NY $1250 Auction Predictions....

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 8:51 am

Originally posted by fandango:

quote:Originally posted by fireballs:

Thats if Putz actually is healthy and Papelbon stays healthy. How about your starters behind Peavy without Papelbon now? Putz is more hurt then we think, Seattle has been scouting Armando Benitez and Linebrink....

Putz may be the biggest waste of money in 2007 Drafts.... [/QUOTE]I would agree with you on this with one thing to ponder. It is Bill Bavasi we are talking about he may be scouting Benitez to play right field and willing to give up Adam Jones and Clement to make it happen.

fandango · Post by **fandango** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 9:31 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by fandango:

quote:Originally posted by fireballs:

Thats if Putz actually is healthy and Papelbon stays healthy. How about your starters behind Peavy without Papelbon now? Putz is more hurt then we think, Seattle has been scouting Armando Benitez and Linebrink....

Putz may be the biggest waste of money in 2007 Drafts.... [/QUOTE]I would agree with you on this with one thing to ponder. It is Bill Bavasi we are talking about he may be scouting Benitez to play right field and willing to give up Adam Jones and Clement to make it happen. [/QUOTE]remember, pitchers were the biggest cheaters...they took more roids, HGH, and amphetamines than position players...thus you will see way more dissapointments in the reliever corps than anywhere else...

this is a good reason to spend as little as possible on closers....

fandango · Post by **fandango** » Sat Mar 24, 2007 12:51 pm

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by fandango:

quote:Originally posted by fireballs:

Thats if Putz actually is healthy and Papelbon stays healthy. How about your starters behind Peavy without Papelbon now? Putz is more hurt then we think, Seattle has been scouting Armando Benitez and Linebrink....

Putz may be the biggest waste of money in 2007 Drafts.... [/QUOTE]I would agree with you on this with one thing to ponder. It is Bill Bavasi we are talking about he may be scouting Benitez to play right field and willing to give up Adam Jones and Clement to make it happen. [/QUOTE]Dont Look Now, But Guess Who Got Invited Back To Camp From AAA........Brandon Wood, To Man 3rd Base......

ALL-IN JD · Post by **ALL-IN JD** » Sat Mar 24, 2007 12:55 pm

Same source that gave you the Linebrink to Red Sox deal?

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Sat Mar 24, 2007 1:02 pm

Originally posted by fireballs:

Same source that gave you the Linebrink to Red Sox deal? Funny you mention Linebrink- was bored and did a download on ADP- btw they now look correct.

The worst pick per my analysis in 28 drafts was Scott Linebrink going at pick 125 in the 9th round to a team. It is over 10 rounds before his avg pick- and do not forget his avg pick is actually skewed greatly by that outlier.

ALL-IN JD · Post by **ALL-IN JD** » Sat Mar 24, 2007 1:07 pm

9th round?? Someone must REALLY like him

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Sat Mar 24, 2007 1:37 pm

ok, assuming the new data is right, here is the overall ADP value analysis - as I indicated, KOQ did the best in the overall (negative numbers are goood). Note there were some players who did have an ADP, so they got a 450:

Kings of Queens -552.06

Quahogs -188.99

Mace and Bailey's A-kickers -160.77

The Brushbacks -64.52

LOS PIPAS GRANDE 27

God Our Team Sucks! 27.38

Team Johnson 41.26

Team Rock 79.11

CT and RT Main Event 126.79

Scott & Jay 134.66

BilLee 188.05

R&R COBRAS 197.38

PHILBYS 210.31

Ya GOTTA Believe 219.85

JOEYDMETS 252.38

Now, here is the more important top 10 Round Analysis:

Kings of Queens -13.62

Quahogs -13.27

The Brushbacks -9.61

Ya GOTTA Believe -5.92

Team Johnson 8.98

God Our Team Sucks! 9.38

PHILBYS 22.68

Mace and Bailey's A-kickers 29.18

LOS PIPAS GRANDE 35.47

R&R COBRAS 43.71

CT and RT Main Event 66.5

JOEYDMETS 74.95

Team Rock 92.85

Scott & Jay 114

BilLee 130.32

Now, here is the most important top 5 round analysis:

CT and RT Main Event -12.96

Ya GOTTA Believe -7.42

Quahogs -1.46

Team Johnson -1.05

The Brushbacks 1

Scott & Jay 2.43

Kings of Queens 2.8

God Our Team Sucks! 5.54

Team Rock 6.07

PHILBYS 8.46

R&R COBRAS 18.71

JOEYDMETS 19.03

Mace and Bailey's A-kickers 38.65

LOS PIPAS GRANDE 40.61

BilLee 45.47

This just goes to show you, if you are responsible for analysis, there is always a way to cut the data so you look good

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sat Mar 24, 2007 2:21 pm

king of queens is amazing, every year he is the KING of value, this year it will pay off.

King put your team out here if you get a chance, would like to see it.THESE rankings are just NY.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Sat Mar 24, 2007 4:37 pm

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

ok, assuming the new data is right, here is the overall ADP value analysis - as I indicated, KOQ did the best in the overall (negative numbers are goood). Note there were some players who did have an ADP, so they got a 450:

Kings of Queens -552.06

Quahogs -188.99

Mace and Bailey's A-kickers -160.77I'm assuming a lot of this "value" must have come late with Bonser, Igawa and Sowers in Rounds 21, 22 and 23.

Sebadiah23 · Post by **Sebadiah23** » Sat Mar 24, 2007 4:53 pm

Looks like I (Bailey) must have done pretty well ADP-wise in rounds 11-30, compared to 1-10, which is pretty much how I felt coming out of the draft, which is pretty cool that the numbers agreed. I was too stuck on filling a need with Mauer, Pierre, Lopez, and Hoffman, instead of taking the best player available. But on the other hand I'm trying to win a league, not an ADP contest. If you draft a guy who's +7.5 in ADP, that means you probably wouldn't get him if you waited. If he fits your team well you gotta pull the trigger and screw ADP.

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Sun Mar 25, 2007 4:35 am

Absolutely, ADP doesn't mean you made a great pick, or a pick appropriate for your draft. It just indicates that you got perceived value for your pick.

Spy