Time For Live Chats?

Cowboy Joe · Post by **Cowboy Joe** » Fri Feb 01, 2008 10:22 am

Lance,

Where were you when I needed someone to take notes for me in science class?

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Fri Feb 01, 2008 10:24 am

Originally posted by headhunters:

as a former gambler i can tell you there really isn't a law of averages- never bet against the streak. betting against the childs record would be like betting against tiger woods. although injuries can stop anyone. I wish I had 1% of Tiger's money!

I'm sure if I stumble this year, Dan will be at the front of line to drive the bus. He might have to fight Terry for the steering wheel.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Fri Feb 01, 2008 11:51 am

Question for both Shawn and Dan...

I see you both stumbled in 2006. (88th and 106th or so)

You both were excellent in 2005 and 2007.

Any reason you recall for an off year in 2006?

~Lance

(Note...those guys ranked higher than you in the lifetime standings have some impressive records...but one mediocre year seems to have too much of a negative impact in that ranking system the NFBC uses for my blood.)

[ February 01, 2008, 05:52 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Fri Feb 01, 2008 12:16 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Question for both Shawn and Dan...

I see you both stumbled in 2006. (88th and 106th or so)

You both were excellent in 2005 and 2007.

Any reason you recall for an off year in 2006?

~Lance

(Note...those guys ranked higher than you in the lifetime standings have some impressive records...but one mediocre year seems to have too much of a negative impact in that ranking system the NFBC uses for my blood.) Well Lance I think 2006 was my best year in the NFBC.

In the main event I was in 312 place after 5 weeks. My piching was horrible. I honestly believe I made a few bad managerial that season in the main event.

1-I cut Scott OLsen after a bad two start week in April after he walked 6 batters in a game. I liked his arm, but I was impatient becuase my pitching was so bad early. I kept that Stud Eric Milton.

2-I cut Ian Snell early in the year when he started off bad. Someone else dropped him and I picked him up again. He had a double start week with one game in Colorado. I was afraid to pitch him that week so dropped him again. He had 10 k's in Colorado and pitched great in the other start. I couldn't get him back again.

3-I had Jason Kubel and Mike Cuddyer on my team. I thought one of them would start for Minn. I cut Cuddyer and kept Kubel. The next week Cuddyer caught fire and played well for the rest of the year. I had both of them in the Ultimate that year, but I kept Cuudyer one more week. I played him every week the rest of the year. He help me make a run at the title.

4-I could have held onto all of those players if I didn't try to keep BJ Upton and Delmon Young on my team. Both were in the minors. All I had to do is drop one of them.

After falling to 312 place overall, I made a steady climb to 15th overall in the middle of August. I was in first place in my league for 2 and half months. I lost Liriano, Mussina, Papelbon, and Street from my pitching staff. I couldn't replace all of those players. I hung around for a couple of weeks, but I tried to wheel out some double starters. They pitched poorly and I faded to fifth in my league.

[ February 01, 2008, 06:42 PM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Fri Feb 01, 2008 12:50 pm

Very solid analysis, Shawn.

I agree...that was very impressive to go from 312 to 15th in AUG.

~Lance

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sat Feb 02, 2008 2:27 am

Shwan was 2006 the year of your man crush on Oliver Perez.If i remember the 8th round in the ultimate and you grabbed him in the main that year.He finally showed that upside last year and i missed out on him.His control just has been too brutal for me with 70 walks in 103 innings in 2005,and a 1.67 whip.Then 2006 a 1.75 whip, that was enough for me as i drafted him in 2006 in the 14th round.Last year is the 1st time since his monster season in 2004 that he had a decent whip [1.31] .For those that took a chance on him last year great job.He's back on my radar.

What round did Perez go last year , i cant remember.Perez went in the 12th round in the Childs classic a few weeks back, not bad value.

Perez is just 26 years old and on the right team for win's.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Feb 02, 2008 3:47 am

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Shwan was 2006 the year of your man crush on Oliver Perez.If i remember the 8th round in the ultimate and you grabbed him in the main that year.He finally showed that upside last year and i missed out on him.His control just has been too brutal for me with 70 walks in 103 innings in 2005,and a 1.67 whip.Then 2006 a 1.75 whip, that was enough for me as i drafted him in 2006 in the 14th round.Last year is the 1st time since his monster season in 2004 that he had a decent whip [1.31] .For those that took a chance on him last year great job.He's back on my radar.

What round did Perez go last year , i cant remember.Perez went in the 12th round in the Childs classic a few weeks back, not bad value.

Perez is just 26 years old and on the right team for win's. I took Perez in the 9th in the main and 13 in the Ultimate in 2006. Last year I took him in the 19th in both events.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Feb 02, 2008 3:49 am

Lance, I wish I had the specific recollections that Shawn had.

Like Shawn, I thought my best managing job came in '06. But also my worst draft. My draft strategy backfired almost immediately and I thought my team would finish in the 200's, not 88th.

Picking 15, I decided to go "positional" and took Michael Young and Figgins who was eligible at 2b, 3b, and of. The next turn I was poised to take my power guy and ace. That went out the window when Grady Sizemore fell all the way to the bottom of three and I took the "value play" instead of my power guy.

The rest of the year I chased hr's and rbi while my batting average took more and more of the hit with each Marcus Thames off the faab pile. By the end of the year my team was close to 300 of 330 in hr and rbi and 320th in batting average.

The pitching side was gold, every move and draft pick exceeded expectations. But no matter how dominant one phase of a team is, overcoming bottomfeeding in three categories is impossible.

Balance is key.

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:13 am

I don't know if they would be interseted, but I would like to hear from Dan Kenyon and the guys from Stevieland. Those guys and Shawn would be of prime interest for me.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:22 am

Originally posted by Vander:

I don't know if they would be interseted, but I would like to hear from Dan Kenyon and the guys from Stevieland. Those guys and Shawn would be of prime interest for me. I drove through the whole town of Bellingham on Thursday. I couldn't find Andrew Nolan anywhere. I think he is hiding out!

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Sat Feb 02, 2008 12:12 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Vander:

I don't know if they would be interseted, but I would like to hear from Dan Kenyon and the guys from Stevieland. Those guys and Shawn would be of prime interest for me. I drove through the whole town of Bellingham on Thursday. I couldn't find Andrew Nolan anywhere. I think he is hiding out! [/QUOTE]You however have been surprisingly frank. I'm not sure why, but I find it the best baseball stuff around. I see no hint of misinformation. It's understood you won't draft exactly how you have players listed on site. I could be wrong and certainly don't mean to start anything, but I am certain in my own mind (for what it's worth) GG purposely didn't take players he really likes in the mag draft. I guess we'll see come draft day. Thanks for the valuable info you have provided. I do think this will make it harder on yourself though. I've noticed particular players styling their teams just as you have suggested on mdc. Taking your advice word for word. While it helps me to get info from you it also makes it much harder than it was to compile the team (with the totals you suggest) that I wanted. With everybody doing the same thing, including me since I've been trying to do the same as you in past years, it's going to be that much harder. The rp's and Judy's have dropped much lower than ever before in nfbc, with the guys I like going up the draft ladder. Maybe this year somebody devises a unique strategy and wins by taking advantage of this somehow. There's something for you to work on GG.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sat Feb 02, 2008 1:03 pm

Originally posted by Vander:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Vander:

I don't know if they would be interseted, but I would like to hear from Dan Kenyon and the guys from Stevieland. Those guys and Shawn would be of prime interest for me. I drove through the whole town of Bellingham on Thursday. I couldn't find Andrew Nolan anywhere. I think he is hiding out! [/QUOTE]You however have been surprisingly frank. I'm not sure why, but I find it the best baseball stuff around. I see no hint of misinformation. It's understood you won't draft exactly how you have players listed on site. I could be wrong and certainly don't mean to start anything, but I am certain in my own mind (for what it's worth) GG purposely didn't take players he really likes in the mag draft. I guess we'll see come draft day. Thanks for the valuable info you have provided. I do think this will make it harder on yourself though. I've noticed particular players styling their teams just as you have suggested on mdc. Taking your advice word for word. While it helps me to get info from you it also makes it much harder than it was to compile the team (with the totals you suggest) that I wanted. With everybody doing the same thing, including me since I've been trying to do the same as you in past years, it's going to be that much harder. The rp's and Judy's have dropped much lower than ever before in nfbc, with the guys I like going up the draft ladder. Maybe this year somebody devises a unique strategy and wins by taking advantage of this somehow. There's something for you to work on GG. [/QUOTE]childs is giving away pieces of what's helped make him successful. hopefully it is worth it to him to give away such valuable info. i don't think he's given away his farm (yet), but i wouldn't be surpised to see a bunch of childs clones on draft day. this CAN'T be good for HIM.

as for me, while i've been honest on the boards, i'm not gonna tell you guys how to beat ME. that doesn't make any sense. perhaps childs can overcome it, but i think he's making HIS margin for error VERY small.

Plymouth · Post by **Plymouth** » Sat Feb 02, 2008 5:05 pm

I am not so sure that sharing this information hurts Shawn at all. Shawn is a very good player, he will always win more then his share of time. He did a great job rating the top 15 players in each position but like he said himself, he did this in October and a lot has changed since that time. Most of the players here can rate the top 15 players, give or take, in each position but a lot of us can't see the forest for the trees. Shawn knows what players he would like to have on his team but I think what makes Shawn so consistently good is his ability to anticipate and draft the guys that are going to have that "good" or career year. You are not going to get the top rated guy at each position. This is a funny game and in some ways just like the stock market. Traders and most of the general public are always chasing the hot stock but by the time the average person knows about it, it has peaked or will peak very shortly. Fantasy players are always chasing the guys that were good last year and staying away from guys that disappointed them the year before, it is the nature of the beast. Many players, even the stars have down seasons, so the trick is to avoid dem bums. But how?, is the question and many of us obviously don't and we end up paying the price with a team that we are convinced under performed. I can't tell you how many times I would tell my wife that I just can't believe how bad these slugs are playing this year. Hell, look at their numbers from last year and now this crap.....

To be the consistent winner, you need to see the big picture and be able to react to the draft as it unfolds in front of you. It is not so much the player ratings or the numbers that you need to achieve, it is the ability to execute your plan in the thick of the action and to take advantage of any momentary "brain farts" that many of us encounter during the several hours that the draft takes. We have all seen a player taken that we said, "how could I have missed taking him"?

Just like the old Green Bay sweeps used to be, you know they were coming but you could not stop them. It is all about execution baby.........

Me, I just play cause I love the game and I figure that even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Feb 02, 2008 5:12 pm

Seeing how you are talking about players like they are stocks, I did this last week. I'm sure you would have read it soon anyways.

As the 2008 season approaches, many fantasy baseball players are looking for projections. Maybe you are even looking here for them. I’m sure as we grow we will have someone who wants to put their name on them. As for me, I read them, but I don’t care about them. I think a read somewhere that best projection are right 70% of the time for hitters and less than 50% for pitchers. When I think about this, does it mean they get 7 out 10 batters right? Or does it mean they get 70 % of a player’s categories right? For a pitcher, do they get the wins and strikeouts right more often than era and whip?

It is of my opinion that the more advanced a fantasy baseball player is: the more confident he is at coming up with his own opinions. If you are putting up your money to play, you have an opinion. I’m sure you will read everything in sight to formulate your own reasons for liking or not liking a player. Everyone has someone they trust the most. Maybe you have had past success with a player or are looking for a player who fits a certain profile to fit your game plan. For whatever the reason, when it is game time, you will draft players you like the most.

When I look at this year player inventory, I try to find where players will continue to improve and avoid them where I think they will decline. I don’t run a program and say Matt Holliday is going to bat .337 with 39 homeruns and 127 RBI. To me Matt Holliday is a solid .300 hitter who could hit 30+ homeruns and drive in over a 100 runs. He could even steal a few bags. He has built a history of success, but there will be a season where he will decline in some areas. The Rockies look to be an up and coming team which should only enhance his value. Do I think he bat .340 this year? No. Would I be surprised if he did? No. In my game plan that number isn’t important. I have him penciled in for .300. Anything over that is a bonus. The same goes for all of his other categories. Would I take him mid first round? Yes. If I did, I would expect him to beat my expectations. Another player who had a great year was Carlos Pena. I’m sure there will many people who will be doing cartwheels on draft day when that draft him in the 4th round. They will have him down for 40+ homeruns. Carlos had a great year. I’m sure he had a good thought process going the whole second half of 2007, but so much of this game is mental. After a career year, I have to think there will be some regression. The few projection I’ve seen have him down for .260 something with 30/100 numbers. Could he repeat 2007? Sure. Am I drafting him in the 4th round? Never! He has talent, but I see better 1st baseman getting drafted after him with less downside risk. Carlos is a .260/.270 hitter with 25+ homeruns power who is going to get the clean up job in Tampa. If you draft him on projections, you might be in for a long year.

Each year I am always looking for that player who goes from 15/60 to 30/100. I think back to Jeff Kent in 1996 or even Travis Hafner in 2003. These player flashed talent, but all they needed was full time at bats in a favorable spot in the batting order. Maybe someone’s projections will show a bump in stats, but you will need to be able see these opportunities before they happen. I would say almost everyone who plays in high stakes games knows which players have the most talent, but we don’t know which year those players will put it together and reach their potential. There will be some who will never reach it.

As you look at this year’s projections, use them to formulate your own opinions. Look at them like buying a prospective stock investment. You need to beware of the ones everyone loves. If you bite, you must be convinced there is more in the tank. There will be some nice investment on players who are trending up. They will have shown slight gains, but they could pop with the right opportunity. Then there will be group of new start ups. Some will hit the ground running and other will need to time to develop. There could be a few who look like they are about to go under, but at the right price they are worth the investment. If you don’t do you homework, you will invest in last year hot investments or this year’s hot projections a combo that doesn’t have a high rate of success. You need to evaluate player fairly and invest in them wisely to have consistent success.

[ February 02, 2008, 11:21 PM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]

Plymouth · Post by **Plymouth** » Sat Feb 02, 2008 5:22 pm

I could not agree more. The devil is again in the details, who gets better, who has hit a plateau and who is going to go over the edge?

We all think of ourselves as good players, just like we all think we can play poker well, but when all is said and done, there are a lot of us here that are nothing more then "legends in our own minds". All the work, all the stress, and we come back and want more.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Feb 02, 2008 5:31 pm

Originally posted by Plymouth:

I could not agree more. The devil is again in the details, who gets better, who has hit a plateau and who is going to go over the edge?

We all think of ourselves as good players, just like we all think we can play poker well, but when all is said and done, there are a lot of us here that are nothing more then "legends in our own minds". All the work, all the stress, and we come back and want more. I do think the Twins are better than people think.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Sat Feb 02, 2008 6:10 pm

Well said Mr. Childs...

While there might be more clones, they won't understand the scope and depth you take this to that is truly needed at the end of the day.

I laugh at all the "sleeper protection" stuff here every year. Each draft is so different that there isn't a guarantee of getting that guy even if you did want him.

I'd wager that only 100 at most read the MB on a DAILY basis, meaning 60-70% will never see who you are trying to protect, and why do you think we really care who your sleeper is when we've done our own research and have our own anyways?

Way too much emphasis is put on the draft and not nearly enough on in season strategy. I see Childs talking in those terms and that only backs up in my mind what separates the top from the rest. My favorite days in Vegas are hangin' with Childs, Thomas and the like and playing Mr.Sponge.

Childs sharing of info means everyone gets a little better, more people enter, prizes get larger, and he knows he has a better chance to win them.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Feb 02, 2008 7:07 pm

I agree with Zoleski (for a change). Shawn hasn't given up much. I have more on the profile I did based on his drafts and 2007 season than he has given up in the writing I've read. His stuff is good and useful, but 300 people aren't reading a paragraph somewhere that is basically how to win the Childs way. It's more complicated than cloning (see Zeppelin vs. Leopard).

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Sat Feb 02, 2008 7:38 pm

I give Shawn Child's a lot of respect.

...and I'll mention his name when I win the NFBC title this season.

GG is 70% misinformation.

The 30% you're not sure about...he claims as his great calls if they pan out...or he dismisses them as misinformation if they fail.

Dan is smart enough to aid his "confidants"...yet keep things tightly wrapped...after all...there is $100,000.00 on the line.

Shawn has a full load of confidence.

He believes that he can either

A) Give you his tried and true recipe for success...and beat your dumb ass at the game.

or

B) Give you a game plan he hopes you adopt...to exploit.

The more I hear "HEY...Shawn and JohnZ know you fool kids cannot fathom this level of player evaluation...so the system will fail in the arms of babes." ...the more I wish to prove you dead wrong.

Your aid is greatly appreciated.

Your view that your competition is too stupid to bridge the gap you leave...will be your downfall.

~Lance

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Sat Feb 02, 2008 7:40 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

I agree with Zoleski (for a change). Shawn hasn't given up much. I have more on the profile I did based on his drafts and 2007 season than he has given up in the writing I've read. His stuff is good and useful, but 300 people aren't reading a paragraph somewhere that is basically how to win the Childs way. It's more complicated than cloning (see Zeppelin vs. Leopard). Thanks... Although much can be learned from studying drafts, I'd wager more would be learned from how the top guys manage every aspect of their team(s) during the season.

I get more out of looking at Shawn's FAAB bids and strategy than I do his draft, which is the viewpoint I have commishing about 1000 teams each year...

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Sat Feb 02, 2008 7:46 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

The more I hear "HEY...Shawn and JohnZ know you fool kids cannot fathom this level of player evaluation...so the system will fail in the arms of babes." ...the more I wish to prove you dead wrong.

~Lance Lance, "fathom" is not the correct word there...

It's more like I could never be the drinker you are either, but I certainly can try!! LOL

This is like the WPT now... Five years in, some heads are shining nicely above the crowd, and the rest of us strive to get there... Doesn't mean they can't be beat... My only claim to fame here is that I did beat Shaun in a mid-season league for $8k. Not much, but I'll take it.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Sat Feb 02, 2008 8:04 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

GG is 70% misinformation.These % labels being placed on others isn't right...

GG finished #5 last year. Major kudos there and there are many ways to skin the cat, which is why this is so fun.

Even if there is misinformation, GG has finally understood (started last year at this time) that he to can win more money in the long run by doing

the positive things he's been doing on the MB to grow the event.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 1:00 am

Originally posted by UFS:

GG finished #5 last year. Major kudos there and there are many ways to skin the cat, which is why this is so fun.

yes there is. while i agree with some of the things shawn has posted, there are some cases in which i don't and if the "reader" follows his advice "word for word" it will do more harm than good IMO. the "readers" will find out for themselves which things i'm talking about. as zaleski said, you also need the understanding of the scope and depth.

[ February 03, 2008, 07:05 AM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 1:04 am

Originally posted by UFS:

Childs sharing of info means everyone gets a little better, more people enter, prizes get larger, and he knows he has a better chance to win them. it's a zero sum game. everyone can't get a little better. if you get better, it's at someone else's expense. let's not forget that.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 2:01 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

it's a zero sum game. everyone can't get a little better. if you get better, it's at someone else's expense. let's not forget that. You have placed better than I have, but in my opinion, it is not a zero sum game. A zero sum game assumes a fixed "volume" of competency. To me, I think the level of competition has actually increased even though we are on the (knocking on wood, Greg and Tom) verge of doubling the Main Event participation.

I think the new players who are entering the Main Event bring more to the table. I sure have learned from some of them as I have learned from Shawn, Kent, Dave Clum, Lance Goebel, Coops, and dozens of others whom I have played against as well as many of the other posters here.

I think the available "volume" has increased and hopefully I have risen with it. I think most folks have. There will be always winners and losers, but we can all be better without having it come at the expense of others.