ADP and Value Picking?

Nutty Scrats · Post by **Nutty Scrats** » Wed Mar 28, 2007 12:48 pm

With the talk of average draft pick and vlaue picking. Obviously your looking for value at every round but is there really a point in the draft where you say. OK! I got my core players now let's see what's out there? Would it be the 4th round, 5th round or maybe sooner or later. Just curious what people have to say.

Also, does value picking necessarily equate to having a winning team or do you think it just give you a better chance? Thanks in advance.

[ March 28, 2007, 06:53 PM: Message edited by: Nutty Scrat ]

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Wed Mar 28, 2007 1:16 pm

Originally posted by Nutty Scrat:

Also, does value picking necessarily equate to having a winning team or do you think it just give you a better chance? Hopefully both!

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Wed Mar 28, 2007 2:35 pm

i THINK IT HELPS.Getting value as much as you can is a big part of my drafting, but sometimes you need to draft for need , so its a little of both.Abreu in the 3rd round is value, BJ RYAN in the 4th round is a need , if you want a top closer.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Wed Mar 28, 2007 2:35 pm

i THINK IT HELPS.Getting value as much as you can is a big part of my drafting, but sometimes you need to draft for need , so its a little of both.Abreu in the 3rd round is value, BJ RYAN in the 4th round is a need , if you want a top closer.

cugjp1 · Post by **cugjp1** » Thu Mar 29, 2007 2:37 am

It takes very little to draft the highest valued player. Knowing when to reach, and scouting hidden talent wins...Auction anyalisis has shown that players have a large variation in price and performance(much like the dif in Price and Value). What you pay for an individual player and what you get is seldom the same thing no matter how much analyis is done. If I were to read the papers and see that Jorge Julio was being sought by several teams to close and then I drafter him for $1, others might laugh. But if the trade goes through and he saves 30 I have received much more value for my money than Pujols could ever bring becuase I have basically saved $10-$15 dollars that would have been spent on another reliever and I then get even larger talent in other places with the money saved. This means that Pujols would have to bring in a huge value to keep pace. Don't get me wrong, if you gamble on your whole team the risk will invariably overcome your strategy. But I do believe that a simple buy, hold, sell mentality can help you see who you believe is on the upside and who to stay away from. A great ADP value basically means that I have the greatest hold team according to the masses, but it is very likely that I will be beat by those that took more risk. I purposely stayed away from Howard. Why? He has had 2 great seasons and has never had any real adversity. Even in spring training he began to unravel during a small slump, I believe these intangibles are the key. Disclaimor: Of course we now have to play the games and all my theories may be wrong.. LOL Ain't it fun...