Junk

[DOUGHBOYS]

If everybody remembers, 'Stuff' is mostly fact (nothing is true ALL the time)
And 'Junk' is opinion.
This is all Junk...

The sporting press loves placing blame on players when there is a fight on the field.
[Personally, I loved everything that happened involving the fight between Strickland and Harper yesterday.
Harper's first thought was to admonish Strickland by yelling and pointing his bat.
It was Ruthian. "I'm going to hit you in about 5 seconds!!!"...He seemed to be saying in calling his shot.
Then, as he rushes to meet Strickland, he tears off his helmet.
"I'm so mad, I'm messing up my well-coiffed hair!!!"
Then throws the helmet.
"Well, that was aimed like a girl, but I'm still fighting you!"
Then both fight like they've never seen Roughned Odor.

I don't blame anybody.
Strickland hates Harper. That was an "I don't like you" pitch.
And Harper was pissed and wanted to do something about it.
Posey? What me worry!?
You guys wanna rumble? RUMBLE!
Every fantasy player owning Posey could have kissed him for not getting involved.
Morse and Samarduhjuh were so anxious to be stupid that they ended up with the best hit of the fight.
Didn't we see them in 'Home Alone' as the bad guys?
...

Mike Trout is hurt and not playing for two months.
Mike Trout is the one baseball player that we all root for.
He is Baseball. The guy who does everything right on the field and off .
Special.
Nobody wins when Trout gets hurt.
Even if you're winning your fantasy league and a Trout-driven team is behind you, we want to beat that team WITH Trout.
Darn sad.
...

We're a third of the way through the season.
Now is the time where we decide who the 'droppers' are and who the 'toppers' are.
Toppers are easy. We look at past seasons and have every reason to believe that Kershaw, Sale, and Scherzer will top other pitchers at the end of the year.
We don't have the same feelings about Ervin Santana, Jason Vargas, or Mike Leake.
These guys are having the same types of year that Rick Porcello and Kyle Hendricks (how are they doing this year?) had last year.
Does it last all year for them?
It can. Porcello and Hendricks are proof of that.
For some reason, I think Leake's magic continues while Santana and Vargas go back to being themselves.
No justification or stats, just gut.

Offensively, we have Mark Reynolds, Aaron Judge, Ryan Zimmerman, Michael Conforto, and Jake Lamb rubbing elbows with the Goldy's, Trout's, and Blackmon's of the first round.
Will it last?
Reynolds has re-fashioned his all or miss approach and swing.
But, I still believe he has had more luck than most and that he will soon drop.
Judge is fun to watch. That said, I can see pitchers catching up and envision a slump coming.
But, I believe that it won't last a long time and that he'll still finish with a heckuva year.
We're looking at a Trea Turner (whatever happened to that guy?) rise in drafts next year for Judge.
Conforto needed the chance. He is the one thing that has gone consistently right for the Mets this year.
Mr. Conforto, I don't know you, but if you ever get hurt, run to the other dugout and ask for political health asylum from the Mets.
Zimmerman...he'll get hurt. You know it and I know it...
Lamb. This kid could hit. He'll be taken in some drafts before Machado next year.
Hard to see Machado as a first rounder next year in under performing and losing SS eligibility.
Amazing how fast we move in Fantasy.

Next year's top 15 as of now?
Here's a guess as of today...and believe me, it'll sound silly within two months....
In no particular order (except Trout)

Mike Trout
Bryce Harper
Clayton Kershaw
Chris Sale
Max Scherzer
Paul Goldscmidt
Charlie Blackmon
Jose Altuve
Mookie Betts
Kris Bryant
Nolan Arenado
Aaron Judge
Freddie Freeman


I know. I know. That is only 13.
I can't finish it.
I cannot justify the last two spots.
Do you include first rounders from last year that have been hurt or under performing?
Yes, I'm talking about you Anthony Rizzo and Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson and Madison Bumgarner...
Or do we put those in that are doing admirable jobs so far like Dallas Keuchel or Eric Thames...
Or do we hold consistency as the best attribute and reward Corey Seager or Carlos Correa or Francisco Lindor or eek! Joey Votto...
I don't know. You decide. I can't.

...

I'll say it. The Cubs look like shit.
Arrieta is totally hittable. Hendricks has lost his mojo. Lackey is looking and throwing his age.
Schwarber is a good hitter in spurts. Hey Schwarbs, care to tell us when you'll spurt next?
The mixing and matching by Maddon last year, has turned into a lack of cohesiveness this year.
Baez should play everyday. At second base.
Russell should play every day at shortstop.
You want to move Heyward, Bryant, Zobrist, and Almora and now, Happ around?
Go ahead!
But do it at Kyle Schwarber's expense and just leave your keystone duo alone.
And fer crissakes, has Miguel Montero got pictures of Maddon with a prostitute?
Let Contreras play more one or two games without sitting, willya?
There is no continuity with this team at all on the field.

...

[Bronx Yankees]

Nice post. Just a quick suggestion to help you round out your early first round: Nolan Arenado. I am curious as to whether his omisssion was intentional or accidental. I've been wrong about a lot so far this season, but I'd still bet on Arenado returning first round value or something pretty close thereto when all is said and done.

Mike

[DOUGHBOYS]

Already there, Mike!

[KJ Duke]

Slide Carlos Correa in there. He could end this season looking like last year's Manny Machado.

And for the last spot I could see Billy Hamilton if he stays healthy all year ... 270, 100 runs and 80 SBs atop a potent Reds lineup is appealing. Many drafters will never consider him there, but those stats are worth it and it takes just one at the back end to make it happen.

[Bronx Yankees]

Already there, Mike!

Wow, I'm going blind. (Told you I've been wrong a lot this season. )

Mike

[KJ Duke]

Cody Bellinger is looking an awful lot like a lefty Kris Bryant. Doesn't seem too soon to project him in round one.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Agreed KJ. He is the real deal.
Since his call-up to the Majors, nobody has hit more homers.
I like that the usual suspect of home run hitters are being replaced.

Here is the list of 2016 home run leaders with 40 homers or more...
Trumbo
Cruz
Encarnacion
Dozier
Davis
Dozier
Carter
Arenado
Frazier

Here are the players with 20 homers this year....

Judge
Morrison
Bellinger
Smoak
Thames
Springer

A new and more exciting group. for sure.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Ok, it looks like we can update this list.
We had these players as probable first rounders next year...

Mike Trout
Bryce Harper
Clayton Kershaw
Chris Sale
Max Scherzer
Paul Goldscmidt
Charlie Blackmon
Jose Altuve
Mookie Betts
Kris Bryant
Nolan Arenado
Aaron Judge
Freddie Freeman

I'm guessing that Trout and Judge goes 1-2 in most drafts. Kershaw and Harper close behind.
Then, the 'usual suspects of Goldy, Arenado, Betts, Bryant, and the rest in no particular order.


We do have additions to first round status.
Two Astros have come to the forefront in Correa and Springer.
Cody Bellinger will also rate consideration.
So now we have 16 players and I'm betting the list will grow to 25 or so players who will see the first round.
If players like Rizzo, Machado, and Seager heat up, they're less than a heartbeat of being included as well.
I do believe that Miguel Cabrera and Edwin Encarnacion have seen the first round for the last time.
There are just so many home run hitters to choose from that Encarnacion is less special now.
Miggy is not the power source that used to accompany a high average.
Josh Donaldson has lost flavor with injury and average performance.
There are rumors that he could be traded as well. To Fantasy enthusiasts, that means a probable less suitable hitting venue.
Trea Turner, Madison Bumgarner, and Noah Syndergaard have injured themselves away from the first round.
And personally, I can't maintain the thought of drafting ANY New York Mets near the top of a draft.
They are fantasy quicksand. Hold your head up, Jake deGrom!
I'll revisit this in another month when preparing for the PreMature draft as this season concludes.

Have I missed anybody?

[Quahogs]

Possibly a very Altuve-ish Jose Ramirez... nice positions 2b/3b. Make a nice pick 16 at least!

[DOUGHBOYS]

Possibly a very Altuve-ish Jose Ramirez... nice positions 2b/3b. Make a nice pick 16 at least!

Yes. Very first roundable.

And to the millions (exaggerated sure, but it feels like it!) that have 'reminded' me, Joey Votto certainly deserves first round consideration.

So we have.....

Mike Trout
Bryce Harper
Clayton Kershaw
Chris Sale
Max Scherzer
Paul Goldscmidt
Charlie Blackmon
Jose Altuve
Mookie Betts
Kris Bryant
Nolan Arenado
Aaron Judge
Freddie Freeman
George Springer
Carlos Correa
Cody Bellinger
Jose Ramirez
Joey Votto

It may seem too long of a list. It isn't.
Some first rounders in one draft, will be selected in the second or third round of other drafts.
Last year, 31 different players were selected in the first round.
Admittedly, there are always the questionable first round picks, such as Aroldis Chapman last year.
There will always be a Maverick who thinks out of the box.
If that drafter had selected Judge in the first round, he would have been met with laughter.
He would be the one laughing now. Although he still would have paid too high of a price, we would have marvelled at his selection.

Just a note, the first round from this year has been mostly fair to drafters. Of course, there were injury hiccups like Bumgarner, Turner, and Trout. Machado and Donaldson have not put up expected statistics to their drafters, but every round will have pitfalls.
The second round being more of a killer.

Starling Marte- His owners, pissed

Miguel Cabrera- Little Miggy hitting better than Big Miggy? The horror!

Jonathon Villar- The song 'Brandy' was a one hit wonder too.

Noah Syndergaard- If considering a Met in top rounds, just say "Noah Way"!

Trevor Story- That partial year thing where he was super? An out and out outliar. (spelled correctly for fantasy usage)

Xander Bogaerts- Remember when he hit in front of David Ortiz? Good times...

Others taken in the second round include Pollock, Arrieta, Braun, GSanchez, and Dozier.

We'll do better this coming year, right?

[DOUGHBOYS]

One more name as we go into the break...
Giancarlo Stanton.
We almost take his power for granted.
The only thing that has stopped him from first roundedness is his penchant for injury.
This year, no injury and 26 homers with a .273 average. A 58/57 R/RBI category goodness as well.
Power hitters are becoming a dime a dozen, Stanton could stand above that crowd.