Time For Live Chats?

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 2:55 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Seeing how you are talking about players like they are stocks, I did this last week. I'm sure you would have read it soon anyways.

As the 2008 season approaches, many fantasy baseball players are looking for projections. Maybe you are even looking here for them. I’m sure as we grow we will have someone who wants to put their name on them. As for me, I read them, but I don’t care about them. I think a read somewhere that best projection are right 70% of the time for hitters and less than 50% for pitchers. When I think about this, does it mean they get 7 out 10 batters right? Or does it mean they get 70 % of a player’s categories right? For a pitcher, do they get the wins and strikeouts right more often than era and whip?

It is of my opinion that the more advanced a fantasy baseball player is: the more confident he is at coming up with his own opinions. If you are putting up your money to play, you have an opinion. I’m sure you will read everything in sight to formulate your own reasons for liking or not liking a player. Everyone has someone they trust the most. Maybe you have had past success with a player or are looking for a player who fits a certain profile to fit your game plan. For whatever the reason, when it is game time, you will draft players you like the most.

When I look at this year player inventory, I try to find where players will continue to improve and avoid them where I think they will decline. I don’t run a program and say Matt Holliday is going to bat .337 with 39 homeruns and 127 RBI. To me Matt Holliday is a solid .300 hitter who could hit 30+ homeruns and drive in over a 100 runs. He could even steal a few bags. He has built a history of success, but there will be a season where he will decline in some areas. The Rockies look to be an up and coming team which should only enhance his value. Do I think he bat .340 this year? No. Would I be surprised if he did? No. In my game plan that number isn’t important. I have him penciled in for .300. Anything over that is a bonus. The same goes for all of his other categories. Would I take him mid first round? Yes. If I did, I would expect him to beat my expectations. Another player who had a great year was Carlos Pena. I’m sure there will many people who will be doing cartwheels on draft day when that draft him in the 4th round. They will have him down for 40+ homeruns. Carlos had a great year. I’m sure he had a good thought process going the whole second half of 2007, but so much of this game is mental. After a career year, I have to think there will be some regression. The few projection I’ve seen have him down for .260 something with 30/100 numbers. Could he repeat 2007? Sure. Am I drafting him in the 4th round? Never! He has talent, but I see better 1st baseman getting drafted after him with less downside risk. Carlos is a .260/.270 hitter with 25+ homeruns power who is going to get the clean up job in Tampa. If you draft him on projections, you might be in for a long year.

Each year I am always looking for that player who goes from 15/60 to 30/100. I think back to Jeff Kent in 1996 or even Travis Hafner in 2003. These player flashed talent, but all they needed was full time at bats in a favorable spot in the batting order. Maybe someone’s projections will show a bump in stats, but you will need to be able see these opportunities before they happen. I would say almost everyone who plays in high stakes games knows which players have the most talent, but we don’t know which year those players will put it together and reach their potential. There will be some who will never reach it.

As you look at this year’s projections, use them to formulate your own opinions. Look at them like buying a prospective stock investment. You need to beware of the ones everyone loves. If you bite, you must be convinced there is more in the tank. There will be some nice investment on players who are trending up. They will have shown slight gains, but they could pop with the right opportunity. Then there will be group of new start ups. Some will hit the ground running and other will need to time to develop. There could be a few who look like they are about to go under, but at the right price they are worth the investment. If you don’t do you homework, you will invest in last year hot investments or this year’s hot projections a combo that doesn’t have a high rate of success. You need to evaluate player fairly and invest in them wisely to have consistent success. I think that was 1 of the top 5 posts on these boards all year maybe #1. Couldn't agree more. If I hadn't already rated you 5 stars I would certainly do so now.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 3:37 am

Wayne - it's a zero sum game. There are only so many league points available for your team, no matter how good the other owners are. If you move up from 7 to 8 pts in batting average, that means another team just lost a pt.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 3:51 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Wayne - it's a zero sum game. There are only so many league points available for your team, no matter how good the other owners are. If you move up from 7 to 8 pts in batting average, that means another team just lost a pt. Sorry. I must of misread your post. Mathmatically, you are correct. There are only so many points available.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 5:07 am

Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

I agree with Zoleski (for a change). Shawn hasn't given up much. I have more on the profile I did based on his drafts and 2007 season than he has given up in the writing I've read. His stuff is good and useful, but 300 people aren't reading a paragraph somewhere that is basically how to win the Childs way. It's more complicated than cloning (see Zeppelin vs. Leopard). Thanks... Although much can be learned from studying drafts, I'd wager more would be learned from how the top guys manage every aspect of their team(s) during the season.

I get more out of looking at Shawn's FAAB bids and strategy than I do his draft, which is the viewpoint I have commishing about 1000 teams each year... [/QUOTE]As I said I have his 2007 season in my profile. I wish you could view all that stuff from past seasons. IMO, Shawn's bid and faabing are tied to his draft plan. The two aren't mutually exclusive.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 5:12 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Wayne - it's a zero sum game. There are only so many league points available for your team, no matter how good the other owners are. If you move up from 7 to 8 pts in batting average, that means another team just lost a pt. Sorry. I must of misread your post. Mathmatically, you are correct. There are only so many points available. [/QUOTE]following up on that...it means that if EVERYONE gets better as a poster claimed, there will still only be three money winners in each league. even if there were 15 "childs clones" in a single league, 12 will walk away wondering where they went wrong.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 5:17 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Wayne - it's a zero sum game. There are only so many league points available for your team, no matter how good the other owners are. If you move up from 7 to 8 pts in batting average, that means another team just lost a pt. Sorry. I must of misread your post. Mathmatically, you are correct. There are only so many points available. [/QUOTE]It is a zero sum game, but you have to account for a couple things:

1. If you're always in the top 20, it will only affect you when someone does better than you, which is unlikely. Look, I would probably rather have a clone of me than someone with a completely different strategy because by definition the clone would be an inferior player. Only in your own league could it hurt you, and even then, they don't know which players you are aiming for.

2. One of the benefits of helping people (besides the good feeling it gives) is that they will offer their opinions and help as well. Even if I don't get much help from that person, I help people because others have helped me. It is courtesy and ultimately it's karma.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 5:20 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Wayne - it's a zero sum game. There are only so many league points available for your team, no matter how good the other owners are. If you move up from 7 to 8 pts in batting average, that means another team just lost a pt. Sorry. I must of misread your post. Mathmatically, you are correct. There are only so many points available. [/QUOTE]following up on that...it means that if EVERYONE gets better as a poster claimed, there will still only be three money winners in each league. even if there were 15 "childs clones" in a single league, 12 will walk away wondering where they went wrong. [/QUOTE]And, again, I'd bet the one to win would be the real Childs.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 5:25 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Wayne - it's a zero sum game. There are only so many league points available for your team, no matter how good the other owners are. If you move up from 7 to 8 pts in batting average, that means another team just lost a pt. Sorry. I must of misread your post. Mathmatically, you are correct. There are only so many points available. [/QUOTE]following up on that...it means that if EVERYONE gets better as a poster claimed, there will still only be three money winners in each league. even if there were 15 "childs clones" in a single league, 12 will walk away wondering where they went wrong. [/QUOTE]And, again, I'd bet the one to win would be the real Childs. [/QUOTE]And again, his margin for error has been reduced.

[ February 03, 2008, 11:26 AM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 6:13 am

I don't know where Gordon is coming up with Childs clone thing, but it doesn't have an impact in the draft. How many of the players in the NFBC have read what I have written? I bet it is less than 20 %. I bet that most of the 20 % are already the top players in the NFBC.

There is more than one way to skin a cat. I like to do things a certain way. I don't have some secret plan to win the NFBC. There are many NFBC players who play the game similar to me. I've been lucky enough to have a few things go right. I could easily have lost any of those year by getting one different player.

When it is my turn to draft, no one can stop me from getting a player I want. I get to chose the next player who I feel is better than the next 15 player to come off the board or fits my game plan.

I've given people some ideas on some areas in the game and some goals to reach in order to compete. I talked about some observation from the players we are going to draft. I haven't promoted any players. I don't think anyone could tell me five players I will have on my team in March. I have ideas on players I like, but I won't know for sure which direction I have to go until I get my draft position. As major league teams come togther, you will make decisions on where you think there might be an opportunity.

We are in the early stages of game planning. Over the next month any negative news on a player can push him off our draft board. You have to realize I started getting ready for March in October. I think I will more prepared this year. I'm sure my competition will be also.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 6:23 am

Gordon, I saw that they were talking about how quick you drafted in the magazine draft. I think your number was 406. I had to go back and look at my draft in January, but I did it in 256. I think my work history has help me to make quick decisions and develop my memory which helps me on draft day. I've been known to invest a few dollars on anything with four legs. This might also help me when it is time to gamble in the draft.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 6:49 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Gordon, I saw that they were talking about how quick you drafted in the magazine draft. I think your number was 406. I had to go back and look at my draft in January, but I did it in 256. I think my work history has help me to make quick decisions and develop my memory which helps me on draft day. I've been known to invest a few dollars on anything with four legs. This might also help me when it is time to gamble in the draft. 406??? i'm not sure what that even means or how you found it out?

we've talked about your draft multiple times, i saw at least one thing i didn't like (you didn't like it either if i remember correctly). perhaps if you took a little more time with your picks, you could have corrected it. just a thought.

is it spring training yet?

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 7:01 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Gordon, I saw that they were talking about how quick you drafted in the magazine draft. I think your number was 406. I had to go back and look at my draft in January, but I did it in 256. I think my work history has help me to make quick decisions and develop my memory which helps me on draft day. I've been known to invest a few dollars on anything with four legs. This might also help me when it is time to gamble in the draft. 406??? i'm not sure what that even means or how you found it out?

we've talked about your draft multiple times, i saw at least one thing i didn't like (you didn't like it either if i remember correctly). perhaps if you took a little more time with your picks, you could have corrected it. just a thought.

is it spring training yet?

[/QUOTE]These two post were by Edwards Kings:

Fun facts about the NFBC Mag Draft II to know and bore your friends...

We allowed 90 seconds for picks for the first 15 rounds. We thought it was going too slowly, so we changed to 60 for the last 15 rounds. The average time it took for each owner to draft all 30 players was 810 seconds (excluding the extra time allowed for two pauses). The quickest was...well, I will let you guess (but it wasn't me)...and took 406 seconds. Three owners took all of 1100 seconds.

The MLB team with the most players picked is easy, right? Had to be BOS and NYY, right? Nope. It was the Angels of LA/ANA/SJ (20). The team with the fewest players taken was FLA (9).

Most batters taken? A tie (11 each) between the Angels, the White Sox, and, get this, the Pirates! There was a lot of speculation around the Pirate OF. The fewest batters taken was also a tie (6) between three, Marlins, Cardinals, and Giants.

The most pitchers taken? Three teams with 9 pithers taken were Angels, Arizona, and Chicago. The least was a tie with only three pitchers taken each from the Marlins and the Rangers.

Winner! According to my calculation, GG was the quickest with his picks. It looks like he took more than 32 seconds only once in 30 rounds. If you are drafting on either side of him, folks, you better have your skates on!

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 7:04 am

406? 256? What is this, "Name That Tune"?

I can draft that player in...1 second.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 7:28 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by UFS:

Childs sharing of info means everyone gets a little better, more people enter, prizes get larger, and he knows he has a better chance to win them. it's a zero sum game. everyone can't get a little better. if you get better, it's at someone else's expense. let's not forget that. [/QUOTE]Of course, "everyone" wasn't the best word there. It should be "everyone that chooses to get better each year". The ones that don't will be further behind.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 7:30 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

I don't know where Gordon is coming up with Childs clone thing, I'll give you the five second version:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=5F22sYA67j0

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 7:33 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

I agree with Zoleski (for a change). Shawn hasn't given up much. I have more on the profile I did based on his drafts and 2007 season than he has given up in the writing I've read. His stuff is good and useful, but 300 people aren't reading a paragraph somewhere that is basically how to win the Childs way. It's more complicated than cloning (see Zeppelin vs. Leopard). Thanks... Although much can be learned from studying drafts, I'd wager more would be learned from how the top guys manage every aspect of their team(s) during the season.

I get more out of looking at Shawn's FAAB bids and strategy than I do his draft, which is the viewpoint I have commishing about 1000 teams each year... [/QUOTE]As I said I have his 2007 season in my profile. I wish you could view all that stuff from past seasons. IMO, Shawn's bid and faabing are tied to his draft plan. The two aren't mutually exclusive. [/QUOTE]I agree 100%... My post was getting long and I was going to touch on that... The quality of the draft determines the amount of risk on your faab strategy...

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 7:42 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

I could easily have lost any of those year by getting one different player. What a great comment...The thing I got from looking at Shawn's faab strategy is that he scratches and claws for every stat possible to help him out and that there is a game plan for every $1 bid.

When I won that mid-season league, I looked back and was amazed how everything, and I mean everything had to work perfectly just to win that close league.

The margin of error in most leagues is so small, and that why winning a league here is truly an accomplishment.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 8:41 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Wayne - it's a zero sum game. There are only so many league points available for your team, no matter how good the other owners are. If you move up from 7 to 8 pts in batting average, that means another team just lost a pt. Sorry. I must of misread your post. Mathmatically, you are correct. There are only so many points available. [/QUOTE]following up on that...it means that if EVERYONE gets better as a poster claimed, there will still only be three money winners in each league. even if there were 15 "childs clones" in a single league, 12 will walk away wondering where they went wrong. [/QUOTE]Yes. I understand and your point is well taken. There will be on three in the money this year. How about next year or the other events this year?

You and I and many others never look at this as a one year, single event. We (or the best or at least most dedicated) use the passion we have for this as a way to improve. One way many of us do this is through the free exchange of ideas on the boards. So all boats can rise decreasing the chances of losing because you were less prepared or because you hadn't considered a position. This part, at least, is not zero sum.

I've read the paragraph above and may not have stated things clearly, but it is the best I have right now. It sounds too "zen" for me.

[ February 03, 2008, 02:42 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 8:42 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

Wayne - it's a zero sum game. There are only so many league points available for your team, no matter how good the other owners are. If you move up from 7 to 8 pts in batting average, that means another team just lost a pt. Sorry. I must of misread your post. Mathmatically, you are correct. There are only so many points available. [/QUOTE]following up on that...it means that if EVERYONE gets better as a poster claimed, there will still only be three money winners in each league. even if there were 15 "childs clones" in a single league, 12 will walk away wondering where they went wrong. [/QUOTE]And, again, I'd bet the one to win would be the real Childs. [/QUOTE]And again, his margin for error has been reduced. [/QUOTE]I disagree. Anyone who tries to copy you will be an inferior copy. You should win every time, luck excluded. More dangerous to deal with people doing something way different.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 8:58 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

I disagree. Anyone who tries to copy you will be an inferior copy. You should win every time, luck excluded. copy and improve is the motto. that's how most innovation takes place in the real world. fantasy sports is no different.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 9:26 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

I disagree. Anyone who tries to copy you will be an inferior copy. You should win every time, luck excluded. copy and improve is the motto. that's how most innovation takes place in the real world. fantasy sports is no different. [/QUOTE]Oh, I agree. Or at least integrate. I'm sure everyone (good) does that, including Sean. I know you have borrowed from Sean and others. Does that make you a Childs clone? The argument is academic at this point, but a 'clone' indicates an imitation of the original, certainly not better than the original.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 9:32 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

I know you have borrowed from Sean and others. I've never borrowed from 'Sean'.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 9:39 am

Well, from whomever, you've certainly borrowed. And you should. There are only so many ways to improve. Assessing where you've gone wrong and others have gone right is one of them.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 9:58 am

Shawn, if you can produce this much banter on just introducing you as a live chat guest, I can hardly wait to see the traffic on Wednesday when you're on live!!

See ya on Wednesday.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Feb 03, 2008 10:09 am

I think, clearly, we respect the people we've actually seen perform consistently in a large arena. I notice the forecaster mentions # of expert league titles every year and always fails to mention how many tries. We know Shawn's record.

I would love to see the #1 overall invited for a chat every year.