Originally posted by Captain Hook:
Any local info on the new ballpark? I have seen the measurements and they don't look much different than RFK although I understand the fench will be shorter. How do you think the new stadium will play for power vs the old one? We did an analysis of the new park a few months ago and the best we can determine is it won't be as bad as RFK. In our projections, we've upgraded the park factors to halfway between RFK and a neutral park. Of course, until we see 2-3 seasons of stats, we really don't know for sure.
Ron Shandler Will Be Chatting Here At 2 ET Today
Ron Shandler Will Be Chatting Here At 2 ET Today
ron
sorry about your illness, hope you get better.
is there a Ranger SP worth taking a chance on this year?
sorry about your illness, hope you get better.
is there a Ranger SP worth taking a chance on this year?
bill cleavenger
BIG BLUE NATION
"we don't rebuild, we reload"
BIG BLUE NATION
"we don't rebuild, we reload"
Ron Shandler Will Be Chatting Here At 2 ET Today
Originally posted by Walla Walla:
The Protfolio3 plan is based on
your reliability scores. This has been a bone of contention even on your web site chat.
I saw that you addressed this in an article. You stated that the reliability scores were backward looking only. So without any projection in reliability wouldn’t that make them useless? You brought up A-Rod who would not qualify for a Tier 1 group based on his unreliability (Score 52). But you have Aramis Ramirez as a Tier 1 reliability (Score 89).
I think most of us know that A. Ramires finished with around 500 at bats due to injury 2 of the last three years. Based on that alone I’d think the Portfolio 3 plan is flawed. As always looking forward to your comments.
Reliability scores are a work in process but I'd hardly call them useless. You can look at a player's 2007 stat line and get a rough read on his potential without doing any projections - so backward-looking data does have some value. The challenge with projecting risk is that you have to be able to project variability and injury - tough to do. So we have to get by with a backward-looking gauge. As for ARam and ARod - over the past few years, ARod has posted both $45 and $29 seasons while ARam has been more consistent - that's what REL measures.
The Protfolio3 plan is based on
your reliability scores. This has been a bone of contention even on your web site chat.
I saw that you addressed this in an article. You stated that the reliability scores were backward looking only. So without any projection in reliability wouldn’t that make them useless? You brought up A-Rod who would not qualify for a Tier 1 group based on his unreliability (Score 52). But you have Aramis Ramirez as a Tier 1 reliability (Score 89).
I think most of us know that A. Ramires finished with around 500 at bats due to injury 2 of the last three years. Based on that alone I’d think the Portfolio 3 plan is flawed. As always looking forward to your comments.
Reliability scores are a work in process but I'd hardly call them useless. You can look at a player's 2007 stat line and get a rough read on his potential without doing any projections - so backward-looking data does have some value. The challenge with projecting risk is that you have to be able to project variability and injury - tough to do. So we have to get by with a backward-looking gauge. As for ARam and ARod - over the past few years, ARod has posted both $45 and $29 seasons while ARam has been more consistent - that's what REL measures.-
Chest Rockwell
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Ron- If I wait until after round 20 to draft my first catcher. Help me find 2 guys who can in your opinion can keep me even at that position. In case you are not familiar with where people fall in the nfbc the obvious ones, plus Salty, Towles, Soto, and Ramon Hernandez will be gone at that point.
Ron Shandler Will Be Chatting Here At 2 ET Today
Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:
Ron,
A lot of people, at the time, thought that your book may be too comprehensive and have jargon that common fantasy baseballers wouldn't understand. Now that it has become the standard, what do we have to look forward to in the future?
My feeling is that simple gb/fb stats will be replaced by MPH off of the bat, trajectory, and distance. As it would be a lot more informational to see how far and how hard a fly ball or ground ball is hit rather than just lump them all in the same category.
Do you forsee your book putting out this kind of information in the future? And if not, do you know of anyone compiling this type of information? This is clearly the future. I've said that we cannot measure power by the number of extra bases - we have to measure it by the distance the ball is hit. As this data becomes more available (and affordable), it will surely be included in future editions of the book.
Ron,
A lot of people, at the time, thought that your book may be too comprehensive and have jargon that common fantasy baseballers wouldn't understand. Now that it has become the standard, what do we have to look forward to in the future?
My feeling is that simple gb/fb stats will be replaced by MPH off of the bat, trajectory, and distance. As it would be a lot more informational to see how far and how hard a fly ball or ground ball is hit rather than just lump them all in the same category.
Do you forsee your book putting out this kind of information in the future? And if not, do you know of anyone compiling this type of information? This is clearly the future. I've said that we cannot measure power by the number of extra bases - we have to measure it by the distance the ball is hit. As this data becomes more available (and affordable), it will surely be included in future editions of the book.
Ron Shandler Will Be Chatting Here At 2 ET Today
Originally posted by Less than Dave:
Ron,
If you had the 2nd overall pick in a 5x5 roto draft and AROD went 1st, who do you take? I think part of the problem with this is the extreme dropoff at SS after the big 3 (Rollins, Reyes, Hanley).. makes it tough to pick a David Wright or Matt Holliday. Do you think Hanley stays healthy all year? And if so, will he put up similar or greater numbers to last year?
Thank you. I am not Hanley's doctor but I do know that there is enough risk there to push him down the rankings. Of the three R's, Rollins is least risky but I wouldn't pick him 2nd. In the first round these days, risk avoidance has to trump positonal scarcity so I'd go with Wright.
Ron,
If you had the 2nd overall pick in a 5x5 roto draft and AROD went 1st, who do you take? I think part of the problem with this is the extreme dropoff at SS after the big 3 (Rollins, Reyes, Hanley).. makes it tough to pick a David Wright or Matt Holliday. Do you think Hanley stays healthy all year? And if so, will he put up similar or greater numbers to last year?
Thank you. I am not Hanley's doctor but I do know that there is enough risk there to push him down the rankings. Of the three R's, Rollins is least risky but I wouldn't pick him 2nd. In the first round these days, risk avoidance has to trump positonal scarcity so I'd go with Wright.
Ron Shandler Will Be Chatting Here At 2 ET Today
Originally posted by Less than Dave:
oh, also, what do you think about Johan Santana this year? Would you draft him top 5? Or is SP that much more easily replaceable than hitting on the waiver wire? I don't even start thinking about starting pitchers until round 8, and won't select one until rd 10 if I can help it. Fungible commodities. Even Santana. Remember Chris Carpenter last year?
oh, also, what do you think about Johan Santana this year? Would you draft him top 5? Or is SP that much more easily replaceable than hitting on the waiver wire? I don't even start thinking about starting pitchers until round 8, and won't select one until rd 10 if I can help it. Fungible commodities. Even Santana. Remember Chris Carpenter last year?
Ron Shandler Will Be Chatting Here At 2 ET Today
Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:
Ron, Is Albert Pujols still in your top 15? He's still listed in my top 15 only because where else are you going to put him? He's on the high risk list though so I won't draft him. Too many other players out there.
Ron, Is Albert Pujols still in your top 15? He's still listed in my top 15 only because where else are you going to put him? He's on the high risk list though so I won't draft him. Too many other players out there.
Ron Shandler Will Be Chatting Here At 2 ET Today
Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
Ron,
Your thoughts on Jeremy Bonderman? Can he pull a Josh Beckett of a year ago, i.e. drafted in the double digit rounds and reward you with 4th/5th round production? Sorry if I'm jumping around a bit; trying to pick questions that won't tax me too much.
Bonderman - yes.
Ron,
Your thoughts on Jeremy Bonderman? Can he pull a Josh Beckett of a year ago, i.e. drafted in the double digit rounds and reward you with 4th/5th round production? Sorry if I'm jumping around a bit; trying to pick questions that won't tax me too much.
Bonderman - yes.
Ron Shandler Will Be Chatting Here At 2 ET Today
Originally posted by Sack:
We have often read that excess innings on a young arm can lead to injury problems down the road. However, Brett Myers , after logging close to 180 innings per year at a young age has done the reverse. Because of his role in the pen last year he dropped to under 70 innings in 2007. What, if any, effect will this change have on him for the 2008 season? Will the lower total CATCH up with him later in the season? It's possible but it's tough to generalize. As a young pitcher, you'd think he'd be more able to withstand the IP spike this year, but you never know. I never thought John Smoltz would be able to return to the rotation and he was, like 54 when he did that.
We have often read that excess innings on a young arm can lead to injury problems down the road. However, Brett Myers , after logging close to 180 innings per year at a young age has done the reverse. Because of his role in the pen last year he dropped to under 70 innings in 2007. What, if any, effect will this change have on him for the 2008 season? Will the lower total CATCH up with him later in the season? It's possible but it's tough to generalize. As a young pitcher, you'd think he'd be more able to withstand the IP spike this year, but you never know. I never thought John Smoltz would be able to return to the rotation and he was, like 54 when he did that.
Ron Shandler Will Be Chatting Here At 2 ET Today
Originally posted by Less than Dave:
What strategy do you think fits best in a 5x5 roto 15-team league regarding Catchers and Closers? Do you draft one or both early, or wait until later, or just take what you think is the best value at the time? For instance, there are very few impact catchers, and those who are at the top (Victor/Martin) certainly don't dominate, and their stats are usually considerably worse than the other players being drafted around them. But needing 2 catchers, does it make it worth it to take a shot at a top catcher in say the 2nd round?
For closers, a few like Nathan, Putz, and K-Rod are head and shoulders above the rest I think in that they put up good numbers, get saves, have very secure jobs, and are not old or injury-prone. Is it worth it to grab one of the elites around round 4, or merely wait until later and grab lesser closers and waiver wire some in-season?
I woudn't worry much about catchers. Take them late. VMart is a hot commodity but it's a tough position and he could pull a "Mauer." I waited late in the FSTA draft and got Varitek and Ross (though previously had rostered Ichiro). As for closers, if you can get an elite one in rd 6, do it. Otherwise wait. Upwards of 40% of saves will come from arms not drafted.
What strategy do you think fits best in a 5x5 roto 15-team league regarding Catchers and Closers? Do you draft one or both early, or wait until later, or just take what you think is the best value at the time? For instance, there are very few impact catchers, and those who are at the top (Victor/Martin) certainly don't dominate, and their stats are usually considerably worse than the other players being drafted around them. But needing 2 catchers, does it make it worth it to take a shot at a top catcher in say the 2nd round?
For closers, a few like Nathan, Putz, and K-Rod are head and shoulders above the rest I think in that they put up good numbers, get saves, have very secure jobs, and are not old or injury-prone. Is it worth it to grab one of the elites around round 4, or merely wait until later and grab lesser closers and waiver wire some in-season?
I woudn't worry much about catchers. Take them late. VMart is a hot commodity but it's a tough position and he could pull a "Mauer." I waited late in the FSTA draft and got Varitek and Ross (though previously had rostered Ichiro). As for closers, if you can get an elite one in rd 6, do it. Otherwise wait. Upwards of 40% of saves will come from arms not drafted.
-
sportsbettingman
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Ron Shandler Will Be Chatting Here At 2 ET Today
Get well soon, Ronald! 
I believe rotisserie baseball a while back had 4X4 as its most popular game.
5X5 rules the day now.
If you could look into your crystal ball and select one category for hitters, and one for pitchers to jump to 6X6...which would they be?
("Holds" come to mind...stats they now track that were not kept track of previously.)
~Lance
[ February 21, 2008, 01:18 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
I believe rotisserie baseball a while back had 4X4 as its most popular game.
5X5 rules the day now.
If you could look into your crystal ball and select one category for hitters, and one for pitchers to jump to 6X6...which would they be?
("Holds" come to mind...stats they now track that were not kept track of previously.)
~Lance
[ February 21, 2008, 01:18 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
"The only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen at once."
~Albert Einstein
~Albert Einstein
Ron Shandler Will Be Chatting Here At 2 ET Today
Originally posted by Quahogs:
Ron,
I buy your book but don't subscribe to the site. Can the changes through winter and spring training vastly alter your view (and projections)on players or does the last body of data ('07 regular season)carry say 95% of how you expect a player to perform in '08?
Am I missing some seismic shift (Shandler projection standards, non-injury related)in a player by not hitting the website ? The foundation for the projections do appear in the book (and 2007 accounts for far less than 95%), but the projections process is fluid. We adjust playing time constantly, and make performance adjustments when new information comes to light. The book is a terrific reference tool but the website is on top of the most current info.
Ron,
I buy your book but don't subscribe to the site. Can the changes through winter and spring training vastly alter your view (and projections)on players or does the last body of data ('07 regular season)carry say 95% of how you expect a player to perform in '08?
Am I missing some seismic shift (Shandler projection standards, non-injury related)in a player by not hitting the website ? The foundation for the projections do appear in the book (and 2007 accounts for far less than 95%), but the projections process is fluid. We adjust playing time constantly, and make performance adjustments when new information comes to light. The book is a terrific reference tool but the website is on top of the most current info.
-
sportsbettingman
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Ron Shandler Will Be Chatting Here At 2 ET Today
"Upwards of 40% of saves will come from arms not drafted."
WOW!
WOW!
"The only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen at once."
~Albert Einstein
~Albert Einstein
Ron Shandler Will Be Chatting Here At 2 ET Today
Radford or Va Tech?
Ron Shandler Will Be Chatting Here At 2 ET Today
Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
Ron, two interesting developments this week to talk about:
1. Since Albert Pujols talked about his sore elbow, his stock has fallen. This week in three separate NFBC pay satellite leagues, he went 10th, 12th and 16th? I know people have asked this already, but are we all over-reacting to this news? Does Pujols have enough protection in that sorry lineup to be first round worthy? Do you trust him to play 155+ games again this year.
2. Secondly, in the NFBC people can set their draft preferences and we slot them as they are randomly chosen. Recently, I've seen that the No. 2 spot is one of the last preferences for owners. It's obvious they don't want to make the choice on Hanley because of his shoulder, along with other things. Do you feel Hanley will be healthy for the start of the season and would you make him a Top 3 overall pick. If you could pick the ideal draft spot or location this year, what would it be? I think people are overreacting to Pujols because it's Feb. 21 and that's all the information we have. Once mid-March hits, we'll have a better idea. As for Hanley, sort of the same answer - it's too early to tell.
FWIW... I have my own Top 15 list that will be revealed at the upcoming First Pitch Forum events (www.firstpitchforums.com). It is based on the assumption that the top 15 players are essentially interchangeable and that we need to rank them based on their ability to return true 1st round value. (Note that in the past 5 years, the consensus #1 pick NEVER finished first.) Players like Hanley and Reyes are far down my Top 15...
Ron, two interesting developments this week to talk about:
1. Since Albert Pujols talked about his sore elbow, his stock has fallen. This week in three separate NFBC pay satellite leagues, he went 10th, 12th and 16th? I know people have asked this already, but are we all over-reacting to this news? Does Pujols have enough protection in that sorry lineup to be first round worthy? Do you trust him to play 155+ games again this year.
2. Secondly, in the NFBC people can set their draft preferences and we slot them as they are randomly chosen. Recently, I've seen that the No. 2 spot is one of the last preferences for owners. It's obvious they don't want to make the choice on Hanley because of his shoulder, along with other things. Do you feel Hanley will be healthy for the start of the season and would you make him a Top 3 overall pick. If you could pick the ideal draft spot or location this year, what would it be? I think people are overreacting to Pujols because it's Feb. 21 and that's all the information we have. Once mid-March hits, we'll have a better idea. As for Hanley, sort of the same answer - it's too early to tell.
FWIW... I have my own Top 15 list that will be revealed at the upcoming First Pitch Forum events (www.firstpitchforums.com). It is based on the assumption that the top 15 players are essentially interchangeable and that we need to rank them based on their ability to return true 1st round value. (Note that in the past 5 years, the consensus #1 pick NEVER finished first.) Players like Hanley and Reyes are far down my Top 15...
Ron Shandler Will Be Chatting Here At 2 ET Today
Originally posted by cleaver beavers:
ron
utley, phillips, and upton are getting a lot of love this year (justifiably so), how do feel about rickie weeks having a breakout year (assuming he stays healthy) and putting up the numbers of his counterparts. Weeks is a solid talent but he is NOT a .300 hitter. I think some folks see him as a post-hype prospect in the mold of Phillips and expect that EVERYTHING about 2007 is projectable. Power and speed - yes. BA - no.
ron
utley, phillips, and upton are getting a lot of love this year (justifiably so), how do feel about rickie weeks having a breakout year (assuming he stays healthy) and putting up the numbers of his counterparts. Weeks is a solid talent but he is NOT a .300 hitter. I think some folks see him as a post-hype prospect in the mold of Phillips and expect that EVERYTHING about 2007 is projectable. Power and speed - yes. BA - no.
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sportsbettingman
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Sorry for the activity, Ron...
You last post re: consensus top picks NEVER BEING top picks brought my mind to how the top 10 in football ALWAYS seem to have a 50% turnover.
I know baseball has much less contact...but is there a similar (to a lesser degree) trend?
~Lance
You last post re: consensus top picks NEVER BEING top picks brought my mind to how the top 10 in football ALWAYS seem to have a 50% turnover.
I know baseball has much less contact...but is there a similar (to a lesser degree) trend?
~Lance
"The only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen at once."
~Albert Einstein
~Albert Einstein
Ron Shandler Will Be Chatting Here At 2 ET Today
Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
Ron,
Have you (or do you have plans to) contacted any of the "cream of the crop" high stakes fantasy baseball players who have proven successful on a consistent basis (vs. a public (not exclusive) competition) to add a "guest article" or more to be incorporated into your Forecaster publication? (Maybe dealing in 5X5 strategy or new developments/trends in baseball or category or position strengths/weaknesses that they may see that others do not.)
With the growth of high stakes fantasy sports (as opposed to local "Momma" leagues (is that right, GG?))...that may be a welcome addition for readers.
~Lance I'd very much welcome articles from successful players, no matter what game they play. My question here, though, is, does the fact that these are high stakes leagues (as opposed to just 5x5 mixed leagues) change the analysis, strategy or advice?
Ron,
Have you (or do you have plans to) contacted any of the "cream of the crop" high stakes fantasy baseball players who have proven successful on a consistent basis (vs. a public (not exclusive) competition) to add a "guest article" or more to be incorporated into your Forecaster publication? (Maybe dealing in 5X5 strategy or new developments/trends in baseball or category or position strengths/weaknesses that they may see that others do not.)
With the growth of high stakes fantasy sports (as opposed to local "Momma" leagues (is that right, GG?))...that may be a welcome addition for readers.
~Lance I'd very much welcome articles from successful players, no matter what game they play. My question here, though, is, does the fact that these are high stakes leagues (as opposed to just 5x5 mixed leagues) change the analysis, strategy or advice?
Ron Shandler Will Be Chatting Here At 2 ET Today
Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
Removing statistics for a minute...
Are there specific "IT...THINGS" you look for when scouting live baseball...whether in person or on TV...that gives you confidence or worry in a hitter or pitcher? (unproven players)
What would those "intangibles" be that don't show up in boxscores? (Dipping of head, off balance, unkind strain on body due to unorthodox form...etc.)
~Lance For fantasy purposes, I hate to say this, but I don't like to look at any of that stuff. It all represents small sample sizes and are not terribly projectable.
Removing statistics for a minute...
Are there specific "IT...THINGS" you look for when scouting live baseball...whether in person or on TV...that gives you confidence or worry in a hitter or pitcher? (unproven players)
What would those "intangibles" be that don't show up in boxscores? (Dipping of head, off balance, unkind strain on body due to unorthodox form...etc.)
~Lance For fantasy purposes, I hate to say this, but I don't like to look at any of that stuff. It all represents small sample sizes and are not terribly projectable.
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Walla Walla
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RON, Will you do the AL 1300 Auction NFBC Las Vegas? It's paid for you just have to show up????
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sportsbettingman
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Originally posted by RON@HQ:
quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
Ron,
Have you (or do you have plans to) contacted any of the "cream of the crop" high stakes fantasy baseball players who have proven successful on a consistent basis (vs. a public (not exclusive) competition) to add a "guest article" or more to be incorporated into your Forecaster publication? (Maybe dealing in 5X5 strategy or new developments/trends in baseball or category or position strengths/weaknesses that they may see that others do not.)
With the growth of high stakes fantasy sports (as opposed to local "Momma" leagues (is that right, GG?))...that may be a welcome addition for readers.
~Lance I'd very much welcome articles from successful players, no matter what game they play. My question here, though, is, does the fact that these are high stakes leagues (as opposed to just 5x5 mixed leagues) change the analysis, strategy or advice? [/QUOTE]I guess the biggest difference could be the attack angles (that could vary from year to year) of dealing with the OVERALL CHAMPIONSHIP of multi-league based events. (as opposed to single league strategies.)
~Lance
quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
Ron,
Have you (or do you have plans to) contacted any of the "cream of the crop" high stakes fantasy baseball players who have proven successful on a consistent basis (vs. a public (not exclusive) competition) to add a "guest article" or more to be incorporated into your Forecaster publication? (Maybe dealing in 5X5 strategy or new developments/trends in baseball or category or position strengths/weaknesses that they may see that others do not.)
With the growth of high stakes fantasy sports (as opposed to local "Momma" leagues (is that right, GG?))...that may be a welcome addition for readers.
~Lance I'd very much welcome articles from successful players, no matter what game they play. My question here, though, is, does the fact that these are high stakes leagues (as opposed to just 5x5 mixed leagues) change the analysis, strategy or advice? [/QUOTE]I guess the biggest difference could be the attack angles (that could vary from year to year) of dealing with the OVERALL CHAMPIONSHIP of multi-league based events. (as opposed to single league strategies.)
~Lance
"The only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen at once."
~Albert Einstein
~Albert Einstein
Ron Shandler Will Be Chatting Here At 2 ET Today
Originally posted by cleaver beavers:
is there a Ranger SP worth taking a chance on this year? Millwood still has skills and is a good late-rounder. I might speculate on Padilla in a deeper league. The other young guys are crapshoots.
is there a Ranger SP worth taking a chance on this year? Millwood still has skills and is a good late-rounder. I might speculate on Padilla in a deeper league. The other young guys are crapshoots.
Ron Shandler Will Be Chatting Here At 2 ET Today
Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:
Ron- If I wait until after round 20 to draft my first catcher. Help me find 2 guys who can in your opinion can keep me even at that position. In case you are not familiar with where people fall in the nfbc the obvious ones, plus Salty, Towles, Soto, and Ramon Hernandez will be gone at that point. I'd bet you'd be able to get Doumit and Ross at that point. That's a lot of power that late and you just need to make sure you've drafted enough BA earlier.
Ron- If I wait until after round 20 to draft my first catcher. Help me find 2 guys who can in your opinion can keep me even at that position. In case you are not familiar with where people fall in the nfbc the obvious ones, plus Salty, Towles, Soto, and Ramon Hernandez will be gone at that point. I'd bet you'd be able to get Doumit and Ross at that point. That's a lot of power that late and you just need to make sure you've drafted enough BA earlier.
Ron Shandler Will Be Chatting Here At 2 ET Today
ron
any chance marcus giles wins a starting job in col. and is a quality late round sleeper.
any chance marcus giles wins a starting job in col. and is a quality late round sleeper.
bill cleavenger
BIG BLUE NATION
"we don't rebuild, we reload"
BIG BLUE NATION
"we don't rebuild, we reload"