Can you get value_in_the_1st_round?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Dec 18, 2007 5:01 am

Yes! This year his name is Albert Pujols. I have a feeling in some leagues that he will slip to 5, 6 or even 7!! Yikes!! Consider this when contemplating Pujols on draft day, in his 7 year MLB career, he has NEVER scored fewer than 99 runs, hit fewer than 32 hr, knocked in fewer than 103 rbi’s, or hit less than .314!! WOW!!! Talk about guaranteed production.

A lot of people mention that the lineup surrounding pujols won’t be good. My question…was it good last year??? Who did they lose this offseason eck and crusty Edmonds?

Remember the first round can’t win you the 100K, but it can certainly lose it.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Dec 18, 2007 5:42 am

Mark, I am #5 in the Champions draft tonight. You had me all geared up to take Santana but now Pujols looks really good to me

Tell me, which one would you take with the 5th pick?

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Tue Dec 18, 2007 5:54 am

A real possibilty - a team somewhere out starting with Pujols & Santana in their first two rounds

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Tue Dec 18, 2007 6:06 am

I seriously doubt this.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Dec 18, 2007 6:20 am

I wouldn't have thought that ARod and Rollins could get on the same team last year, so I guess anything is possible, I would bet against it though.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Tue Dec 18, 2007 6:24 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

I seriously doubt this. I think Santana went in the 2nd rd in some drafts last season. All it takes is a little pin pricck of doubt - Puj's injuries, #'s slide, and weak supporting cast. Santana's good #'s but not heads & shoulders over the next 2 SP's...

If Santana stays in minny he'll slide once he hits rd 2 and could easily couple with a Puj's drafted 8-10.

[ December 18, 2007, 12:24 PM: Message edited by: Quahogs ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Dec 18, 2007 6:27 am

Dan – Selecting Santana in the 1st requires a lot of game planning as to where you will get your offense from in the remainder of the draft. I would not select Santana “off the cuff”. Without knowing what kind of prep time you put into this draft, I suggest you go with Poodles. In addition, Santana is still on the Twins. If he was on the Yanks or Sox, I’d be a lot more willing to selecting him at 5. Hope I helped. Good luck!

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Dec 18, 2007 6:34 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:

quote:Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

I seriously doubt this. I think Santana went in the 2nd rd in some drafts last season. All it takes is a little pin pricck of doubt - Puj's injuries, #'s slide, and weak supporting cast. Santana's good #'s but not heads & shoulders over the next 2 SP's...

If Santana stays in minny he'll slide once he hits rd 2 and could easily couple with a Puj's drafted 8-10. [/QUOTE]I don't think this will happen even if Santana does stay in Minnesota.

Minnesota is going to end up trading him, whether it's now or before the deadline. With the mindset that the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, and Angels are the only ones to afford the salary hit, most drafters will go into the draft valuing Santana more than just a mere Minnesota pitcher. Unless there is an injury or the perfect storm of 15 drafters hit, I think chances are very slim of Pujols and Santana being on the same team.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Tue Dec 18, 2007 6:37 am

i have only done 1 live nfbc draft- but 6 live wcoff drafts. i think when a player falls you have 2 types of drafters that i see- guys that "weren't planning on it" so they blindly went with their plan- and guys that see the value and it jumps out at them. only takes 3-4 in category #1 at 9-13 for some strange things to happen.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Dec 18, 2007 6:40 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Dan – Selecting Santana in the 1st requires a lot of game planning as to where you will get your offense from in the remainder of the draft. I would not select Santana “off the cuff”. Without knowing what kind of prep time you put into this draft, I suggest you go with Poodles. In addition, Santana is still on the Twins. If he was on the Yanks or Sox, I’d be a lot more willing to selecting him at 5. Hope I helped. Good luck! Thanks Mark.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Tue Dec 18, 2007 7:09 am

Pujols has gone stale. Not one team who drafted him last season won their league (main event). Not one team who drafted him had over 56 points in total offense.

Pin pricck of doubt

If Minny doesn't move Santana by draft day maybe they won't ? That and no Hunter patrolling CF ? Those bottom rounders not expecting to see him there will most likely continue with their 2 offense stud build out and let him slip and slide ...

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Tue Dec 18, 2007 7:19 am

Let me guess Quahogs, will you be KDSing in the 7-10 range, and will we be seeing a flood of these ads as Draft Day approaches?

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Tue Dec 18, 2007 7:24 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

Let me guess Quahogs, will you be KDSing in the 7-10 range, and will we be seeing a flood of these ads as Draft Day approaches?

that's if I wanted them. I'm not much of a minister of misinformation. If anything I should keep my mouth shut and let these guys push my babies down lol

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Tue Dec 18, 2007 7:44 am

why wasn't pujols in '07 the arod of '06?

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Tue Dec 18, 2007 9:08 am

You know, I think who you want to draft depends on a lot of other factors other than just "he's the best guy out there".. some guys aren't necessarily better, just different. For instance, unless you think Reyes develops 25 HR power this year (I dont), you could compare him and Ryan Howard.. Howard will get you big HR and RBI numbers, while Reyes will get you big SB and R numbers.. Howard's run production will probably be more beneficial than Reyes' RBI production, but then Reyes may have a higher average than Howard (assuming Howard is a .275ish hitter and not the .313 hitter he was in '06).. so ultimately you need to decide if you think there is more speed or power available later in the draft.. and what you think you need to get out of each position (ie power at 1B, speed at SS.. etc).. maybe if you draft Russel Martin at C (a position where you aren't expecting to get speed) then you don't need to have as much speed in a SS or something (maybe grab Tulowitzki)...

viper · Post by **viper** » Tue Dec 18, 2007 9:37 am

Going back to the subject of this thread, I sometimes think you cannot get real value in the first round. You actual goal is to minimize the chances of losing value this early. Any value you arrive it will be slight.

If your first four picks merely reach your expectations, you are off to a flying start. Leagues are lost with non-productive early picks. They are won with later picks who greatly exceed expectations and with wise in-season pickups.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Tue Dec 18, 2007 9:43 am

Originally posted by viper:

Going back to the subject of this thread, I sometimes think you cannot get real value in the first round. You actual goal is to minimize the chances of losing value this early. Any value you arrive it will be slight.

If your first four picks merely reach your expectations, you are off to a flying start. Leagues are lost with non-productive early picks. They are won with later picks who greatly exceed expectations and with wise in-season pickups. 3 thoughts:

1) I agree with everything Viper says above

2) Less than Dave- I agree with everything you said but not exactly earth shattering news there. Power vs speed Reyes is fast- Howard is fat. If you get speed from catcher it gives you flexibility elsewhere- I think about 375 guys already have that figured out.

3) The first round is not about value if you get it fine- if you chase it you will lose more than you win. The first 4 rounds are about foundation and staying within a strategy.

[ December 18, 2007, 03:43 PM: Message edited by: Chest Rockwell ]

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Wed Dec 19, 2007 3:23 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:

quote:Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

I seriously doubt this. I think Santana went in the 2nd rd in some drafts last season. All it takes is a little pin pricck of doubt - Puj's injuries, #'s slide, and weak supporting cast. Santana's good #'s but not heads & shoulders over the next 2 SP's...

If Santana stays in minny he'll slide once he hits rd 2 and could easily couple with a Puj's drafted 8-10. [/QUOTE]1st draft of the season with NFBC all-stars no less - Pujols 1.06 / Santana 2.13. Pair could have been matched up but it was PASSED OVER !

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Wed Dec 19, 2007 3:33 am

Originally posted by viper:

Going back to the subject of this thread, I sometimes think you cannot get real value in the first round. You actual goal is to minimize the chances of losing value this early. Any value you arrive it will be slight.

If your first four picks merely reach your expectations, you are off to a flying start. Leagues are lost with non-productive early picks. They are won with later picks who greatly exceed expectations and with wise in-season pickups. this simply says it all. just don't screw up in the first 4-5 rounds with risky picks, hope they stay healthy, and hopefully have a couple breakouts with the late rounders.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Wed Dec 19, 2007 3:41 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:

quote:Originally posted by Quahogs:

quote:Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

I seriously doubt this. I think Santana went in the 2nd rd in some drafts last season. All it takes is a little pin pricck of doubt - Puj's injuries, #'s slide, and weak supporting cast. Santana's good #'s but not heads & shoulders over the next 2 SP's...

If Santana stays in minny he'll slide once he hits rd 2 and could easily couple with a Puj's drafted 8-10. [/QUOTE]1st draft of the season with NFBC all-stars no less - Pujols 1.06 / Santana 2.13. Pair could have been matched up but it was PASSED OVER !

[/QUOTE]you may want to check your math- which team passed on them both?

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Wed Dec 19, 2007 4:02 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by Quahogs:

quote:Originally posted by Quahogs:

quote:Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

I seriously doubt this. I think Santana went in the 2nd rd in some drafts last season. All it takes is a little pin pricck of doubt - Puj's injuries, #'s slide, and weak supporting cast. Santana's good #'s but not heads & shoulders over the next 2 SP's...

If Santana stays in minny he'll slide once he hits rd 2 and could easily couple with a Puj's drafted 8-10. [/QUOTE]1st draft of the season with NFBC all-stars no less - Pujols 1.06 / Santana 2.13. Pair could have been matched up but it was PASSED OVER !

[/QUOTE]you may want to check your math- which team passed on them both? [/QUOTE]HA! I read from bottom up. What a dummy! LOL

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 10:48 pm

Originally posted by Less than Dave:

You know, I think who you want to draft depends on a lot of other factors other than just "he's the best guy out there".. some guys aren't necessarily better, just different. For instance, unless you think Reyes develops 25 HR power this year (I dont), you could compare him and Ryan Howard.. Howard will get you big HR and RBI numbers, while Reyes will get you big SB and R numbers.. Howard's run production will probably be more beneficial than Reyes' RBI production, but then Reyes may have a higher average than Howard (assuming Howard is a .275ish hitter and not the .313 hitter he was in '06).. so ultimately you need to decide if you think there is more speed or power available later in the draft.. and what you think you need to get out of each position (ie power at 1B, speed at SS.. etc).. maybe if you draft Russel Martin at C (a position where you aren't expecting to get speed) then you don't need to have as much speed in a SS or something (maybe grab Tulowitzki)... Great point. I think what you're saying is it's better to draft players that have the best value pertaining to your team, not necessarily pertaining to individual value? I believe in that wholeheartedly.

My drafts don't always look good on paper based on individual picks, but as a whole I feel I create a well constructed team.

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 8:31 am

yes, exactly.. it depends on where you think there is going to be value and who you can get later... that's how I decide who I'm taking in the early rounds.

baggler · Post by **baggler** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 1:24 pm

GG, love the thread and I too think that there is value in Pujols , my 2007 KDS landed me #8 in NY 6 and had me salivating as A-Rod was picked just before at #7. It was real strange to have him go so late for me , just being that he was a five cat. guy . Noone coulda invinsioned last year's stats for him.

I know you grabbed Santana in 2007 and I give you credit , you truly have to have a game plan to do so. And that game plan has to have a plan B. The most important part of the plan is to stick with the plan.

Q you could be right also that there is a possibility that Pujols and Santana could be paired up , seems like the Prince and Howard are the sexy picks.And with Wright , and Rollo getting love could Pujols go to #8 ? could be.

Does Santana fall to #23 probably not,but how 'bout Peavy making it . Not bad with a start of Peavy and Pujols.

My question is to you guys. I'm conservative and to me seeing Braun up there in the first round is wild. Personally I need atleast two seasons of a guy before I would consider him.And I know nothing ventured nothing gained.

But how many members here if they wound up with a KDS of 11-15 would draft Braun in 1.11-15 and if you wouldn't draft him in the first round,would you draft him 2.1-5?

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 1:32 pm

EDDY it's EDDIE, im not ready to draft yet , thats why i passed on the mag draft.But i wouldnt take him in the top 15 agreeing with you on show me twice for such a high pick.Things could change but right now i would have him 18 to 25. just my opinion.