Who is most likely to regress?

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 5:28 am

Originally posted by poopy tooth:

Gekko - 1st round flop for 2008 has to be my favorite player - Vladimir Guerrero.

Back and arm injuries - even if they get ARod, Vladdy is too much of a 1st round risk IMHO. Go draft Vladi this cat hated Utley and Hanley Ramirez in 07-

[ November 06, 2007, 11:31 AM: Message edited by: Chest Rockwell ]

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 5:50 am

With an almost 4:1 K:BB ratio, and 1 K in every 4 AB's and someone who definitely produce eye-gawking #'s in 2007 I'd have to say:

Ryan Braun

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:04 am

It's the "could wind up being sent back to the minors" that's the kicker.

~Lance

[ November 06, 2007, 12:05 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:40 am

Chris Young, AZ...?

cribgusto · Post by **cribgusto** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:43 am

This feels oddly like Gekko Jeopardy...

Who is Delmon Young?

His BB/K ratio was almost the worst in baseball. He inexplicably hits far more grounders than fly balls. The Rays have plenty of OF candidates. He earns a low salary such that there wouldn't be inordinate pressure against having a high-cost figure in the minors.

[ November 06, 2007, 12:45 PM: Message edited by: cribgusto ]

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:44 am

Not 100% out of the question for Braun. With his lack of even decent defensive skills, and I use the term loosely. If he slumps badly at the plate and the Brewers regress and fall out of contention. He "could" find himself back at AAA. Not likely maybe, but not impossible either.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 7:07 am

braun

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 7:51 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

With an almost 4:1 K:BB ratio, and 1 K in every 4 AB's and someone who definitely produce eye-gawking #'s in 2007 I'd have to say:

Ryan Braun It's not Braun. Most of the folks on the panel felt that Braun could duplicate his power and speed numbers with a lesser batting average. He does have a bad K:BB rate, but that's not the most telling sign of an upcoming slump.

It will be interesting to see what the Brewers do with Braun defensively. Most folks agree that eventually he will have to move to the outfield, so why not just move him to left field now and move Billy Hall to third base. I don't think the Brewers are thinking that way, but it makes sense. If Braun moved to the outfield, it could be an adjustment defensively or it could be a relief for him. We'll see what happens.

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 8:03 am

I change my answer.

Jack Cust - 26 HR, 61 R, 82 RBI in 124 G

One of the highest K% in the league with one of the highest HR/F% in the league while somehow maintaining the lowest FB% of anyone with more than 21 HR.

Okay, that's my last guess.

cribgusto · Post by **cribgusto** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 8:06 am

With LaPorta on his way in 2009, the Brewers can't move Braun to left field. That's the only viable (and I use that term loosely) position for LaPorta as long as Prince Fielder is around.

With Braun at 3B and LaPorta in LF, all the Brewers need is Mickey Tettleton at catcher to make the defensive trifecta complete. Sigh.

It's not Braun. Most of the folks on the panel felt that Braun could duplicate his power and speed numbers with a lesser batting average. He does have a bad K:BB rate, but that's not the most telling sign of an upcoming slump.

It will be interesting to see what the Brewers do with Braun defensively. Most folks agree that eventually he will have to move to the outfield, so why not just move him to left field now and move Billy Hall to third base. I don't think the Brewers are thinking that way, but it makes sense. If Braun moved to the outfield, it could be an adjustment defensively or it could be a relief for him. We'll see what happens.

[ November 06, 2007, 02:06 PM: Message edited by: cribgusto ]

cribgusto · Post by **cribgusto** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 8:09 am

If for some reason it isn't Delmon Young, it has to be Matt Kemp for similar reasons. Those are my final answers.

Auction King · Post by **Auction King** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 8:17 am

1. Bill Hall

2. Bill Hall

3. Bill Hall

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 8:28 am

The only caveat I see with Matt Kemp and Delmon Young is that, other then Kemp's stupid high BA, neither one of them really produced what could be considered "eye-gawking" numbers.

Not that Cust really produced "eye-gawking" numbers, either, but 26 HR and 82 RBI in 124 G is pretty good projected out over a full season.

Cust also had a .366 BABIP, which is very high, and even with that he could only produce a BA of .256.

According to Shandler's 2007 matrix Cust should produce, based on his K% alone, a BA of between .161 and .207. If his CT% improved from .58 to .65 and his BB% decreased to around .16 - down from .21 - then according to Shandler's matrix he should produce a BA of around .237.

To me, with those BA numbers, even with a .16-.21 BB% it'll be hard to keep him in the majors and that's not even including the proposed dip in HR/F%.

His BB/K was .64. Again, according to Shandler's matrix, 76% of the players who have a similar BB/K have a corresponding decrease in "PX" the following season.

To me, he looks like he could end up as a Wily Mo Pena type of player. He may not get sent to the minors, but he probably won't be a full timer.

[ November 06, 2007, 02:35 PM: Message edited by: EliGrimmett ]

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 8:32 am

Auction King - weren't Bill Hall's number awful this last season? Greg said the player's numbers were "eye-gawking" - hm...maybe he meant "eye-gawkingly BAD". If so, I can't argue with Bill Hall as a possible answer.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 8:41 am

Like I mentioned in an earlier thread...

Justin Morneau had some ugly numbers in 2005 and the final 2 months of 2007.

His overall numbers in 2007 could still be considered eye-buggingly nice...but a regression looks quite possible. Sent back to minors??? I don't think so...just a regression.

~Lance

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 8:44 am

I'll try.....Kelly Johnson.

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 8:48 am

Or possibly Marlon Byrd. Neither had truly "eye gawking" numbers, but both played above their head IMO.

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 8:49 am

Final two months aside, Morneau actually had a few better peripherals in 2007 then in 2006. His HR/F% decreased only slightly, his CT% improved, his BB% improved, his BB/K% improved. His BABIP decreased from .335 to .276, but that may level out and facilitate a slight increase in BA and with more hits comes more HR - as long as his rates stay the same.

Is your pessimism based solely on the final two months of 2007 or is there more than meets the eye to your reasoning?

Mr Dalrae · Post by **Mr Dalrae** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 8:49 am

Who is Rick Ankiel.

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 8:56 am

I reread your post and see you were also citing 2005 as part of your reasoning for your speculating a drop-off. Hm...

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 9:02 am

Keep 'em coming. We may be close....or even there.

I'll reveal tomorrow as I have a kid's band concert to go to soon.

[ November 06, 2007, 03:03 PM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 9:07 am

Eli, I think I like your first guess of Chris Young.

I wonder about Curtis Granderson. 141 K's is alot for a leadoff hitter. He can't hit left-hander's (.160 vs. LH). He certainly put up eye-gawking numbers, but I can't see him sent to the minors unless Shandler has big things in store for Cameron Maybin. However Curits' defense and speed (26/27 stolen bases) shouldn't slump. But maybe the Tigers decide they are better off with Polanco-Renteria as a 1-2? Granderson was also 0 for 13 in extra inning games.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 10:06 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

Eli, I think I like your first guess of Chris Young.

I wonder about Curtis Granderson. 141 K's is alot for a leadoff hitter. He can't hit left-hander's (.160 vs. LH). He certainly put up eye-gawking numbers, but I can't see him sent to the minors unless Shandler has big things in store for Cameron Maybin. However Curits' defense and speed (26/27 stolen bases) shouldn't slump. But maybe the Tigers decide they are better off with Polanco-Renteria as a 1-2? Granderson was also 0 for 13 in extra inning games. Agreed...

Looking over the players who rank highly in 2007...C. Young looked like an all or nothing batter. If the "all" decreases...you're left with nothing. That average was horrible.

...and they have some nice young talent and depth to push him out should he not produce the HR's.

~Lance

[ November 06, 2007, 04:06 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 11:29 am

My first thoughts were Jack Cust, he strikes out a ton , but then he walks alot.I will always love Cust because he helped me win the A.L Auction.It's always tough getting players off the waiver wire in auctions.BUT Carlos Pena might have been the greatest waiver wire pickup of all time.It cant be Pena , you cant get lucky 47 times.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Nov 06, 2007 11:32 am

Tough one. I'd say Cust but I don't know that he's guarenteed a job on opening day. Posada might collapse and certainly won't play to his 2007 level, but forget a trip to the minors. I don't know much about Delmon Young, but he seems a good choice based on the facts I've read on this thread.