Will Gekko go Santana_in_the_1st?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 10:52 am

what is the latest pick in the first round that i am 99% assured of getting santana? any thoughts? i need to update my KDS. thanks.

ALL-IN JD · Post by **ALL-IN JD** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 10:54 am

Mark, there is no doubt that depending on what league you are in you could still get him early second. There are so many owners, like myself, that will not draft a pitcher in the first round no matter who they are. Obviously anything past 11-12 will be a gamble at that point, in my humble opinion.

billywaz · Post by **billywaz** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 10:55 am

You might have to have a #1 if people are buying into your projections.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 11:04 am

Originally posted by fireballs:

Mark, there is no doubt that depending on what league you are in you could still get him early second. There are so many owners, like myself, that will not draft a pitcher in the first round no matter who they are. Obviously anything past 11-12 will be a gamble at that point, in my humble opinion. would i be good to go with the 7 pick?

ALL-IN JD · Post by **ALL-IN JD** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 11:07 am

I would absolutely think so. Then again its always possible to get stuck in the one league with an unconventional owner who wants to do something different and take Santana first or second.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 11:07 am

Originally posted by billywaz:

You might have to have a #1 if people are buying into your projections.

you're right. maybe i shouldn't have put that post up

[ January 30, 2008, 05:07 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

Hard Heads · Post by **Hard Heads** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 11:25 am

Greg and TK, please give GG the #1 pick so we can watch him take Johan!

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 11:32 am

Originally posted by Hard Heads:

Greg and TK, please give GG the #1 pick so we can watch him take Johan! If I get the first pick, it will be the first time EVER in 5 YEARS of playing in the nffc and 4 YEARS of playing in the nffc that I received the #1 pick.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 11:36 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Hard Heads:

Greg and TK, please give GG the #1 pick so we can watch him take Johan! If I get the first pick, it will be the first time EVER in 5 YEARS of playing in the nffc and 4 YEARS of playing in the nffc that I received the #1 pick. [/QUOTE]If this is still true after 14 or 15 years...you'll have a real gripe.

~Lance

Hard Heads · Post by **Hard Heads** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 11:43 am

I feel ya GG! While I did get the #1 3 years ago in the WCOFF I am a regular at picks 9-15! In my local league where we draw a card from a stack I got the #9 the first 3 years and then this year got #12, while we have had picks 10,11 and 12 in the mains of the big leagues. So it's either 1 or end of round 1 for us. I can't to see what my first serpentine draft has in store. The only other serpentine draft I have done was 3 years ago and we got pick #5 and thanks to some very oddball picks, including Ichiro at #1?!?! we got Albert at 5. Oh the memories....LOL

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 12:32 pm

Mark, I don't even know if you would be guaranteed to get Santana at 7 BEFORE the trade... I'd say you could have in 90% of leagues, but.. after the trade, people will be moving him up obviously... I think there's a tiny dropoff after Arod, Hanley, Reyes, and Wright.. I think some people might start taking Santana at 5 with the Pujols news dropping his value further.. so most people are going to be looking at Holliday, Cabrera, and Rollins at 5 and I can see a lot of people going for the #1 pitcher on the board instead... so I might KDS 5 if I wanted Santana THAT bad.. plus if you don't get him, one of the top 4 drops to you anyways.. unless you're targeting a guy in round 2 who won't be there at pick 5 who would be at pick 7....

Lunatic · Post by **Lunatic** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 12:40 pm

19 drafts from 1/23 - 1/29 the earliest he has gone is 15 the latest 24; of course, that was before the trade; lets see what it looks like next week at this time; I don't take him round 1 no matter what; if I am at the end of the draft, I don't take him in round 2 either.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 12:55 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

If this is still true after 14 or 15 years...you'll have a real gripe.

~Lance gripes?!? not here. i've done very well without the #1 pick

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 12:57 pm

Originally posted by Less than Dave:

I think there's a tiny dropoff after Arod, Hanley, Reyes, and Wright.. I think some people might start taking Santana at 5 i'm not as optimitisc as you with the top-end talent at the beginning of the first round...that's what makes setting my KDS a challenge

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 1:05 pm

Originally posted by Lunatic:

19 drafts from 1/23 - 1/29 the earliest he has gone is 15 the latest 24; of course, that was before the trade; lets see what it looks like next week at this time; I don't take him round 1 no matter what; if I am at the end of the draft, I don't take him in round 2 either. Here is a hint Lunatic - whatever ADPs you are looking at --- toss them out the f***ing window for NFBC main event drafts

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 1:09 pm

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

quote:Originally posted by Lunatic:

19 drafts from 1/23 - 1/29 the earliest he has gone is 15 the latest 24; of course, that was before the trade; lets see what it looks like next week at this time; I don't take him round 1 no matter what; if I am at the end of the draft, I don't take him in round 2 either. Here is a hint Lunatic - whatever ADPs you are looking at --- toss them out the f***ing window for NFBC main event drafts

[/QUOTE]very good advice- mock draft central is worthless for this event. Great product well run, I love doing real drafts there. One guy changes the entire dynamics unless you have 15 educated and prepared drafters for this format you are getting nothing out of it.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 1:10 pm

chest - do u think i go santana in the first?

Lunatic · Post by **Lunatic** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 1:12 pm

Hook: I don't put any stock in these early drafts and know they don't mean crap in the Main Event; just showing what they were doing; like everyone else I do my own rankings and take players where I want to;

I know many of my friends who did not like me taking Braun at 12 in the Magazine draft; I am just glad I don't succumb to pressure;

but thanks for the heads up on the ADP's...

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 1:17 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

chest - do u think i go santana in the first? I have no clue and frankly do not care. I have full confidence you will do well again this year and I always root for you to do well. I am always amazed at how you get in people's heads...

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 1:23 pm

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

quote:Originally posted by Lunatic:

19 drafts from 1/23 - 1/29 the earliest he has gone is 15 the latest 24; of course, that was before the trade; lets see what it looks like next week at this time; I don't take him round 1 no matter what; if I am at the end of the draft, I don't take him in round 2 either. Here is a hint Lunatic - whatever ADPs you are looking at --- toss them out the f***ing window for NFBC main event drafts

[/QUOTE]I agree 100%, Hooker!

It's either holding back their real targets or sandbagging or trying different/alternate strategies than the main, or dumping a category due to single league, or the draft was too early in the season, or this guy got traded or non NFBC caliber drafters, or whatever other intangible.

...and even if you had 100% effort for NFBC caliber players...the dynamics of altering those same players to different draft positions...or even replacing one or two different drafters could yield an entirely different draft result.

Stick to guessing which round a player will be drafted...and after the first few rounds...add a plus or minus of 1 or 2 rounds...it's beautiful!

~Lance

Lunatic · Post by **Lunatic** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 1:23 pm

well, lets see, last Thursday, in the Mag II league, Johan went at 22; there were some good players drafting in that league...

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 1:27 pm

Originally posted by Lunatic:

well, lets see, last Thursday, in the Mag II league, Johan went at 22; there were some good players drafting in that league... Now you are on the right track just need a bigger sample size.

Lunatic · Post by **Lunatic** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 1:33 pm

You're right; on 3/1 I run a league that will draft; many good players and veterans of NFBC;

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 2:23 pm

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

chest - do u think i go santana in the first? I have no clue and frankly do not care. I have full confidence you will do well again this year and I always root for you to do well. I am always amazed at how you get in people's heads... [/QUOTE]Would u take him in the first? If not, there is still plenty of time to make the change in strategy.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 2:51 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

chest - do u think i go santana in the first? I have no clue and frankly do not care. I have full confidence you will do well again this year and I always root for you to do well. I am always amazed at how you get in people's heads... [/QUOTE]Would u take him in the first? If not, there is still plenty of time to make the change in strategy.

[/QUOTE]I would consider him after pick 13-