Getting Ahead Of The Shohei Ohtani Curve For 2018

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Greg Ambrosius
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Getting Ahead Of The Shohei Ohtani Curve For 2018

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:58 am

There was a great story in last week's Sports Illustrated on Japan's Shohei Ohtani, the next great International free agent. Ohtani is just 22 but he is the best pitcher in Japan and quite possibly one of the best power-hitters there as well. He will be leaving Japan next year and signing an MLB contract for 2018 and beyond.

First let's look at the stats: Ohtani went 10-4 last year for the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters in 20 starts with a 1.86 ERA. He averaged more strikeouts per nine innings (11.2) than Clayton Kershaw. He has a high 90s fastball and three other offspeed pitches. As a designated hitter, he hit 22 home runs in 382 plate appearances with a 1.004 OPS, a better home run rate than either Bryce Harper and Mike Trout.

So this got me to thinking ahead to next year and the first Message Board posts that come after Ohtani hits a home run: "Why can't I get his hitting stats, too?!!!" Right? That's coming.

So here's what is likely to happen next year, and of course we'll finalize this once we know what team signs him and what role he will play. He likely will be paid as a pitcher and drafted as a pitcher. If he plays in the outfield 10 games during the season he can be used as an OF if you'd like, but then you wouldn't get his pitching stats. You'd have to choose what position to put him at. If he DHs fulltime when he's not pitching, we'd likely give him UT eligibility along with P eligibility. Again, NFBC owners would choose at the start of each week where they would play him, as a pitcher or as a hitter.

Just like with Madison Bumgarner, you don't get hitting and pitching stats in one week. You just get the pitching stats with him. If Ohtani just pitches and pinch-hits at times, he would be P only. But if he DHs regularly and pitches, or more drastically plays the outfield 10 times or more, then we'll have to give owners options on where to play him. But again, he can't get both stats during the week; he's either a P or a hitter for you.

Right now I suspect when he signs he will have P only eligibility, but let's see who signs him and what his role will be.

I'm just thinking ahead so I'm ready for the Message Board posts on this subject. ;) Hope that helps.
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Deadheadz
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Re: Getting Ahead Of The Shohei Ohtani Curve For 2018

Post by Deadheadz » Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:11 pm

.
Not sure if it's a good solution or not but I saw a site years ago where they considered "John Smith" SP and "John Smith" Batter as two distinct players. I forget the actual player and can't even guess who would fit the scenario.

But it gave the potential for one player to be drafted as a pitcher on one team and as a hitter on another. Or potentially both on the same team but taken with two separate draft picks.

Would NFBC ever consider that method or is it important that the drafter get complete ownership and have to choose one set of stats but not both?
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Re: Getting Ahead Of The Shohei Ohtani Curve For 2018

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:36 pm

No.
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Re: Getting Ahead Of The Shohei Ohtani Curve For 2018

Post by Yah Mule » Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:49 pm

I think you should be able to choose between starting him as a pitcher, as a position player, or as both at once. Bumgarner comps are not applicable since he will never qualify at any other position. It's true that this essentially gives you an extra bench player, but so what? That additional value will be baked into his draft price, as will the risk involved in losing a player theoretically capable of contributing in ten categories.

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Re: Getting Ahead Of The Shohei Ohtani Curve For 2018

Post by Bronx Yankees » Wed Apr 19, 2017 3:22 pm

I agree with the intent of the thread, which is to figure out how players like Ohtani will be treated in advance of the start of next drafting season. It seems like he is a unique player and the rules should be set before the start of drafts so owners can figure out how best to value him.

I'm OK with giving owners the option of treating Ohtani as a pitcher or a hitter, but not both. If he is used frequently as a hitter in Japan, then he should qualify immediately as an UT or OF, whichever is appropriate based on how he is used this season. In this case, I'm assuming the usual roster rules would apply. For instance, if used as a pitcher, he would "lock" as such for the entire week; while if used as a hitter, there would be the usual Monday through Thursday and Friday through Sunday periods.

I'm also OK with giving owners the option of treating Ohtani as a pitcher and a hitter simultaneously, but in that case he must take up one of the 14 hitter slots AND one of the nine pitcher slots when in the starting lineup as both. While this may be most reflective of how he likely will be used in MLB, I imagine that this is the much harder approach to implement. He would be one player for drafting purposes, but then for the season, he essentially would have to be divided up into Ohtani the pitcher and Ohtani the hitter, thereby giving owners the option to start both, bench both, or start one but not the other. Benches, which currently are programed to allow only seven players, would have to be expanded to eight to accommodate times when Ohtani the pitcher and Ohtani the hitter both are benched. I'm just not sure the effort required to somehow make this option work would be worth it for a single player.

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Re: Getting Ahead Of The Shohei Ohtani Curve For 2018

Post by whale4evr » Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:23 pm

How is Bethancourt being handled this year? Not that anyone would be using him right now, but he could be a test case for Otani.

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Re: Getting Ahead Of The Shohei Ohtani Curve For 2018

Post by King of Queens » Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:33 pm

In the case of Bethancourt, he's listed as a catcher in the NFBC -- just as he is on the Padres roster http://m.mlb.com/sd/roster

This reminds me of the Kordell "Slash" Stewart situation from years ago in fantasy football. Stewart was listed as a QB on the official Steelers roster, but he played a lot of RB and WR. Many owners wanted to play him at WR, and get his QB stats (which were much higher than the typical WR). As I recall, the NFFC and others used his official designation, and owners could only use him at QB.

Bottom line: if Ohtani is listed by his 2018 major league team as a pitcher, he should only be usable in a pitching slot.

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Re: Getting Ahead Of The Shohei Ohtani Curve For 2018

Post by Yah Mule » Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:18 pm

Bronx Yankees wrote: I'm also OK with giving owners the option of treating Ohtani as a pitcher and a hitter simultaneously, but in that case he must take up one of the 14 hitter slots AND one of the nine pitcher slots when in the starting lineup as both. While this may be most reflective of how he likely will be used in MLB, I imagine that this is the much harder approach to implement. He would be one player for drafting purposes, but then for the season, he essentially would have to be divided up into Ohtani the pitcher and Ohtani the hitter, thereby giving owners the option to start both, bench both, or start one but not the other. Benches, which currently are programed to allow only seven players, would have to be expanded to eight to accommodate times when Ohtani the pitcher and Ohtani the hitter both are benched. I'm just not sure the effort required to somehow make this option work would be worth it for a single player.

Mike
He would definitely have to count as one of your 14 hitters and as one of your nine pitchers to use him both ways.

I would think the bench spot situation could be worked around. You're still only going to carry 30 (or 50) players.

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Re: Getting Ahead Of The Shohei Ohtani Curve For 2018

Post by Yah Mule » Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:20 pm

King of Queens wrote:In the case of Bethancourt, he's listed as a catcher in the NFBC -- just as he is on the Padres roster http://m.mlb.com/sd/roster

This reminds me of the Kordell "Slash" Stewart situation from years ago in fantasy football. Stewart was listed as a QB on the official Steelers roster, but he played a lot of RB and WR. Many owners wanted to play him at WR, and get his QB stats (which were much higher than the typical WR). As I recall, the NFFC and others used his official designation, and owners could only use him at QB.

Bottom line: if Ohtani is listed by his 2018 major league team as a pitcher, he should only be usable in a pitching slot.
I don't think it's analogous unless those people wanted to start him @ QB and another position, which would be the case with Otani, he would occupy two spots in your 23 man lineup.

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Re: Getting Ahead Of The Shohei Ohtani Curve For 2018

Post by Deadheadz » Thu Sep 21, 2017 9:42 am

After listening to the Sep 14 podcast Sleeper and The Bust it seems like there are two options for Otani.

Change the software to allow the hitting and pitching stats for ALL players.
-or-
Create separate Otani (H) and Otani (P) fantasy players and likely have different managers own Otani in the same league.

If you go to all the trouble of changing the software to include Otani's hitting and pitching stats you'll have to also live with all the 0-fer performances of all your other pitchers.

I really doubt fantasy players want to live with the effects of all their pitchers hitting stats counting. But it would add an interesting factor into drafts. Certain pitchers would gain a boost to their value while most would not.

Does anyone have a better idea as to how to deal with this issue?
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Re: Getting Ahead Of The Shohei Ohtani Curve For 2018

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Sep 21, 2017 10:21 am

He should start out as a Pitcher in draft rooms.
If qualifying at 10 games at another position, he qualifies as a hitter.
It would then be up to the owner each week, to use him as a Pitcher OR offensive player.
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Re: Getting Ahead Of The Shohei Ohtani Curve For 2018

Post by Texas Connection » Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:52 am

How would he work in cutline?

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Re: Getting Ahead Of The Shohei Ohtani Curve For 2018

Post by Deadheadz » Fri Sep 22, 2017 10:42 am

DOUGHBOYS wrote:He should start out as a Pitcher in draft rooms.
If qualifying at 10 games at another position, he qualifies as a hitter.
It would then be up to the owner each week, to use him as a Pitcher OR offensive player.
Interesting. So on a week when he's scheduled only 1-start and it's a tough matchup for his team, you might decide to use him as a hitter but in weeks where he's likely to win 1 or 2 starts you might choose to roster him as a pitcher.

At least that takes away the "have your cake and eat it too" advantage.
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