Winning an NFBC national championship is cause for celebration on its own. Winning a national title on the final day of the season?
Now that’s something to cherish forever.
That’s exactly what Clark Olson accomplished in style in 2024.
Facing a serious challenge from Jason Santeiu heading into the season’s final day, Olson made the final day of the 2024 season the most memorable one possible, taking home the industry’s most prestigious honor by 77 points, earning the NFBC Charter Member the $200,000 grand prize and his claim at fantasy baseball’s immortality.
“Winning gave me a feeling of both great joy and relief,” said Olson,” who has also won the one of most the illustrious honors in fantasy football – the NFFC’s Primetime championship in in 2016. “It takes a lot of work and a lot of luck to beat all of the great players in the NFBC. It was my first overall title in any NFBC contest, second including football after some close calls in the past. Checking that off my bucket list was priceless.
“It was a really close race between my team and Jason Santieu's two teams. We traded the top spot a few times and I was actually in second going into the final Sunday. This was definitely stressful, but I kept my hopes up and my team came through in the end.”
No question about that.
Olson became the 20th different Main Event champion in the 21 years of this contest, with only Lindy HInkelman having won this title twice. He joined the NFBC in 2004 and was the first back-to-back champion of Main Event league titles in 2004 and 2005. He had four Main Event teams this year and they finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 5th in their leagues, while finishing 1st, 23rd and 62nd overall. He now has won 10 Main Event league titles in his career, third best behind NFBC Hall of Famers Mark Srebro and Steve Jupinka.
He has won Main Event league titles in 2004, 2005, 2012, 2017, 2020, 2021,2022, 2023, 2023 and 2024, an incredible run since 2020. He has certainly made a strong case for a Hall of Fame induction himself with 21 consistently good years.
Olson’s title certainly was well earned. His league included past NFBC Main Event overall champions Lindy Hinkelman, Dave Potts and James Tomony. But he made it work in this league and finished with 142 league points to win this title going away.
HInkelman, the only two-time Main Event overall champion from the past 21 years, finished second in this league with 107.5 points and Tomony finished third with 100.5 points. Clark built the foundation of his team around Jose Ramirez and Shohei Ohtani.
“I start every season thinking I can realistically win the overall title,” he said. “Needless to say, it doesn't usually go that way.
“By June, I was pretty confident this team could be a contender after moving into the top 10 and (briefly) moving into the lead for the first time. In August, I opened up a pretty good lead, before falling a little back again, but I certainly expected to finish near the top at that point.”
While hitting on two cornerstone stars (Ramirez and Ohtani) were critical to Olson’s Championship run, as is so often the case some shrewd FAAB worked also proved critical as well.
“The two most important (pickups) were Blake Snell, who I spent $360 on (way more than the runner-up) and Xavier Edwards for $16,” Olson said. “I don't think anybody else really moved the needle, but I did get a couple of nice weeks out of Luke Weaver for $10 to end the season.”
Clark's Hell Bent for Leather team finished with a winning total of 7,839.5 points or 91.7 percent of all available points, which ranks fourth best among all Main Event overall champions. His 142.0 league points is the sixth highest among all NFBC Main Event overall champions. The NFBC Main Event finished with a record 855 teams in 2024.
And once the dust settled on Olson’s championship season he found the perfect way to spend some of his hard-earned winnings.
“I got a nice present for my understanding wife,”
The perfect end to the perfect season.
2024 NFBC Champions Profile - Clark Olson
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Tom Kessenich
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2024 NFBC Champions Profile - Clark Olson
Tom Kessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
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CC's Desperados
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Re: 2024 NFBC Champions Profile - Clark Olson
I did a lengthy write-up about Clark Olson's winning team (https://fantasyanalyst.substack.com/p/2 ... nner-draft).
2024 NFBC Main Event Winner Draft
The high-stakes fantasy baseball market draws players from various life backgrounds and home playing fields. Many Yahoos get run over by the more challenging competition because the quickest to the computer no longer wins the game in the waiver wire world. Those bogus “hit-them-with-volume trades to steal a stud player and backfill the lost players with the best available options in the free agent pool” are closed in nontrading formats. In the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, any success is driven by drafting well, staying healthy, and in-season team management. At the same time, the invested players must have success on the field and exceed expectations to win an overall prize.
Clark Olson came to the NFBC with an edge in his fantasy knowledge and experience thanks to multiple overall titles in ESPN’s Uber Fantasy Challenge. His path to success is data-driven, highlighted by his hit-the-ground-running success in the main event in their first two seasons (2004 and 2005). Fantasy baseball is a humbling game, and the best of the best must improve their decision-making to have long-term success. From 2006 to 2016, he only won one other NFBC main event title (2012). I’m sure reflection, sleepless nights, and some spreadsheet tinkering led to a rekindled bounce in his fantasy step over the past five seasons. Since 2020, Olson has picked up six titles while taking home the Holy Fantasy Baseball Grail in 2024 (NFBC overall title and a check for $200,000). His success this year also earned him a spot in the NFBC Baseball Hall of Fame.
In an effort to help my game and potentially see the light for my recent fantasy mistakes, I’m going to walk through his 2024 winning season in three steps: draft, waiver wire pickups, and weekly looks at his lineup.
From November to late March, the player pool has many changes due to research, injuries, and even outside player news. The most significant impact on NFBC's main event live drafts came from the potential gambling scandal and the possible suspension of Shohei Ohtani. To win an overall title, drafting impact players with separator stats is imperative. Olson drew or moved to pick 15 in his winning NFBC main event. Four of the top six hitters in 2024 were drafted after pick 10 in many drafts, giving the back end of drafts an edge offensive production if drafting two of these players.
Here's his draft while adding their final rankings by my FPGscore (https://fantasyanalyst.substack.com/p/2 ... seball-be8):
Note: I ranked their score by hitter or pitcher, not combined rankings.
1.15 Jose Ramirez, CLE (Ranked 4th – +12.04)
Over my recent fantasy career, I’ve passed, overlooked, and disrespected Ramirez's foundation skill set. His short-pudgy physique screams a downturn in speed, and his rise in power was helped by a change to a flyball swing path in 2018 and repeated in six of the past seven seasons. Ramirez set a career-high in runs (114), RBIs (118), and steals (41) while matching his career-best in home runs (39). He’s missed 15 games over the past three seasons, leading three consecutive years with over 600 at-bats (601, 611, and 620).
2.1 Shohei Ohtani, LAD (Ranked 1st – +19.55)
If Ohtani doesn’t slide to Olson on the one/two turn, he doesn’t win the overall title, and Clark may not have won his main event. Ohtani led the National League in plate appearances (731), runs (134), home runs (54), and RBIs (130) while finishing second in steals (59). No other player in MLB history has posted a 50/50 season. For kicks, he even hit over .300 (.310 – second in the NL) for the second consecutive season.
After two players, Olson has a massive edge in runs (248), home runs (93), RBIs (248), and steals (100). Earlier in my fantasy career, I dreamed of getting 75 home runs and 75 steals with my first three hitters.
3.15 Randy Arozarena, SEA (Ranked 93rd – -0.98)
Based on playing time (549 at-bats) and counting stats (77/20/60/20), Arozarena was a helpful player. Unfortunately, his negative batting average (.219 – a career-low by a wide margin) led to him underachieving his draft position.
4.1 Aaron Nola, PHI (Ranked 27th – +2.37)
In the NFBC main event, I don’t consider Nola a true ace due to his propensity to mix multiple disaster starts on the heels of some brilliant games. He did beat the league average in ERA (3.57), with help in wins (14) and strikeouts (197). Nola hasn’t missed a start, I believe, since 2017, making him a proven veteran player. He allowed a National League high in home runs (30) while giving up four runs or more in seven of his 33 starts.
5.15 Alexis Diaz, CIN (Ranked 96th – -2.46)
The quest for saves can be brutal sometimes when investing in a high draft pick. The idea of drafting Diaz coming into 2024 was the hopes of getting some vulture wins (16 over his first two seasons with the Reds) while setting a reasonable floor in saves (37 in 2023) and some help in strikeouts (86 in 2023). In the end, he lost his strikeout ability (8.8 per nine – 11.5 in 2023), leading to too many down days and not enough saves (28), especially when adding his weakness in ERA (3.99) and WHIP (1.296).
6.1 Adley Rutschman, BAL (Ranked 103rd – -1.46)
Rostering a high at-bat catcher who hits in a favorable part of the batting order can turn into a massive edge if that hitter plays up to expectations. Rutschman slid past his ADP, and Olson thought he landed a steal in this draft. Unfortunately, he failed to reach his previous season in runs (68 – 84), home runs (19 – 20), and RBIs (79 – 80), with a sharp regression in batting average (.250 – .277). At the All-Star break, Rutschman was a helpful player (.276/47/16/59/1). Surprisingly, he lost his way over his final 208 at-bats (.207/21/3/20).
7.15 Tanner Scott, SD (Ranked 25th – +2.48)
Scott was a helpful player for the season, but a midseason trade led to only four saves (22 on the year) in August and September. His stats with Miami (6-5 with a 1.18 ERA, 1.007 WHIP, 53 strikeouts, and 18 saves over 45.2 innings) gave Clark help in all pitching categories. The move to the Padres led to a regression in his ERA (2.73) and WHIP (1.329). Scott will go down as a “keep up in the game pick” with time to address his lost closing opportunity.
Instead of two aces and one closer as his foundation, Olson wanted to save free-agent dollars and potential roster slots on closers in waiting. This plan after three pitchers left him behind the best pitching staffs in the overall standings.
8.1 Joe Musgrove, SD (Ranked 157th – -474)
Over his last six tee shots, Olson missed the fairway more than expected, considering this is an overall winning team. Musgrove gave him 19 reasonable starts (6-5 with a 3.88 ERA, 1.174 WHIP, and 101 strikeouts over 99.2 innings), but he crushed him in April (27 runs, 58 baserunners, and nine home runs over 35.0 innings with 27 strikeouts). Musgrove landed on the injured list twice in May, costing him over nine weeks of the season. I would be surprised if Olson caught his final nine starts (2.15 ERA, 0.874 WHIP, and 57 strikeouts over 50.1 innings).
9.15 Josh Naylor, CLE (Ranked 30th – +2.86)
The first base position was minefield from round 8 to round 12 in last year's main event drafts. On the positive side, Naylor was the winning investment in the area. He finished with career-highs in at-bats (563), runs (84), home runs (31), and RBIs (108) despite a step back in batting average (.243). There is something to be said for drafting a hitter that is one-off on the batting order from a stud. Hitting behind Jose Ramirez should create more RBI chances (412), and Naylor has been successful with runners on base over the past three seasons (RBI rate – 20.0).
10.1 Hunter Greene, CIN (Ranked 28th – +2.19)
Greene missed 39 days in August and September last season. Over his first 24 starts, he went 9-4 with a 2.83 ERA, 1.019 WHIP, and 162 strikeouts over 143.1 innings. He had five disaster starts (25 runs, 40 baserunners, and six home runs over 33.1 innings) over this span. Greene finished the year with 19 hit batters. In essence, Olson found a value ace that delivered winning stats for about 80 % of the season.
11.15 Anthony Santander, BAL (Ranked 24th – +3.80)
Other than batting average (.235), Santander was a beast selection in this part of the draft. His at-bat total (595) was the best of his career while increasing for the fourth consecutive season. He set new tops in runs (91), home runs (44), and RBIs (102). Coming into 2024, Santander had a proven bar in 2022 (.240/78/33/89) and 2023 (.257/81/28/95), and the Orioles came into the year with plenty of excitement and upside about their offense. His quest for power led to a massive jump in his fly ball rate (54.8 – 49.8 in 2022 and 49.7 in 2023) but easier outs via popups despite having an improved approach.
12.1 Willy Adames, MIL (Ranked 13th – +5.82)
Adames delivered first-round fantasy value thanks to adding more speed (21 steals – previous best of eight in 2022) to his stat line. He set career highs in at-bats (610), runs (93), home runs (32), and RBIs (112). Just like Santander, he came into the season with success in back-to-back years in the counting categories (83/31/98/8 and 73/24/80/5), but he did offer batting average risk (2022 – .238 and 2023 – .217). His one weakness (BA – .251) finished higher than expected, considering his high number of strikeouts (173 – 504 over his last 1,726 at-bats).
After 12 rounds, here’s his lineup structure: C, 1B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, UT, SP, SP, SP, CL, and CL
13.15 Nathan Eovaldi, TEX (Ranked 41st – +0.81)
The attraction to Eovaldi was his expected value in WHIP, thanks to his ability to limit the number of free passes. He finished with a three-year high in starts (29 – 20 in 2022 and 25 in 2023) with a minimal change in his ERA (3.80 – 3.74 from 2020 to 2023). The previous season, Eovaldi was the toughest to hit in his career (.225), and he almost repeated his success in this area last year (.229 BAA), leading to a winning WHIP (1.107) and help in wins (12) and strikeouts (166).
14.1 Jeremy Pena, HOU (Ranked 52nd – +1.08)
The best assets Pena had heading into 2024 were his plate appearances (634) and at-bat total (577). He underachieved in 2023 (.263/81/10/52/13) compared to his rookie season (.253/72/22/63/11 over 521 at-bats). Last season, Pena sat out only five games while delivering a competitive category year (.266/78/15/70/20) while setting a new top in at-bats (602).
After eight batters, his lowest at-bat total is 549, giving Olson 12.1% of the top 66 hitters in playing time. In a 15-team league, each team should have had about 4.4 batters with about 550 at-bats based on last year’s stats.
15.15 Jonathan India, CIN (Ranked 89th – -0.88)
The Reds lineup and offensive structure heading into 2024 was loaded with depth, suggesting India didn’t have a clear path to everyday at-bats. An injury to Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Matt McLain, added to the 80-game suspension to Noelvi Marte, cleared the way for a better opportunity a couple of months into the season. The Reds had him in their lineup for 151 games, leading to a steady season in four categories (runs – 84, home runs – 15, RBIs – 58, and steals – 13). He beat the major average (.243) in batting average (.248) while finishing as a liability in this area in the NFBC target goal.
16.1 Masataka Yoshida, BOS (Ranked 174th – -4.13)
Yoshida should have been an excellent fit for this team based on his early team build in power and some batting average risk. Unfortunately, a left thumb issue and a right shoulder injury led to 54 missed games and surgery after the season. He finished the year with a .280 batting average with 45 runs, 10 home runs, 56 RBIs, and two steals. Yoshida was the first whiff in this draft due to health issues, and I would expect him to be replaced by Olson sometime in May or June.
17.15 Sean Manaea, NYM (Ranked 26th – +2.43)
From 2020 to 2023, Manaea went 30-28 with a 4.42 ERA, 1.250 WHIP, and 523 strikeouts over 509.0 innings. His WHIP and value strikeouts suggested a much better arm, and he did have a winning walk rate (2.4) over his first eight years in the majors. Manaea finished with the best season of his career (12-6 with a 3.47 ERA, 1.084 WHIP, and 184 strikeouts over 181.2 innings). His growth was tied to him being more challenging to hit (.202 BAA), an area he showed growth in during his 2023 season (.234). Manaea was the second starting pitcher selected by Olson after round 10 who he gravitated toward command and an improving pitch mix.
18.1 Gerrit Cole, NYY (Ranked 118th – -3.22)
In the early days of auction leagues in the NFBC, the Longood’s had a high level of success by buying discounted star players. Cole developed a right elbow injury in March, creating a free fall in his ADP, and the Yankees placed him on the 60-day injured list on March 28th. Some of the top fantasy players in the NFBC excel at interpreting injury information – when to avoid at all costs and when to buy an elite player at a discount. Olson took a swing on the Cole with the hopes of getting at least a half-season out of him. As his sixth starting pitcher, he knew that reward outweighed the risk. In the end, Cole returned to the mound on June 19th, but his right arm didn’t look healthy after his first seven starts (21 runs, 51 baserunners, and nine home runs over 35.0 innings). Over the final two months of the year, he went 5-3 with a 2.25 ERA, 0.933 WHIP, and 61 strikeouts over 60.0 innings, pushing Olson up the overall standings in the main event.
19.15 Bryan De La Cruz, MIA (Ranked 128th – -2.52)
De La Cruz checked the winning box in at-bats (584) while offering the most value over his first 74 games (.252 with 35 runs, 14 home runs, 35 RBIs, and one stolen base). His bat lost all starting fantasy value after the All-Star break (.216/20/5/24/3 over 204 at-bats), and I’m confident Olson replaced him via the free agent pool at some point over the second half of the season.
20.1 Jon Gray, TEX (Ranked 260th – -7.17)
For the year, Gray was a disaster selection. He did help Olson over his first 13 starts (2-2 with a 2.17 ERA, 1.203 WHIP, and 63 strikeouts over 13 games). He crushed fantasy teams in two of his final three starts in June (17 runs, 21 baserunners, and four home runs over eight innings), leading to his ERA fall to 3.77. One of those starts would have been easy to avoid (@BAL). Gray made only three more starts after a respectable July (2-0 with a 3.57 ERA, 1.132 WHIP, and nine strikeouts over 17.2 innings) due to groin and foot issues.
To fill his starting lineup (23 players), Olson needs these positions (C2, CO, and OF) after 20 rounds.
21.15 Ranger Suarez, PHI (Ranked 56th – -0.30)
Saurez gave fantasy teams an impactful boost after a sensational first 10 starts (9-1 with a 1.36 ERA, 0.789 WHIP, and 68 strikeouts over 66.0 innings). Unfortunately, he gave back much of his gains over his final 17 starts (only three wins with a 5.10 ERA and 1.524 WHIP) while missing a month after the All-Star break.
22.1 Nathaniel Lowe, TEX (Ranked 117th – -2.01)
Lowe came into last year with over 550 at-bast in three consecutive seasons (557, 593, and 623) while missing only 11 games from 2021 to 2023. A mid-March oblique issue led to him missing the first three weeks of the season while creating a discount on draft day. He finished the season with serviceable production in four categories (BA – .265, R – 62, HR – 16, and RBIs – 69) over 486 at-bats.
23.15 Brendan Rodgers, COL (Ranked 146th – -2.94)
The Rockies gave Rodgers 1,593 at-bats over the past four seasons, but he had yet to live up to his first-round pedigree. I’m sure Olson kicked him to the curb by the All-Star break based on his stats over his first 76 games (.268/31/5/28/1 over 280 at-bats). Rodgers’ production did improve over his final 11 weeks of the season (.267 with 35 runs, eight runs, and 26 RBIs over 221 at-bats).
24.1 Andrew Heaney, TEX (Ranked 142nd – -1.49)
Heaney was a challenging ride over his first 10 starts (4.69 ERA, 1.375 WHIP, and eight home runs over 48.0 innings), leading to five exits before finishing five innings. He did offer winning stats over his next nine starts (2.72 ERA, 1.107 WHIP, and 55 strikeouts over 49.2 innings) before fading over the second half of the season (5.40 ERA, 1.267 WHIP, and 58 strikeouts over 60.0 innings).
25.15 Harrison Bader, NYM (Ranked 148th – -3.05)
Based on his at-bats (402), Bader delivered helpful stats in runs (57), home runs (12), RBIs (51), and steals (17). Unfortunately, he was challenging to time due to his platoon role. Most of his production came before the All-Star break (.273/39/8/36/13 over 264 at-bats).
26.1 Yoan Moncada, CWS (Ranked 531st – -11.68)
Moncada went down as a bust selection due to 150 missed games with multiple injuries. On the positive side, his early trip to the injury list gives a fantasy manager the best chance of finding a potentially helpful player off the waiver wire.
27.15 Johan Rojas, PHI (Ranked 188th – -4.63)
The run at Rojas was expected to be a manageable option on the bench for steals. He finished with 25 stolen bases over 338 at-bats while being a liability in home runs (3), RBIs (32), and batting average (.243). The Phillies gave him 153 at-bats in April and May (.229/19/2/17/13), but Rojas played his way to the free-agent pool in fantasy baseball leagues.
28.1 Jose Quintana, NYM (Ranked 95th – -2.40)
In a non-trading format like the NFBC, there is something to be said for a starting pitcher who wins one-third of his starts. Quintana was a liability in strikeouts (135 over 170.1 innings), but he won 10 of his 31 starts (32.2%) with a reasonable ERA (3.75) and WHIP (1.25).
29.15 Erick Fedde, CWS (Ranked 58th – -0.33)
Fedde came into last season with a 21-33 record in the majors with a 5.41 ERA, 1.523 WHIP, and 352 strikeouts over 454.1 innings). Based on these stats, he appeared to be an easy avoid for drafters. Fedde gained momentum in March after a great year pitching Korea in 2023 (20-6 with a 2.00 ERA, 0.954 WHIP, and 209 strikeouts over 180.1 innings). Olson took a flier on him, and Fedde rewarded his dart with a career year (9-9 with a 3.30 ERA, 1,162 WHIP, and 154 strikeouts over 177.1 innings).
30.1 Yan Gomes, CHC (Ranked 544th – 11.78)
The second catcher position wasn’t important for Olson in this draft. Gomes only had 91 at-bats the year with seven runs, two home runs, and seven RBIs. He’ll surf the free agent pool for viable options, with a goal of finding 50 runs, 15 home runs, and 50 RBIs from the position for all catcher swings.
A Walk to Remember
Before I work my way through Clark Olson’s winner main event season in 2024, I wanted to walk through some weekly checkpoints to help fantasy managers see the road to a championship better. When the gate opens for a fantasy baseball season in the high-stakes market with an overall championship, the goal is to have a balanced team that will compete to be in the top 20% of all 10 Roto categories.
In my Fantasy Baseball Basics Article (https://fantasyanalyst.substack.com/p/f ... basics-fcc), I lay out the season targets (12-team format – they are slightly lower for 15-team leagues) for the upcoming season based on what happened on the fantasy baseball field in this event in 2024. The next step is breaking down the data into weekly targets to help get a feel for the strengths and weaknesses of your team. Here’s a look at what it takes over 27 weeks (162 games divided by 6 per week ~ Note: there are two half weeks played during the year – opening weekend and the All-Star break).
Reviewing weekly targets helps to understand the long-season goals. At the same time, a fantasy manager must have a feel for his team’s potential to avoid kicking a struggling star player to the curb or putting too much faith in an overachieving player over the long haul. Knowing when to get on and off the bus of replacement-type players covering injuries or draft day weaknesses in their starting lineup is a challenge and an area in which some game managers excel.
His week-to-week stats and waiver pickups can be found in the entire article on my Substack page (https://fantasyanalyst.substack.com/p/2 ... nner-draft)
2024 NFBC Main Event Winner Draft
The high-stakes fantasy baseball market draws players from various life backgrounds and home playing fields. Many Yahoos get run over by the more challenging competition because the quickest to the computer no longer wins the game in the waiver wire world. Those bogus “hit-them-with-volume trades to steal a stud player and backfill the lost players with the best available options in the free agent pool” are closed in nontrading formats. In the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, any success is driven by drafting well, staying healthy, and in-season team management. At the same time, the invested players must have success on the field and exceed expectations to win an overall prize.
Clark Olson came to the NFBC with an edge in his fantasy knowledge and experience thanks to multiple overall titles in ESPN’s Uber Fantasy Challenge. His path to success is data-driven, highlighted by his hit-the-ground-running success in the main event in their first two seasons (2004 and 2005). Fantasy baseball is a humbling game, and the best of the best must improve their decision-making to have long-term success. From 2006 to 2016, he only won one other NFBC main event title (2012). I’m sure reflection, sleepless nights, and some spreadsheet tinkering led to a rekindled bounce in his fantasy step over the past five seasons. Since 2020, Olson has picked up six titles while taking home the Holy Fantasy Baseball Grail in 2024 (NFBC overall title and a check for $200,000). His success this year also earned him a spot in the NFBC Baseball Hall of Fame.
In an effort to help my game and potentially see the light for my recent fantasy mistakes, I’m going to walk through his 2024 winning season in three steps: draft, waiver wire pickups, and weekly looks at his lineup.
From November to late March, the player pool has many changes due to research, injuries, and even outside player news. The most significant impact on NFBC's main event live drafts came from the potential gambling scandal and the possible suspension of Shohei Ohtani. To win an overall title, drafting impact players with separator stats is imperative. Olson drew or moved to pick 15 in his winning NFBC main event. Four of the top six hitters in 2024 were drafted after pick 10 in many drafts, giving the back end of drafts an edge offensive production if drafting two of these players.
Here's his draft while adding their final rankings by my FPGscore (https://fantasyanalyst.substack.com/p/2 ... seball-be8):
Note: I ranked their score by hitter or pitcher, not combined rankings.
1.15 Jose Ramirez, CLE (Ranked 4th – +12.04)
Over my recent fantasy career, I’ve passed, overlooked, and disrespected Ramirez's foundation skill set. His short-pudgy physique screams a downturn in speed, and his rise in power was helped by a change to a flyball swing path in 2018 and repeated in six of the past seven seasons. Ramirez set a career-high in runs (114), RBIs (118), and steals (41) while matching his career-best in home runs (39). He’s missed 15 games over the past three seasons, leading three consecutive years with over 600 at-bats (601, 611, and 620).
2.1 Shohei Ohtani, LAD (Ranked 1st – +19.55)
If Ohtani doesn’t slide to Olson on the one/two turn, he doesn’t win the overall title, and Clark may not have won his main event. Ohtani led the National League in plate appearances (731), runs (134), home runs (54), and RBIs (130) while finishing second in steals (59). No other player in MLB history has posted a 50/50 season. For kicks, he even hit over .300 (.310 – second in the NL) for the second consecutive season.
After two players, Olson has a massive edge in runs (248), home runs (93), RBIs (248), and steals (100). Earlier in my fantasy career, I dreamed of getting 75 home runs and 75 steals with my first three hitters.
3.15 Randy Arozarena, SEA (Ranked 93rd – -0.98)
Based on playing time (549 at-bats) and counting stats (77/20/60/20), Arozarena was a helpful player. Unfortunately, his negative batting average (.219 – a career-low by a wide margin) led to him underachieving his draft position.
4.1 Aaron Nola, PHI (Ranked 27th – +2.37)
In the NFBC main event, I don’t consider Nola a true ace due to his propensity to mix multiple disaster starts on the heels of some brilliant games. He did beat the league average in ERA (3.57), with help in wins (14) and strikeouts (197). Nola hasn’t missed a start, I believe, since 2017, making him a proven veteran player. He allowed a National League high in home runs (30) while giving up four runs or more in seven of his 33 starts.
5.15 Alexis Diaz, CIN (Ranked 96th – -2.46)
The quest for saves can be brutal sometimes when investing in a high draft pick. The idea of drafting Diaz coming into 2024 was the hopes of getting some vulture wins (16 over his first two seasons with the Reds) while setting a reasonable floor in saves (37 in 2023) and some help in strikeouts (86 in 2023). In the end, he lost his strikeout ability (8.8 per nine – 11.5 in 2023), leading to too many down days and not enough saves (28), especially when adding his weakness in ERA (3.99) and WHIP (1.296).
6.1 Adley Rutschman, BAL (Ranked 103rd – -1.46)
Rostering a high at-bat catcher who hits in a favorable part of the batting order can turn into a massive edge if that hitter plays up to expectations. Rutschman slid past his ADP, and Olson thought he landed a steal in this draft. Unfortunately, he failed to reach his previous season in runs (68 – 84), home runs (19 – 20), and RBIs (79 – 80), with a sharp regression in batting average (.250 – .277). At the All-Star break, Rutschman was a helpful player (.276/47/16/59/1). Surprisingly, he lost his way over his final 208 at-bats (.207/21/3/20).
7.15 Tanner Scott, SD (Ranked 25th – +2.48)
Scott was a helpful player for the season, but a midseason trade led to only four saves (22 on the year) in August and September. His stats with Miami (6-5 with a 1.18 ERA, 1.007 WHIP, 53 strikeouts, and 18 saves over 45.2 innings) gave Clark help in all pitching categories. The move to the Padres led to a regression in his ERA (2.73) and WHIP (1.329). Scott will go down as a “keep up in the game pick” with time to address his lost closing opportunity.
Instead of two aces and one closer as his foundation, Olson wanted to save free-agent dollars and potential roster slots on closers in waiting. This plan after three pitchers left him behind the best pitching staffs in the overall standings.
8.1 Joe Musgrove, SD (Ranked 157th – -474)
Over his last six tee shots, Olson missed the fairway more than expected, considering this is an overall winning team. Musgrove gave him 19 reasonable starts (6-5 with a 3.88 ERA, 1.174 WHIP, and 101 strikeouts over 99.2 innings), but he crushed him in April (27 runs, 58 baserunners, and nine home runs over 35.0 innings with 27 strikeouts). Musgrove landed on the injured list twice in May, costing him over nine weeks of the season. I would be surprised if Olson caught his final nine starts (2.15 ERA, 0.874 WHIP, and 57 strikeouts over 50.1 innings).
9.15 Josh Naylor, CLE (Ranked 30th – +2.86)
The first base position was minefield from round 8 to round 12 in last year's main event drafts. On the positive side, Naylor was the winning investment in the area. He finished with career-highs in at-bats (563), runs (84), home runs (31), and RBIs (108) despite a step back in batting average (.243). There is something to be said for drafting a hitter that is one-off on the batting order from a stud. Hitting behind Jose Ramirez should create more RBI chances (412), and Naylor has been successful with runners on base over the past three seasons (RBI rate – 20.0).
10.1 Hunter Greene, CIN (Ranked 28th – +2.19)
Greene missed 39 days in August and September last season. Over his first 24 starts, he went 9-4 with a 2.83 ERA, 1.019 WHIP, and 162 strikeouts over 143.1 innings. He had five disaster starts (25 runs, 40 baserunners, and six home runs over 33.1 innings) over this span. Greene finished the year with 19 hit batters. In essence, Olson found a value ace that delivered winning stats for about 80 % of the season.
11.15 Anthony Santander, BAL (Ranked 24th – +3.80)
Other than batting average (.235), Santander was a beast selection in this part of the draft. His at-bat total (595) was the best of his career while increasing for the fourth consecutive season. He set new tops in runs (91), home runs (44), and RBIs (102). Coming into 2024, Santander had a proven bar in 2022 (.240/78/33/89) and 2023 (.257/81/28/95), and the Orioles came into the year with plenty of excitement and upside about their offense. His quest for power led to a massive jump in his fly ball rate (54.8 – 49.8 in 2022 and 49.7 in 2023) but easier outs via popups despite having an improved approach.
12.1 Willy Adames, MIL (Ranked 13th – +5.82)
Adames delivered first-round fantasy value thanks to adding more speed (21 steals – previous best of eight in 2022) to his stat line. He set career highs in at-bats (610), runs (93), home runs (32), and RBIs (112). Just like Santander, he came into the season with success in back-to-back years in the counting categories (83/31/98/8 and 73/24/80/5), but he did offer batting average risk (2022 – .238 and 2023 – .217). His one weakness (BA – .251) finished higher than expected, considering his high number of strikeouts (173 – 504 over his last 1,726 at-bats).
After 12 rounds, here’s his lineup structure: C, 1B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, UT, SP, SP, SP, CL, and CL
13.15 Nathan Eovaldi, TEX (Ranked 41st – +0.81)
The attraction to Eovaldi was his expected value in WHIP, thanks to his ability to limit the number of free passes. He finished with a three-year high in starts (29 – 20 in 2022 and 25 in 2023) with a minimal change in his ERA (3.80 – 3.74 from 2020 to 2023). The previous season, Eovaldi was the toughest to hit in his career (.225), and he almost repeated his success in this area last year (.229 BAA), leading to a winning WHIP (1.107) and help in wins (12) and strikeouts (166).
14.1 Jeremy Pena, HOU (Ranked 52nd – +1.08)
The best assets Pena had heading into 2024 were his plate appearances (634) and at-bat total (577). He underachieved in 2023 (.263/81/10/52/13) compared to his rookie season (.253/72/22/63/11 over 521 at-bats). Last season, Pena sat out only five games while delivering a competitive category year (.266/78/15/70/20) while setting a new top in at-bats (602).
After eight batters, his lowest at-bat total is 549, giving Olson 12.1% of the top 66 hitters in playing time. In a 15-team league, each team should have had about 4.4 batters with about 550 at-bats based on last year’s stats.
15.15 Jonathan India, CIN (Ranked 89th – -0.88)
The Reds lineup and offensive structure heading into 2024 was loaded with depth, suggesting India didn’t have a clear path to everyday at-bats. An injury to Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Matt McLain, added to the 80-game suspension to Noelvi Marte, cleared the way for a better opportunity a couple of months into the season. The Reds had him in their lineup for 151 games, leading to a steady season in four categories (runs – 84, home runs – 15, RBIs – 58, and steals – 13). He beat the major average (.243) in batting average (.248) while finishing as a liability in this area in the NFBC target goal.
16.1 Masataka Yoshida, BOS (Ranked 174th – -4.13)
Yoshida should have been an excellent fit for this team based on his early team build in power and some batting average risk. Unfortunately, a left thumb issue and a right shoulder injury led to 54 missed games and surgery after the season. He finished the year with a .280 batting average with 45 runs, 10 home runs, 56 RBIs, and two steals. Yoshida was the first whiff in this draft due to health issues, and I would expect him to be replaced by Olson sometime in May or June.
17.15 Sean Manaea, NYM (Ranked 26th – +2.43)
From 2020 to 2023, Manaea went 30-28 with a 4.42 ERA, 1.250 WHIP, and 523 strikeouts over 509.0 innings. His WHIP and value strikeouts suggested a much better arm, and he did have a winning walk rate (2.4) over his first eight years in the majors. Manaea finished with the best season of his career (12-6 with a 3.47 ERA, 1.084 WHIP, and 184 strikeouts over 181.2 innings). His growth was tied to him being more challenging to hit (.202 BAA), an area he showed growth in during his 2023 season (.234). Manaea was the second starting pitcher selected by Olson after round 10 who he gravitated toward command and an improving pitch mix.
18.1 Gerrit Cole, NYY (Ranked 118th – -3.22)
In the early days of auction leagues in the NFBC, the Longood’s had a high level of success by buying discounted star players. Cole developed a right elbow injury in March, creating a free fall in his ADP, and the Yankees placed him on the 60-day injured list on March 28th. Some of the top fantasy players in the NFBC excel at interpreting injury information – when to avoid at all costs and when to buy an elite player at a discount. Olson took a swing on the Cole with the hopes of getting at least a half-season out of him. As his sixth starting pitcher, he knew that reward outweighed the risk. In the end, Cole returned to the mound on June 19th, but his right arm didn’t look healthy after his first seven starts (21 runs, 51 baserunners, and nine home runs over 35.0 innings). Over the final two months of the year, he went 5-3 with a 2.25 ERA, 0.933 WHIP, and 61 strikeouts over 60.0 innings, pushing Olson up the overall standings in the main event.
19.15 Bryan De La Cruz, MIA (Ranked 128th – -2.52)
De La Cruz checked the winning box in at-bats (584) while offering the most value over his first 74 games (.252 with 35 runs, 14 home runs, 35 RBIs, and one stolen base). His bat lost all starting fantasy value after the All-Star break (.216/20/5/24/3 over 204 at-bats), and I’m confident Olson replaced him via the free agent pool at some point over the second half of the season.
20.1 Jon Gray, TEX (Ranked 260th – -7.17)
For the year, Gray was a disaster selection. He did help Olson over his first 13 starts (2-2 with a 2.17 ERA, 1.203 WHIP, and 63 strikeouts over 13 games). He crushed fantasy teams in two of his final three starts in June (17 runs, 21 baserunners, and four home runs over eight innings), leading to his ERA fall to 3.77. One of those starts would have been easy to avoid (@BAL). Gray made only three more starts after a respectable July (2-0 with a 3.57 ERA, 1.132 WHIP, and nine strikeouts over 17.2 innings) due to groin and foot issues.
To fill his starting lineup (23 players), Olson needs these positions (C2, CO, and OF) after 20 rounds.
21.15 Ranger Suarez, PHI (Ranked 56th – -0.30)
Saurez gave fantasy teams an impactful boost after a sensational first 10 starts (9-1 with a 1.36 ERA, 0.789 WHIP, and 68 strikeouts over 66.0 innings). Unfortunately, he gave back much of his gains over his final 17 starts (only three wins with a 5.10 ERA and 1.524 WHIP) while missing a month after the All-Star break.
22.1 Nathaniel Lowe, TEX (Ranked 117th – -2.01)
Lowe came into last year with over 550 at-bast in three consecutive seasons (557, 593, and 623) while missing only 11 games from 2021 to 2023. A mid-March oblique issue led to him missing the first three weeks of the season while creating a discount on draft day. He finished the season with serviceable production in four categories (BA – .265, R – 62, HR – 16, and RBIs – 69) over 486 at-bats.
23.15 Brendan Rodgers, COL (Ranked 146th – -2.94)
The Rockies gave Rodgers 1,593 at-bats over the past four seasons, but he had yet to live up to his first-round pedigree. I’m sure Olson kicked him to the curb by the All-Star break based on his stats over his first 76 games (.268/31/5/28/1 over 280 at-bats). Rodgers’ production did improve over his final 11 weeks of the season (.267 with 35 runs, eight runs, and 26 RBIs over 221 at-bats).
24.1 Andrew Heaney, TEX (Ranked 142nd – -1.49)
Heaney was a challenging ride over his first 10 starts (4.69 ERA, 1.375 WHIP, and eight home runs over 48.0 innings), leading to five exits before finishing five innings. He did offer winning stats over his next nine starts (2.72 ERA, 1.107 WHIP, and 55 strikeouts over 49.2 innings) before fading over the second half of the season (5.40 ERA, 1.267 WHIP, and 58 strikeouts over 60.0 innings).
25.15 Harrison Bader, NYM (Ranked 148th – -3.05)
Based on his at-bats (402), Bader delivered helpful stats in runs (57), home runs (12), RBIs (51), and steals (17). Unfortunately, he was challenging to time due to his platoon role. Most of his production came before the All-Star break (.273/39/8/36/13 over 264 at-bats).
26.1 Yoan Moncada, CWS (Ranked 531st – -11.68)
Moncada went down as a bust selection due to 150 missed games with multiple injuries. On the positive side, his early trip to the injury list gives a fantasy manager the best chance of finding a potentially helpful player off the waiver wire.
27.15 Johan Rojas, PHI (Ranked 188th – -4.63)
The run at Rojas was expected to be a manageable option on the bench for steals. He finished with 25 stolen bases over 338 at-bats while being a liability in home runs (3), RBIs (32), and batting average (.243). The Phillies gave him 153 at-bats in April and May (.229/19/2/17/13), but Rojas played his way to the free-agent pool in fantasy baseball leagues.
28.1 Jose Quintana, NYM (Ranked 95th – -2.40)
In a non-trading format like the NFBC, there is something to be said for a starting pitcher who wins one-third of his starts. Quintana was a liability in strikeouts (135 over 170.1 innings), but he won 10 of his 31 starts (32.2%) with a reasonable ERA (3.75) and WHIP (1.25).
29.15 Erick Fedde, CWS (Ranked 58th – -0.33)
Fedde came into last season with a 21-33 record in the majors with a 5.41 ERA, 1.523 WHIP, and 352 strikeouts over 454.1 innings). Based on these stats, he appeared to be an easy avoid for drafters. Fedde gained momentum in March after a great year pitching Korea in 2023 (20-6 with a 2.00 ERA, 0.954 WHIP, and 209 strikeouts over 180.1 innings). Olson took a flier on him, and Fedde rewarded his dart with a career year (9-9 with a 3.30 ERA, 1,162 WHIP, and 154 strikeouts over 177.1 innings).
30.1 Yan Gomes, CHC (Ranked 544th – 11.78)
The second catcher position wasn’t important for Olson in this draft. Gomes only had 91 at-bats the year with seven runs, two home runs, and seven RBIs. He’ll surf the free agent pool for viable options, with a goal of finding 50 runs, 15 home runs, and 50 RBIs from the position for all catcher swings.
A Walk to Remember
Before I work my way through Clark Olson’s winner main event season in 2024, I wanted to walk through some weekly checkpoints to help fantasy managers see the road to a championship better. When the gate opens for a fantasy baseball season in the high-stakes market with an overall championship, the goal is to have a balanced team that will compete to be in the top 20% of all 10 Roto categories.
In my Fantasy Baseball Basics Article (https://fantasyanalyst.substack.com/p/f ... basics-fcc), I lay out the season targets (12-team format – they are slightly lower for 15-team leagues) for the upcoming season based on what happened on the fantasy baseball field in this event in 2024. The next step is breaking down the data into weekly targets to help get a feel for the strengths and weaknesses of your team. Here’s a look at what it takes over 27 weeks (162 games divided by 6 per week ~ Note: there are two half weeks played during the year – opening weekend and the All-Star break).
Reviewing weekly targets helps to understand the long-season goals. At the same time, a fantasy manager must have a feel for his team’s potential to avoid kicking a struggling star player to the curb or putting too much faith in an overachieving player over the long haul. Knowing when to get on and off the bus of replacement-type players covering injuries or draft day weaknesses in their starting lineup is a challenge and an area in which some game managers excel.
His week-to-week stats and waiver pickups can be found in the entire article on my Substack page (https://fantasyanalyst.substack.com/p/2 ... nner-draft)