Mock Draft Feedback

[Pollcat Marv]

I recently completed a mock draft and would appreciate any feedback from more experienced drafters. NFBC format, 15 teams, I drafted in the #4 spot.



Speed and Saves went quite early in this draft.



My team last year reeked, mainly due to my mistakes (can you say Rich Harden?). Thanks in advance for any help.



1. Pujols

2. Magglio

3. Chipper (probably too early)

4. Sabathia

5. Smoltz

6. Chris Young, SD

7. Hawpe

8. Helton

9. Johjima (there was a run on catchers)

10. Lowell

11. Cuddyer

12. Freddy Sanchez (slim pickings at 2B by then)

13. Blanton

14. Bartlett (same slim pickings at SS)

15. Maddux

16. Wigginton

17. Bradley

18. Orlando Hernandez

19. Winn

20. Qualls

21. Bard

22. Dave Bush

23. Garland



24. Milledge

25. Otsuka

26. Cody Ross

27. Ervin Santana

28. Wickman

29. Brendan Harris

[Chest Rockwell]

Originally posted by Pollcat Marv:

I recently completed a mock draft and would appreciate any feedback from more experienced drafters. NFBC format, 15 teams, I drafted in the #4 spot.



Speed and Saves went quite early in this draft.



My team last year reeked, mainly due to my mistakes (can you say Rich Harden?). Thanks in advance for any help.



1. Pujols too early

2. Magglio way too early

3. Chipper way way too early

4. Sabathia way too early

5. Smoltz way way too early

6. Chris Young, SD

7. Hawpe

8. Helton

9. Johjima (there was a run on catchers)

10. Lowell too early

11. Cuddyer

12. Freddy Sanchez (slim pickings at 2B by then)

13. Blanton

14. Bartlett (same slim pickings at SS)

15. Maddux

16. Wigginton

17. Bradley

18. Orlando Hernandez

19. Winn

20. Qualls

21. Bard

22. Dave Bush

23. Garland



24. Milledge

25. Otsuka

26. Cody Ross

27. Ervin Santana

28. Wickman

29. Brendan Harris see my notes above it is almost like you were two different people doing this draft. In the beginning you are way way off on values of where people are going. Not that I do not like some of those guys but you are one to three rounds to early in some cases. After about round 6 you start hitting it dead on for relative value.



That is a bottom third team 100 out of 100 times- if everything goes well you still have zero speed and zero saves.



I would never ever use 3 of my first 6 picks on starting pitchers especially when all 3 of them have some type of question mark IE heavy workload in 07, age, and some injury question marks.



Hope this helps not in any way trying to blast you and it is just one man's opinion- the beauty of it is you have 65 days to get it right and forget about a disappointing 2007. Good luck

[Spartacus]

Marv

Listen to Professor Rockwell, his assessment was pretty accurate as he referred to a tale of two drafts. Last night I had the opportunity and pleasure of running with the bulls in the Shawn Childs league. As tough and knowledgeable a league as you'll find anywhere. That being the case, let me refer to our 3 players in common: Johjima-Bartlett-Bush. We both drafted Johjima in the 9th round and I believe we were both spot on regarding his ADP. You might have been a few rounds early on Bartlett (I got him in the 17th to round out my SB's), but it wasn't far off his value, except in your case you didn't do much else to help your SB category so his value to you will be minimal. I took Bush in rd. 20 vs. your 22. I think you got decent value there providing he's not the bum he was last year.(Let's hope)

'Chest' also questioned your strategy of taking pitchers in rounds 4-6. I did you one better by taking pitchers 4-7. Don't get me wrong here, I like the pitchers I took (Verlander-King Felix-Dice K-Saito) even if they were taken slightly earlier than their ADP would suggest. In retrospect, I think Chest was right although maybe for different reasons. While it's true that when you take too many pitchers early you miss out on the available offensive opportunities, what I found to be the case is that I began to rest on my early advantage as I played catch-up on offense. As a consequence, I missed out on later pitching values and my pitching staff is not as good (on paper) as I would have liked. Overall, I would say I assembled a middle of the road team. It has no really dominant categories, by the same token it doesn't have any gaping holes that can't be fixed by a few well spent FAAB bucks.

As for you Marv, Listen to the Rockwell's of the world, and keep playing in mocks to work on ADP values. Better yet, join a Sat. league or two, you'll find that when money and prestige are on the line they ring truer. Best of luck, and 'Let's Play Ball'.

[Crazy Like a Fox]

Originally posted by Pollcat Marv:

I recently completed a mock draft and would appreciate any feedback from more experienced drafters. NFBC format, 15 teams, I drafted in the #4 spot.



Speed and Saves went quite early in this draft.



My team last year reeked, mainly due to my mistakes (can you say Rich Harden?). Thanks in advance for any help.



1. Pujols

2. Magglio

3. Chipper (probably too early)

4. Sabathia

5. Smoltz

6. Chris Young, SD

7. Hawpe

8. Helton

9. Johjima (there was a run on catchers)

10. Lowell

11. Cuddyer

12. Freddy Sanchez (slim pickings at 2B by then)

13. Blanton

14. Bartlett (same slim pickings at SS)

15. Maddux

16. Wigginton

17. Bradley

18. Orlando Hernandez

19. Winn

20. Qualls

21. Bard

22. Dave Bush

23. Garland



24. Milledge

25. Otsuka

26. Cody Ross

27. Ervin Santana

28. Wickman

29. Brendan Harris I'm not an experienced NFBC'er but I'll still give it a shot. I think the best part about this draft was that it was a mock. I think it's smart that you posted this draft to be critiqued early instead of this being the real draft.



I think your first 2 picks of the draft were fine. Then all of sudden, Chipper in the 3rd? He's averaged about 125 games per year the last 4 years and he's going to be 36 years old most of the season. On top of that, you could have waited until the 5th-6th round to get him. Why not wait for Garrett Atkins in the 4th?



Sabathia in the 4th is fine, but Smoltz in the 5th? Could have waited until the 7th-8th to get him. So far, you have me thinking you're a Braves fan, which makes me want to tell you not to draft any Braves in your draft because you will surely draft them before it's reasonable.



Chris Young at 6 is fine but you don't have anymore stolen bases. That's it. And the rest of your draft looks like mediocre players who don't have a whole lot of upside. I mean, late in the draft you want to take high risk/high reward guys and I see none of those. It just looks like you were trying to play it as safe as possible without thinking about risk/reward.



I have to agree with Chest here. Tough draft to look at.



What I would suggest is to look at some expert's drafts and see where some of the players are going to give you a better idea. I have a problem with your player valuation as well and the slots you're taking them.



Just my thoughts.



Do some more research. Go back and do another mock and post it up again.

[Gordon Gekko]

as others have said, no speed AND no saves will kill you. there are a couple guys who i think you selected too early (chipper & smoltz), but if your projections support you taking them there, that's all that matters.

[Chest Rockwell]

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by Pollcat Marv:

I recently completed a mock draft and would appreciate any feedback from more experienced drafters. NFBC format, 15 teams, I drafted in the #4 spot.



Speed and Saves went quite early in this draft.



My team last year reeked, mainly due to my mistakes (can you say Rich Harden?). Thanks in advance for any help.



1. Pujols

2. Magglio

3. Chipper (probably too early)

4. Sabathia

5. Smoltz

6. Chris Young, SD

7. Hawpe

8. Helton

9. Johjima (there was a run on catchers)

10. Lowell

11. Cuddyer

12. Freddy Sanchez (slim pickings at 2B by then)

13. Blanton

14. Bartlett (same slim pickings at SS)

15. Maddux

16. Wigginton

17. Bradley

18. Orlando Hernandez

19. Winn

20. Qualls

21. Bard

22. Dave Bush

23. Garland



24. Milledge

25. Otsuka

26. Cody Ross

27. Ervin Santana

28. Wickman

29. Brendan Harris I'm not an experienced NFBC'er but I'll still give it a shot. I think the best part about this draft was that it was a mock. I think it's smart that you posted this draft to be critiqued early instead of this being the real draft.



I think your first 2 picks of the draft were fine. Then all of sudden, Chipper in the 3rd? He's averaged about 125 games per year the last 4 years and he's going to be 36 years old most of the season. On top of that, you could have waited until the 5th-6th round to get him. Why not wait for Garrett Atkins in the 4th?



Sabathia in the 4th is fine, but Smoltz in the 5th? Could have waited until the 7th-8th to get him. So far, you have me thinking you're a Braves fan, which makes me want to tell you not to draft any Braves in your draft because you will surely draft them before it's reasonable.



Chris Young at 6 is fine but you don't have anymore stolen bases. That's it. And the rest of your draft looks like mediocre players who don't have a whole lot of upside. I mean, late in the draft you want to take high risk/high reward guys and I see none of those. It just looks like you were trying to play it as safe as possible without thinking about risk/reward.



I have to agree with Chest here. Tough draft to look at.



What I would suggest is to look at some expert's drafts and see where some of the players are going to give you a better idea. I have a problem with your player valuation as well and the slots you're taking them.



Just my thoughts.



Do some more research. Go back and do another mock and post it up again. [/QUOTE]Mags in the 2nd is not fine- 90% of the time you could get Mags in the 3rd. Is he really worth the reach?



Same thing with Sabathia in the 4th- one thing that is good about picks 1-8 is you are almost guaranteed to get either one of the 2 A pitchers Bedard or Webb in the 4th (Peavy and Santana being A Plus) or you can get an A minus pitcher (Sabathia, Haren, Verlander etc) in the 5th.



The other thing that Crazy is a bit off on is Atkins will not be there in the 4th in most drafts- I know he was in the champs but IMO that is a big abberation.



Hang in there Marv- still a long way to go before opening day and a lot of tweaking to do.

[bluenose]

I actually like this team. He DOES have high risk/high reward guys toward the end of his draft...the guys who stand a chance to fall into closer status.



I know Marv isn't playing this out, but if he was,and bought a closer and had two of (Qualls, Otsuka, Wickman) as closers before the all star breakthere 60 points to be had in pitching.

[Captain Hook]

Originally posted by bluenose:

I actually like this team. He DOES have high risk/high reward guys toward the end of his draft...the guys who stand a chance to fall into closer status.



I know Marv isn't playing this out, but if he was,and bought a closer and had two of (Qualls, Otsuka, Wickman) as closers before the all star breakthere 60 points to be had in pitching. Qualls = set up man for Lyons and/or Pena in AZ

Otsuka = not on a roster coming off injury

Wickman = not on Braves 40 man roster and likely not going to be



hard to figure out how these guys are going to contribute

[Crazy Like a Fox]

Originally posted by Spartacus:

Marv

Listen to Professor Rockwell, his assessment was pretty accurate as he referred to a tale of two drafts. Last night I had the opportunity and pleasure of running with the bulls in the Shawn Childs league. As tough and knowledgeable a league as you'll find anywhere. That being the case, let me refer to our 3 players in common: Johjima-Bartlett-Bush. We both drafted Johjima in the 9th round and I believe we were both spot on regarding his ADP. You might have been a few rounds early on Bartlett (I got him in the 17th to round out my SB's), but it wasn't far off his value, except in your case you didn't do much else to help your SB category so his value to you will be minimal. I took Bush in rd. 20 vs. your 22. I think you got decent value there providing he's not the bum he was last year.(Let's hope)

'Chest' also questioned your strategy of taking pitchers in rounds 4-6. I did you one better by taking pitchers 4-7. Don't get me wrong here, I like the pitchers I took (Verlander-King Felix-Dice K-Saito) even if they were taken slightly earlier than their ADP would suggest. In retrospect, I think Chest was right although maybe for different reasons. While it's true that when you take too many pitchers early you miss out on the available offensive opportunities, what I found to be the case is that I began to rest on my early advantage as I played catch-up on offense. As a consequence, I missed out on later pitching values and my pitching staff is not as good (on paper) as I would have liked. Overall, I would say I assembled a middle of the road team. It has no really dominant categories, by the same token it doesn't have any gaping holes that can't be fixed by a few well spent FAAB bucks.

As for you Marv, Listen to the Rockwell's of the world, and keep playing in mocks to work on ADP values. Better yet, join a Sat. league or two, you'll find that when money and prestige are on the line they ring truer. Best of luck, and 'Let's Play Ball'. Good point on missing out on later pitching values by going too many starting pitchers early. I made the mistake last year of picking 4 starting pitchers in the first 10 picks which killed my offense. It didn't help that my first 2 picks of the draft were offensive dogs. I did manage to end up first or 2nd in 4 out of 5 pitching categories but my offense wasn't quite good enough to overcome.



This year I see sooooo many pitching opportunities 10-15 rounds that I think it's crazy to take too many starting pitchers early.



I do think the best value of the draft is Johan in the 2nd round. Why not take him, get Saito in the 5th, focus on offense on the other early picks and then there's plenty of solid looking starting pitchers out there who can easily be plucked late. Atleast that's my game plan this year. Put it this way, I see McGowan being very close to Dice-K in my projections, maybe even better, and you could have gotten McGowan in the 14th. And you could have gotten a nice offensive player in the 7th that you would have never gotten in the 14th. A Brad Hawpe, a Posada, Swisher, Victorino or a Delmon Young.



McGowan/Billingsley/Liriano/Cain/Bonderman/Slowey/Perez/Garza/Harden and many more are going late in draft and they are absolute steals.

[Crazy Like a Fox]

You could be right about Atkins moving up. He should be a 3rd round pick.



As far as Mags going too early, I disagree. This guy's 2nd round pick, was pick 27, right before 3rd round. I don't see Mags going past the 35th pick so if he's a few picks early and is big on him then why not?

[Gordon Gekko]

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

one thing that is good about picks 1-8 is you are almost guaranteed to get either one of the 2 A pitchers Bedard or Webb in the 4th (Peavy and Santana being A Plus) or you can get an A minus pitcher (Sabathia, Haren, Verlander etc) in the 5th. 'almost' is the key word here.



for instance, let's say i have a bedard hardon if i'm slot 15 and i'm at pick 4.1, i will have NO problem bypassing my top hitter and selecting bedard (if i think i can get a similar hitter in the 5th). if i do that, a 4th round SP run could ensue, leaving the early slots with SP tablescraps (so to say)

[Crazy Like a Fox]

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

one thing that is good about picks 1-8 is you are almost guaranteed to get either one of the 2 A pitchers Bedard or Webb in the 4th (Peavy and Santana being A Plus) or you can get an A minus pitcher (Sabathia, Haren, Verlander etc) in the 5th. 'almost' is the key word here.



for instance, let's say i have a bedard hardon if i'm slot 15 and i'm at pick 4.1, i will have NO problem bypassing my top hitter and selecting bedard (if i think i can get a similar hitter in the 5th). if i do that, a 4th round SP run could ensue, leaving the early slots with SP tablescraps (so to say) [/QUOTE]I have a Johan hardon and my draft is 2 months away. Time to stock up on the ole viagra.

[headhunters]

crazy - nice posts. and harden will be an absolute steal every year- until he actually pitches. then he will go in the 3rd round.

[bjoak]

Originally posted by headhunters:

crazy - nice posts. and harden will be an absolute steal every year- until he actually pitches. then he will go in the 3rd round. Yeah, seriously. I'd take Prior before Harden. Where are those two going in the drafts, btw? Just curious.

[eddiejag]

Magglio went in the 3rd round in the Childs draft last night pick 7.That is 37 overall pretty good value.

Here's my squad picking 1.

1 ARod

2 Rios

3 Figgins paid for speed [maybe 60]

4 Hafner pick 60 crazy

5 Putz top closer

6 Haren my horse

7 Hawpe 30 hr 100 rbi 290 bavg.

8 Myers 200 k's 15 wins if healthy all year.

9 Hoffman

10 Loney 344 last year

11 Polanco another 100 runs 300 hitter

12 Joba who knows

13 Josh Fields a little early

14 Zack Greinke breakout coming

15 G Anderson 13hr 65 rbi's

16 R Paulino

17 Yunel Escobar should play lot.

18 S Marcum

19 R Sexson steal maybe

20 Xavier Nady

21 As Cabrera

22 J Benoit

23 H Bell

24 G Zaun

25 E Santana

26 C Monroe

27 M Batista

28 A Reyes

29 D Richar

30 Wilkerson

FOR my first draft i would give it a B.

Didnt get a shortstop [a good one] and could have gotten another outfielder. Josh Fields does qualify at 3b and of. I would have liked to get another big pitcher. Opinions welcomed.

[eddiejag]

Garret ANDERSON 13 hr and 65 rbi's was his 2nd half number's.

[Chest Rockwell]

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Magglio went in the 3rd round in the Childs draft last night pick 7.That is 37 overall pretty good value.

Here's my squad picking 1.

1 ARod

2 Rios

3 Figgins paid for speed [maybe 60]

4 Hafner pick 60 crazy

5 Putz top closer

6 Haren my horse

7 Hawpe 30 hr 100 rbi 290 bavg.

8 Myers 200 k's 15 wins if healthy all year.

9 Hoffman

10 Loney 344 last year

11 Polanco another 100 runs 300 hitter

12 Joba who knows

13 Josh Fields a little early

14 Zack Greinke breakout coming

15 G Anderson 13hr 65 rbi's

16 R Paulino

17 Yunel Escobar should play lot.

18 S Marcum

19 R Sexson steal maybe

20 Xavier Nady

21 As Cabrera

22 J Benoit

23 H Bell

24 G Zaun

25 E Santana

26 C Monroe

27 M Batista

28 A Reyes

29 D Richar

30 Wilkerson

FOR my first draft i would give it a B.

Didnt get a shortstop [a good one] and could have gotten another outfielder. Josh Fields does qualify at 3b and of. I would have liked to get another big pitcher. Opinions welcomed. I would grade it a little higher than a B Eddie. I think the one spot is a tough spot this year so well done. One thing jumps out at me though- you have to start the year with Sexson on the bench. Arod, Figgins, Loney on corner w Hafner at Utility? Haren last pick of the 6th is a steal IMO.

[Pollcat Marv]

Thanks to all for the excellent feedback - a few notes...



Is Pujols really too early at R1P4? If ARod, Hanley, and Wright go 1-2-3, who should go next? Reyes? Rollins? Holliday? Bonds? (just kidding on that last one)



In retrospect, I should have gone with speed instead of Chipper at 3, and probably Bedard over Sabathia in 4



Insanity is defined as doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result - after injuries killed me last year, I took Chipper (only slightly less brittle than the aforementioned Harden and Prior).



BTW Chest, in this draft Peavy, Johan and Webb were all gone by R4P12.

[Captain Hook]

What happened to Chris Carpenter Eddie - you drafted him three different times

[Gordon Gekko]

Eddie - just eyeballing the players, it looks like a pretty damn good draft against the competition. Good job!

[Gordon Gekko]

Originally posted by Pollcat Marv:



Is Pujols really too early at R1P4? If ARod, Hanley, and Wright go 1-2-3, who should go next? Reyes? Rollins? Holliday? Bonds? (just kidding on that last one)

Poodles is fine at 4. The usually reliable Chest is out of whack on that one

[Spartacus]

I thought he drafted Carpenter 4 times?

[Kimo]

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Garret ANDERSON 13 hr and 65 rbi's was his 2nd half number's. Hey Eddie,

Great draft last night. Garrett Anderson....the problem with Garrett is that Mock Draft Central has him ranked so high. You see his name, you have to get him a little earlier than usual. I like Garrett, but I am a little worried about him.



1, I believe this is his last year with the Angels. He is a Free Agent next year. Who knows what the Angels are thinking with Garrett this year. They still have Rivera, Willis, and 60 SBs Figgins, who just might move to the outfeild if they trade for a 3B. Don't get me wrong, I like Garrett, but he comes with a little bit more risk this year.



Remember Eddie, you are supposed to call me after the draft. I got an offer you can't refuse. You are in the Mafia, right?

[Crazy Like a Fox]

Originally posted by Pollcat Marv:

Thanks to all for the excellent feedback - a few notes...



Is Pujols really too early at R1P4? If ARod, Hanley, and Wright go 1-2-3, who should go next? Reyes? Rollins? Holliday? Bonds? (just kidding on that last one)



In retrospect, I should have gone with speed instead of Chipper at 3, and probably Bedard over Sabathia in 4



Insanity is defined as doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result - after injuries killed me last year, I took Chipper (only slightly less brittle than the aforementioned Harden and Prior).



BTW Chest, in this draft Peavy, Johan and Webb were all gone by R4P12. Pujols is fine at that spot. Wait 'til the season gets underway. All the guys that passed on him will regret it. I think Sabathia is a safer bet than Bedard although Bedard has some serious strikeout potential. He missed a month last year. Add on his average month last year and you're looking at 15 to 16 wins - 260 K's - 3.15 e.r.a. - 1.15 whip. He still has to stay healthy and consistent over a whole season.



It's funny, I see Johan and Peavy giving top 7 value this year. Pitching is so underrated in fantasy baseball. I know it's less predictable, but there are exceptions. Is Johan less predictable and have a less chance of producing than B.J. Upton? I don't think so. I understand why offense usually gets taken before pitching though.



I know one thing, Johan should be going top 8 in just about every draft and he's not. That's fine. Whoever gets him is going to get incredible value out of the 2nd round.

[Vander]

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by headhunters:

crazy - nice posts. and harden will be an absolute steal every year- until he actually pitches. then he will go in the 3rd round. Yeah, seriously. I'd take Prior before Harden. Where are those two going in the drafts, btw? Just curious. [/QUOTE]Harden low to mid teens, Prior usually isn't drafted in the first 23.