Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
duke - what # is zambrano on your SP list? just curious. Don't have a list yet, but I expect improvement over last year and at this point I don't expect any downgrade for above-avg health risk. Guessing, easily top 10 and maybe top 5.
Early in '07 after a bad start the arm-slot injury theory was floating around, then Z went out and dominated for the next 2-3 months. Late in the season he has a few bad outings and the injury theory is back. So I wonder, did he heal mid-yr despite a heavy workload, 'cause he didn't take any time off?
I see it as he had an off 1/2 year in '07 - his previous 4 seasons avg'd 3.13-1.24, 15 W's, 195 K's, 32 starts. How many power pitchers have been this reliable? Let's not forget Peavy's '06 and '07 if you want a possible blueprint.
[ December 03, 2007, 10:38 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]
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Crazy Like a Fox
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Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
Who out there will get tricked into selecting Carlos Zambrano as their #1 starter in the 5th or 6th round? Hmmmmm... Speak up. You know you are out there.
Zambrano's 2007 #'s ...
18 wins
177 K's
3.95 era
1.33 whip
Truth be told, they were pretty good, but is that good enough to be taken in the 5th or 6th rounds (like is being done in the mock drafts)? I don't think so. From my #1 pitcher, I want to get value in all 4 pitching categories, not just two.
His era and whip are already teetering on the edge of robbing Zambrano of significant value. Wins can be fickle and his K's really declined last year. Will anyone be surprised if Zambrano misses significant time with a shoulder or elbow injury this year?
Here's a "Guess Who". Which pitcher has thrown the most pitches in MLB over the past three seasons? I think you raise many legitimate concerns regarding Zambrano. I think the hardest thing to understand is how he can be one of the best pitchers in baseball over a month's time and the very next month be one of the worst. Only his psychologist may know.
I for one would stay away from him as a #1 for the simple fact you don't take chances when building a strong base for your pitching staff. He has too many question marks. Especially when the Cubs have singlehandedly ruined 2 starting pitchers already (see Prior/Wood) I believe Zambrano is next.
Who out there will get tricked into selecting Carlos Zambrano as their #1 starter in the 5th or 6th round? Hmmmmm... Speak up. You know you are out there.
Zambrano's 2007 #'s ...
18 wins
177 K's
3.95 era
1.33 whip
Truth be told, they were pretty good, but is that good enough to be taken in the 5th or 6th rounds (like is being done in the mock drafts)? I don't think so. From my #1 pitcher, I want to get value in all 4 pitching categories, not just two.
His era and whip are already teetering on the edge of robbing Zambrano of significant value. Wins can be fickle and his K's really declined last year. Will anyone be surprised if Zambrano misses significant time with a shoulder or elbow injury this year?
Here's a "Guess Who". Which pitcher has thrown the most pitches in MLB over the past three seasons? I think you raise many legitimate concerns regarding Zambrano. I think the hardest thing to understand is how he can be one of the best pitchers in baseball over a month's time and the very next month be one of the worst. Only his psychologist may know.
I for one would stay away from him as a #1 for the simple fact you don't take chances when building a strong base for your pitching staff. He has too many question marks. Especially when the Cubs have singlehandedly ruined 2 starting pitchers already (see Prior/Wood) I believe Zambrano is next.
"Hit a home run - put your head down, drop the bat, run around the bases, because the name on the front is more - a lot more important than the name on the back."
Ryne Sandberg (my favorite player of all-time)
Ryne Sandberg (my favorite player of all-time)
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Edwards Kings
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Originally posted by KJ Duke:
quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:
A couple more things on Zambrano. He was a great road pitcher (12 Wins, 3.061 ERA and 1.186 WHIP). Cincinnati owned him at Wrigley (3GS, 8.817 ERA, 2.143 WHIP), while Zambrano owned the Reds in two out of three starts IN Cincinnati.
ATL pounded him as well in both starts against the Braves (one home, one road). All in all, Zambrano gave up 5 ER or more in nine starts. Five of those nine starts were against CIN and ATL. I think you can toss out all of those stats on Zambrano. Doesn't matter much where he's pitching. When he is on his game (mostly mental), he is almost untouchable. When his head is elsewhere he lacks control which leads to walks and extra base hits. He also seems to work much better with Blanco behind the plate; not sure if the stats support that, but I'd guess they do. [/QUOTE]I am not sure you can toss that out. It is unusual for a pitcher to more "on" mentally and more consistent on the road. Sure, some of the pitchers in the band boxes have better overall results when traveling to pitchers parks, but Zambrano's splits are too much (Home 17 GS, barely made it through the sixth on average, 53 to 80 BB to K ratio, six wins, 4.957 ERA, 1.495 WHIP).
At the very least, you may have to consider NOT starting Zambrono at home until he proves his "head" can handle Wrigley (i.e. I would not want my #1 pitcher to be able to be used only half the time). If it turns out 2007 was a home anomoly (and it could be), you win. If not, is he the right anchor for your team?
[ December 10, 2007, 09:28 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]
quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:
A couple more things on Zambrano. He was a great road pitcher (12 Wins, 3.061 ERA and 1.186 WHIP). Cincinnati owned him at Wrigley (3GS, 8.817 ERA, 2.143 WHIP), while Zambrano owned the Reds in two out of three starts IN Cincinnati.
ATL pounded him as well in both starts against the Braves (one home, one road). All in all, Zambrano gave up 5 ER or more in nine starts. Five of those nine starts were against CIN and ATL. I think you can toss out all of those stats on Zambrano. Doesn't matter much where he's pitching. When he is on his game (mostly mental), he is almost untouchable. When his head is elsewhere he lacks control which leads to walks and extra base hits. He also seems to work much better with Blanco behind the plate; not sure if the stats support that, but I'd guess they do. [/QUOTE]I am not sure you can toss that out. It is unusual for a pitcher to more "on" mentally and more consistent on the road. Sure, some of the pitchers in the band boxes have better overall results when traveling to pitchers parks, but Zambrano's splits are too much (Home 17 GS, barely made it through the sixth on average, 53 to 80 BB to K ratio, six wins, 4.957 ERA, 1.495 WHIP).
At the very least, you may have to consider NOT starting Zambrono at home until he proves his "head" can handle Wrigley (i.e. I would not want my #1 pitcher to be able to be used only half the time). If it turns out 2007 was a home anomoly (and it could be), you win. If not, is he the right anchor for your team?
[ December 10, 2007, 09:28 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer
Charles Krauthammer
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headhunters
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crazy- the cubs did not ruin wood- his pitching motion did. he refused to change it. steve stone pointed that out many times and got fired for it. what the cubs have done- with z and wood- is decide to live with their problems. maybe not the right thing to do.
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Originally posted by headhunters:
crazy- the cubs did not ruin wood- his pitching motion did. he refused to change it. steve stone pointed that out many times and got fired for it. what the cubs have done- with z and wood- is decide to live with their problems. maybe not the right thing to do. You could blame Wood's high school coach for pitching him in both starts of a double-header.
Let me get this straight, you think the Cubs have handled Wood, Prior and Zambrano in a perfect way in order to preserve their pitchers?
I don't think so. I'm sure Dusty Baker had some to do with it, although they sure don't look out for their pitcher's best interests.
crazy- the cubs did not ruin wood- his pitching motion did. he refused to change it. steve stone pointed that out many times and got fired for it. what the cubs have done- with z and wood- is decide to live with their problems. maybe not the right thing to do. You could blame Wood's high school coach for pitching him in both starts of a double-header.
Let me get this straight, you think the Cubs have handled Wood, Prior and Zambrano in a perfect way in order to preserve their pitchers?
I don't think so. I'm sure Dusty Baker had some to do with it, although they sure don't look out for their pitcher's best interests.
"Hit a home run - put your head down, drop the bat, run around the bases, because the name on the front is more - a lot more important than the name on the back."
Ryne Sandberg (my favorite player of all-time)
Ryne Sandberg (my favorite player of all-time)
Gekko Round 5-6 BUST
The way he handled pitchers is actually 1 of the only things I liked about Dusty. I would however fire Rothchild in a heartbeat. While Wood came with problems, I think Rothchild and his throwing towels exercise ruined Prior. Nobody likes it except Rothchild and despite criticism from the likes of Fergie Jenkins and others it continues. And where else but Chicago can a broadcaster get canned for telling the truth. Stone was and is the best there is out there imho. he has remarkble overall baseball knowledge for a former pitcher. Pitchers are supposed to be dumb and not real players. Stone would certainly be an exception. He was not allowed to shine on espn. They really clamped down on him. As others have posted about espn broadcasts, everything must be bright and sunny. No criticism whatsoever. Heap on the platitudes deserved or not. Though I do really enjoy John Miller. I think for a play by play guy he really knows the game although lets Joe Morgan take all credit. I do give Morgan credit for really knowing the game also, although I also know he is not universally loved.
Gekko Round 5-6 BUST
Totally agree with everything said, Vander. Steve Stone is hands down the best analyst out there. Radio broadcasters have become such homers, largely due to MLB having final say on broadcasters, that a lot of enjoyment is taken away from the game due to their skewed perspective. ESPN doesen't want their contract with MLB to be waylayed by a disparaging remark so instead of a constant diet of insight and Candor from Stone, we get the gushing, put every player on a pedestal sounds of Rick Sutcliffe. The guy is a joke and NEVER has anything new to offer. His favorite line is, "Yes, his ERA is over nine, but he's a better pitcher than that." Thanks Rick.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
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Red Sox Nation
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Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:
Totally agree with everything said, Vander. Steve Stone is hands down the best analyst out there. Radio broadcasters have become such homers, largely due to MLB having final say on broadcasters, that a lot of enjoyment is taken away from the game due to their skewed perspective. ESPN doesen't want their contract with MLB to be waylayed by a disparaging remark so instead of a constant diet of insight and Candor from Stone, we get the gushing, put every player on a pedestal sounds of Rick Sutcliffe. The guy is a joke and NEVER has anything new to offer. His favorite line is, "Yes, his ERA is over nine, but he's a better pitcher than that." Thanks Rick. Jerry Remy is the best analyst!!!
Totally agree with everything said, Vander. Steve Stone is hands down the best analyst out there. Radio broadcasters have become such homers, largely due to MLB having final say on broadcasters, that a lot of enjoyment is taken away from the game due to their skewed perspective. ESPN doesen't want their contract with MLB to be waylayed by a disparaging remark so instead of a constant diet of insight and Candor from Stone, we get the gushing, put every player on a pedestal sounds of Rick Sutcliffe. The guy is a joke and NEVER has anything new to offer. His favorite line is, "Yes, his ERA is over nine, but he's a better pitcher than that." Thanks Rick. Jerry Remy is the best analyst!!!
2004 NYY "The Greatest Choke in the History of Sports"
Gekko Round 5-6 BUST
REM-DAWG!!!!!
A hot dog at the ballgame beats roast beef at the Ritz. ~Humphrey Bogart
Gekko Round 5-6 BUST
Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
Who out there will get tricked into selecting Carlos Zambrano as their #1 starter in the 5th or 6th round? Hmmmmm... Speak up. You know you are out there.
Zambrano's 2007 #'s ...
18 wins
177 K's
3.95 era
1.33 whip
Truth be told, they were pretty good, but is that good enough to be taken in the 5th or 6th rounds (like is being done in the mock drafts)? I don't think so. From my #1 pitcher, I want to get value in all 4 pitching categories, not just two.
His era and whip are already teetering on the edge of robbing Zambrano of significant value. Wins can be fickle and his K's really declined last year. Will anyone be surprised if Zambrano misses significant time with a shoulder or elbow injury this year?
Here's a "Guess Who". Which pitcher has thrown the most pitches in MLB over the past three seasons? Zambrano through 4 innings against a powerhouse Milwaukee lineup:
4 K's
0 BB
1 Hit (a weak, misplayed infield single by Tony Gwynn)
Should be a no-hitter! Z
Who out there will get tricked into selecting Carlos Zambrano as their #1 starter in the 5th or 6th round? Hmmmmm... Speak up. You know you are out there.
Zambrano's 2007 #'s ...
18 wins
177 K's
3.95 era
1.33 whip
Truth be told, they were pretty good, but is that good enough to be taken in the 5th or 6th rounds (like is being done in the mock drafts)? I don't think so. From my #1 pitcher, I want to get value in all 4 pitching categories, not just two.
His era and whip are already teetering on the edge of robbing Zambrano of significant value. Wins can be fickle and his K's really declined last year. Will anyone be surprised if Zambrano misses significant time with a shoulder or elbow injury this year?
Here's a "Guess Who". Which pitcher has thrown the most pitches in MLB over the past three seasons? Zambrano through 4 innings against a powerhouse Milwaukee lineup:
4 K's
0 BB
1 Hit (a weak, misplayed infield single by Tony Gwynn)
Should be a no-hitter! Z
Gekko Round 5-6 BUST
Originally posted by KJ Duke:
quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
duke - what # is zambrano on your SP list? just curious. Don't have a list yet, but I expect improvement over last year and at this point I don't expect any downgrade for above-avg health risk. Guessing, easily top 10 and maybe top 5.
Early in '07 after a bad start the arm-slot injury theory was floating around, then Z went out and dominated for the next 2-3 months. Late in the season he has a few bad outings and the injury theory is back. So I wonder, did he heal mid-yr despite a heavy workload, 'cause he didn't take any time off?
I see it as he had an off 1/2 year in '07 - his previous 4 seasons avg'd 3.13-1.24, 15 W's, 195 K's, 32 starts. How many power pitchers have been this reliable? Let's not forget Peavy's '06 and '07 if you want a possible blueprint. [/QUOTE]Today, looks like he should be #1. Now 5 IP, 1 hit allowed.
[ March 31, 2008, 03:57 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]
quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
duke - what # is zambrano on your SP list? just curious. Don't have a list yet, but I expect improvement over last year and at this point I don't expect any downgrade for above-avg health risk. Guessing, easily top 10 and maybe top 5.
Early in '07 after a bad start the arm-slot injury theory was floating around, then Z went out and dominated for the next 2-3 months. Late in the season he has a few bad outings and the injury theory is back. So I wonder, did he heal mid-yr despite a heavy workload, 'cause he didn't take any time off?
I see it as he had an off 1/2 year in '07 - his previous 4 seasons avg'd 3.13-1.24, 15 W's, 195 K's, 32 starts. How many power pitchers have been this reliable? Let's not forget Peavy's '06 and '07 if you want a possible blueprint. [/QUOTE]Today, looks like he should be #1. Now 5 IP, 1 hit allowed.
[ March 31, 2008, 03:57 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]
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Gordon Gekko
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If u drafted him as a #1, he better perform as a #1.
Don't worry, the season is young and zambrano won't have the weather helping him out every game.
Don't worry, the season is young and zambrano won't have the weather helping him out every game.
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Uh Oh Zambrano just left game INJURED! Something with his finger. Injured himself on a pick-off throw
Gekko Round 5-6 BUST
Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
If u drafted him as a #1, he better perform as a #1.
Don't worry, the season is young and zambrano won't have the weather helping him out every game. 7th round, I'll have three #1's if Pedro gets back to form, and four when Joba moves into the rotation. Weather won't matter much if no one can make decent contact like today.
[ March 31, 2008, 05:19 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]
If u drafted him as a #1, he better perform as a #1.
Don't worry, the season is young and zambrano won't have the weather helping him out every game. 7th round, I'll have three #1's if Pedro gets back to form, and four when Joba moves into the rotation. Weather won't matter much if no one can make decent contact like today.
[ March 31, 2008, 05:19 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]
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Gordon Gekko
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Originally posted by KJ Duke:
quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
If u drafted him as a #1, he better perform as a #1.
Don't worry, the season is young and zambrano won't have the weather helping him out every game. 7th round, I'll have three #1's if Pedro gets back to form, and four when Joba moves into the rotation. Weather won't matter much if no one can make decent contact like today. [/QUOTE]Many owners suffer from "wishful thinking". You are no different.
Zman's forearm is shot (due to excessive # of pitches through career)
Pedro is a good bet to post some nice numbers
Joba won't put up #1 SP stats. Not sure who your 4th #1 is, but it's likely "wishful" thinking? If I had to guess...it's probably another excessive inning youngster, like sabbathia.
quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
If u drafted him as a #1, he better perform as a #1.
Don't worry, the season is young and zambrano won't have the weather helping him out every game. 7th round, I'll have three #1's if Pedro gets back to form, and four when Joba moves into the rotation. Weather won't matter much if no one can make decent contact like today. [/QUOTE]Many owners suffer from "wishful thinking". You are no different.
Zman's forearm is shot (due to excessive # of pitches through career)
Pedro is a good bet to post some nice numbers
Joba won't put up #1 SP stats. Not sure who your 4th #1 is, but it's likely "wishful" thinking? If I had to guess...it's probably another excessive inning youngster, like sabbathia.
Gekko Round 5-6 BUST
His forearm was perfect until D Lee undercut him and knocked him to the ground, after which it probably cramped up in the cold weather.
How exactly can a forearm be "shot" anyway?
How exactly can a forearm be "shot" anyway?
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headhunters
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the wind was blowing out at 30 miles per hour. it wasn't cold. that was a very very hitter friendly ballpark yesterday. sheets and z looked great. best quote by fuko- "much harder to hit one out in japan, this is a real bandbox."
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Gordon Gekko
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Originally posted by headhunters:
the wind was blowing out at 30 miles per hour. it wasn't cold. that was a very very hitter friendly ballpark yesterday. sheets and z looked great. best quote by fuko- "much harder to hit one out in japan, this is a real bandbox." i guess the rain also helps hitters :rolleyes:
the wind was blowing out at 30 miles per hour. it wasn't cold. that was a very very hitter friendly ballpark yesterday. sheets and z looked great. best quote by fuko- "much harder to hit one out in japan, this is a real bandbox." i guess the rain also helps hitters :rolleyes:
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headhunters
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didn't rain all that much either- and if anything that hurts pitchers also. sorry gordo- back to the drawing board. a hitters park all the way around yesterday. second quote by fuko: " i know a lot of great fantasy players love d lee- but if you can't hit 35 in this park- well the power may be gone. what a bandbox"