NOT a Big Believer in ADP

GoBabyGo · Post by **GoBabyGo** » Wed Mar 28, 2007 2:37 pm

I have never drafted on how so called pundits ranked players based on whatever formula they use.

Its best to use instincts, guys you have a gut feeling that will improve instead of WHO people believe are going to be good. Don't get me wrong its good to listen but always follow your belief and whom you trust and yes even that guy that you root for.

Me I never draft guys I do not like for one reason or another. I.E. Bonds

I draft guys I like and have helped me in the past, i.e Smoltz (a true competitor), Francouer, (A guy with aton of upside), Inge (a fiesty get dirty player) As to upside (Howiewood) this guy is special it was between him and Kinsler but I felt Howie's minor average was the kicker.

There is no right way to draft and no wrong way, I have used this method and it has brought success each year, and hopefully this year will be better.

Good Luck

billywaz · Post by **billywaz** » Wed Mar 28, 2007 2:44 pm

I'm totally a novice to the baseball game (I did m first satellite in 13 years), but I think ADP IS a valuable tool.

Now before I begin, I WILL admit that it is MUCH less valuable in baseball than in football (IMO), but if you have a hunch that Orlando Hudson will be a GREAT 2B, you don't take him in round 8, when you can get him in round 13.

I can understand reaching a round (maybe even a few more as the draft progresses into the later rounds) for a player that you really think will bust out, but having a rough idea of where someone will be taken is VERY valuable IMO.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Mar 28, 2007 3:07 pm

ADP is a good tool IMO if you keep it in context. First risk is everyone was wrong on the guy you got "value" from. Next and equally important is you may have gotten value but have terrible balance on your team. Also if all of your value was rounds 25-30 how well did you really do?

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Mar 28, 2007 3:17 pm

I agree it's a nice tool...

I just hate it when the ADP says round 12...you value the guy round 8...you target round 10...and he's gobbled up 3 picks before you.

Had you trusted your gut and selected him round 8 or 9...you'd have kicked a few more butts.

~Lance

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Mar 28, 2007 3:19 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

I agree it's a nice tool...

I just hate it when the ADP says round 12...you value the guy round 8...you target round 10...and he's gobbled up 3 picks before you.

Had you trusted your gut and selected him round 8 or 9...you'd have kicked a few more butts.

~Lance Lance very glad you are in the league on Sunday looking forward to it-

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Mar 28, 2007 3:35 pm

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

I agree it's a nice tool...

I just hate it when the ADP says round 12...you value the guy round 8...you target round 10...and he's gobbled up 3 picks before you.

Had you trusted your gut and selected him round 8 or 9...you'd have kicked a few more butts.

~Lance Lance very glad you are in the league on Sunday looking forward to it- [/QUOTE]Me too, Chest...but the hair raising on the back of my neck makes me think (like those old cartoons) you have a sweet smile and dollar signs in your eyes as you typed that!!!

Either way...I sure hope Greg plays!

~Lance

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Wed Mar 28, 2007 3:56 pm

ADP is not a bad tool to use prior to a draft. But it is only one tool. At best it gives you a very rough idea where players will be for the first three rounds. Sorry Capt. Hook I stole that from you.

As far as trying to figure out who had the best draft by ADP its worthless. Fun for posting maybe but it means nothing 6 months from now.

[ March 28, 2007, 09:58 PM: Message edited by: Walla Walla ]

GoBabyGo · Post by **GoBabyGo** » Wed Mar 28, 2007 4:44 pm

ADP is a tool but, to say hey this guy had the best adp he will win it all is a bunch of BS.

I drafted from the 12th hole. As such I received a few OH's and Uh's for some of my picks. I picked these guys when I did because I believe they will have BIG YEARS, so why not draft them there at that spot then wait and lose them?

I drafted SIZEMORE with my first pick, was it early? Maybe but to me he still has plenty of upside and I consider him a 30/30 guy regardless of the lousy spring he is having.

Then I picked Hanely Ramirez with my 2nd pick, he was my 2nd best listed SS on MY Board, (Reyes was #1) Yes I felt Jeter (I am a Yankee fan and think he is one of the best players in the game) has topped and Rollins already had his best year last year.

NOw this next pick really shocked them all especially with Bill Hall (Good player with upside) and Damon (Constant player which should hit a few less hrs than last yr) on the board still, I picked Alex Rois in the 4th round, was this a strecth? Maybe But I really believe this guy will have a Huge year and was afraid by the 5th round he would never make it back to me. He was on pace last year to having a monster year before having that injury. Plus I love the Jays line up this year.

Some people will say yeah you picked them to early, but hey if I do not pick them they will not be there when it becomes my turn. I targeted these 3 guys going in and I got all 3 so I was happy with my overall draft, especially my 11-30 rds, that is where this thing is won. You need that well rounded overall team without trying to PUNT catergories as I saw with a few people in my draft who either punted SB's or Saves, I do not believe in PUNTING. Punting means you need to make up a ton of points in other catergories which does not usually pan out.

GoBabyGo

[ March 28, 2007, 10:50 PM: Message edited by: GoBabyGo ]

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Mar 28, 2007 4:57 pm

I agree, GoBabyGo...

I'd bet that every NFBC winners has marched to it's own drummer and not followed the ADP heard.

~Lance

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Mar 28, 2007 5:07 pm

Side note to GoBabyBo...

(Being a horse racing slogan)

I'm sad to report that Bay Meadows in San Mateo, CA has finally lost it's war to stay in business.

Horrible in my opinion.

It's like having a sister that lives close by...you may only visit her 3 times a year...but it's comforting knowing her family is always open to visit and having a great time.

The choke hold is slowly being applied to Americas youth...I've witnessed the loss of cruising, drive-in theatres youth sports decline, etc.

They are planning to put up more housing in it's place...great!

~Lance

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Mar 28, 2007 5:07 pm

Originally posted by GoBabyGo:

ADP is a tool but, to say hey this guy had the best adp he will win it all is a bunch of BS.

I drafted from the 12th hole. As such I received a few OH's and Uh's for some of my picks. I picked these guys when I did because I believe they will have BIG YEARS, so why not draft them there at that spot then wait and lose them?

I drafted SIZEMORE with my first pick, was it early? Maybe but to me he still has plenty of upside and I consider him a 30/30 guy regardless of the lousy spring he is having.

Then I picked Hanely Ramirez with my 2nd pick, he was my 2nd best listed SS on MY Board, (Reyes was #1) Yes I felt Jeter (I am a Yankee fan and think he is one of the best players in the game) has topped and Rollins already had his best year last year.

NOw this next pick really shocked them all especially with Bill Hall (Good player with upside) and Damon (Constant player which should hit a few less hrs than last yr) on the board still, I picked Alex Rois in the 4th round, was this a strecth? Maybe But I really believe this guy will have a Huge year and was afraid by the 5th round he would never make it back to me. He was on pace last year to having a monster year before having that injury. Plus I love the Jays line up this year.

Some people will say yeah you picked them to early, but hey if I do not pick them they will not be there when it becomes my turn. I targeted these 3 guys going in and I got all 3 so I was happy with my overall draft, especially my 11-30 rds, that is where this thing is won. You need that well rounded overall team without trying to PUNT catergories as I saw with a few people in my draft who either punted SB's or Saves, I do not believe in PUNTING. Punting means you need to make up a ton of points in other catergories which does not usually pan out.

GoBabyGo No issue with your strategy and you have guys I like a lot including Rios.

I think when you look back you may wish you mixed a more conservative pick (relative to draft spot) in or 2. Thing is most guys who draft like you did flame out, or on occasion due very well. My gut tells me though that even if you missed a bit on a few of those that you still have a nucleus to build on and keep it in contention. Where is your power ? Hall if he hits 30 makes up a lot, Hanley allows you to field 5 outfielders and a utility who have pop but that still may be your biggest hurdle.

Good luck to you in 2007!

GoBabyGo · Post by **GoBabyGo** » Wed Mar 28, 2007 5:26 pm

Chestrockwell;

I believe I have a balanced team that is all I ask of myself in this type of draft, not looking to score 15 pts in HR's but 10-11 is what I aim for here are the picks you decide: ADP standards not good but hey last they said the samething and finished pretty good overall.

1- Sizemore

2- Hanely Rameriz

3- BJ Ryan

4- Alex Rois

5- Smoltz

6- Kendrick

7- Francouer

8- Papelbon

9- Overbay

10- Borowski

11- Verlander

12- Byrnes

13- Nomar Garciaparra (Proud new daddy will get him pumped)

14- Inge

15 - Chuck James

16 - Jacque Jones

17 - Tommy G. (Glavine)

18- Bard

19 - Linebrink (Needed a potential closer since than Papelbon is a closer again)

20 J. Gullien

21 - Kenny Rogers

22 - Polanco

23 - El Duque

24 - Grienke

25 - Montero

26 - Feliz

27 - Luis Gonzalez

28 - Domniut

29 - C. Vargas

30 - Theriot (Could be Super Sleeper)

I feel its well rounded but hey I am bias. Many 20/20 guys and love my Outfield and pitching, I believe Grienke will be back to what he was 2 years ago when he was drafted as a top MLB pitcher. Just some thoughts.

[ March 28, 2007, 11:27 PM: Message edited by: GoBabyGo ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Mar 28, 2007 6:38 pm

Originally posted by Walla Walla:

ADP is not a bad tool to use prior to a draft. But it is only one tool. At best it gives you a very rough idea where players will be for the first three rounds. Sorry Capt. Hook I stole that from you.

As far as trying to figure out who had the best draft by ADP its worthless. Fun for posting maybe but it means nothing 6 months from now. Walla, that is well-stated, lucid and most-of-all true argument. Has someone hijacked your handle??!

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Mar 28, 2007 6:45 pm

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

I agree it's a nice tool...

I just hate it when the ADP says round 12...you value the guy round 8...you target round 10...and he's gobbled up 3 picks before you.

Had you trusted your gut and selected him round 8 or 9...you'd have kicked a few more butts.

~Lance Lance very glad you are in the league on Sunday looking forward to it- [/QUOTE]I agree with Lance here...to an extent. If you're projections tend to work out better on seasons than adp's do (btw, not a stretch; by definition a perfect adp team should be average), you should take them a bit early. Often yes, it is a 4 round difference, but you aim for two and figure your value lost will be regained by taking guys who fell farther than their adp and the fact that you end up with the best available guy later rather than dead weight. It is a mix and adp is a tool. But nobody said this was one way or the other--or easy.

Man, if I keep it up I can pass Chest on posts tonight.

[ March 29, 2007, 12:48 AM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Wed Mar 28, 2007 11:57 pm

I'm not concerned with slight differences in ADP -- these in no way impact my draft selections. However, it's absolutely crazy not to jump on values like these:

Raul Ibanez 13.05

Dan Uggla 13.14

Frank Thomas 14.02

Boof Bonser 21.05

Kei Igawa 22.11

Jeremy Sowers 23.05

Cliff Lee 27.05

To name a few. These players were all taken several rounds after their ADPs.

When you see a great ADP score, it likely means that an owner was able to secure several players far later than the ADP would indicate. Taking Alex Rios in the 4th instead of the 5th -- so what? Taking Corey Patterson in the 3rd, Coco Crisp in the 4th or Scott Linebrink in the 9th? Likely a team-killing move.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Mar 29, 2007 1:02 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

The choke hold is slowly being applied to Americas youth...I've witnessed the loss of cruising, drive-in theatres youth sports decline, etc.

~Lance All right, Grampa! Pull your pants up under your chest, let your ankles shine, and tell me how you used to do it in your day!

Drive-in movies...bad popcorn, bad picture, bad movie, bad sound! Couldn't see much as the windows were often fogged anyway.

Youth sports are alive and well, at least in Georgia. My kids between them have soccer, football, swimming...hell, even fencing. Our problem is not decline in youth sports, but we are so busy, we sit down for dinner only once or twice a week.

Just remember....

"And they'll walk out to the bleachers; sit in shirtsleeves on a perfect afternoon. They'll find they have reserved seats somewhere along one of the baselines, where they sat when they were children and cheered their heroes. And they'll watch the game and it'll be as if they dipped themselves in magic waters. The memories will be so thick they'll have to brush them away from their faces. People will come Ray. The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. This field, this game: it's a part of our past, Ray. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again. Oh... people will come Ray. People will most definitely come."

Terence Mann (James Earl Jones) - Field of Dreams (1989)

Nutty Scrats · Post by **Nutty Scrats** » Thu Mar 29, 2007 2:07 am

I think this is a good topic. I personally belive ADP is a good tool but by far the bible of drafting. Value can be always good but alot of draftin is personal preference. Who cares what the guy or gal down the line thinks? I may have got caught up in saying, well this guy is not suppose to go now, and skipped on a player only to find myself screwed down the line.

That being said maybe the people that are snickering or groaning have their own interset in mind figuring the player taken, supposingly early, would be there later on for them to take. Just because a player is taken does not necessarily mean it's right or wrong. Just as people who play position scarcity is there own personal preference. Just my humble opinion. After all, at least for me, I want to win but it is my own dime I play with and if I screw up that's the way it goes. I can live with it.

Now back to finding that 30 hrs and 30 steals guy in the FAAB. As the Moody Blues say , I know he's out there somewhere! LOL

joey m · Post by **joey m** » Thu Mar 29, 2007 2:10 am

Two years ago someone posted rankings of ADP for the entire Main Event. The list showed my team as having the 5th WORST draft in ALL of the main event. I remember I started to doubt everything I had done during the draft but I still felt somewhat positive as to what my team looked like on paper. That year I finished 1st in my league and 13TH OVERALL in the Main Event.

Needless to say, ever since that result I could care less about ADP. Contrary to what most players do, I don't even do or look at mock drafts, because I don't want to be influenced by the herd. I'm investing my $1,300.00 and I want to draft on my own instincts and opinions. For me it just makes it tmuch more fun that way.I do think its especially tough for guys drafting at the ends of rounds not to reach because if your targeting a guy and you don't take him now, he probably wont be there in 29 picks when its your turn again.

Anyway, for the record, last year I finished 6th in my league and I believe 195th overall. And as for this year, someone in my league did an ADP for my 15 team league and rated my draft as 14th out of 15. I'm feeling more confident already.

Good Luck To All

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Thu Mar 29, 2007 2:40 pm

Great topic...Every year I look at a couple of mock drafts to get an idea of a player's ADP. I make my own player rankings using a couple of magazines for guidance, gut feeling, and players who I felt have helped me in the past. I only use ADP to give me guidance as to what others in the draft will do.

I like GoBabyGo's team a lot. IMO starting pitching is a little weak (Papelbon to the bullpen didnt help) but you never know. Greinke could be a huge boost.

freddiezee · Post by **freddiezee** » Fri Mar 30, 2007 12:35 am

I think you have to draft according to your rankings and ranking system, but ADP definitely has value. I'll give a couple examples:

1. Closers - I did two staellites this week, pick 6 and 7. I decided that I wanted one elite closer, and for me that list was Nathan, K-Rod, Ryan, Rivera and Wagner. I did some mocks and was usually able to get one guy from that list in round 5. What did the main event ADP's show me? That when people are playing for keeps the closers go early. The main event ADP's showed me that all but one of my guys should be gone before I pick in round 4, so planing on getting one in round 5 won't work. So, I changed my plans a bit and took Wagner in round 4 both nights. Sure enough, none of my guys were there by even the first pick in round 5. I got my closer, I was happy and I went back to value-based drafting of hitters.

2. I think you have to follow your rankings, but by the middle-round it's normal to have many players closely bunched. ADP's can break some ties. For example, in round 12, the two highest ranked guys left on my list were Huff and Escobar. I have them ranked dead even. And, based on my picks so far, I could use either a pitcher or hitter equally. Who do I take? I'd really like to have both. Main event ADP's show me that Huff is usually long gone by 12.10, but Escobar is usually still around at that time. If I leave Huff he will almost certainly go in the next 10 picks, but Escobar might last. Since I have them ranked the same, I take Huff and Escobar is there in the next round and I take him. If I hadn't looked at ADP's, I may have taken Escobar and not gotten both. If I had Escobar ranked significantly higher than Huff, I would have taken him first and disregarded ADP's, because my rankings come first, but ADP's are not a bad tie-breaker.

That being said, once a guy goes, he is gone and no ADP is bringing him back! One night all the best middle relievers lasted a long time and I got a few of them. The next night most went 4-5 rounds earlier and I didn't get any. So, you can only use ADP's as a guideline and not gospel.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Fri Mar 30, 2007 5:43 am

Freddiezee , i agree with you on adp, it is a tool that can help like in your case with grabbing HUFF , then hoping ESCOBAR makes it back.IT worked for myself in the main , in round 12 i wanted IROD and HAWPE , I KNEW that IROD would not make it back at pick 13, his ADP is 10th or 11th, so we took IROD and hoping HAWPE who goes later than IROD would be there.IT also worked for us as we got both of them.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Fri Mar 30, 2007 5:47 am

freddiezee and eddieg (hey, that rhymes!)

You guys have it exactly right. Don't use ADP as the bible, but rather as a guide to help you decide when to take certain guys who are closely valued.

Well done on both Escobar and Hawpe...