Will Gekko go Santana_in_the_1st?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 4:29 am

Everyone knows that I selected J.Santana last year with the 5th pick overall.

If I get a late first round pick this year, Santana is a given (if he's still on the board).

But I need some help with determining if I should take him with a mid-round pick. Suppose I get 7 or 8 this year. Would you take him? Please give reasons. I'm really struggling with this one.

bluenose · Post by **bluenose** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 4:48 am

IMO depends where he ends up. No true pitchers' parks in the runing currently but suppose, just for a minute, he ended up in San Diego etc. Leaving Minnesota would instantly help his ERA...

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 4:50 am

for discussion purposes suppose santana is either with the twins or red sox come March 08

Red Sox Nation · Post by **Red Sox Nation** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 5:18 am

His win total would increase on BOS/NYY to make him worthy of mid first round

viper · Post by **viper** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 5:21 am

for what it's worth, in a satellite league last year, I drafted Santana with the 8 pick.

My hitting was down about as much as you would expect by taking a pitcher with a first round pick and a hitter with a sixth round pick rather than the other way around. In my draft plan I essentially swapped 1st and 6th round picks. Aside from this swap of picks, I draft all league with the identical plan so I backed up Santana by drafting pitchers in essentially similar rounds.

My pitching was not helped as much by drafting Santana as I hoped. The net effect in hitting and pitching was a loss.

My conclusion was that you can work pitching to make up for the lesser production of not having Santana than the loss of a first round hitter. You cannot really work hitting.

Under the assumption that Santana would not be available in round two [or after about the 12th pick in any NFBC league], I concluded that drafting Santana in the first round.

[ December 16, 2007, 11:30 AM: Message edited by: viper ]

la Jolla · Post by **la Jolla** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 5:24 am

I'd say no if he gets traded...the spotlight of playing in a big market, the new contract extension he'd have in place, the run support he'd have would help his win totals but he would be pitching a different game leading 5-0 after 3 innings rather than 1-0 after 6 in Minn.....Conversly, if he stays in Minn., I'd say yes because he would be pitching half the season for the new contract and come into a pennant race with the new team.....where are you leaning?

bluenose · Post by **bluenose** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 5:25 am

Here are 12 guys I'd take ahead of him:

Howard, Fielder

Utley, Phillips

Ramirez, Reyes, Rollins

A-Rod, Wright, M. Cabrera

A. Soriano, Crawford

and while I guess Santana is clearly ahead of Peavy, if I was picking 11th, say, and felt the need for SP early, I'd rather take Peavy at 20 than Santana at 11.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 5:29 am

Originally posted by bluenose:

Here are 12 guys I'd take ahead of him:

Howard, Fielder

Utley, Phillips

Ramirez, Reyes, Rollins

A-Rod, Wright, M. Cabrera

A. Soriano, Crawford

and while I guess Santana is clearly ahead of Peavy, if I was picking 11th, say, and felt the need for SP early, I'd rather take Peavy at 20 than Santana at 11. Hmm, no Pujols or Holliday?

bluenose · Post by **bluenose** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 5:37 am

Pujols, Holliday, Santana, Beltran, Ichiro, and I'm somewhat embarrased to say Berkman are the next clump on my board. Any one could be 13th, any one 18th...

it isn't even January yet, so, hey...

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 5:49 am

Originally posted by bluenose:

Pujols, Holliday, Santana, Beltran, Ichiro, and I'm somewhat embarrased to say Berkman are the next clump on my board. Any one could be 13th, any one 18th...

it isn't even January yet, so, hey... I wouldn't be embarrased to say Berkman. He'll have Tejada in front of him with Lee and Pence in back, he'll rack up some numbers.

ALL-IN JD · Post by **ALL-IN JD** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 6:01 am

More importantly why give Mark anymore of an edge by telling him your thoughts on Santana?? Do you think he is trying to drum up some innocent conversation?? LOL :--))

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 6:44 am

Jeff - just trying to get some opinions. It is only december. A lot can change with santana depending on which team he is on come march. Would u take santana in the first five picks if he is on the sox or yanks come march?

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 7:56 am

I wouldnt think of taking him till the end of the 1st round.His era was to high at 3.33 and he gave up a lot homers [most ever i think]I agree with Bluenose taking Peavy later in the 2nd round[pitches park]would be a better way to go .

I would also take Holiday before Santana and would have Holiday in my to 12.

ALL-IN JD · Post by **ALL-IN JD** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 8:05 am

Not my philosophy Mark. I dont start thinking pitcher until round 4 or 5 (for better or worse). Im a gambler by nature. Paid off last year when I drafted Hamels (7th), Bedard (9th), Snell (10th) and Escobar (12th). That being said im up the creek without a paddle if the pitchers I do draft dont pan out since im probably passing on the best ones. I also believe pitching is easier to fix via FAAB then offense such as BA and SB's.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 9:39 am

Originally posted by fireballs:

Im a gambler by nature. Paid off last year when I drafted Hamels (7th), Bedard (9th), Snell (10th) and Escobar (12th). That being said im up the creek without a paddle if the pitchers I do draft dont pan out since im probably passing on the best ones. all those guys paid off last year. what's the chances you go 4-4 this year, with one of them being a stud (bedard)?

freddiezee · Post by **freddiezee** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 9:42 am

I think that on Minny I would wait until late of the first round and you could get him and maybe the hitter you wanted at, for example, pick 14 at pick 17 anyways. If he goes to Boston, I would start to consider him in the middle of the first round, as the chances of winning 20+ go up. Also, that would get him away from Cleveland a bit. I owned Santana last year and Cleveland really did a number on him.

I do think you can build a good offense with him, if you don't make mistakes on the hitters you go for in rounds 2,3,4.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 9:45 am

Originally posted by Red Sox Nation:

His win total would increase on BOS/NYY to make him worthy of mid first round i would think top 5 for sure.

btw, a LOT of people are ranking hanley up at the top this year. he's certainly a talent, but off season shoulder surgery and the loss of miggy causes some concern (at least in my mind). spring training will be key for me, as hanley has to demonstrate being healthy before i use a top 5 pick on him. i also have to see what that crappy marlins lineup looks like too. santana (if he's with the sox or yanks) is the safer play IMO. remember, you can't win your league in the first round, but you can lose it.

ALL-IN JD · Post by **ALL-IN JD** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 10:40 am

Chances of going 4-4 again are pretty damn slim since its the first time in 4 years that it worked!! That being said ill let someone take Santana in the first round. If they can manage the draft as well as you did I will just tip my hat and say congrats. I would be curious that besides you how many league winners drafted Johan in the first.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 10:45 am

Originally posted by fireballs:

Chances of going 4-4 again are pretty damn slim since its the first time in 4 years that it worked!! That being said ill let someone take Santana in the first round. If they can manage the draft as well as you did I will just tip my hat and say congrats. I would be curious that besides you how many league winners drafted Johan in the first. the guy who came in 2nd place overall had santana last year

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 10:58 am

there doesn't seem to be as large a gap between santana and the field. other SP's are putting up pretty good numbers, and santana's numbers have gone up the last couple years. i think a good strategy is to pass on him in the first round, and let somebody else take the chance with the shoulder issues.

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 2:21 pm

wow.. I'm surprised so many people consider him a top 10 pick... I wouldn't take him in the first round period UNLESS he was traded to the Red Sox.. and even then, only as a 14-15 pick.. MAYBE. Too many great hitters around at that point..

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 2:21 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

btw, a LOT of people are ranking hanley up at the top this year. he's certainly a talent, but off season shoulder surgery and the loss of miggy causes some concern (at least in my mind). spring training will be key for me, as hanley has to demonstrate being healthy before i use a top 5 pick on him. i also have to see what that crappy marlins lineup looks like too. Gekko, the Marlins lineup is certain to be crappy, no need to wait 'til March to find out. That likely knocks Hanley out of his #2 position.

Santana would be no higher than a mid-late second round pick for me.

[ December 16, 2007, 10:18 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 2:23 pm

ya, the guy who got 2nd overall was in my league

The reason he got 2nd overall was that he picked up Braun AND Fausto in the first few weeks... that's like having an extra 2 first rounders.. insane.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 2:38 pm

Originally posted by Less than Dave:

ya, the guy who got 2nd overall was in my league

The reason he got 2nd overall was that he picked up Braun AND Fausto in the first few weeks... that's like having an extra 2 first rounders.. insane. tell us about your brilliant league - everyone had a shot a Carmona - in leagues where he wasn't drafted and since Braun started the year in the minors, the only way he could have picked him up in the first few weeks was if the person who drafted him dropped him back into the FA pool in your league.

[ December 16, 2007, 08:45 PM: Message edited by: Captain Hook ]

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Sun Dec 16, 2007 4:13 pm

chicago league 3- second place finisher and second most points of any league. no matter how you slice it- a tuff league.