Yadi at his peak may have been the third best I've ever seen (going to give the slight nod to Johnny Bench and Pudge Rodriguez). Yadi's going to be a first ballot election (IMHO) because he was an all-time great defender at the toughest position, while also being a solid hitter and a workhorse. If Yadi was a very good but not great fielding catcher, he wouldn't get into the HOF. Thus, it's not just that he remained a catcher, but that he's been among the best defensive catchers ever. (I do agree that Mauer only gets into the HOF if he buys a ticket, but I can still see him getting some consideration no matter what he does going forward. On the positive side, he's a 6-time all-star, 5-time Silver Slugger, 3-time Golden Glove winner and, perhaps most importantly, an MVP winner and 3-time batting champion. Folks have made the Hall of Fame before with less hardware. On the negative side, however, his peak as a catcher arguably was way too short and, since moving to 1B, has been a below-average hitter. He's only had one season with more than 13 HR and has never scored or knocked in 100 runs.)

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

Would you vote for Mauer?
Molina?

[Bronx Yankees]

Would you vote for Mauer?
Molina?

No on Mauer. He was a really good hitting and fielding catcher for a number of years, but he didn't do it for long enough. Switching to 1B did not kill his HOF candidacy; but hitting poorly when he got there solidifies the "no" vote for me. Tried to convey, however, as poorly as Mauer has hit the last few years, and while we've thought of him as a fantasy non-entity for some time, you could at least make the argument he belongs in the HOF based solely on the hardware he earned as a catcher. in other words, he's a "no" for me, but perhaps it's not a "slam dunk no" as one might think based on his last few years.

Strong yes on Molina. But, I think he breezes into the HOF based on his glove. He gets in primarily because of his glove, but he hit enough to soothe any naysayers. He also probably comes as close as anyone to being a player-manager in the last 20 years. (Was Pete Rose the last player-manager? Think so but am not sure.) Thus, I don't think he gets in because of his hitting, or solely because he still is a catcher, but because he's an awesome-fielding catcher who also was a solid hitter.

These are not great comps perhaps, but Mauer kind of reminds me of Don Mattingly. A stretch of HOF-quality years that just didn't last long enough. Yadi is like Ozzie Smith to me. The glove, at a premium position, is practically good enough to win enshrinement on its own, but he also was a solid enough hitter to put him (way) over the top (maybe the difference between Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel?).

So, I agree with you that Yadi gets in and Mauer doesn't, but disagree with the implication that the sole difference or reason is because Yadi stayed at catcher. While Mauer was a strong-fielding catcher for a number of years, I don't think he's in Yadi's league fielding-wise. To me, Yadi is a generational player in terms of fielding, ranking right up there with the best ever. While Mauer arguably would have a stronger case if he continued to catch, I'm not sure he'd get in even if he did based on his hitting performance. I'd put Carlton Fisk in the HOF well before Mauer (and that's not an easy thing for a Yankee fan to say).

Hope this makes sense.

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

Wow, that was a lot of words to say no to Mauer and yes to Yadi.

I believe we are in a generation with a void at Catcher. Buster Posey has been the only consistent good hitting catcher since Pudge. And without the use of PEDS (probably), he doesn't even compare with Pudge.

Posey- .307/443/116/527/14

Pudge- .296/1354/307/1332/127

Posey is only 30 next month, but he will not come close to Pudge in hitting categories.

And with the void at Catcher in this generation, I believe it'll help Molina in his bid for the Hall of Fame. He has clearly been the best defensive Catcher since Pudge.

Not so for Mauer. And his move to 1B did seal the deal. He had a career year and a very good average. Mauer is more like Bill Madlock. He was very good at getting to first base. The hardware earned was nice, but hardly worthy of the Hall on its own.
For years, Mauer has been a top of the order batter that has 'produced' like a bottom of the order hitter.

[NorCalAtlFan]

wtf is this even a discussion, of course molina gets in the hof(i know you like absolutes dan:P). i hate the cards with every fiber of my being that doesn't already hate the mutts, but i knew/know i'm watching a hof

the defense and the rings, done deal. next.

next thing you'll compare grady sizemore and mike trout.....

[headhunters]

pudge used steroids- so his numbers mean crap. only liberals can defend him. he is another guy when asked if he used steroids gave a non answer. what a douche. carry on.

[DOUGHBOYS]

wtf is this even a discussion, of course molina gets in the hof(i know you like absolutes dan:P). i hate the cards with every fiber of my being that doesn't already hate the mutts, but i knew/know i'm watching a hof

the defense and the rings, done deal. next.

next thing you'll compare grady sizemore and mike trout.....

I'm older than most of you so my judgment of Molina may be a little more stringent than you fellas.
Has Molina been the best defensive Catcher in baseball over the last few years? That part's easy. Yes.
But, what else has he done?
He has a tidy batting average, but really, little else to contribute to his resume.
No counting totals in the top 25 of all time Catchers.
And pales badly to other Hall of Famers at the position.
If Molina is selected to the Hall of Fame, it'll be because of the total lack of Catchers surrounding him from other teams for the last few years.
Besides Buster Posey, there is nobody that can be thought of as Hall of Fame material.

Bill Freehan won a ring.
Caught a 30 game winner.
Voted to 11 All Star games
Won Five Gold Gloves.
No Hall of Fame.

Freehan .262/706/200/758

Molina .285/541/108/703

If Molina gets in, there should be a committee formed to investigate the exclusion of Freehan.