NFBC Draft Day Saga

[Captain Hook]

Greg asked some of us to comment on our drafts, so with permission from www.fantasybaseball.com I am reprinting my article there on the main draft (I have two other articles there on the AL/NL auction leagues and on the Ultimate auction league).

Obviously since the draft we lost a starter but gained a closer with Papelbon's situation in Boston, so that changes a few comments in the original article.



PVH





NFBC Draft Day Saga



By Perry Van Hook

FantasyBaseball.com



After two months of study, mock drafts, some spring training games and pages and pages of rankings and notes, I was in Las Vegas for the drafts for the National Fantasy Baseball Championship.



In the main event, I would be partnered by Josh Paley of BaseballHQ and former CDM winner. Josh and I first decided to join forces in last year’s NFBC main event and despite odd reactions from our peers; we got along fine despite coming up short in the 2006 season. But, we did learn a lot – about the NFBC and in working with each other. So when we finally got our draft slot at #10, we tried to forecast our choices. In most ADP lists, we would either be left a choice of 3B – David Wright or Miguel Cabrera, or OF – Vladimir Guerrero or Carlos Beltran. Certainly all would be fine choices.



But for starters, Josh wanted to launch the roster of “The Swinging Paleyontologists” (last year the team was “Plan du Vin” so it was his turn) with Chase Utley. As you have already read on the message boards or will soon in an upcoming article, I do not think Utley is a first round choice. In fact while the four players mentioned above are all good choices, my personal strategy distillation had led me to the conclusion that since Jimmy Rollins would not make it past the turn at the end of round one/beginning of round two, that drafters at the back end of the first round should select him and then take the best hitter available in the second round. In fact taking it one step further, while Sizemore and Holliday would be long shots to slip to 2-6, you never know what taking a player that other drafters thought would be available would do to their choices. However should form hold, it was pretty clear to me that Cub 1B Derrek Lee was the right choice – pairing him with Rollins for the first two picks would net 50+ HR and 50+ SB along with most of/if not more than 200 Runs and RBI and a .300 batting average.



Dealing with a partner in these events is a lot like managing a relationship – lots of compromises towards a common goal, so at our breakfast meeting on Saturday morning, I offered the olive branch by saying that unless someone had slipped too far and IF Utley was available, I would give him the first pick. Fortunately for partnership morale, Utley went at 1-9 and now our choice was Cabrera or Wright (Josh was not enamored by the Rollins plan and by that time I knew Todd was headed in that direction). We took Cabrera because of all those players I believe he has the most Upside – he could hit 40+ instead of 30+HR and is a monster in R, RBI, and BA while still adding a handful of stolen bases.



At 2-6, we were both clear on D. Lee as there were no surprise slips (Rollins of course went at 2-1). At 3-10 we were both in agreement on Texas shortstop Michael Young, who should go over 100 RBI if he is in fact slotted third in the Ranger’s lineup.



Mauer and VMart were long gone and sadly Brian Roberts had been taken by the Morgan clan at 3-9 (otherwise we might have taken him over Young), so absent a clear SB play we rostered Brian McCann. While last year’s numbers were good, McCann actually has some clear upside and we now had a huge BA anchor in our first four picks. We did need to add some speed though and were happy that Felipe Lopez slid to 5-10. We would need to add more bags later AND THIS IS THE CONUNDRUM – if you don’t emerge from the first four rounds with at least one third of your SB target, you will have to guess correctly (or just flat out reach) when to draft outfielders like Taveras, Freel, Roberts or Duffy.



After five solid hitting picks it was time to grab at least a couple of high strikeout, good skill starting pitchers and I thought we were lucky to get Brett Myers at 6-6 and then Cole Hamels at 7-10. After some debate about closers – we had agreed we did not need to reach for the top end in the fourth or fifth rounds as many drafters would; and noticing that several ranked below him had already been taken, we decided the strikeout potential and draft value was right for Brad Lidge and selected him at 8-6. After those three anchors we looked to go back to offense, but in this particular draft (Las Vegas 9) the hitting that remained did not offer the value at 9-10. True, we did not yet have an outfielder, but there was a glut of “good” ($15-20 projected earnings) outfielders that would still be there and with the solid infield base (we could shift Lopez to 2B after week two of the season), we saw another pitcher that could potentially give us more value – welcome Jonathan Papelbon to the roster. (If you read my NFBC auction review there are three solid ways for Pap to far out earn this draft position)



Nick Markakis was the first of those OF we took at 10-6. Absent some SB, Markakis will likely be a “baseline” play at the other four categories and has tremendous upside this year. As our pick in round eleven approached, the outfielder group was still very strong and our pitching staff was well anchored, so we picked off Dodger catcher Russell Martin there – the better remaining catchers had started to go and this was the last spot to get nine or ten SB from a backstop and still be solid in the other categories. On the turn we were glad to draft Raul Ibanez at 12-6, a solid 25+ HR and 100+ RBI with a good BA. Our next two picks were two more of those $15+ outfielders: Carlos Quentin at 13-10 and Jeremy Hermida at 14-6. Both are solid favorites for 20+HR and double digit stolen bases.



We drafted Cardinals starter Anthony Reyes at 15-10, and were now halfway through the draft with this configuration: C-2; CI-2; MI-2; OF-4; SP-4; RP-1

We would likely be alternating hitting and pitching picks while we tried (in vain so far) to add more stolen bases and more saves (we knew we had to get Dan Wheeler to not only back up Lidge in Houston, but perhaps give us two closers if Lidge were to be traded).



At 16-6 we made a great pick based on value, upside and roster flexibility since the Giant’s Rich Aurilia qualifies at 1B, SS, and 3B and is a stone, cold lock for 20+HR. We put him at CI for now with the plan to move him to MI after Lopez qualified at 2B giving us time to wait on a “starting” second baseman.



At 17-10 we could no longer ignore the immense potential in stats – even if it is for half a season and selected Roger Clemens. We drafted the Rocket around that spot last year and together with Francisco Liriano they had given us a tremendous shot in the rotation – in fact we would have been 2nd in our league and close to the overalls had Liriano not gone down with the arm injury.



Because he was in the lineup more at DH than 3B last year in his brief callup with Cleveland, the Padres new 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff only could be drafted at UT in the NFBC this year – but he would provide plenty of HR potential there and fit well with Aurilia for our roster flexibility and joined us at 18-6. At 19-10, we took 2B Adam Kennedy and hopefully some sorely need stolen bases; and at 20-6 finally pulled the trigger on Wheeler.



Round 21 brought us Met rookie SP Mike Pelfrey; in 22 we snagged OF (soon to be 1B) Casey Blake and at 23-10 we drafted the oft rumored tradable, very good set up pitcher and potential closer Scott Linebrink. We would have liked one more named closer, but with Wheeler and Linebrink we had good, reliable pitchers with save upside and we would try to add more in the reserve picks and through free agency.



While not required, we had actually drafted a legal roster in the first twenty three rounds – you will see the reserves listed – obviously a pitcher to replace Clemens at the start of the season and other potential starters to stream in for two start weeks plus a few extra hitters.





So here is the full team as drafted: (round) in parens

Catchers – McCann (4) and Martin (11)

Corner Infield – D. Lee (2), M. Cabrera (1), and Aurilia (16)

Middle Infield – Kennedy (19), M. Young (3), and F. Lopez (5)

Outfield – Markakis (10), Ibanez (12), Quentin (13), Hermida (14), and Blake (22)

Utility – Kouzmanoff (18)

Reserves – Thorman (24) and Biggio (29)



Starting Pitchers – Myers (6), Hamels (7), Papelbon (9), Reyes (15), Clemens (17), and Pelfrey (21)

Relief Pitchers – Lidge (8), Wheeler (20), and Linebrink (23)

Reserves – Greinke (25), Nolasco (26), Kuo (27), Al Reyes (28), and Adam Miller (30)



Overall Analysis & Notes:

1) Yes, short on stolen bases, but we may be able to add and all other hitting categories are very strong

2) As I said in the text, I would like to have another closer, but if Al Reyes can get a few in Tampa, or Linebrink becomes a closer, or Lidge gets traded, the deficiency disappears naturally. If not we will be trolling the FA list.

3) The other pitching categories are very strong – especially ERA and WHIP giving us the leeway to stream starters and be better than W and K targets.

4) Some very strong upside in many categories, so aside from doing well in our league we have the potential to go much higher on the 1-375 scale.

5) We don’t care where the Rocket lands – as long as he pitches this year he will be a strong plus. Adam Miller has been lights out in spring training and while he will start the year in AAA Buffalo, he will be back up (and hopefully we can save the roster spot, but if not at least he will be in the pool for our league before others)



I am not sure as of this writing how we will have updates on our NFBC teams, but whether blog or Premium Forum for updates we will do something so you can see how teams that Jason, Todd and I drafted fare. I certainly will answer any other question on the boards.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Good post Perry and good luck with that team...and Josh as your co-manager!! I assume that Todd is going to post an analysis of his team soon and he can add it to this thread if he'd like. Since he grabbed Jimmy Rollins at No. 8 overall and you had the same strategy but didn't implement it, what was his/your rationale for Rollins so high? And did everyone else who got him at 16 or so get a HUGE bargain with him? I look forward to Todd's analysis as well.



Those 30 rounds really can be a chess match, can't they? Good stuff.

[Team Herron]

As I sit here working towards a long-night at the office, I just finished Perry's well written verse on his draft. As a competitor of Perry's in LV #9 (from the 12 hole) I thought Id drop a similar synopsis, although clearly not as well written.



In planning for the draft, I had the fortune of drawing the same draft position for both the Main Event and the Ultimate - #12. While not my first KDS selection, the position grew on me in advance of the draft as I like the way the team sets up from the back-end of the draft this year.



In our pre-draft analysis, I concluded that while Perry may believe an abundance of $15-$20 dollar earners in the outfield, I see a whole bunch of stiffs this year. More than in year’s past, I find the OF depth incredibly limited and went in with a plan to draft outfielders early and often. In turn, I would need to find pitching in the middle rounds and take my chances up the middle later in the draft.



As round 1 got underway, we were not shaken by a myriad of surprises. Thankfully, we weren’t force into the dilemma of Utley and Santana both falling to #12, as we intended to not draft either – but they went off the board at #9 and #4, respectively. We were hoping for either Beltran or Vlad would fall to the 12th spot. While Beltran went off the board at #7, Vlad was available so we began our assault on the OF with his selction.



Our plan for Round 2 was to back up Vlad or Beltran with Holiday or Sizemore, assuming Teixeira and Hafner would be gone on the turn. It played out to plan, as pick 2-3 was Sizemore, leaving us Matt Holliday as OF #2.



For Round 3 we had planned on preferably filling our need in SB with Figgins with a backup plan of getting production from 1B. We watched Figgins get taken out from underneath us at 3-11, so we were pushed to fill the need at first base. We were pleased to take Carlos Delgado at 3-12 and look for speed later. Later, was one round later when Juan Pierre survived the turn to make it back to us at 4-4. We had our 3rd OF and had a big push towards our SB goals.



We planned for Rounds 5 and 6 to be an integral pick for us in the draft. We truly wanted to get a 4th OF here unless something knocked our socks off. Preferably, we wanted a speed power combo if something was available. Additionally, we had to get some stats from our middle infield – knowing we couldn’t chase it all at the end. e decided to reach for a player that we targeted in the draft here, and went on a limb with Mike Cameron at 5-12. We could have waited here, but not too much value fell off the board behind us here and we were able to take Ian Kinsler at 6-4.



Rounds 7-8 were set for us to either round out our corner infield or begin to build a pitching staff. As our 7th pick approached we counted 10 pitchers we liked, so rather than build the staff now we chose to get more hitting. We took Adrian Gonzalez at 7-11 and backed him up with Aubrey Huff at 8-4, as our 5th OF or our 3b.



Through 8 rounds, we had a lot of hitting and no pitching. We looked like this:



1b) Delgado, Carlos

3b) Huff, Aubrey

CI) Gonzalez, Adrian

2b) Kinsler, Ian

OF) Guerrero, Vlad

OF) Holliday, Matt

OF) Pierre, Matt

OF) Cameron, Mike



We like the team a lot – IF we could get a decent pitching staff. So we set out to do just that beginning in Round 9. We selected pitchers at 9-12, 10-4 and 11-12 with AJ Burnett, Mike Mussina and Javier Vazquez, respectively.



By Round 12 we began to debate positional need and more pitching as we have already missed out on the closers. At 12-12 we took our first catcher with AJ Pierzynski. We used Round 13 to get more pitching with our SP sleeper of the year Adam Wainwright at 13-12. Pick 14-4 was used to fill out our catcher position with Jason Varitek.



Round 15 we found Brad Penny on the board, giving us 5 good starting pitchers. No real Ace of the staff, but nothing to sneeze at either. We like the upside with this staff. By 16-4, we were getting deparate to put some saves on the board and took our most likely closer-to-be Akinori Otsuka.



We looked for value over the next few rounds and were able to add: Brad Wilkerson (17-12), Nick Punto (18-4), David Weathers (19-12 and yes, hes a bum).



Unlike Perry, we did not look to fill our starting roster with the first 23 picks. Rather, we couldn’t ignore the value on the board and took OF Garrett Anderson at 20-4



The rest of our draft was rather uneventful as we took positional fillers and closer-to-be candidates. Our final roster looks like:



C Pierzynski, AJ

C Varitek, Jason

1B Delgado, Carlos

3B Huff, Aubrey (3b/OF)

CI Gonzalez, Adrian

2B Kinsler, Ian

SS Punto, nICK (3b/OF)

MI Hudson, Orlando

OF Guerrero, Vlad

OF Holliday, Matt

OF Pierre, Juan

OF Cameron, Mike

OF Wilkerson, Brad

UT Anderson, Garrett



P Burnett, AJ

P Mussina, Mike

P Vazquez, Javier

P Penny, Brad

P Wainwright, Adam

P Duchsherer, Justin

P Rodney, Fernando

P Weathers, David

P Otsuka, Akinori



Uribe, Juan

Sweeney, Mike

Broussard, Ben

Correia, Kevin

Mulder, Mark (DL)

Johnson, Josh (DL)

Wuertz, Michael





All in all, we like our team (BaseballMafia.com). We sought out to draft 1150 runs and RBIS with 280+ HRs 160+ steals and a .285+ average. By our calculations, we did just that. Our ratios will be good and we will be competitive in Wins and K’s if we play the waiver wire right. We need help in Saves, so looking for something to break right for us in the bullpen.



It was a well-paced draft with plenty of good players. Good luck to all.



Jesse

[Team Herron]

I suck - not that it matters - but we took Orlando Hudson Round 15 - so everybody after that went a round later than the synopsis reads. File that in the who cares file.

[nydownunder]

Lets see if I can make this sound interesting...



Sitting at 1.10 I was pretty comfortable that Miguel Cabrera would be available. That was until I reviewed previous drafts of managers in my league. To my disappointment Team #8 had picked him in both of the previous 2 years. Okay so 1.8 is on the clock and all of a sudden a bit of commotion stirs. Team #8 is no where to be found. Bizarre! They were there 5 minutes ago. Once 45 or 60 seconds elapsed team #9 was on the clock and my head was circling the Javitz center hoping they would not return. They didn't and I pounced: "Miguel Cabrera!". After team #11 picks, team #8 returns for their pick and their first words are "Cabrera"! Whew, things look to be going my way.



My early plan was all about AVG and/or balance! With Holliday gone at 1.11, our next options at 2.6 was Sizemore or Ichiro. With Grady gone, Ichiro is the man! Konerko was the object of my desire at 3.10 but to no avail. No worries, Michael Young was my secondary target. So coming back on the turn I start to notice the league trend: OFFENSE,OFFENSE,OFFENSE. I mean everybody was in on it! I was stuck: options 1,2,3,4,5 and even my round 5 guy (Dunn who went at 4.1) were all gone. So I reached a bit and grabbed Fielder at 4.6. So I plug my players into my computer and everything looks pretty good thus far. Computer power check, good!



I forget who I was lining up at #5 at this stage because besides Baldelli and Taveras, which I targeted in round #6, I really didn't like much of what was left on offense. Well when Baldelli went at 5.9 right before me, I panicked a bit. I figured with Baldelli gone there was a good chance I would get no value out of pick #6 from offense. So in my mind I had no choice but to grab Taveras at 5.10. OH GOD...my computer has less than 5 minutes of power left. WHAT THE HELL, we're only 5 rounds into this, WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED? Dunno, maybe my excel programs were a drain on power. BIG FILES!!! I panic as my 2 files are only saved on the hard drive. In slow motion I get them copied to the portable E:/ drive and get my backup computer going. Whew! Saved..now I do a semi-rush job on pick #6. I knew I was low on HR and RBI...so Sexson goes at 6.6. Not what I wanted or expected, but I sold my soul to the devil fro the second straight year.



The next 3 rounds went according to my plan: starting pitchers 1, 2, and 3 in Haren 7.10, Schmidt 8.6, and lucky enough to get Schilling at 9.10. Myers, Sabathia and Harden were my first 3 targets of a group of 10-12 pitchers for these rounds.



Oh, by the way, I planned to punt saves going into the draft.



Now with Chris B. Young going at 8.3, yes that's no misprint, and with Teahen and Overbay off the board, my second panic pick was Corey Hart at 10.6. I really liked his 5 category contribution. The other targeted offenseive players at this point I knew had a chance to servive until my 12th and 13th rounds. With many SP's having gone off the board I didn't want to risk R.Hill not falling to me in round 12. So he goes at 11.10. With my second computer now at 50%, my projections tell me I am still deficient on HR and RBI's. "Oh God! I can't really be thinking this." Oh yeah, Mr. Bat (Pat Burrell) goes at 12.6. The thought of Sexson and Burrell in the same lineup almost made me lose my lunch at this stage. No worries, my AVG is still holding up extremely well.



Low and behold, many quality 3B's are still available at 13.10. I chose Beltre over Blalock, Ensberg, and E.Chavez. Good thing I grabbed my 2nd 3B here as the remaining three went off the board in the next 5 picks. At 14.10 I went with best avilable SP: Erving Santana.



15, 16, 17, and 18 is where things got interesting for me and where my draft may have made a big difference. I wasn't dead set on grabbing Zumaya in this draft as he projected as a 13th or 14th rounder, but thought what the hell at 15.10. With Estrada gone for my 16th pick, I took a chance on Roger Clemens at 16.6. I figured he wouldn't make it back to me. I really didn't think Ronny Paulino would either so that was my toughest decision of the draft thus far. The right one however as Paulino happened to fall to me at 17.10. I looked pretty balanced by round 18 and no quality SP's were on the board that wouldn't fall to me later. 18.6 was High Risk - High Reward: BJ Upton. At #19 I target Victorino, Murton, and Kubel in that order. Victorino become OF #5 at 19.10. In fear of losing my targeted middle infielders in the next couple rounds Kelly Johnson goes at 20.6.



Rounds 21-30 go Ol.Perez, Kubel, C.Vargas, Y.Betancourt, B.Wilson, J.Baker, J.Lane, K.Wells, Y.Molina, and M.Ellis (2 wk rental until Johnson and/or Upton get 2B eligibility).



Overall happy, but very surprised on how the draft went: ALL OFFENSE with SP and RP going later than expected. A bit low on HR (10/15 pts) and low ERA and WHIP (10/15 pts) when using low end projections. If Upton and Clemens work out it's a pretty solid team and bench...



...albeit Saves...I'll figure something out. And the computers were all out of juice by the 27th round.



[ March 28, 2007, 08:09 PM: Message edited by: nydownunder ]

[King of Queens]

Originally posted by nydownunder:

Lets see if I can make this sound interesting...



Sitting at 1.10 I was pretty comfortable that Miguel Cabrera would be available. That was until I reviewed previous drafts of managers in my league. To my disappointment Team #8 had picked him in both of the previous 2 years. Okay so 1.8 is on the clock and all of a sudden a bit of commotion stirs. Team #8 is no where to be found. Bizarre! They were there 5 minutes ago. Once 45 or 60 seconds elapsed team #9 was on the clock and my head was circling the Javitz center hoping they would not return. They didn't and I pounced: "Miguel Cabrera!". After team #11 picks, team #8 returns for their pick and their first words are "Cabrera"! Whew, things look to be going my way.You've got to be kidding me -- an owner left the draft table for their first pick???? UN-BE-LIEV-AB-LE.

[SluggoJD]

Wow, great write-ups guys! This looks like fun, so I guess I'll start typing lol....

[SluggoJD]

This is for all the losers out there.



Mission Impossible IV, LV6...



John Dean here, formerly known as the Mighty Bozos. The clowns were awesome 5 years ago in the Reggie Jackson Baseball Challenge (2nd out of over 5000 teams), highly respectable in their first year of CDM's Diamond Challenge 4 years ago (won league, 250-team division, and around 31st overall), and then something happened...the clowns began to act like clowns...



3 years ago, relied on Shandler and others for projections, and sucked.



2 years ago, signed up as team #299, studied for 1 week, and really sucked lol.



Last year, went back to Shandler's stuff (and others), believed his hype about Marcus Giles, Reggie Sanders not being over the hill, drafted Santana first, Rollins 2nd, panic set in, Glaus 3rd, Giles 4th, and it all went downhill.



Decided to ditch the clowns, and dedicate my life to doing better this year...began after Thanksgiving, forecast every single legitimate player myself (like I used to), ran statistical analysis of past standings, importance of one category over another, round $ values, and all sorts of mathematical junk.



Did it work?





Wanted the 4-spot, or 1,7,8...and ended up with #15. Was pissed for an hour, then decided to just go with it and make things happen.



Goals were: A powerful offense for a change, no bums for catcher, one top closer, and determine exactly who would we would draft in several later rounds, and then craft the team in the earlier rounds around those choices. Targets included Cuddyer in the 8th, Beltre in the 10th, Overbay or Nomar in the 12th, Maddux in the 14-15th, Lilly around 16th, and Jenkins late.



With many thanks to my outstanding nephew/partner, I believe we pulled it off...



1-15 and 2-1 - would have loved the challenge of a Santana-led team again, but was not in the stars. We took Berkman for power, and Sizemore for 5 tools.



3-15 and 4-1 - Victor Martinez and Joe Nathan were ours, according to plan. Nathan triggered a fierce closer run.



5-15 and 6-1 - Tristan and I had previously considered taking two aces here...one of them might have been Sheets (still undecided as round 5 began lol), but Sheets was gone, and a very unexpected gift was left for ours to grab...Thome. Never, ever expected Thome to last until 5-15. Took Smoltz at 6-1 over some others among his grade, as perhaps the safest choice to make, with plans to take a 2nd ace very soon.



7-15 and 8-1 - Took our 2nd ace Harang at 7-15, and our first targeted player Cuddyer at 8-1. Berkman, Sizemore, Martinez, Nathan, Thome, Smoltz, Harang, Cuddyer...we were quite pleased so far, no sign of panic, and no clowns visible in sight.



9-15 and 10-1 - snatched Chris Young, a player I was very high on, at 9-15, and our next targeted player Beltre, at 10-1.



11-15 and 12-1 - Speed was obviously are biggest concern at this point, though my statistical analysis of past NFBC standings revealed that speed is actually OVERRATED, so we grabbed Freel at 11-15, and another targeted player, Overbay, at 12-1. At this point, each of the lesser closers that we had considered for this stage were gone, so we held off.



13-15 and 14-1 - again, the closers we had considered at this stage were gone, so we took Burke at 13-15. Neither Tristan nor I can stand the Yankees, but we sucked it up for the good of the team, and grabbed Pettitte at 14-1.



At this point, we felt we had made 14 straight solid picks.



15-15 and 16-1 - Maddux was gone, all reasonable closers were gone, and I felt we had no choice, so perhaps we made our first bad pick (September is a long ways away lol) when we took Weathers at 15-15. Got back on track with our targets by taking Lilly at 16-1.



17-15 and 18-1 - time to fill in the team. Kendall isn't exactly Mauer, but he ain't a bum either, so we took Kendall at 17-15, and another targeted player at 18-1, Tim Hudson.



19-15 and 20-1 - I guess we need some infielders lol...so took Bartlett at 19-15. The Weathers pick was the one pick I was not happy with, but fortunately Scott Shields was still there, he always has decent value, so we grabbed him at 20-1.



21-15 and 22-1 - Tristan's from Greg's neck of the woods, and it was time to draft some hometown favorites, so we took the unspectacular-but-steady Suppan at 21-15, and our targeted player Geoff Jenkins at 22-1. For those who do not know, Jenkins is in the best shape of his career right now, re-dedicated, and we believe he will turn out to be our best pick.



23-1 - for those who don't know, a 23rd rounder last year was worth $0-$1 only, so we were quite content to take Betancourt at 23-1.



24-1 and beyond..."da bench" - we were very surprised that someone didn't take Mark Prior, and even though Dusty helped ruin his career, the upside was just impossible to ignore, so we took Prior at 24-1.



The rest of da bench picks were (in order) - Dellucci, McCarthy, Zobrist, Norton, Loaiza, and a very surprising Reed Johnson at 30-1.



What the heck was Reed Johnson doing there at round 30? lol





So that's our team - lots of power, slightly below average speed, strong pitching, top closer, Shields to help out Weathers, no bums for catchers...



and no doubt in my mind, the best team I've drafted so far at the NFBC...



at least until next year



John

[eddiejag]

THIS has been great stuff,the best reading on these boards in a while.CAPTAIN HOOK , THANKS for this thread and keep them coming.

[ToddZ]

With the disclaimer that this is not a formal write-up, but rather a cut and paste of what I posted to the FB.com boards, here is a taste of what was going through my mind that fateful Saturday...



Kick Ass and Pick Names



Granted I should probably try to catch some sleep before Perry and I team for the High Stakes Ultimate Auction, my body clock is not cooperating and I am wide awake and bushy tailed.



Trust me, there will be a plethora of stories surrounding our drafts so I will save that for a formal write-up, but let's just say on the plane ride from LA to Vegas, I worked on a new pitch and developed a change up. I wasn't sure if I would have the nads to throw it in the real game, but after Perry, unsolicited ran almost the exact same idea by me, I really began considering it. The draft was scheduled to begin at 10AM. At 9:57, I ran over to where Jason was facilitating and then Perry's table and said, I'm doing it and here are what my first four picks are going to be.



1.09 Jimmy Rollins

2.22 Jason Bay

3.39 Brian Roberts

4.52 Carlos Delgado



OK, that's not what really happened. I didn't run, I waddled, but that's what I had scribbled along with what I expected for HR and SB. I compared that set against what I would likely do if I went with the original plan, and that would have been something like Cabrera, DLee, Pierre and Guillen. We all liked the change up set of numbers better so neither Jason nor Perry gave me a reason to back off the idea.



What happened? In a manner that impressed the Zen-drafter himself, our buddy Lawr Michaels, the script was followed name for name and the above was exactly how I started my team.



Then came a pitching troika:



5.69 Brandon Webb

6.82 Scott Kazmir

7.99 Francisco Cordero



My man-crush for Webb and Cordero is well documented. Selecting Kazmir was a little of the risk I vowed to take this draft. Smoltz was still available and I considered him, but went with the higher upside TB ace.



Back to hitting:



8.112 Alex Gordon

9.129 Adam LaRoche

10.142 Ramon Hernandez



So it's the first break and I have 7 hitters (1-C, 1-1B, 1-2B, 1-SS, 1-3B, 1-CI) and 3 pitchers. I was Ok with the CI filled as I still had 4 OF and my UT. I was a little short on speed though. I had my eye on a speed guy but chanced the possibility he would fall one more round to take another starter for whom my man-crush is a poorly kept secret. My next 4 were



11.159 Dave Bush

12.172 Ryan Freel

13.189 Ray Durham

14.202 Marcus Giles



So I got lucky and my steals fell. I filled up my MI because I liked the OF left and was not planning on taking another pitcher until I sensed the top-level MR, would be closers began to fall. I then went OF:



15.219 Casey Blake

16.232 Moises Alou

17.249 Brad Wilkerson



Truth be told, the Blake pick was a mistake as I wanted Alou. I was deciding between Alou and Wilkerson when I thought about a conversation I had with Jason following our respective AL drafts. I took Wilkerson in mine, he said he had one OF slot left and bypassed Wilkerson to roster the more reliable but lower ceiling Blake. So when I was on the clock, I had Blake on my mind and then on my team . Fortunately, I got Alou followed by Blake, so I got the same three guys I intended, just I now have to pay Blake 15th round money.



Zumaya and Broxton both went after Wilkerson so it was time to fulfill my contractual obligation and select



18.262 Scot Shields

19.279 David Weathers



Sorry, I couldn't pass up on an opening day closer in round 19. I really wanted David Ross as I have the batting average to cover him and I needed the 20+ HR but he went earlier than expected, so I settled for



20.292 Gregg Zaun



Time to get some starters to stream so next was



21.309 Jeremy Sowers

22.322 Jake Westbrook

23.339 Mike Pelfrey



Here's where old age kicks in and I don't remember the exact order, but my 7 reserve picks were



Bill Bray, Gil Meche, Brian Wilson, Tim Wakefield, Wily Mo Pena, Geoff Jenkins, Elijah Dukes



So by position:



C Hernandez Zaun

CI: Delgado, Gordon, LaRoche

MI: Roberts, Rollins, Durham

OF: Bay, Freel, Alou, Wilkerson, Blake (Pena, Jenkins, Dukes)

UT: Giles



SP: Webb, Kazmir, Bush, Sowers, Westbrook, Pelfrey (Meche, Wakefield)

MR: Shields (Wilson, Bray)

CL: F Cordero, Weathers



All in all, I was happy, but so were 374 others so we'll see.

[Buster]

Yet another response from Las Vegas 9. I had the pleasure of sitting between Captain Hook and Team Herron, drafting in the 11 hole.



1st Round-- Pre-draft thoughts:



If I was correct in my thinking, then Pujols, Soriano, Reyes, A-Rod, Crawford, Howard, Utley and Santana would be gone in the first 8. Additionally, two of the following four guys would be gone as well: Carlos Beltran, David Ortiz, Vladimir Guerrero and David Wright. I had hoped to get Beltran, but would settle for Wright.



WHAT REALLY HAPPENED



The top eight picks were gone as expected. Carlos Beltran also went before us, as did Miguel Cabrera, leaving us with the anticipated choice between David Ortiz and David Wright. In retrospect, I should have taken Ortiz, but not knowing what the next few rounds would offer, I went with David Wright.



2nd Round-- Pre-Draft thoughts:



We picked 20th. In addition to the guys listed above, I expected that Guerrero, Berkman, and Carlos Lee would be long gone before the 20th pick. The next five guys to go, I figured, included Grady Sizemore, Mark Teixeira, Jimmy Rollins, Derek Jeter, and Travis Hafner I really wanted Sizemore or Rollins.



WHAT REALLY HAPPENED



Apparently, I was crazy to think that Jimmy Rollins would drop to us at pick number twenty. Rollins went as high as sixth overall in one of the Vegas leagues, and was regularly taken in the top seventeen in many leagues I saw. He went 16th in Vegas 9. Sizemore and Teixeira were also long gone before my 2nd pick. However, Carlos Lee was still around. I know that his body is shaped more like a whale than a baseball player, but you cannot argue with his numbers. Getting into the field formally known as Enron won’t hurt significantly, so Lee is going to be the same old Carlos Lee. While I was disappointed in missing on Sizemore and Rollins, I was pleased to find Carlos around in the second.



3rd Round-- Pre-Draft thoughts:



Here is where I feared not only picking 11th, but sitting next to Captain Hook (who had #10). Ideally, I wanted either Furcal (1st choice after the top 37), or Figgins (2nd choice), but both knew that both could be gone before my pick. Captain Hook had taken Figgins in the AL auction the day earlier, having come to that auction in an Angels' jersey. I pretty much knew that Furcal wouldn't make it to me, and I doubted that Van Hook would pass on Figgins. So, rather than take Ortiz in the 1st, I went with Wright for his speed, as I was resigned to not get Figgins or Furcal.



WHAT REALLY HAPPENED



By my pick (#41) Furcal was indeed long gone, but Captain Hook passed on Figgins, allowing me to take him and his soon to be broken two fingers.



4th Round-- Pre-Draft Thoughts



Brian Roberts was the 50th player in the mockdraftcentral.com ADP. I had the 50th pick. Would he still be there for me? I had hoped so, but knew that ADPs are inherently flawed. I feared that with Roberts gone, I would be left with a choice of a starting pitcher (no thanks), a closer (no thanks), or some hitter who didn't fit my draft strategy. I resigned myself to drafting Bill Hall, a bit early, but still not a bad pick.



WHAT REALLY HAPPENED



Again, while Roberts had an ADP of 50, I figured with the caliber of players in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, there was no way he would be available for us at #50. Unfortunately, I was correct. Hall was gone, as well. However, I did not expect Victor Martinez to fall this far. While I had no intention of drafting a catcher in the fourth round, I had to take what the draft gave me, and this particular draft gave me a top two catcher in the fourth.



5th Round



I am expecting a huge year out of Ben Sheets. If he was available with our fifth round pick (#51), I was going to jump on him. Sheets’ ADP was 60, and recent mocks show him at around 55, so he might possibly be available at 51 for me. If not, I thought that I might have an outside shot at Hall (wrong!), or potentially Adam Dunn, Prince Fielder and others. Depending upon how closers were going, I might have considered a closer, but with my 6th round pick just nine picks away (#60), I didn't expect to draft a closer here.



WHAT REALLY HAPPENED



Apparently, I was not the only one high on Ben Sheets, as he was taken a round earlier. Considering his health, the Brewers, and Miller Park, Sheets is a good risk in the fifth round. Sheets in the fourth round, given those factors, isn’t as good a risk. Yet, he could be this year's Cy Young Award winner, so I can't fault that pick.



Having lost Ben Sheets, I was looking at what had been left to me. B.J. Ryan, who I had expected to go in the middle of the fourth, was now still available near the end of the fifth round. Taking what the draft gave me, I opted for Ryan at this juncture in the draft.



Here is how the team shakes out:



C Victor Martinez (4th)



C Josh Bard (20th) (Lost out on all three Molinas)



1b Adam LaRoche (8th round). One round too early in retrospect.



2b Jeff Kent (9th round). Again, one round too early, but he is healthier than all of last season, and could actually put up 25 HR this year.



3b David Wright (1st round).



SS Yunietsky Betancourt (22nd round). There is nothing like the feeling of watching every short stop you have ever wanted being picked before it is your turn. Every time we targeted a shortstop, he was taken before we had a chance to get him. Obviously, it was our poor planning, and we now have my new favorite player, Yunietsky Betancourt, starting. Things could be worse, we almost got stuck with Juan Uribe.



MI Tad Iguchi (10th round). Second base is a pretty weak position this year. While Iguchi isn't a value pick at 10, he is certainly better than having a middle infield that includes Yunietsky Betancourt and a Yunietsky Betancourt clone.



CI Eric Chavez (13th round). I keep repeating, "He is healthy, he is healthy, he really is healthy."



OF Carlos Lee (2nd round)



OF Chone Figgins (3rd round)



OF Scott Podsednik (11th round). Yes, I almost vomitted when I said his name, but its hard to argue with a guy who runs batting atop that stellar lineup.



OF Chris Duncan (17th round). Decent value this late in the draft.



OF Gary Matthews, Jr. aka HGH (18th round). Ditto.



DH Johnny Gomes (16th round). Could put up 30 HR. Could watch Greg Norton put up 20 HR. I'm betting on the former.



SP John Smoltz (6th round)

SP CC Sabathia (7th round)

SP Dontrelle Willis (12th round)

SP Jose Contreras (15th round)

SP Tim Hudson (19th round)

SP Kei Igawa (21st round)

SP Kenny Rogers (23rd round)

SP Jeff Suppan (28th round)



CL BJ Ryan (5th round)

CL Todd Jones (14th round)



Reserves waiting for health:

1b Nick Johnson (25th round)

OF Juan Rivera (27th round)





Post draft, Nick Johnson still can't do much, Chone Figgins is out the first month, BJ Ryan has a sore back, and CC Sabathia was hit on the wrist with a line drive. Makes me not want to read the paper in the morning.

[SluggoJD]

More great write-ups...keep it up guys, this is awesome!



John

[Terp]

God Bless the USA LV 6-The Other Side (Carl Greer/John Sniezek). Drafting with the first pick. Pre-draft strategy was to focus on hitting early and build a pitching staff in the later rounds. We wanted two solid catchers. Closers would be nice, but if they went too early then we would punt (picked Benitez, Lidge, and Valverde last year and hitting suffered) Liked being able to pick back to back, but waiting 28 players between picks is a long time.



The first pick was Pujols at 1-1. Reyes was the only other player considered. BA was tie-breaker in favor of Pujols.



2-15 and 3-1 - Run on middles in this league. Pleasantly surprised with D. Lee and Suzuki here. Other than Santana, we were not going to take a pitcher here.



4-15 and 5-1 - Added McCann and F. Lopez here. Position scarcity played a role in these picks.



6-15 and 7-1 - A lot of pitching was going early in this league. So we decided to continue to pile on the hitting. Added C. Patterson (hoping pre-draft that he would slip here) and Uggla (last 2B with HR potential).



8-15 and 9-1 - Took our first pitcher with Bedard. C. Jones was the other pick. Jones might have been a bit of reach, but we felt a fair amount of upside here if he somehow stays healthy.



10-15 and 11-1 - Added Capuano and Olsen. Needed to get a few solid pitches before they were all gone.



12-15 and 13-1 - Added R. Hernandez. We would have preferred to add more pitching (all closers were gone), but a large catcher run was taking place and we wanted a second solid catcher. Giambi at this point was too hard to pass up.



14-15 and 15-1 - Didn’t really need the speed, but Podsednik looked like good value here and offered speed insurance. Added C. James with the other pick. Pitching was pretty thin at this point.



16-15 and 17-1 - Made a mistake and took J. Johnson. Missed the injury. Added last MI with J. Peralta.



18-15 and 19-1- Added D. Davis for K potential and J. Guillen to hopefully come back from injury.



20-15 and 21-1. Added R. Church (believe he is going to have a solid year and we will be watching him on local TV). Colon was a pure speculation play.



The rest were fill-ins (E. Brown, N Logan, Timlin, Pineiro, Donnelly, Farnsworth, Saunders, Wakefield, and Baker) including several of the Boston closing crew (obviously didn’t work out with Pap. returning to closer duty).



Draft pretty much went to plan. Hitting is solid across the board. Pitching? Who knows, but our team should be competitive in our league. Good luck everyone and have fun.

[KJ Duke]

Enjoying everyone's commentary ... also good to see all the clandestine Rollins fans coming out in the open.



[ March 29, 2007, 01:40 AM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

[Greg Ambrosius]

Good stuff everyone. It's good to see Draft Day plans come together. Now let's start the games and see if these plans work out. Keep the analysis coming from more owners.

[The Mighty Men]

I'll take a crack at it. I've only been doing fantasy baseball for 3-4 years, but have done football for 18. This was my first NFBC main event league. I won a free entry last year by winning a Satellite. I had a partner for the main event, John Pausma. We made a deal last year that if one of us won a free entry Satellite league, that we'd partner with the other and join together. I won, so we partnered.

Chicago #2, 7th pick. The plan was pretty much to take the best value.



1.7 - Wanted Crawford or Utley. They both were taken in the two picks before us. So, we pulled the trigger on Santana. I was not enthused.

2.9 - I liked 6 guys at this spot, and all six went right before our pick. Ugh. Manny Ramirez offered the best power numbers, IMO, so Manny it was.

3.7 - Abreu. A no-brainer. This was the lowest he was drafted in any league, I believe.

4.9 - Brian Roberts. Needed the SB's. Position scarcity. He was falling.

5.7 - C. Guillen - Another guy falling in the draft, IMO. Fills the SS spot. 5 category player in the 5th round, sounds good to me.

6.9/7.7 - Sexson & Giambi - Needed more power, and our ave. could take the hit from these two guys.

8.9 - Sabathia. Love the potential. He's ready to bloom. Dumb forearm.

9.7/10.9 - Bob Wickman/Todd Jones. Here is our biggest mistake of the draft. We needed closer(s), so I took two guys who to me represent a ton of saves on good teams. I never considered their crappy K rates, especially together. BUT WORSE YET, A. Harang had fallen in the draft and I could have taken him in the 9th round. I was too focused on closers and not thinking value pick.

11.7 - D. Bush. A solid pitcher. He is only getting better.

12.9 - Ensberg - This guy is going to rebound huge. I constantly see in fantasy drafts how many people shy away from players that were injured in the previous year. That's a big mistake. If its Culpepper's ACL, that's understandable. If its a fixable problem - like Ensberg's was - then it is pure value. He couldn't swing last year.

13 - 15 - Lofton, Victorino & C. Hart. This area may be mistake #2. We may have focused a bit too much on speed here. We need Shane and Corey to outperform their projections.

16 and on - Maddux, Varitek, Aurilia, Kendall, Mora (in the 20th?!), Padilla, B. Wilson, Hughes, Kennedy, Loaiza, Encarnacion, J. Johnson, Neshek, Eaton, Gallardo.



= a team full of old guys. If my two old closers keep their roles and save 70+ games, then maybe we overcome that mistake.

[Vander]

sabathia at 8-9 is a steal if he's ok. I'll have to talk to Dave G. about letting him drop that far. Nice going. P.S. I hope he's ok I got him in the main also.

[ALL-IN JD]

Draft day was a blast and I was fairly with the results. I got my first KDS selection which was the sixth pick in the draft, hoping that either ARod or Crawford fall to me at six. Of course, they didnt so right away I wasnt happy:



1-6 Drafted Chase Utley. Its been debated alot but I am one that believes in position scarcity, not to mention that I think he is going to have a huge year



2-10 Pick that made my draft. Drafted Jimmy Rollins (this was the lowest spot that he went. I had him ranked as the number two SS so I was pretty shocked to get him.



3-6 Wanted a power corner and took the consistent Paul Konerko to fill that spot



4-10 Ecstatic to get Bill Hall here and complete what could be the best MI in all of the drafts.



5-6 My next six picks were going to be three SP and 3 power/speed combo guys, if possible. Took Tori Hunter here, hoping he stays healthy.



6-10 "Reached" here for Alex. Think he is absolutely the real deal and didt think he'd make it back to me as he was climbing the draft boards.



7-6 Took my first pitcher and potential ace, Cole Hamels.



8-10 Wanted to take Bedard but stuck with offense and grabbed another power/speed OF in Mike Cameron.



9-6 Low and behold, Bedard was still there and was ecstatic to grab him.



10-10 Once again, reached a bit and took Ian Snell, who has a pretty high ceiniling for this year but could dissapoint.



Plan for the next 10 was to continue loading up on offense (grab to solid catchers if possible), another solid starter, a second tier closer and a couple of solid MR.



11-6 Carlos Quentin was the choice here. Should put up solid power numbers.



12-10 Took my second tier closer, Bob Wickman. Not very good ratios but should get 30-35 saves if healthy.



13-6 Was happy to grab Kelvim Escobar as my 4th starter. Of course need him to stay healthy.



14-10 Took another solid combo OF in Milton Bradley. Hitting third in a very good lineup and expect a very solid season.



15-6 Gerald Laird was the pick here. Should put up solid numbers in a very good hitters park and could even add in 5-10 steals



16-10 Took Dan Wheeler. Lidge is on an incredibly short leash and has followed up a terrible year with a lousy spring. I can see Wheeler getting more saves this year.



17-6 The ever popular Wes Helms was the choice to fill my CI. Should hit close to .300 with some decent pop (in a perfect world). Could be wishful thinking.



18-6 Another solid MR, took Scot Shields. Should be solid across the board and KRod has been known to get nicked up.



19-6 Filled my second catcher spot with Chris Ianetta. Playing in Colorado surely wont hurt.



20-10 Took my fifth starter Adam Loewen. Has really nice upside and should be a good source for k's



Rest of the draft provided what I hope to be some very solid if not useful players. Final roster was:



C Ianetta, Laird

1B Konerko, Kotchman

2B Utley, Matsui

SS Rollins, Hall

3B Gordon, Helms

OF Hunter, Cameron, Quentin, Bradley, Gibbons, Sledge, Milledge

SP Hamels, Bedard, Snell, Escobar, Loewen, J. Shields, Lester

RP Wickman, Wheeler, S. Sheilds, Al Reyes, Coffey, Neshek

[Quahogs]

Originally posted by fireballs:





C Ianetta, Laird

1B Konerko, Kotchman

2B Utley, Matsui

SS Rollins, Hall

3B Gordon, Helms

OF Hunter, Cameron, Quentin, Bradley, Gibbons, Sledge, Milledge

SP Hamels, Bedard, Snell, Escobar, Loewen, J. Shields, Lester

RP Wickman, Wheeler, S. Sheilds, Al Reyes, Coffey, Neshek you are going to have a LOT of fun with this team this season. I think this one just moved to the top of the 30 or so teams you'll follow this year !



Q

[ToyCannon]

Las Vegas 10, 1st year player, been playing for 20 years in numerous formats. Was worried about

keeping up with the draft since I was on my own and had never worked on a 1 minute time clock. It was an amazing time, had great fun, my brain was in overdrive and I'm just glad I had prepared myself. The 3 facilitators were all fantastic and even with our league doing a phone draft it went great. The owners were friendly and I'm looking forward to the competition.

1 - Pujols - no brainer for me. I know some talked of going for Reyes but since his game revolves around healthy legs and he isn't that far removed from having serious hamstring problems I wasn't going to risk a number one on him.

30 - Bay - I didn't expect Bay to drop to me so I grabbed him. Holliday almost fell to me but was snagged at 28.

31 - A Jones - I had expected to take Abreu and Jones with the turn picks but once I had Bay it was between Jones and Abreu and I took Jones. The way speed ran away so quickly I think I would

have been better off with Abreu but the power from Jones should be nice.

60 - B Hall - Now I'm sweating because B Hall is the player I want on my team. I think all the projections are understating what he can do in 2007. With each pick he comes closer to me. When he falls to me I'm estatic. At this point I'm loaded with power but Jones and Hall could hurt the average and very little speed unless Bay and Hall run again like they have in the past.

After the draft I checked out the other boards and it turns it out that if I wanted Hall I was

very lucky as it looks like the 60th pick was the latest he went on Saturday in Vegas. So everyone

else must also feel the sameway about Hall.

61 - Ben Sheets - When healthy I think he's the 2nd best pitcher in baseball. The top starters are all gone so I gamble on him. It is possible that my whole season will depend on the difference between 120 innings and 220 innings from him.

90 - Crips - Big reach, counting on a comeback, needed steals. Probably could have waited but with steals going fast and furious I don't think he makes it back to me.

91 - Kendrick - some would call this a reach but I think he's a lock. Already love to watch him hit.

120 - Haren - Glad to snag him with this pick.

121 - Valverde - All top tier closers are gone but I consider him top tier, pitching on a up and coming team.

150 - Escobar - Someday he's going to put it together and win 18, in the meantime he still gives a great WHIP and K's.

151 - Bush - was surprised he was still available. I've liked him but he got a lot of late hype and I thought he'd go earlier. I'm probably to enamored with this Brewer team. I also target Cory Hart but he goes much earlier then I expected.

180 - Snell - I have to admit I've never seen Snell pitch and was surprised when I was crunching numbers how nice he looked. Glad to have him with this pick.

181 - Torres - Great Sept, probably a fluke but with closers it is a crapshoot. My biggest achilles heal in this sport is closers and normally I punt the category but I can't do that in this competition.

210 - BJ Upton - Need the speed and I just hope the skills he showed at 19 can come to life with playing time. I know he'll give me SB and positional flexibility but I'm hoping for more then the 265-270 average with more more power then he's shown recently. He is a bit perplexing to me and probably everyone in baseball. If he ends up being a punch & judy hitter with little plate discipline in his career I'll be disapointed.

211 - Quentin - had him projected as a 8-12 rounder so I take him even though there are still lots of mid level outfielders available.

240- Giles - at this point all top catchers are gone and I'm bumming I didn't take one earlier. Giles is still on the board and a little bounceback in his average and power would be nice but it is possible he is done and that this was a wasted pick.

241- Dejesus - I've now picked to many outfielders and not even a fan but now he's on my team. Deep regret. Time clock pick. 1st time I felt rushed.

270 - Barlett - Need a middle infielder and he's the best still available. Expect the average to regress but still okay at this pick.

271 - Kouzmanoff - Held off on a 3b since so many are available. Glad to get him even if he is only eligible for UT for the 1st few weeks. Think he'll outhit many 3b who went before him. Not so bummed about Dejesus anymore.

300 - Colon - Starting to take risks but I like Colon here.

301 - Punto - cheap source of stolen bases and he seems to qualify everywhere.

330 - Jamie Shields - Now I'm drinking the HQ koolaid. Was a fan of his ever since I saw him in the 2005 AFL. Great control and misses bats. Only downside is the team and the Eastern Division competition which could crimp his numbers. Would not shock me to see Shields post more wins and a better WHIP then Kazmir.

331- Barajas - I gave up the catcher spot when I didnt' get anybody I wanted in the middle rounds.

360- Iwamura - Another quality 3b still available. Since 6 of our drafters were from Tampa I was surprised he was still around. I guess the slow spring kept them wary. Not a fan of spring stats only job position changes based

on spring decisions. He'll get 500 at bats and produce. Or maybe not which is why we play this game.

361-Montero - 2nd catcher, keeper league I'd be estatic, for this league I hope my catchers don't kill me.

390- Kuo - at this point I thought he'd be the Dodgers 5th starter. Being a Dodger fan and watching him last Sept I was sure I was getting a great end game pick. Now he's on the shelf and probably won't resurface for a while.

391-Kotchman - Very happy to get him this late. Worth the gamble here.

420 -German - probably a wasted pick. I already have plenty of positional flexibility with Upton and Punto.

421- Orvella - end game, chasing saves

450- Hermanson - between him and Timlin. Roll the dice. He might get me some early saves but hard to believe he'll have the job by the middle of summer.

[ALL-IN JD]

Thanks Q, appreciate it. I think the offense is very, very strong. After the first couple of weeks I can even slide Matsui in to MI and move Hall to the OF, if need be. I still need to troll around for saves possibly and could use another starter possibly.