NFBC Magazine League II

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 17, 2008 7:53 am

The KDS for this draft was among the best that I can ever remember doing. Many in this group had unique KDS preferences as they have solid strategies for where they want to draft. As a result, the average KDS was 3.7 -- amazingly high when in a random draft the average person gets a preference of 8 -- with 10 owners getting their first, second or third preference. Great job everyone in establishing your KDS and your draft strategy.

Here's some facts about this KDS:

** 4 owners got their first KDS preference

** 4 owners got their second KDS preference

** 2 owners got their third KDS preference

** The other five owners got preferences that ranged from 6 to 9. The lowest KDS was 9th. Pretty solid.

** Only three owners left their KDS at 1-15.

** No. 1 was the top preference from nine owners. No. 15 was the last preference of six owners.

Here were the 15 KDS preferences, not in any particular order:

1,9,10,13,12,11,14,3,2,8,7,6,5,4,15

1,4,5,6,3,2,15,14,13,12,11,10,9,8,7

8,7,9,6,10,1,15,2,14,3,4,5,11,12,13

15,14,13,12,11,10,9,8,7,6,1,5,4,3,2

1,6,7,15,14,5,4,3,2,13,12,8,9,11,10

1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15

1,2,3,4,5,6,15,14,13,7,8,9,10,11,12

5,3,4,1,2,6,7,7,11,10,12,14,13,15,9

6,1,5,4,3,13,14,15,8,7,10,11,12,2,9

6,7,8,9,10,5,11,12,13,14,15,1,2,3,4

1,2,3,4,13,14,15,5,6,9,10,11,12,7,8

1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15

1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15

10,11,12,13,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,14,15

1,4,5,13,12,11,10,2,3,6,7,8,9,14,15

Geoffrey Stein · Post by **Geoffrey Stein** » Thu Jan 17, 2008 8:33 am

This draft has been created and e-mail invites have been sent.

Everyone involved please take a minute to log-in and look for the draft, as many of the drafters have multiple accounts at the site.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Jan 17, 2008 8:40 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

The KDS for this draft was among the best that I can ever remember doing. Many in this group had unique KDS preferences as they have solid strategies for where they want to draft. As a result, the average KDS was 3.7 -- amazingly high when in a random draft the average person gets a preference of 8 -- with 10 owners getting their first, second or third preference. Great job everyone in establishing your KDS and your draft strategy.

Here's some facts about this KDS:

** 4 owners got their first KDS preference

** 4 owners got their second KDS preference

** 2 owners got their third KDS preference

** The other five owners got preferences that ranged from 6 to 9. The lowest KDS was 9th. Pretty solid.

** Only three owners left their KDS at 1-15.

** No. 1 was the top preference from nine owners. No. 15 was the last preference of six owners.

Here were the 15 KDS preferences, not in any particular order:

1,9,10,13,12,11,14,3,2,8,7,6,5,4,15

1,4,5,6,3,2,15,14,13,12,11,10,9,8,7

8,7,9,6,10,1,15,2,14,3,4,5,11,12,13

15,14,13,12,11,10,9,8,7,6,1,5,4,3,2

1,6,7,15,14,5,4,3,2,13,12,8,9,11,10

1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15

1,2,3,4,5,6,15,14,13,7,8,9,10,11,12

5,3,4,1,2,6,7,7,11,10,12,14,13,15,9

6,1,5,4,3,13,14,15,8,7,10,11,12,2,9

6,7,8,9,10,5,11,12,13,14,15,1,2,3,4

1,2,3,4,13,14,15,5,6,9,10,11,12,7,8

1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15

1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15

10,11,12,13,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,14,15

1,4,5,13,12,11,10,2,3,6,7,8,9,14,15 Greg I think this came up briefly last year and I cannot remember much about it but I thought it was a decent idea on the surface and you could still remain totally random.

If this were the main event why not give Team one above pick one in Las Vegas 1, and team 2 the number one pick in Las Vegas 2, team 5 the number one pick in Las Vegas 3 etc.

If the goal of KDS is to give the most people the picks they covet would this not work better? I would love to hear some opinions on it-

JEagle · Post by **JEagle** » Thu Jan 17, 2008 9:31 am

I did not receive an email invite

jared

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Thu Jan 17, 2008 9:32 am

Chest, it's a solid idea, but the elimination of random league assignments is not IMO very smart in a ~400 person contest.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Jan 17, 2008 9:33 am

Originally posted by JEagle:

I did not receive an email invite

jared Jared, check your junk or spam folder to make sure it didn't end up there by mistake. If it's not there, e-mail Geoff Stein at [email protected] and he'll get you hooked up.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Jan 17, 2008 9:53 am

Originally posted by King of Queens:

Chest, it's a solid idea, but the elimination of random league assignments is not IMO very smart in a ~400 person contest. Why is it not random? Not trying to argue the point here just want to make sure I clarify- In Vegas for example if you have 12 leagues you still use random selection to rank the guys KDS preferences 1 through 180 now instead of 1-15 randomly.

I am not sure I am sold on the idea either Glenn but I think it makes a good debate. The downsides to me are amount of work for Tom/Greg in a time in which time for them is tight, and the guys who get their 14th and 15th choice are at an even greater disadvantage in some folks eyes b/c they could end up in a league with 12 guys who are drafting from where they are most comfortable.

In the end though the goal of KDS is to get the most people where they want to be right? Does this not improve that?

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Jan 17, 2008 10:51 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by King of Queens:

Chest, it's a solid idea, but the elimination of random league assignments is not IMO very smart in a ~400 person contest. Why is it not random? Not trying to argue the point here just want to make sure I clarify- In Vegas for example if you have 12 leagues you still use random selection to rank the guys KDS preferences 1 through 180 now instead of 1-15 randomly.

I am not sure I am sold on the idea either Glenn but I think it makes a good debate. The downsides to me are amount of work for Tom/Greg in a time in which time for them is tight, and the guys who get their 14th and 15th choice are at an even greater disadvantage in some folks eyes b/c they could end up in a league with 12 guys who are drafting from where they are most comfortable.

In the end though the goal of KDS is to get the most people where they want to be right? Does this not improve that? [/QUOTE]I may be off on this...but if it was guessed that the WORST draft slot (or even slots) (based on a poll or Greg's revelations of KDS in satellites, or just word of mouth) was determined...and the elite at this competition felt that all spots were fair...

...they could all decide (collude?) to select their KDS in a way (picking the consensus "BEST" slots last, and "LEAST" desired first...that they could maximized their chances of being in separate leagues via your proposed idea.

Not sure if this idea passes scrutiny...but something to consider.

~Lance

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Jan 17, 2008 10:54 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by King of Queens:

Chest, it's a solid idea, but the elimination of random league assignments is not IMO very smart in a ~400 person contest. Why is it not random? Not trying to argue the point here just want to make sure I clarify- In Vegas for example if you have 12 leagues you still use random selection to rank the guys KDS preferences 1 through 180 now instead of 1-15 randomly.

I am not sure I am sold on the idea either Glenn but I think it makes a good debate. The downsides to me are amount of work for Tom/Greg in a time in which time for them is tight, and the guys who get their 14th and 15th choice are at an even greater disadvantage in some folks eyes b/c they could end up in a league with 12 guys who are drafting from where they are most comfortable.

In the end though the goal of KDS is to get the most people where they want to be right? Does this not improve that? [/QUOTE]I may be off on this...but if it was guessed that the WORST draft slot (or even slots) (based on a poll or Greg's revelations of KDS in satellites, or just word of mouth) was determined...and the elite at this competition felt that all spots were fair...

...they could all decide (collude?) to select their KDS in a way (picking the consensus "BEST" slots last, and "LEAST" desired first...that they could maximized their chances of being in separate leagues via your proposed idea.

Not sure if this idea passes scrutiny...but something to consider.

~Lance [/QUOTE]So under your scenario Gordon Gekko colludes with Dan Kenyon so they can be in the same league Lance- those guys for example are both great competitors but I like saying hi to them across the room not across the table on draft day.

For the 3rd time I would not call myself a proponent of this idea yet but I have not heard downside that I at least "think" I do not have an answer for.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Jan 17, 2008 10:56 am

"...that they could maximized their chances of being in SEPARATE leagues via your proposed idea."

~Lance

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Jan 17, 2008 10:57 am

I feel that WHO is in your league is the #1 hindrance or benefit to a players success.

(aside from skill and luck).

...and thus feel strongly about keeping how the leagues are assigned as random as possible.

~Lance

[ January 17, 2008, 05:01 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Thu Jan 17, 2008 11:02 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

"...that they could maximized their chances of being in SEPARATE leagues via your proposed idea."

~Lance I re- thought and you may be right. Hey everyone choose pick 13 so a lot of us will get it first. A long shot but worth considering. I would love to hear Greg's thoughts on this would not shock me if he has already given it some thought.

My other thought is it works better for NY and LV than OR and CH and it has to be uniform.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Jan 17, 2008 11:30 am

Kent, I'm not sure how your idea would solve much. After half of the owners get their preferences, all the most popular slots will be filled and half the owners will still only have minimal control over their picks. Whether you do it with 15 people or 180 I don't see how you avoid the same problem. Picks 14 and 15 of each league or picks 168 to 180 of everyone would still have the same kind of luck w/r/t picks. Also, I realize that you had a problem last year but it was fairly rare to get one of your bottom few preferences. Consider that no one else really complained about it. I'm sure you will have more luck this year.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Thu Jan 17, 2008 12:39 pm

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

"...that they could maximized their chances of being in SEPARATE leagues via your proposed idea."

~Lance I re- thought and you may be right. Hey everyone choose pick 13 so a lot of us will get it first. A long shot but worth considering. I would love to hear Greg's thoughts on this would not shock me if he has already given it some thought.

My other thought is it works better for NY and LV than OR and CH and it has to be uniform. [/QUOTE]Sorry for not responding sooner to explain. Yes, this is pretty much the reason why your suggestion poses a potential problem, particularly in the smaller cities. It's a remote possibility, but still notable.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Sat Jan 19, 2008 2:31 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

The KDS for this draft was among the best that I can ever remember doing. Many in this group had unique KDS preferences as they have solid strategies for where they want to draft. As a result, the average KDS was 3.7 -- amazingly high when in a random draft the average person gets a preference of 8 -- with 10 owners getting their first, second or third preference. Great job everyone in establishing your KDS and your draft strategy.

Here's some facts about this KDS:

** 4 owners got their first KDS preference

** 4 owners got their second KDS preference

** 2 owners got their third KDS preference

** The other five owners got preferences that ranged from 6 to 9. The lowest KDS was 9th. Pretty solid.

** Only three owners left their KDS at 1-15.

** No. 1 was the top preference from nine owners. No. 15 was the last preference of six owners.

Here were the 15 KDS preferences, not in any particular order:

1,9,10,13,12,11,14,3,2,8,7,6,5,4,15

1,4,5,6,3,2,15,14,13,12,11,10,9,8,7

8,7,9,6,10,1,15,2,14,3,4,5,11,12,13

15,14,13,12,11,10,9,8,7,6,1,5,4,3,2

1,6,7,15,14,5,4,3,2,13,12,8,9,11,10

1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15

1,2,3,4,5,6,15,14,13,7,8,9,10,11,12

5,3,4,1,2,6,7,7,11,10,12,14,13,15,9

6,1,5,4,3,13,14,15,8,7,10,11,12,2,9

6,7,8,9,10,5,11,12,13,14,15,1,2,3,4

1,2,3,4,13,14,15,5,6,9,10,11,12,7,8

1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15

1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15

10,11,12,13,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,14,15

1,4,5,13,12,11,10,2,3,6,7,8,9,14,15 I will admit that I trialed the KDS I am planning to use in the main. I ended up with one of the later choices for "favorite" position, but still am not unhappy with drafting 12th. As always, 10 through 12 are good first round "vulture" positions set to take advantage of whomever slipped. For example, I do not believe Phillips is first round material (he has been moving up in popularity in the early drafts and mocks) nor do I believe Santana is (many great minds disagree and while Santana will go in the first in many drafts, he seems to have been slipping back to the second with Peavy). I will not get a crack at Reyes, Ramirez, Wright, Rollins, or Pujols, but I will wager I will get a crack at one of my top 10 and maybe top 8, and then get a chance to pick off the second of my top 15 by having the fourth pick of the second round.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sat Jan 19, 2008 10:10 am

I like 12 this year for the same reason's you just mentioned.It seem's like a great selection of talent this year going into the 5th round.Last year it ended at the end of the 3rd round, i took my closer's at the end of the 3rd round or early 4th round last year , but this year closer's arent going until the 5th round.Funny how thing's change all the time.

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Sat Jan 19, 2008 10:46 am

I think different draft spots offer different advantages... depends if you want to get a top 2 catcher or not, or whether you want back-to-back picks (which I love), or who you think could fall to where... I really don't know yet which spots I prefer, but probably not like pick 3 for example.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sat Jan 19, 2008 10:50 am

I posted my comments via video on the upcoming magazine draft!!! Let me know what you think! Enjoy!

www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVFRhw-L1WQ

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Sat Jan 19, 2008 11:07 am

I think you should fire your lighting director Mark

Lunatic · Post by **Lunatic** » Sat Jan 19, 2008 11:48 am

The lighting seemed fine; nothing out of the ordinary; seems like a solid beginning, but like you said, that is just the 1st 10 rounds; I am sure you have a backup plan if things don't shake out that way; I expect this to be a very hard fought draft; I know I will have to be on my toes; what I really love is the prep of the REAL deal on 3/15. I am ready for 1/24.

TUNA · Post by **TUNA** » Sat Jan 19, 2008 12:14 pm

I WOULD LOVE TO BE INCLUDED IN ANY MOCK DRAFTS AS WELL

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sat Jan 19, 2008 12:42 pm

Gordon nice stuff, i had the number one pick in the childs draft so i was in the same spots you were considering.I did get Putz at 5 pick 1.

I could have taken M yOUNG and passed, after Young its a dropoff.Hardy in the 10th is to high for me . I also got Myers in the 8th .

Do you like Markakis more than Rios , have those two very close.I also agree about DICE K but he wasnt there in the 8th.Anyway's have a nice draft.

Sack · Post by **Sack** » Sat Jan 19, 2008 6:53 pm

Gekko: Enjoyed the video, we are on opposite ends of the draft board so the approach will be a bit different on this end.

Looking forward to Thursday, nice job.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Sun Jan 20, 2008 1:44 am

Originally posted by Less than Dave:

I think different draft spots offer different advantages... depends if you want to get a top 2 catcher or not, or whether you want back-to-back picks (which I love), or who you think could fall to where... I really don't know yet which spots I prefer, but probably not like pick 3 for example. Agreed. I am one of those, however, who dispute the relative advantage of taking the risky catcher position too early. The position has the highest risk of major/minor injury, fewer ABs, and the current top crop has limited offensive upside (i.e. no Piazza in his prime).

Sacrificing one of your top 8 or so picks on a catcher is like winning a race with a dozen eight-month pregnant women...you end up the best is what is probably a VERY weak field.

Therefore, picking at twelve could work into my strategy very well if most of the top tier catchers are going mid-late second to early-mid third. More power to them.

Sack · Post by **Sack** » Sun Jan 20, 2008 4:29 am

EK: We will know with GG second & third pick whether or not he was feeding us a bunch of bull. I agree with your point on the CATCHer.