Leagues already drafted

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Southern Comfort
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Leagues already drafted

Post by Southern Comfort » Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:55 am

Of course new situation for everybody. What happens if this postponement lasts more than a couple weeks. We have thousands of dollars gambled on draft strategies that are no longer valid (IE injured players who dropped in adp past few months may be healthy by the time league starts) Any thoughts?

Cocktails and Dreams
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Re: Leagues already drafted

Post by Cocktails and Dreams » Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:11 pm

No skin in the game here, but basically the NFBC is in an impossible spot. There are guaranteed prizes that must be met in overall contests, people that will be disgruntled if they don't have the right strategy for the circumstances, and many other issues. I wish them well through these very difficult decisions they face. These are good men that are forced to make these brutal calls. I just hope that people can respect their calls and not judge them based on if it was to their benefit or not.

Attie
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Re: Leagues already drafted

Post by Attie » Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:17 pm

Really it’s no different than if the season had started on time in terms of previous drafts. Some drafts occurred in December and January where Sale and Judge were early round picks.......now they are hurt.......that’s the risk you take when you draft in the off season.

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Doctor Who
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Re: Leagues already drafted

Post by Doctor Who » Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:38 pm

Attie wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:17 pm
Really it’s no different than if the season had started on time in terms of previous drafts. Some drafts occurred in December and January where Sale and Judge were early round picks.......now they are hurt.......that’s the risk you take when you draft in the off season.
By this logic, nobody should draft until March. The entire landscape would change as far as prize pools etc.

Thurman15
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Re: Leagues already drafted

Post by Thurman15 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:50 am

Unread post by Cocktails and Dreams » Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:11 am

No skin in the game here, but basically the NFBC is in an impossible spot. There are guaranteed prizes that must be met in overall contests, people that will be disgruntled if they don't have the right strategy for the circumstances, and many other issues. I wish them well through these very difficult decisions they face. These are good men that are forced to make these brutal calls. I just hope that people can respect their calls and not judge them based on if it was to their benefit or not.


This is the best post I have seen (above) The NFBC is in an impossible situation and I will accept any decisions that are made. I wish there were more positive and understanding posts. Negativity will only breed more negativity. The workload for the admin people is almost impossible to handle. Thanks Greg, Tom, Darik and all the staff supporting the NFBC.

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Greg Ambrosius
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Re: Leagues already drafted

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:47 am

Southern Comfort wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:55 am
Of course new situation for everybody. What happens if this postponement lasts more than a couple weeks. We have thousands of dollars gambled on draft strategies that are no longer valid (IE injured players who dropped in adp past few months may be healthy by the time league starts) Any thoughts?
This is a fair post and I can only give you my response from a game operator's standpoint:

Whenever you draft you and everyone drafting in your league has the same knowledge and the same information about the players and the timeline of the season at that time. If you drafted early and took Chris Sale in the third round, you all knew about his health and his projections and his team status at the time, etc. EVERYONE in that draft room had that same knowledge at that time and it was a competitive fight.

Now, when looking at the overall contest, if you picked Sale then you got screwed. If you drafted him last week in the 16th round you may have gotten a break. But if you drafted last week and Sale fell to the 16th round he fell because EVERYONE in that draft room had the same info on him, the same health info on him, the same knowledge that Mookie Betts was no longer on his team and you all drafted accordingly. Was it better to draft later than earlier? In this case, yes. But each day the playing field switches (right Trey Mancini owners?) and we make the draft decisions based on the knowledge we have at that time.

You may think people drafting later have an advantage, but why? When they draft at that time they all will have the same knowledge about Sale and every other play and will draft them accordingly. And without spring training games beforehand and fewer player interviews, we may actually have less knowledge in a few weeks, not more. The whole game has changed man. ADPs might change. Maybe they don't.

Our history of national contests has not shown a trend of everyone winning titles if you draft later, or everyone winning titles if you draft earlier. National champions are mixed from all over, so whenever you draft, be as knowledgeable as possible and be ready to make those decisions based on the facts of that day. That's all we can do and then we mix it up in the overall with starting lineup decisions, FAAB pickups, etc. There's a lot more to winning a national title or even a league title than when you pick these first 30 players. Am I right?

Thanks and good luck.
Greg Ambrosius
Founder, National Fantasy Baseball Championship
General Manager, Consumer Fantasy Games at SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @GregAmbrosius

Ultrarunner
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Re: Leagues already drafted

Post by Ultrarunner » Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:41 am

If not mistaken the very well renowned HOFer, Lindy Hinkleman won the 2019 DC OA from the Kenyon Premature Draftulation DC...the first DC of the year.

We all know the risk of drafting early or late. We play with the teams we drafted and the hands we picked for ourselves.

Roll the 2020 online stuff as they stand. If you want to make a change with what we all know now, enter a new DC or online event and prognosticate well

Bronx Yankees
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Re: Leagues already drafted

Post by Bronx Yankees » Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:11 pm

Agree 100%.
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Yah Mule
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Re: Leagues already drafted

Post by Yah Mule » Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:06 pm

Great post, Chad.

steveymer2
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Re: Leagues already drafted

Post by steveymer2 » Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:22 am

I'm not entirely sure how to think about this, but I don't think that the points made here completely negate the problem. As I read it, the two main reasons given for letting already-drafted leagues play out are (A) the fact that everyone in a given draft has the same info and (B) the fact that there's historically been no major advantage to drafting early or drafting late.

As originally presented, the problem is that "we have thousands of dollars gambled on draft strategies that are no longer valid." Since we still don't know what's going to happen to the schedule, we don't know yet to what extent that's true. But if there are fundamental changes to our game that render early draft strategies moot, and couldn't have been reasonably expected, that seems to me a reason to cancel those leagues.

To take an example that is hopefully just hypothetical, imagine that what MLB decides to do is replace the season with some kind of tournament. Players on eliminated teams wouldn't accrue fantasy stats, which would fundamentally alter drafting strategies (avoid Orioles at all costs!). In that case, it's still true that everyone drafted with the same information and that early drafters have won in the past. But all leagues that drafted before that change was announced would obviously (at least, I hope this is obvious) need to be canceled. To take a more directly analogous example, suppose that MLB suddenly decides to shorten games to 5 innings. That would also fundamentally alter the fantasy game in a way early drafters couldn't foresee, and therefore invalidate early drafts. If games were shortened to 8 innings, maybe not (SPs would retain more value than the 5 inning case, for example).

If the season is cut in half, that's close enough to cutting individual games in half that I'm not sure early drafts should stand. If it's 140 games, maybe they should. I don't really know. And we obviously can't say for sure until the changes are actually announced. But I think we need to acknowledge that some possible changes would invalidate early drafts, regardless of the fact that everyone in those drafts had the same info and that early drafters have done well in the past. If it becomes true that "the whole game has changed," as Greg put it, then leagues that drafted for the original game shouldn't be entered into the new, fundamentally different game.

BartoloColonsFitbit
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Re: Leagues already drafted

Post by BartoloColonsFitbit » Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:45 am

Probably should have a contingency plan in case the season isn't played at all. I know this is a polarizing topic, but the possibility is real.

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Gekko
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Re: Leagues already drafted

Post by Gekko » Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:53 am

Cocktails and Dreams wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:11 pm
No skin in the game here, but basically the NFBC is in an impossible spot. There are guaranteed prizes that must be met in overall contests, people that will be disgruntled if they don't have the right strategy for the circumstances, and many other issues. I wish them well through these very difficult decisions they face. These are good men that are forced to make these brutal calls. I just hope that people can respect their calls and not judge them based on if it was to their benefit or not.
+1,000. Chad, this is probably the best post you’ve ever made.

COZ
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Re: Leagues already drafted

Post by COZ » Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:11 pm

steveymer2 wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:22 am
I'm not entirely sure how to think about this, but I don't think that the points made here completely negate the problem. As I read it, the two main reasons given for letting already-drafted leagues play out are (A) the fact that everyone in a given draft has the same info and (B) the fact that there's historically been no major advantage to drafting early or drafting late.

As originally presented, the problem is that "we have thousands of dollars gambled on draft strategies that are no longer valid." Since we still don't know what's going to happen to the schedule, we don't know yet to what extent that's true. But if there are fundamental changes to our game that render early draft strategies moot, and couldn't have been reasonably expected, that seems to me a reason to cancel those leagues.

To take an example that is hopefully just hypothetical, imagine that what MLB decides to do is replace the season with some kind of tournament. Players on eliminated teams wouldn't accrue fantasy stats, which would fundamentally alter drafting strategies (avoid Orioles at all costs!). In that case, it's still true that everyone drafted with the same information and that early drafters have won in the past. But all leagues that drafted before that change was announced would obviously (at least, I hope this is obvious) need to be canceled. To take a more directly analogous example, suppose that MLB suddenly decides to shorten games to 5 innings. That would also fundamentally alter the fantasy game in a way early drafters couldn't foresee, and therefore invalidate early drafts. If games were shortened to 8 innings, maybe not (SPs would retain more value than the 5 inning case, for example).

If the season is cut in half, that's close enough to cutting individual games in half that I'm not sure early drafts should stand. If it's 140 games, maybe they should. I don't really know. And we obviously can't say for sure until the changes are actually announced. But I think we need to acknowledge that some possible changes would invalidate early drafts, regardless of the fact that everyone in those drafts had the same info and that early drafters have done well in the past. If it becomes true that "the whole game has changed," as Greg put it, then leagues that drafted for the original game shouldn't be entered into the new, fundamentally different game.
Well said. And I think, as has been said, early drafts are covered by the cancellation policy in the rules where it states that SportsHub Network reserves the right to terminate any league or game at any time due to any.....interruption of the season or any other unforeseen situation. Unfortunately, I think this interruption of the season irregardless of the length gives the NFBC the legal right to cancel all leagues right now. And I feel given the current situation & the likely cancellation of games until, I am assuming at least May 1st, & likely beyond, all prior drafts should be rendered null & void right now due to the interruption of the season. When, or if, games begin again people should be allowed to make a decision to enter drafts again when a more definitive timeline and number of games to be played is known. Unfortunately, I am in the camp that believes things are going to get worse before they get better & that this is extending well beyond May & possible cancellation of months, if not the entire season. I hope I'm wrong. But all prior drafts have to be rendered null & void & cancelled in my opinion due to even this 2 week cancellation of games. However, I am fine with waiting for this decision until more information is known.
COZ

"Baseball has it share of myths, things that blur the line between fact & fiction....Abner Doubleday inventing the game, Babe Ruth's Called Shot, Sid Finch's Fastball, the 2017 Astros...Barry Bonds's 762 HR's" -- Tom Verducci

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Greg Ambrosius
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Re: Leagues already drafted

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:30 pm

BartoloColonsFitbit wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:45 am
Probably should have a contingency plan in case the season isn't played at all. I know this is a polarizing topic, but the possibility is real.
This isn't a polarizing issue at all: If the season isn't played at all EVERYONE gets their money back!!! I mean, what other decision is there? Of course we will refund everyone IF THE SEASON ISN'T PLAYED AT ALL.

Until we know more, the rest is all speculation. I just got back from Ground Zero, so I see how serious this is. I'm back in the office because nobody in my family wants me to breath around them for 5 days. We can all speculate on how many games will be played or what MLB will do or what NFBC should do with any teams that drafted 2 weeks ago, no 3 weeks ago, no 3 months ago, no...... until we're blue in the face but we'll make decisions when we have FACTS.

As of right now, MLB is taking a TWO WEEK pause. Nobody is playing on April 7th, so let's just all wait for Rob Manfred to give us a little more direction on when we start, if we start, if we extend the season and the rest before we're allowed to make intelligent decisions. For that I thank you.
Greg Ambrosius
Founder, National Fantasy Baseball Championship
General Manager, Consumer Fantasy Games at SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @GregAmbrosius

BartoloColonsFitbit
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Re: Leagues already drafted

Post by BartoloColonsFitbit » Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:08 pm

Polarizing as in the severity. I never said Nfbc wouldnt refund everyone but you as a business should be prepared for that possibility. Some people think it’s the end of the world, others think the virus be gone in two weeks. I work for a State Health Department and work with some pretty sharp people. I think this is going to be rolling cancellations instead of a one and done. The virus may slack off enough in the summer to play baseball (very possibly without fans), but also could return in the fall. You are right, this is a fluid situation and the game is changing as we get more and more information.

As far as an abbreviated season goes, I’m behind whatever decision is made.


Greg Ambrosius wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:30 pm
BartoloColonsFitbit wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:45 am
Probably should have a contingency plan in case the season isn't played at all. I know this is a polarizing topic, but the possibility is real.
This isn't a polarizing issue at all: If the season isn't played at all EVERYONE gets their money back!!! I mean, what other decision is there? Of course we will refund everyone IF THE SEASON ISN'T PLAYED AT ALL.

Until we know more, the rest is all speculation. I just got back from Ground Zero, so I see how serious this is. I'm back in the office because nobody in my family wants me to breath around them for 5 days. We can all speculate on how many games will be played or what MLB will do or what NFBC should do with any teams that drafted 2 weeks ago, no 3 weeks ago, no 3 months ago, no...... until we're blue in the face but we'll make decisions when we have FACTS.

As of right now, MLB is taking a TWO WEEK pause. Nobody is playing on April 7th, so let's just all wait for Rob Manfred to give us a little more direction on when we start, if we start, if we extend the season and the rest before we're allowed to make intelligent decisions. For that I thank you.

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NorCalAtlFan
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Re: Leagues already drafted

Post by NorCalAtlFan » Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:50 pm

believe you me, i'm not the most optimistic person regarding the situation the world is in right now. but what concerns me almost as much as the actual virus is the amount of small businesses that are impacted as a result of this new world. and i certainly can empathize with what greg, tom, and darik are going through. let's take a moratorium on the doom and gloom regarding previously drafted leagues until there is way more clarity on the issue. they have enough on their plate right now. we're all in this together, and a little positivity can go a long way at this time.

Ultrarunner
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Re: Leagues already drafted

Post by Ultrarunner » Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:18 am

NorCalAtlFan wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:50 pm
believe you me, i'm not the most optimistic person regarding the situation the world is in right now. but what concerns me almost as much as the actual virus is the amount of small businesses that are impacted as a result of this new world. and i certainly can empathize with what greg, tom, and darik are going through. let's take a moratorium on the doom and gloom regarding previously drafted leagues until there is way more clarity on the issue. they have enough on their plate right now. we're all in this together, and a little positivity can go a long way at this time.
Plus one

I have several athletes I coach and friends I work with who are small business owners. They’re having to get creative to stay operational and viable.

craiggebz
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Re: Leagues already drafted

Post by craiggebz » Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:49 am

Sorry if I missed it, but will waivers run the 22nd?

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Re: Leagues already drafted

Post by King of Queens » Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:30 am

craiggebz wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:49 am
Sorry if I missed it, but will waivers run the 22nd?
From the NFBC OFFICIAL STATEMENT thread that's pinned to the top of the message board:

==========================================================================
CANCELLED: The first scheduled FAAB period of Sunday, March 22nd is cancelled for all NFBC events.

This was set up for early drafters to get FAAB in the Sunday before Opening Day on Thursday, March 26th. We will have a FAAB period for those drafters before Opening Day, but we can't specify that actual date until we know when Opening Day is happening. Once we know that we will adjust and post the new first FAAB date.

We just don't want everyone to do FAAB every Sunday for weeks and weeks. That's just more work and not the intended use of this first FAAB period. So stay tuned and we'll post that new FAAB date when we can.

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