NFBC Magazine II Draft Results

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 6:28 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Can someone tell me where I went wrong (if i did)in the first 10 rounds? Mother, you're up first... Guess I will go second although I admit Mark I don't think there is much wrong with your first ten picks. I agree with you on Markakis and Kendrick - if you like the upside those players offer, you have to draft them when you can.

The only problem I have with any of your first ten picks is in fact with Soto - there are tons of players who have destroyed PCL pitching and never delivered on that promise. Can you say Dan Johnson for a recent example? Anyway, here are my comments:

H. Ramirez - great start

Granderson - solid pick IF he still gets to run as much

Markakis - no problem - still more upside here

C. Pena - power is real although expect less than last year

Hamels - solid P1

Kendrick - no problem, potential is there and +Bavg

Street - not my choice for closer there but nothing wrong with it

Myers - solid P2 and since you can't get him in 10, no problem here

A. Gordon - I expect improvement; not huge breakout; solid and fills IF

G. Soto - this is the only pick in first ten that is a Real reach

9/10 is pretty damned good especially in a tough crowd and you drafted a very good start for the team - and had several good picks later (along with a few clunkers...)

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 7:10 am

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

The only problem I have with any of your first ten picks is in fact with Soto - there are tons of players who have destroyed PCL pitching and never delivered on that promise. Can you say Dan Johnson for a recent example?

9/10 is pretty damned good especially in a tough crowd and you drafted a very good start for the team - and had several good picks later (along with a few clunkers...) 1) Would soto be more appealing if triple-a pitching steamrolled him? Heck no. Even drafted in the 10th round, soto provides additional upside.

2) I thought I heard a "clunking" sound when I drove into work. Who were the clunkers (signed, a perplexed gekko)?

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 7:26 am

2 thoughts i had/have on soto: 1)yes the iowa cubs have many guys hitting really well- pie hit .362 and cedeno .359 and there are others; however, when they were called up- they stunk. soto kept right on hitting. 2) he has been in tripple A for 3 seasons with decent #'s and then exploded. whenever i see that - i think steroids or maybe hgh. no way i believe the major leagues are serious about ridding players of steroids- they are still "don't ask don't tell". the cubs are one organization that was always about the $. sosa was just ridiculousa and the fans and media loved it- until ryne sandburg called them ALL on it in his hall acceptance speach. to me- if soto was on something and stays on it- i think he has a great year. if he wasn't- i think he has a great year. if he was- and stops- bad year. 67% chance of being a good pick in my book.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:49 am

Interesting way of phrasing it...the 67% chance line.

In your mind, is Soto a 67% good pick in the 10th round and even better with each coming round? Or is it a straight 67% chance of being a good pick?

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 9:25 am

if he was the 3rd option- he will obviously not only revert back to 2006 trip A stats- but fall below them. since i haven't done this for long- and i am not going to research it- have you ever seen that before? i mean the whole stat line is a crazy increase. the one i remember was the second basemen- was it brady anderson. marcus giles was a little like this but not all the way. this guy went 9-270 in 2A to 4 .250 in 3A (adjustment?) to 9 270 in 3A ( now adjusted he is back to 2A level of production) to crazy #'s. he had 2 years of 3A- in a hitters league- like hook said. i guess no matter what he does- i won't be surprised. sometimes i do get surprised. andrew jones really surprised me last year. just plain choked in a contact year and his team in the race. seems like a guy that cares and not a flake- just was awfull.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 9:38 am

Originally posted by headhunters:

andrew jones really surprised me last year. just plain choked in a contact year and his team in the race. seems like a guy that cares and not a flake- just was awfull. Is there a Gold Club in L.A.?

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 9:47 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by headhunters:

andrew jones really surprised me last year. just plain choked in a contact year and his team in the race. seems like a guy that cares and not a flake- just was awfull. Is there a Gold Club in L.A.? [/QUOTE]PLENTY of "Gentlemen's Clubs" as well as a number of "private" (almost) clubs where celebrities hang - maybe Andruw can meet Paris

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 9:52 am

hook- a rod goes to those too- how did he do. you are gonna have to do better than that.

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 9:53 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by GOD Loves You:

1. Markakis

2. Kendrick

I like em both, but not where you took them. There's no way Kendrick returns 6th round value, but if you want him, take him.

Same with Markakis, no way he performs the way he should getting selected that high.

3. Soto, he will be the BIGGEST disappointment on your team due to where you took him. Do you really think he even hits close to 300??

Other than these, I like your first 10 and other than Soto, I would be more than happy to have them on my team....actually a few are my target players.

I like your offense, but think your pitching staff is going to break your heart. To many risks with little upside IMO. I know a lot of people see upside, but I don't. If there's one thing I know, it's pitching. And you know you can manicure a pitching staff. 1. Hate to break it to you...markakis will go mid third round or earlier in EVERY draft. If you like him, you have to take him exactly where I did.

2. Soto didn't just dominate in his short ML audition. He steamrolled triple a pitching the WHOLE year. Lot more legit in my mind. I'll take a .290 avg and 18+ homeruns from him.

3. You may think you know pitching, (and no disrespect intended) but I KNOW pitching. Saunders, volquez, and the SD starter (prior or germano) are ALL good plays where I got them. [/QUOTE]Just because a player is drafted in a certain round doesn't mean anything....aka, Wells/Dye from last season. Those might be bad examples due to where they were on career path, but you get the drift. I love Markakis. I think I was one of the first people to acquire him in the NFBC..I know because I was shocked more people didn't bid on him the first week of free agency 2 years ago. I guess those in the main do know more than the satellite players . If it weren't for that Oriole lineup, I'm on board with the pick.....I just don't see him improving on any numbers, a decline is to come IMO.

You could've gotten Soto stats at the end of the draft, if not on the waiver wire. There's no way he comes close to what you're expecting.....it's a lot different calling games for the entire season.

And I don't even have a problem with the pitchers you mentioned, it's the ones not mentioned. I like Saunders, even though I think Ervin is going to break out this season

. Same with Volquez, even though I think Cueto is going to break out. Prior, who knows and same with Germano. Both posess good upside and if they don't pan out, you didn't pay much. Again, it's those other guys.

We shall see who knows pitching when the main comes around. Plan to see GLY near the top of all pitching cats.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 10:14 am

gly- you have a .33% chance of being right on soto- but not for the reason stated. calling games for a year did not hinder mccann, martin and others. 1/2 the cubs staff was in 3A anyhow. i know it is probably an adjustment- but others have done it.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 11:08 am

Originally posted by headhunters:

calling games for a year did not hinder mccann, martin and others. Hunter - why interject reason in the arguement? GLY was doing fine with his conjecture. I guess he thinks all first year catchers are destined to fail. Mmmmmuuuuhahahaha!!

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 11:11 am

btw gg- looks like you just added a starting outfielder and many sb's to your former team.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 11:17 am

Originally posted by headhunters:

btw gg- looks like you just added a starting outfielder and many sb's to your former team. if true...that's called JACKPOT!!!! ya boy!!! in addition, once rasmus gets the starting gig and baldelli is healthy (to start the season at least) i will be proven for the genius i am. all will bow before me. (i hate to go muuhahah...two times in a single thread but this news deserves it). MMMUUUHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!!

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 11:19 am

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:

If it weren't for that Oriole lineup, I'm on board with the pick.....I just don't see him improving on any numbers, a decline is to come IMO.

well then the truth comes out...you do NOT love markakis for fantasy purposes this year. you may love him, but that's betwen you and him. i'm strickly talking fantasy baseball here

bluenose · Post by **bluenose** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 12:03 pm

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

[PLENTY of "Gentlemen's Clubs" as well as a number of private (almost) clubs where celebrities hang - maybe Andruw can meet Paris

Andruw Jones is from Curacao and he would always go back there in the off season. I lived there for six years. Andruw is the absolute anti-Bonds. He's a wonderful human being and he gives a lot back to the Island. I was born after Roberto Clemente died but when people write of Clemente's good deeds, I picture Andruw. He's a real role model to kids on an iland with a lot of unemployment and allegedly "easy" money in the illicit drug trade.

The thing is, prostitution is pretty much legal there. Sure, the cops raid the brothel out by the airport, but only to deport the Colombian girls. Gotta protect the local girls. Trade protectionism knows no bounds.

So when the Gold Club trial was on, the headlines in Curacao were, by N. American standards, a little weird. While the NY papers decried the sex acts performed on Starks or Ewing, the LA papers went bananas about this guy or that guy, and so on, the Curacao headlines read like:

"Andruw says Gold Club is Fun, but Expensive"

"Andruw tells of Golden times at great Gold Club"

"Local Bordello Could Learn From America"

"Sex More Expensive in USA than Here"

I still have a couple of the clippings. As we say in the local language there, "Hopi Bon!"

--B

mother · Post by **mother** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 12:52 pm

GG, you know you had a solid first 10. Although in looking over your entire draft, I'm guessing that rookies score bonus points in this league somehow...?

Robo, I like your pitching staff and outfield (Shandler recently predicted a big Frenchie breakout this year), but that infield--yikes!

[ January 29, 2008, 06:58 PM: Message edited by: mother ]

freddiezee · Post by **freddiezee** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 1:41 pm

The biggest impression this draft left on me, which has no relation to Gekko's team (I'm not sure if we're allowed to make comments on this board that aren't related to Gekko's team, but I am going to try anyways), is how late pitchers went, both starting and closers.

If you compare where closers went in this draft to where they have gone in the main event over the past three years, you'll see that they went much later this time and in the first magazine league. I don't know if that will continue into the main event.....it is one thing to risk saves in the magazine league and another thing to risk them in the main event. I have a hunch that a lot of those guys will creep up the charts a little once there is more money on the line.

There were a lot of starters available in the 5-7 round range who are really good pitchers. I like the value of where Santana, Peavy and Bedard went for their owners, but when you see where Webb, Verlander, Sabathia etc. went you start to wonder if those owners who drafted a top three pitcher should have waited.

I'm sure we'll all be very interested in the satellite ADP's that Greg and Tom will be sending out in late February-early March to see if these trends continue.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 1:47 pm

Originally posted by freddiezee:

I'm not sure if we're allowed to make comments on this board that aren't related to Gekko's team, but I am going to try anywaysYou can comment on my stellar effort, too!

Always good to get that first draft out of the way. I think I know exactly what I did wrong and how to correct it.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 1:50 pm

Originally posted by bluenose:

Andruw Jones is from Curacao and he would always go back there in the off season. I lived there for six years. I've always wondered two things about Curacao:

(1) Is "Andruw" the common spelling of "Andrew" in Curacao?

(2) Is Blue Curacao the national beverage?

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 2:16 pm

GG, here's what I think.. and I hope you merely take this as constructive criticism, although I think you will write it off coming from me.. anyways, here it is:

H. Ramirez - I hate the #2 pick, but if I had it, I'd take Hanley, so good pick.

Granderson - Love Granderson even more this year, as long as they let him keep running...

Markakis - I don't like Markakis nearly as much as you do (especially after Tejada was traded), but your first 3 picks all deliver HR AND SB.. so it's a sweet trio to have on your team.. very balanced and gives you the ability to do more later in the draft I think

C. Pena - I think he hits 40 HR with a .270 ish avg, but maybe even higher since he learned to walk last year.. I like it

Hamels - He's a top 10 SP by talent, but I wouldn't draft him because he has a long history of arm injuries, and in the NFBC in a 15-team league, it's better to not take risks on big players since you really can't replace them... I don't like this pick.

Kendrick - Don't like this pick at all.. yeah, he tore up the minors, but didn't show ANYTHING in the majors and probably won't be hitting in a favorable spot in the lineup... who knows, maybe he breaks out, but I don't think he showed enough to warrant a 6th round pick, especially with all the 2B talent this year

Street - I like Street a lot, but like Hamels I worry about him getting injured (though not nearly as much)... if not though then it's fine

Myers - He's solid.. I probably would have taken someone else here though so I'm not high on this pick

A. Gordon - Never had that big breakthrough at any point last season (I drafted him in the 8th round I believe

) and I doubt hitting 7th with Buck and Pena behind him will help. I expect him to get better, but not enough to justify this pick

G. Soto - Too many busts from young catchers who tear up the minors to warrant this I think... and where did that breakout come from? He attributes it to the "power of positive thinking".. I attribute it to the power of substance abuse.. but anyways, I'd rather take Towles 4 rounds later or so... too many very good players left in the 10th round I think, but catchers are extremely difficult to find so you don't wanna get burned there

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 3:10 pm

Originally posted by Less than Dave:

GG, here's what I think.. and I hope you merely take this as constructive criticism, although I think you will write it off coming from me.. anyways, here it is:

H. Ramirez - I hate the #2 pick, but if I had it, I'd take Hanley, so good pick.

Granderson - Love Granderson even more this year, as long as they let him keep running...

Markakis - I don't like Markakis nearly as much as you do (especially after Tejada was traded), but your first 3 picks all deliver HR AND SB.. so it's a sweet trio to have on your team.. very balanced and gives you the ability to do more later in the draft I think

C. Pena - I think he hits 40 HR with a .270 ish avg, but maybe even higher since he learned to walk last year.. I like it

Hamels - He's a top 10 SP by talent, but I wouldn't draft him because he has a long history of arm injuries, and in the NFBC in a 15-team league, it's better to not take risks on big players since you really can't replace them... I don't like this pick.

Kendrick - Don't like this pick at all.. yeah, he tore up the minors, but didn't show ANYTHING in the majors and probably won't be hitting in a favorable spot in the lineup... who knows, maybe he breaks out, but I don't think he showed enough to warrant a 6th round pick, especially with all the 2B talent this year

Street - I like Street a lot, but like Hamels I worry about him getting injured (though not nearly as much)... if not though then it's fine

Myers - He's solid.. I probably would have taken someone else here though so I'm not high on this pick

A. Gordon - Never had that big breakthrough at any point last season (I drafted him in the 8th round I believe

) and I doubt hitting 7th with Buck and Pena behind him will help. I expect him to get better, but not enough to justify this pick

G. Soto - Too many busts from young catchers who tear up the minors to warrant this I think... and where did that breakout come from? He attributes it to the "power of positive thinking".. I attribute it to the power of substance abuse.. but anyways, I'd rather take Towles 4 rounds later or so... too many very good players left in the 10th round I think, but catchers are extremely difficult to find so you don't wanna get burned there less than...you make some good points. btw, i try to take everything constructively.

hamels is top 5 SP when it comes to pure stuff, but you have to factor in his healthy and that knocks him down some. risky pick (almost any pitcher is), but while he is healthy, he'll return top 5 numbers.

soto - i picked him at 10.14, ya, a little earlier than his adp, but who cares. the other catchers being taken after him aren't givens either. at least soto has proven he can whomp some ass.

[ January 29, 2008, 09:14 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 5:34 pm

I'd say Pena or Granderson was your best pick.. good luck to ya

bluenose · Post by **bluenose** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 11:13 pm

Originally posted by King of Queens:

quote:Originally posted by bluenose:

Andruw Jones is from Curacao and he would always go back there in the off season. I lived there for six years. I've always wondered two things about Curacao:

(1) Is "Andruw" the common spelling of "Andrew" in Curacao?

(2) Is Blue Curacao the national beverage? [/QUOTE]1A) There is no formal written language. When you write stuff down you write it phonetically and that's good enough. (No spelling tests in school.) So "Curacao", "Korsow", and "Korsou" are all used interchangeably on paper and everybody knows what you mean. Legal, medical, accountancy (etc.) documents are not written in the local tongue (Papiamentu) but are in Dutch instead.

1B) To give a child an unusual spelling of a name, or a unique name, is to bestow an honour on the child. It affirms the child's uniqueness in the world.

1C) Another high honour is to name the child by taking the first few letters of the father's name and the first few letters of the woman's name, jumble them together to make something pronounceable, and using that. This way the child will always know he has family to love him.

2A) Curacao the drink comes from the island. When the Spanish came they tried to plant oranges. The soil was too acidic and the oranges were sour. So they said "screw it, let's ferment this stuff." Curacao the liqueur is the result.

2B) Curacao the drink is strictly for the tourists. Locals won't touch it. Locals prefer the local beer (Bright, which is pretty good) or imported hard stuff.

freddiezee · Post by **freddiezee** » Tue Jan 29, 2008 11:54 pm

how high would Santana have gone if the draft was held this Thursday instead of last Thursday?

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Jan 30, 2008 12:32 am

Originally posted by freddiezee:

how high would Santana have gone if the draft was held this Thursday instead of last Thursday? First Round...say 10th or 11th. I would not have taken him at 12, but I was working on a pretty fixed draft strategy. If I passed on him, I doubt he would have made it past the turn.