Will Gekko go Santana_in_the_1st?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 3:32 pm

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

To answer your 95% question IMO the answer you have to at least get pick 9. Barring any spring injuries I think the first 8 guys will be the same in 80% of all leagues. wow! see this thread is giving me valuable info. i would have thought i needed to list 6 or 7 as my first preference.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 3:33 pm

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

I may go Santana or Braun tomorrow night at 12 b/c of the winner take all format makes me take a few more risks. Plus you have to be a little lucky to beat that field.

ummm...in case you didn't notice, winning the 100K requires both of the things u mentioned.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 3:35 pm

Originally posted by Less than Dave:

I'd say 6-7.. although that could change with a trade to a contender there's the 6/7. much like i thought

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 3:53 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

I may go Santana or Braun tomorrow night at 12 b/c of the winner take all format makes me take a few more risks. Plus you have to be a little lucky to beat that field.

ummm...in case you didn't notice, winning the 100K requires both of the things u mentioned. [/QUOTE]Thanks for teaching me that wise one, or choice b I agree but don't like my risks in round one especially when there are guys I like a lot in all 3 tiers of round one.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 3:57 pm

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

Thanks for teaching me that wise one, or choice b I agree but don't like my risks in round one especially when there are guys I like a lot in all 3 tiers of round one. i can't list one thing risky about santana. maybe that's just me.

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 4:32 pm

what's one risky thing about AROD.. or David Wright? Or do you mean that 3B is deeper than SP?

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 4:36 pm

I like how Chest said the top 8 would be the same in about 80% of leagues.. with 95% certainty.. lol

Plymouth · Post by **Plymouth** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 5:25 pm

A couple of comments, first for Gordon, I agree you had a few "stinky" picks as you mentioned earlier in this thread and the bottom of your draft wasn't great either. But having said that, I think you won your league because you ended up with Phillips at 11 and Martin in 12,those turned out to be key picks and in my opinion took you a long ways towards your title. You went with a lot of youth and many of them came through for you. I think it is hard to go with that many young players and be successful but you certainly did a great job and the results speak for themselves.

As for Santana, I agree that he is the premier pitcher in baseball but a couple of things happened with Johan last year and I am really curious how he bounces back this year. First off, he gave up a lot more home runs then normal and the pitching coach here felt that Johan had fallen in love with his change-up just a bit too much. On the other hand maybe it was bad luck as many HOF pitchers have given up a lot of home runs. On the plus side, because of his low WHIP, a lot of those home runs were solo's. Item 2 may have been his mental attitude, if you remember, the Twins traded Luis Castillo around the All-Star game and Johan was really bent out of shape about that because the Twins not only did not get any help for a run but instead they traded away his good friend Castillo. The third and most interesting point about Santana last year as compared to Santana in previous seasons was his pitch counts, last year his pitch counts were frequently high very early in games (almost always caused by one early bad inning) and he found himself getting taken out of games early due to the Twins strict pitch count rules. Why the high pitch counts? No one was able to figure it out this past season.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Mon Dec 17, 2007 9:58 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

Thanks for teaching me that wise one, or choice b I agree but don't like my risks in round one especially when there are guys I like a lot in all 3 tiers of round one. i can't list one thing risky about santana. maybe that's just me. [/QUOTE]Johan could be the Sandy Koufax of this generation. Imagine 40 years ago (if they had fantasy baseball back then) people saying they thought Koufax was going to regress a bit.

Johan is a special talent. He's the best in baseball....by far. He is incredibly consistent, dominant and reliable. I laugh when people mention his homers allowed last year. I agree with Gekko 100%, when those homers allowed come back down, you'll see that e.r.a. plunge into the mid 2's. Well worth any pick in the 1st round and I wouldn't argue with somebody who picked him #1 or #2 overall (although unlikely). He is that good.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Dec 18, 2007 12:34 am

There are two things that separate Santana from the rest of the top tier pitchers. High K per IP and reliability. There are maybe half-dozen pitchers with the same high K per IP (in excess of 100%) among the SP, but none hit his reliability. One or two will not approach is WHIP either. Therefore, in any given season, Santanta will be in the top three or four SP in a season. Bank on it. The others in the top three or four will generally be a changing cast of characters, though Peavy is getting close to being a constant.

Santana will help you in four categories and three of them BIG. Is he worth a first round slot. Yes. There aren't that many consistent offensive players that will help you in four categories (really big in three) consistently year after year, so there is certainly room for one pitcher, maybe two. Would I take him in the first? Yes, if he fell to twelve or thirteen. I think, however, he will go 9/10 in most drafts. Assuming 26 leagues, I predict he will go higher than nine in 6 and after 10 in 4 of them. After the trade, I might have to amend my predictions.

[ December 18, 2007, 06:35 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

viper · Post by **viper** » Tue Dec 18, 2007 2:26 am

Santana is a safe bet. He is one of very few players you can count on to have 1st round value.

However, I feel the question really is:

"Will the value Santana provides in the pitching categories outweigh the value lost by not having a first round offensive stud?"

Based on my one and only season of drafting Santana in the first round, my conclusion is that you don't take Santana. If you take Santana, you need to have a near perfect offensive player draft to make up for the loss of the first rounder. You can still have a very solid pitching staff without Santana - or any pitcher in the first 4-5 rounds for that matter.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Dec 18, 2007 4:50 am

Hmmmm, looking at MockDraftCentral's ADP for NFBC drafts thus far, Santana is going 19th and Jake Peavy is going 21st. The next highest ranked pitcher is Erik Bedard at 43rd. It will be interesting to see if any of our NFBC Champions take Santana in the first round tonight.

Tomorrow for our KP Experts League Draft -- a 12-team, 23-round draft with 12 industry writers -- Tom has the third pick and I have the 11th pick. I sure don't mind the end pick in the first two rounds as the pickings look scrumptious, the the 3-4 turn again looks tricky. I better make good choices there this year.

We'll post those results as well this week.

Richie · Post by **Richie** » Tue Dec 18, 2007 2:33 pm

You cant go by mock drafts as yet because when u look at them, a huge majority of the picks are computer generated. therefore, u r not getting much real player input. ust the same computer prioritization. comments please

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 10:25 am

I BET HE WILL NOW!

Red Sox Nation · Post by **Red Sox Nation** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 10:32 am

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

I BET HE WILL NOW!

I agree. Maybe even Mid 1st. NL lineups - pitchers ballpark.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 11:21 am

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

I BET HE WILL NOW!

YA BOY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! shak'n up the first round with less than 2 months to go!! i luv it!!! time to change KDS (for the 40th time already)!!

freddiezee · Post by **freddiezee** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 11:32 am

Assuming Bedard gets traded somewhere soon, have we ever had a year where arguably two of the top three starting pitchers are traded within a month of spring training? It creates even more uncertainty at an already uncertain position.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 11:35 am

Originally posted by Red Sox Nation:

quote:Originally posted by Captain Hook:

I BET HE WILL NOW!

I agree. Maybe even Mid 1st. NL lineups - pitchers ballpark. [/QUOTE]1. doesn't face DH anymore. K's go up, era and whip both go down

2. now playing in a pitchers ballpark. era/whip go down

3. team actually has a good offense. wins go up.

folks, we could be on the verge of a "tom brady" type season. WOW!

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 1:38 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Red Sox Nation:

quote:Originally posted by Captain Hook:

I BET HE WILL NOW!

I agree. Maybe even Mid 1st. NL lineups - pitchers ballpark. [/QUOTE]1. doesn't face DH anymore. K's go up, era and whip both go down

2. now playing in a pitchers ballpark. era/whip go down

3. team actually has a good offense. wins go up.

folks, we could be on the verge of a "tom brady" type season. WOW!

[/QUOTE]Until he strains a groin running the bases or yanks his ribcage swinging a bat. yowza

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 1:42 pm

Originally posted by Quahogs:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

folks, we could be on the verge of a "tom brady" type season. WOW!

Until he strains a groin running the bases or yanks his ribcage swinging a bat. yowza

[/QUOTE]Yep. Santana will soon be wearing a walking boot and having children out of wedlock, though not necessarily at the same time.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 3:00 pm

Originally posted by Quahogs:

Until he strains a groin running the bases or yanks his ribcage swinging a bat. yowza

i'll say it now...santana is a top 5 pick in 08. if you happen to be sitting at 15 and he somehow makes it to you, let me know how it feels to get the biggest christmas present since my folks bought me that Axis and Allies boardgame ~20 years ago.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 3:21 pm

The Minnesota Twins and Oakland A's are such freaking cheapskates.

They dish off top tier talent for prospects.

They never seems to get a big star in return whenever they trade one of theirs.

Sure...hey can develop talent for the rest of MLB...but if i wanted to watch upper minor league baseball...I'd go to a Minor League Baseball game.

It's a joke.

Sure...they make the playoffs every once in a while...but they don't win much once they get there.

When they kept their studs like back when they WON World Series Championships...they had something worth watching.

The 1972, 1973, and 1974 A's were stacked! The 1989 A's also...with guys like Ricky, Canseco, McGwire, Stewart, Ek...back when they kept and paid their players.

The 1987 and 1991 Twins at least had Kirby Puckett...the face of the franchise...to pull in the fans.

What the hell do the Twins and A's have now, that they keep around for a while as the face of the franchise...dumping Tori and Johan and Swisher and Haren...and getting WHAT in return? :rolleyes:

Freaking Developmental Cheapskates.

~Lance

Plymouth · Post by **Plymouth** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 5:31 pm

Lance, I am the first to say that Minnesota did not get fair return for Santana. I think it stinks that the Twins and Oakland can't keep their stars. Sure the Twins and A's (and many other teams can be plugged in here) can't compete with the Yankees and Red Sox year in and year out. But you need to get your facts straight, you say they dish off their stars for prospects and they do, but let's take a look at the Twins and A's records as compared to that Mets team that Santana is going to. The A's and Twins have been very competitive in the grand scheme of things.

In the last 10 years the A's have won 901 games, the Mets have won 841 games and the Twins have won 821 games.

Since 1990 the A's have won 1,513 games, the Mets 1,423, and the Twins have won 1,406.

If you go all the way back to 1962 when the Mets came into existence and you compare the three teams, you have the A's winning 3,721 games, the Twins winning 3,670, and the Mets have won 3,496 times. Looks to me like these "poor" teams have managed to stay more them competitive.

We should not be too quick to judge these star for prospect deals, if you look back over the history of some of these deals you will see that the teams that got the prospects did OK for the most part.

I agree that Pohlad is one of the richest owners in baseball and I would love to see him spend more money but you have to play the cards you are dealt. Sure I loved to see Santana pitch at the Dome for the Twins but you also have to look at how the game is run today and you have to come up with a way to keep your team competitive. Their is more then one way to skin a cat.

I wish the best for Santana, I really do, but I can see him going down hill over the next few years. The Twins protect the snot out of their pitchers with pitch counts, numbers of starts, etc., sometimes too much, but Johan is not a big stud of a guy and if the Mets over use him, they will burn him out in no time.

All this being said, you are upset with the wrong people here Lance, it is MLB and the greedy owners who are to blame for this mess we find ourselves in.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 5:44 pm

To me...a win is just a little bit more fun to see than a loss in person or on TV...geez...they play freaking 162 times a year...so a win or loss really doesn't matter much.

A long winning or losing streak gets the blood flowing either way...but 2 or 3 games are just too insignificant. That's why Football will continue to dominate Baseball...the games really mean something.

I don't care to watch Tejada, Giambi, and any other face of the A's stick around until they are a hot commodity or they are at the time in their career to get paid justly...only to be shipped away.

Just look at the crowds during a Red Sox or Yankees game...the big market big payroll teams are WAY more interesting, and have great rivalries.

Look at the small crowds of an A's or Twins game...the TV producers have to really plan ahead to keep the heavier crowd shots on camera...as to not look like a minor league game.

Look at the A's division...Texas! Seattle! Those teams have been hurting for a while.

At least the Devil Rays and Diamondbacks seem to keep pumping out great young fantasy players.

Just imagine if there was no fantasy baseball...who the heck would want to watch what the A's are trotting out on the field this year.

~Lance

[ January 29, 2008, 11:49 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 10:43 am

just an fyi - i've updated my projections for santana getting traded to the mets, and based on projections, he is the #1 player on my board. yes, ahead of arod.