What Will Be The Winning Draft Spot?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Mar 10, 2008 3:38 am

Last year in the NFBC's main event involving 25 leagues, winning teams came from 13 different draft spots. Number 6 produced the most champions with six, while only spots three and nine failed to produce a league champion.

In the past four years, our overall champion has come from the following draft spots: 7 (2007), 9 (2006), 5 (2005) and 3 (2004). All odd numbers. Will the trend continue or is it time for an even-numbered draft spot to win $100,000?

Here's a quick rundown of last year's league champs and where they drafted from:

#1: 1 league champ

#2: 3

#3: 0

#4: 2

#5: 2

#6: 6

#7: 1

#8: 3

#9: 0

#10: 1

#11: 1

#12: 2

#13: 1

#14: 1

#15: 1

Here's the breakdown by city:

LV 1: 11th spot

LV 2: 4th

LV 3: 12th

LV 4: 2nd

LV 5: 6th

LV 6: 15th

LV 7: 1st

LV 8: 8th

LV 9: 13th

CHI 1: 7th (Terry Haney)

CHI 2: 2nd

CHI 3: 6th

CHI 4: 6th

TAM 1: 2nd

TAM 2: 12th

NY 1: 6th

NY 2: 8th

NY 3: 4th

NY 4: 6th

NY 5: 6th

NY 6: 8th

NY 7: 10th

NY 8: 14th

NY 9: 5th

10 champs came from 10 different spots in Las Vegas last year, which is pretty interesting.

Okay, now that you have this data, where do you think this year's overall champion will draft from? Where will the most league champs come from? Obviously, you can win from any draft spot. Do you have the knowledge to win a league title and compete for the overall title from the spot you have now?

Inquiring Message Board minds are waiting to find out.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Mar 10, 2008 3:42 am

Okay, here's one more tidbit for ya: Even though the 9th spot didn't produce a league champ in the main event, it did produce an Ultimate League champion. Last year's winning teams in the Ultimate Draft Leagues came from:

ULT 1: 15th spot

ULT 2: 9th

ULT 3: 10th

See, you can win from anywhere.

Potter · Post by **Potter** » Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:26 am

The easiest question you have ever asked, Greg. Pick 9 LV 3.

RedRum · Post by **RedRum** » Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:32 am

The 5 Hole

Lunatic · Post by **Lunatic** » Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:50 am

Potter is a Lunatic, the winning spot of course will be 6 in LV 7...

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Mon Mar 10, 2008 5:24 am

There are no bad picks, just bad owners

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Mar 10, 2008 5:51 am

No league champs from #3 last season? That's gotta be the money pick for '08.

Bad slots? Expect #13-#15 to combine for no more than 3 winners again.

All other slots? They all have their ups and downs, apply the UFS rule to these.

billywaz · Post by **billywaz** » Mon Mar 10, 2008 5:53 am

It obviously can be from any spot, but whoever gets a Ryan Braun/Carlos Pena type gem late AND gets a break in round one (like Rollins or Reyes falling 3 or 4 picks) AND a break in round two will be the winner.

I'll spin the wheel and say a team picking from #9 wins it all this year!

Potter · Post by **Potter** » Mon Mar 10, 2008 6:07 am

I am a little suprised how this thread is approaching 3 hours old and nobody has done a lifetime ranking avg per draft slot study. I'm too busy lighting candles at Our Lady of Perpetual Roto Help.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Mon Mar 10, 2008 6:10 am

since i draft 14 i can say my bet is on pick 7. might get miggy, ichuro, martin then can draft a ton of low ba power and steals. so i will say 7

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Mon Mar 10, 2008 6:14 am

Originally posted by Potter:

I am a little suprised how this thread is approaching 3 hours old and nobody has done a lifetime ranking avg per draft slot study. I'm too busy lighting candles at Our Lady of Perpetual Roto Help. LOL...

That study would be 100% meaningless. Value shifts every year. How do you account for Pena, faab monsters, etc...

Sack · Post by **Sack** » Mon Mar 10, 2008 6:42 am

One of the CDM crew from the "Rail" spot. Wire to wire!

Go Getta · Post by **Go Getta** » Mon Mar 10, 2008 7:18 am

Originally posted by UFS:

There are no bad picks, just bad owners +1

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Mar 10, 2008 8:03 am

Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by Potter:

I am a little suprised how this thread is approaching 3 hours old and nobody has done a lifetime ranking avg per draft slot study. I'm too busy lighting candles at Our Lady of Perpetual Roto Help. LOL...

That study would be 100% meaningless. Value shifts every year. How do you account for Pena, faab monsters, etc... [/QUOTE]With the big day quickly approaching, I am having nightmares about faab monsters.

751542 · Post by **751542** » Mon Mar 10, 2008 8:15 am

i am gonna predict........

14th position

Spartacus · Post by **Spartacus** » Mon Mar 10, 2008 12:18 pm

I hope that prediction is applicable for the Saturday night Super Draft as well RT

Hard Heads · Post by **Hard Heads** » Mon Mar 10, 2008 1:14 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

No league champs from #3 last season? That's gotta be the money pick for '08.

Bad slots? Expect #13-#15 to combine for no more than 3 winners again.

All other slots? They all have their ups and downs, apply the UFS rule to these. Kj as a proud holder of pick 13 I sure hope you are incorrect in your evaluation of picks 13-15 having no more then 3 winners, unless of course pick 13 in LV10 is one of those winners.

DrDobs · Post by **DrDobs** » Mon Mar 10, 2008 1:45 pm

I'm going to venture out and say it's going to be pick #9. High enough to get a solid tier 1 guy, far enough back to catch a player almost nearly suitable for selection in the 1st round down in the 2nd...

Jon

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Mar 10, 2008 3:17 pm

Originally posted by Hard Heads:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

No league champs from #3 last season? That's gotta be the money pick for '08.

Bad slots? Expect #13-#15 to combine for no more than 3 winners again.

All other slots? They all have their ups and downs, apply the UFS rule to these. Kj as a proud holder of pick 13 I sure hope you are incorrect in your evaluation of picks 13-15 having no more then 3 winners, unless of course pick 13 in LV10 is one of those winners. [/QUOTE]Well if you and RT win your lges, that's only one more winner there for the rest of the NFBC!

RichV · Post by **RichV** » Mon Mar 10, 2008 6:00 pm

The progression is obvious. OA winners have come from 3-5-7-9. It's clearly the year to be in the 11th spot....in NY...in lge 5 (So the numbers got flip flopped for '06 and '07, a minor clitch in the thoery)