NFBC

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 7:31 am

With 80 people on the message board, I have a few things in my document file if anyone is interested.

[ January 13, 2008, 09:17 PM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 7:37 am

I'll show you mine if you show me yours....

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 7:44 am

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 7:46 am

Round one from recent "hardcore" draft - comments?

A. Rodriguez

Pujols

Wright

H. Ramirez

J. Reyes

Rollins

Utley

Holliday

B. Phillips

M. Cabrera

R. Braun

R. Howard

A. Soriano

J. Santana

Crawford

Sheep · Post by **Sheep** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 7:46 am

For the 85 guests - if CC shares things from his files read them twice, as he is one of the best. If you are here you are a serious player - you should consider playing here. The NFBC has a main event ($1,300 entry fee) with a $100,000 grand prize. There are also higher and lower dollar games - if you are considering joining another league NFBC is the place to play.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 7:55 am

Obviously the pick of Brandon Phillips at 1-9 stands out - but if the guy really thinks there is a further breakout coming....

I still think people are ranking Miguel Cabrera too low....

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 7:55 am

During the baseball season, there are 26 weeks to set your line-up. My goal in the NFBC main event is to get 4 wins and 48 strikeouts a week. If I did that, I would have 104 wins and about 1250 K’s at the end of the year. These goals are for winning the overall title in the NFBC. I try to get in the top 20 percent in every category. With that mind set, I think it is easy to track where I stand each week. I think most pitchers win one out of three starts. They get a win, a loss, and a no decision. A starter getting thirty-three starts will win about eleven games. Everyone should have a couple of front line guys who should have a higher percentage, but the staff as whole might be under performing. Last year in the NFBC, there were 148 teams between 99 wins and 88 wins.

The ideal goal at the NFBC is draft a pitching staff that puts you in range to achieve some of these goals. If you come up short on draft day, you will be forced to the waiver wire. The more you dip into the pitching pool on the wire, the more risk you take in lowering your whip and era. They will be some opportunities for sure. If they are there, you will need to see them and move fast. They won’t last long.

After the draft, you can track your pitching staff each week to see if you are on pace to achieve your goals. If you get to the end of week 10 and have 32 wins, you know you have a problem. I would look at it like I’m 8 wins behind my goal. I could wait around and hope my pitching staff turns the corner, but as the weeks pass so will my chances. As I said before, I think pitchers win one out of three starts. In order to make up 8 wins, I will need to get an extra twenty-four starts over the last 16 weeks of the season. There is always the chance that my staff comes around while I’m adding double starters. If this happen, I can back of the double starts if I get to my target number.

You can use the same tactic for strikeouts, but you might not need to be as aggressive with them if you are only lacking the one category. If your whip and era are good, you could hurt yourself in two categories trying to make up one. You always have the bonus of wins while chasing strikeouts. The better you are at evaluating pitching the better you will be at minimizing your risk.

At the draft you have 9 pitching spots to fill. In order to get 1250 strikeouts, you will need to get 1100 strikeouts out of 7 starting pitching slots. You will need 150 from two relievers to make the number. If you draft say Hoffman as your first closer, you will need close to 100 from you second closer slot. If you don’t, you will need to get more from your starters. It will be hard enough getting 1100 never mind adding a few more. You will need to average 157 strikeouts for those 7 slots to make 1100. If you chose to use your 7th pitching slot for a closer, your wins and strikeouts will most likely need some work at some point in the year.

Every league will be different in the NFBC. You can win your league with less than these goals. If you want to win the overall title, you need to be up top in a few categories. These are the numbers you will need to shoot for in wins and strikeouts. It will be a fine line balancing hitting and pitching. I line we will all have to walk.

[ January 12, 2008, 01:57 PM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 7:55 am

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

Round one from recent "hardcore" draft - comments?

A. Rodriguez

Pujols

Wright

H. Ramirez

J. Reyes

Rollins

Utley

Holliday

B. Phillips

M. Cabrera

R. Braun

R. Howard

A. Soriano

J. Santana

Crawford Thing that stands out is Phillips at #9.

Seems like a guy you can definitely get in the 2nd round. Why not wait?

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 7:57 am

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by Captain Hook:

Round one from recent "hardcore" draft - comments?

A. Rodriguez

Pujols

Wright

H. Ramirez

J. Reyes

Rollins

Utley

Holliday

B. Phillips

M. Cabrera

R. Braun

R. Howard

A. Soriano

J. Santana

Crawford Thing that stands out is Phillips at #9.

Seems like a guy you can definitely get in the 2nd round. Why not wait? [/QUOTE]At pick 9, he wouldn't get him in the second round.

[ January 12, 2008, 02:01 PM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 7:58 am

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by Captain Hook:

Round one from recent "hardcore" draft - comments?

A. Rodriguez

Pujols

Wright

H. Ramirez

J. Reyes

Rollins

Utley

Holliday

B. Phillips

M. Cabrera

R. Braun

R. Howard

A. Soriano

J. Santana

Crawford Thing that stands out is Phillips at #9.

Seems like a guy you can definitely get in the 2nd round. Why not wait? [/QUOTE]Well it's not likely he could get him at 2-7, so he must really have wanted him...

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 7:59 am

very good article Shawn... we know from talking to a lot of players that many haven't broken down the category targets to this degree to have a better handle on where they are

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:01 am

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by Captain Hook:

Round one from recent "hardcore" draft - comments?

A. Rodriguez

Pujols

Wright

H. Ramirez

J. Reyes

Rollins

Utley

Holliday

B. Phillips

M. Cabrera

R. Braun

R. Howard

A. Soriano

J. Santana

Crawford Thing that stands out is Phillips at #9.

Seems like a guy you can definitely get in the 2nd round. Why not wait? [/QUOTE]The guy who made that pick won a 100,000 more than you playing fantasy baseball last year.

I think Phillips will go mid first round in more drafts than most will expect in 08. I consider KJ Duke to be the Rosa Parks of this trend with Rollins in 07. The thought process being if you jump on Phillips there you get the more scarce thing taken care of and is there that much difference between the player you pass on in round one to get Phillips versus who is left in round 2 rather than "hoping" Phillips is still there.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:03 am

Welcome Chest...good post

I think it's likely the drafter at 1-9 knew he had NO chance of getting Phillips in the second and decided to get him while he could and that he would come out better - round two coming

[ January 12, 2008, 02:04 PM: Message edited by: Captain Hook ]

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:04 am

Excellent post, CC.. I too have been looking at what it takes to win in each category... however, I think a large part can be won in FA. The draft is overrated a bit. It's not the end-all. You need to stay sharp in FA regardless of how well you do in the draft. I think you can make up quite a bit in FA... maybe that's just because I was in Inebriated's league, and he skyrocketed from picking up Braun and Carmona last year... without them he probably doesn't even get top 20.

I think if Phillips is the guy you want, you take him there because he could easily go at the beginning of the 2nd round and not make it back to the guy picking 9th in the first round.

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:05 am

I also love Reyes at 5 and Soriano at 13... do not like Pujols at 2 at all.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:07 am

Round 2

2-1 Teixeira

2-2 D. Ortiz

2-3 R. Martin

2-4 B.J. Upton

2-5 Tulowitzki

2-6 Sizemore

2-7 V. Martinez

2-8 Vlad

2-9 Beltran

2-10 C. Lee

2-11 Fielder

2-12 Peavy

2-13 Berkman

2-14 Granderson

2-15 Rios

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:09 am

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

Round 2

2-1 Teixeira

2-2 D. Ortiz

2-3 R. Martin

2-4 B.J. Upton

2-5 Tulowitzki

2-6 Sizemore

2-7 V. Martinez

2-8 Vlad

2-9 Beltran

2-10 C. Lee

2-11 Fielder

2-12 Peavy

2-13 Berkman

2-14 Granderson

2-15 Rios Letting Shawn get Prince Fielder in round 2 is just not right. Todd you sure do have a love affair with Vladi in 08-

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:10 am

Originally posted by Less than Dave:

Excellent post, CC.. I too have been looking at what it takes to win in each category... however, I think a large part can be won in FA. The draft is overrated a bit. It's not the end-all. You need to stay sharp in FA regardless of how well you do in the draft. I think you can make up quite a bit in FA... maybe that's just because I was in Inebriated's league, and he skyrocketed from picking up Braun and Carmona last year... without them he probably doesn't even get top 20.

I think if Phillips is the guy you want, you take him there because he could easily go at the beginning of the 2nd round and not make it back to the guy picking 9th in the first round. I think you can find help on the wire, but there is no guarentee you will hit on your pick ups like the team you mentioned. If you could find a couple players on the waiver wire, you did a good job. If you think you can save a bad draft from the free agent pool, it's going to be a long year.

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:12 am

WOW! What an interesting draft... I love it. The weakness at catcher is certainly being underlined here. What a value for Fielder! I think Rios is overrated.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:12 am

Originally posted by Less than Dave:

Excellent post, CC.. I too have been looking at what it takes to win in each category... however, I think a large part can be won in FA. The draft is overrated a bit. It's not the end-all. You need to stay sharp in FA regardless of how well you do in the draft. I think you can make up quite a bit in FA... maybe that's just because I was in Inebriated's league, and he skyrocketed from picking up Braun and Carmona last year... without them he probably doesn't even get top 20.

I think you are mistaken to a degree about FA less than

The Draft is the base and thus most important part of your team.

YES, roster management is very important - a big piece of your team's performance, but nobody wins on just a draft.

As mentioned before, Inebriated had to get very lucky to have Braun drafted in his league AND then dropped prior to his coming up so he would be able to get him before the FA bids went wild after he was called up and playing.

BUT in addition to managing your pitching staff through FA, you have to be able to take care of the rest of your team and being heavily reliant on just pitching additions will cause you to be weakened elsewhere.

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:14 am

oh I agree.. you absolutely need a strong draft... but I think FA can turn your fortunes either way.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:16 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by Captain Hook:

Round one from recent "hardcore" draft - comments?

A. Rodriguez

Pujols

Wright

H. Ramirez

J. Reyes

Rollins

Utley

Holliday

B. Phillips

M. Cabrera

R. Braun

R. Howard

A. Soriano

J. Santana

Crawford Thing that stands out is Phillips at #9.

Seems like a guy you can definitely get in the 2nd round. Why not wait? [/QUOTE]The guy who made that pick won a 100,000 more than you playing fantasy baseball last year.

I think Phillips will go mid first round in more drafts than most will expect in 08. I consider KJ Duke to be the Rosa Parks of this trend with Rollins in 07. The thought process being if you jump on Phillips there you get the more scarce thing taken care of and is there that much difference between the player you pass on in round one to get Phillips versus who is left in round 2 rather than "hoping" Phillips is still there. [/QUOTE]I have Phillips being better value than Utley this year so I'm not saying it's a bad pick, I'm saying he could have waited. But if he likes him there, I'm sure he'll get even value for him.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:17 am

Originally posted by Less than Dave:

oh I agree.. you absolutely need a strong draft... but I think FA can turn your fortunes either way. Funny, but this, and

"The draft is overrated a bit"

this don't seem to go together.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:18 am

Crazy - the point is he could NOT have waited - he would have had no chance in this draft to get him at 2-7

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:19 am

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by Captain Hook:

Round one from recent "hardcore" draft - comments?

A. Rodriguez

Pujols

Wright

H. Ramirez

J. Reyes

Rollins

Utley

Holliday

B. Phillips

M. Cabrera

R. Braun

R. Howard

A. Soriano

J. Santana

Crawford Thing that stands out is Phillips at #9.

Seems like a guy you can definitely get in the 2nd round. Why not wait? [/QUOTE]The guy who made that pick won a 100,000 more than you playing fantasy baseball last year.

I think Phillips will go mid first round in more drafts than most will expect in 08. I consider KJ Duke to be the Rosa Parks of this trend with Rollins in 07. The thought process being if you jump on Phillips there you get the more scarce thing taken care of and is there that much difference between the player you pass on in round one to get Phillips versus who is left in round 2 rather than "hoping" Phillips is still there. [/QUOTE]I have Phillips being better value than Utley this year so I'm not saying it's a bad pick, I'm saying he could have waited. But if he likes him there, I'm sure he'll get even value for him. [/QUOTE]I am just busting your balls Crazy- I thought the same thing when I saw it but I am not going to question that cat's strategy after last year. I do think Phillips will be this year's Rollins and will disappoint a lot of owners waiting for him in early round 2.