A man with a plan

[KJ Duke]

Originally posted by Jackstraw:

Dyv,



Thanks for the post. That's about the best team I've seen yet (except for mine ).



It also makes me feel a lot better about taking Rowand in the 10th. At the time I didn't even really question it. Later it seemed that he went lower in other drafts. I've got to think though that the upside potential for any Giant is going to be good without Bonds in the clubhouse. I think two of my better picks were Rowand (too early I agree) and Kotsay (24th rd) solely because of the fit on the team and their coaches. Bobby Cox and the Braves will motivate Kotsay into a career year (maybe not next if he is still there). Rowand and the Giants will be tough trying to show they don't need Bonds. There is a grittiness about the Giants that I think will show on the field. They won't win the West, but they will be strong. Bold predictions there jackstraw.



Seems more likely that Kotsay won't be worth a spot in your lineup and is probably in the waiver pool after several weeks, and Rowand disappoints 'til he runs into a wall because there'll be no one to drive in or drive him on in the SF lineup.



[ March 19, 2008, 11:08 AM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

[Greg Ambrosius]

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

The more I look at Kinsler...the more I see a steal mid 4th round. (If he plays 140+) I had him and Weeks as make or break type guys...with Kinsler much lower on the risk scale (esp. avg.)



Gotta love the upside of Kinsler and Hamilton...but having Young too...your eyes will be focused on the TEX boxscore each day!



Those 3 or less run games from TEX will hurt...but the 5 or more will be killer for you, John.



~Lance Lance, you made me proud this weekend in a number of ways. 1) You were so focused on your drafts that you never once came up to me and asked for more drink tickets. You were all baseball-all day Friday and Saturday. Awesome. And 2) You and Zaleski were so civil to each other that you looked like brothers. Not physically, but one-in-the-same on the social level. Gotta love to see it come full circle.



Now good luck. I know you've already gotten your $1,300 of fun out of this weekend, but you might as well win some money while you're at it, right? Good luck this year and thanks for joining us for drinks and other festivities over the weekend. And get back to that workout routine because we're diving into the pool in August at the Flamingo when it's 110 degrees.



[ March 19, 2008, 11:15 AM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]

[sportsbettingman]

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

The more I look at Kinsler...the more I see a steal mid 4th round. (If he plays 140+) I had him and Weeks as make or break type guys...with Kinsler much lower on the risk scale (esp. avg.)



Gotta love the upside of Kinsler and Hamilton...but having Young too...your eyes will be focused on the TEX boxscore each day!



Those 3 or less run games from TEX will hurt...but the 5 or more will be killer for you, John.



~Lance Lance, you made me proud this weekend in a number of ways. 1) You were so focused on your drafts that you never once came up to me and asked for more drink tickets. You were all baseball-all day Friday and Saturday. Awesome. And 2) You and Zaleski were so civil to each other that you looked like brothers. Not physically, but one-in-the-same on the social level. Gotta love to see it come full circle.



Now good luck. I know you've already gotten your $1,300 of fun out of this weekend, but you might as well win some money while you're at it, right? Good luck this year and thanks for joining us for drinks and other festivities over the weekend. And get back to that workout routine because we're diving into the pool in August at the Flamingo when it's 110 degrees. [/QUOTE]Thanks Greg!



I've never anticipated a season of baseball as much as this one!



...and my wife will "ditto" your "get back to some sort of workout routine" line...big time!



~Lance

[JohnZ]

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

The more I look at Kinsler...the more I see a steal mid 4th round. (If he plays 140+) I had him and Weeks as make or break type guys...with Kinsler much lower on the risk scale (esp. avg.)



Gotta love the upside of Kinsler and Hamilton...but having Young too...your eyes will be focused on the TEX boxscore each day!



Those 3 or less run games from TEX will hurt...but the 5 or more will be killer for you, John.



~Lance Screw the Angels! I'm a Rangers fan this year!!



I'm counting on many 9-7 Ranger games. I hear Bradley is coming back soon.. that can only help..

[JohnZ]

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

2) You and Zaleski were so civil to each other that you looked like brothers. Not physically, but one-in-the-same on the social level. Gotta love to see it come full circle. Lance and I have always been friends. We had a little issue, and settled it months ago like bros do via e-mail. Why do you keep insisting that there is a problem?

[MadCow Sez]

Competition in LV3 was tough and you could watch expressions around the table as teams grabbed players other teams coveted. Picking from 15 added a challenge as we felt we needed to drive the train as often as possible and reach early for guys we wanted (not exactly a revelation, more a realization). It's better to start a run than to try to catch up with one.



Round 1/2: Teixiera/Phillips for speed power base. Discussed going against grain and icing MI with Phillips/Upton but liked Teix's power more.



Round 3/4: Aramis and Pence. Never expected Aramis to still be here but we weren't going to pass it up.



Round 5/6: Francouer/Felix. Got the SP we wanted and another rock solid OF. There were 8 more pitchers taken after we grabbed Felix



Round 7/8: Maine/Jenks. We wanted our second core SP and to grab a closer before the first run got going in earnest. There were 9 more pitchers taken after our pair.



Round 9/10: Corpas/Helton. Helton at 10.1 was a gift IMO but we wanted Tavares for speed base (He went to team 7) here. Corpas was our other targeted closer.



Round 11/12: Peralta/Marmol. Got power at MI and a half closer who we expect to be holding the job at some point this year.



We hit 10/12 on our targets in the first 2 sets with Helton and Aramis being the outliers. We have our 2.5 closers, core SPs, and power base.



The rest of our team shaped up with: Napoli/Snyder (C)

Theriot/Yunel/Guzman (MI) Cuddyer/Buck/Gomes/Wilkerson/JBautista/Podsednik (OF) Lester/Guthrie/JPatt/NRobertson/Moylan/KKendrick/Germano (P)



It's going to be an interesting year. Good luck all!

[EliGrimmett]

This was my against the grain approach to the Main Event from the 15-Hole.



15/16: Soriano/Ortiz - If they put up their 2007 numbers I'll be happy. If they put up their 2006 numbers I just might win.



45/46: Cano/Kinsler - Likewise, if they put up their 2007 line I won't be too disappointed, but I expect progression from both of them.



If all four players put up their 2007 line I'd have an average player with 27 HR, 101 R, 86 RBI, 12 SB, and a .301 BA. Not too shabby.



75/76: Zimmerman/Delmon Y. - This was the first big decision I made. My choices, as I saw it, were between Delmon Young and Josh Hamilton. I actually like Hamilton a little more than Young, but I needed a few more SB and I like Young's extended track record (however slight it may be.) And of the two I thought there might be a slim chance that Hamilton would make it back to me.



105/106: Sheets/R. Hill - Hamilton was sniped at pick 103 and would have been taken by Buster at pick 104, so I opted for who believe to be one of the best pitchers in the league, albeit a very brittle one, with Sheets. Hill was a given as I drafted him last year and am quite biased (a bad thing usually.)



135/136: Taveras/Lincecum - I hated the "Judy" pick, but I needed speed to reach my targets and Buster swiped Bourn at pick 134.



165/166: Kouzmanoff/Weaver - If you've read any of my past posts you know that I love Kouzmanoff. I believe he has the ability to hit 30 HR, but he'll have to swat most of them on the road.



195/196: S. Drew/Molina - I have a friend who works at Chase Field and swears up and down that Drew is going to have a huge year. Last year this friend told us that Byrnes would steal 40 bags. I hope he's right again.



225/226: Jacobs/Maddux - It was between Votto and Jacobs and I know Jacobs is the starter and will hit in the middle of the order so I opted for him.



My Team:



C Paulino

C Molina

1B Jacobs

2B Cano

3B Zimmerman

SS Drew

CI Kouzmanoff

MI Kinsler

U Ortiz

OF Soriano

OF Delmon Y.

OF Taveras

OF Diaz

OF Maybin



Sheets

R. Hill

Lincecum

Weaver

Maddux

Blanton

Garland

El Duque

James



Bench:

Quentin

Jenkins

D. Ross

J. Bautista

Jack Wilson

Moyer

Maholm



As you can see I punted SV. I've read many times on these boards and elsewhere that the overall title cannot be won by punting SV. I figured I'd try to prove everyone wrong. Not sure if this is the team that will do it. We shall see. As far as I can see my ERA seems a tad high and my R and SB may be a tad low.



Any other thoughts? (other than my team is lacking in SV)

[Dyv]

Eli:



It's not a wive's tale that you can't win while punting any category it's a near statistical fact... Last year out of 3750 possible points Haney's goo put up 3,254. If you punt one category your max then becomes 3,376 - if you can snag an AMAZING 3254/3750 = 86.7% of all the points available you are IN the money. On the other hand, you're going to throw away an easy 100-200 pts and try to win 3254/3376= 96.4% of the other 9 categories?



The good news is there is always closer turnover and if you're smart you'll camp on a few of the closers in waiting and drop your deadweight like Moyer, your backup catcher, etc. or at a bare minimum plan on spending $800 of your FA budget on closers as they happen?



I think your bats are solid but I don't see game-defying full coverage of all batting stats there like you might think... then again if you nail Delmon, Maybin, Drew, Kouzmanoff, Jacobs and Paulino ALL in breakout years you may just have it covered ;P



I like your top 6 SP - careful not to let the bottom 3 drag your peripherals out of contention, though.



I applaud you taking the risk here, but I think you're wrong if you believe you can finish top 20 without getting saves into the mix. You've allowed yourself one thing I try HARD to do myself - focus your weaknesses on one area and work like a dog to uncover the solution for it



Good luck - I'll keep an eye on your team as the season progress, will be curious to see if you cover the hole or just ignore it.



Dyv

[Dyv]

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Jackstraw:

Dyv,



Thanks for the post. That's about the best team I've seen yet (except for mine ).



It also makes me feel a lot better about taking Rowand in the 10th. At the time I didn't even really question it. Later it seemed that he went lower in other drafts. I've got to think though that the upside potential for any Giant is going to be good without Bonds in the clubhouse. I think two of my better picks were Rowand (too early I agree) and Kotsay (24th rd) solely because of the fit on the team and their coaches. Bobby Cox and the Braves will motivate Kotsay into a career year (maybe not next if he is still there). Rowand and the Giants will be tough trying to show they don't need Bonds. There is a grittiness about the Giants that I think will show on the field. They won't win the West, but they will be strong. Bold predictions there jackstraw.



Seems more likely that Kotsay won't be worth a spot in your lineup and is probably in the waiver pool after several weeks, and Rowand disappoints 'til he runs into a wall because there'll be no one to drive in or drive him on in the SF lineup. [/QUOTE]I see 90/20/80/5/290 out of Rowand - solid filler stats but I'm not holding my breath for any more than this. The problem is that if this is what he gives me I'll have gotten 12th round value out of him... but the point of drafting is to get that value PLUS upside and I think I screwed up here by not taking someone like Milledge instead... arguably similar value but with upside that I left on the table.



You can't win this thing by taking 6th round value in the 6th round - you win by getting 4th round value in the 6th round.



Dyv

[EliGrimmett]

I appreciate the comments and honest feedback, but what I think you fail to realize is that the second place team last year pulled 82% of the available points and the 10th place team took home only 75% of the available points. That's a GIANT gap and one that I think can easily be overcome without a closer. To beat the second place team (which was my goal) I figured I'd need to win 81% of the overall points (average over last 3 or 4 years.) Instead of needing to win 81% of the overall points in 10 categories I opted to try for 90% of the overall points in just 9 categories.



In 2006 I punted SV (on accident that time) and still finished with 63% of the available pitching points. I didn't construct my team around only starters and wasted a pick on a failed closer.



Since I planned on punting SV this year I knew I'd have to make up for it by having low ERA and WHIP starters and I thought I could win 70% of the pitching points. If I did that I'd need to win 90% of the hitting points to win 80% of the overall points. Good for second or third place overall.



But, like you said, I'm not sure the offense I've constructed will be able to do that and I'm not sure that the pitching I've constructed will be able to keep my ERA and WHIP low enough. But, this is only the beginning...

[Da bears]

[ March 19, 2008, 05:02 PM: Message edited by: Da bears ]

[KJ Duke]

Originally posted by Dyv:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Jackstraw:

Dyv,



Thanks for the post. That's about the best team I've seen yet (except for mine ).



It also makes me feel a lot better about taking Rowand in the 10th. At the time I didn't even really question it. Later it seemed that he went lower in other drafts. I've got to think though that the upside potential for any Giant is going to be good without Bonds in the clubhouse. I think two of my better picks were Rowand (too early I agree) and Kotsay (24th rd) solely because of the fit on the team and their coaches. Bobby Cox and the Braves will motivate Kotsay into a career year (maybe not next if he is still there). Rowand and the Giants will be tough trying to show they don't need Bonds. There is a grittiness about the Giants that I think will show on the field. They won't win the West, but they will be strong. Bold predictions there jackstraw.



Seems more likely that Kotsay won't be worth a spot in your lineup and is probably in the waiver pool after several weeks, and Rowand disappoints 'til he runs into a wall because there'll be no one to drive in or drive him on in the SF lineup. [/QUOTE]I see 90/20/80/5/290 out of Rowand - solid filler stats but I'm not holding my breath for any more than this. The problem is that if this is what he gives me I'll have gotten 12th round value out of him... but the point of drafting is to get that value PLUS upside and I think I screwed up here by not taking someone like Milledge instead... arguably similar value but with upside that I left on the table.



You can't win this thing by taking 6th round value in the 6th round - you win by getting 4th round value in the 6th round.



Dyv [/QUOTE]Agree on your point and ballpark figures for Rowand over a full season. R/RBI could be optimistic, but more so his style of play makes 26 weeks of playing time unlikely. Also think you could've grabbed a guy like Kearns 5 rounds later for similar numbers.

[EliGrimmett]

In theory if you BEAT the second place team you should WIN. Beating the second place team was my goal.

[JohnZ]

Originally posted by Dyv:

Eli:



It's not a wive's tale that you can't win while punting any category it's a near statistical fact... Last year out of 3750 possible points Haney's goo put up 3,254. If you punt one category your max then becomes 3,376 - if you can snag an AMAZING 3254/3750 = 86.7% of all the points available you are IN the money. On the other hand, you're going to throw away an easy 100-200 pts and try to win 3254/3376= 96.4% of the other 9 categories?



The good news is there is always closer turnover and if you're smart you'll camp on a few of the closers in waiting and drop your deadweight like Moyer, your backup catcher, etc. or at a bare minimum plan on spending $800 of your FA budget on closers as they happen?



I think your bats are solid but I don't see game-defying full coverage of all batting stats there like you might think... then again if you nail Delmon, Maybin, Drew, Kouzmanoff, Jacobs and Paulino ALL in breakout years you may just have it covered ;P



I like your top 6 SP - careful not to let the bottom 3 drag your peripherals out of contention, though.



I applaud you taking the risk here, but I think you're wrong if you believe you can finish top 20 without getting saves into the mix. You've allowed yourself one thing I try HARD to do myself - focus your weaknesses on one area and work like a dog to uncover the solution for it



Good luck - I'll keep an eye on your team as the season progress, will be curious to see if you cover the hole or just ignore it.



Dyv Hey Dave, he's kinda right... you only need one more point than 2nd place guy, not an overload of goo





But I agree with ya, too hard to punt and win no matter what.



I've seen many teams with one closer also. The year I try that is the year the 40% shrinks to 15% for in season FAAB saves...

[Dyv]

Originally posted by EliGrimmett:

I appreciate the comments and honest feedback, but what I think you fail to realize is that the second place team last year pulled 82% of the available points and the 10th place team took home only 75% of the available points. That's a GIANT gap and one that I think can easily be overcome without a closer. To beat the second place team (which was my goal) I figured I'd need to win 81% of the overall points (average over last 3 or 4 years.) Instead of needing to win 81% of the overall points in 10 categories I opted to try for 90% of the overall points in just 9 categories.



In 2006 I punted SV (on accident that time) and still finished with 63% of the available pitching points. I didn't construct my team around only starters and wasted a pick on a failed closer.



Since I planned on punting SV this year I knew I'd have to make up for it by having low ERA and WHIP starters and I thought I could win 70% of the pitching points. If I did that I'd need to win 90% of the hitting points to win 80% of the overall points. Good for second or third place overall.



But, like you said, I'm not sure the offense I've constructed will be able to do that and I'm not sure that the pitching I've constructed will be able to keep my ERA and WHIP low enough. But, this is only the beginning... I can appreciate that... we can't all be Terry Haney's for heaven's sake



Still, i stand by the fact that winning heavily in 9/10 categories would take an awesome feat and you'd still stand a better chance of winning for every single save you can get... in the 45-65 save area last year EVERY save was worth about 5pts. in overall standing. That's a 100 pt. swing from 45 to 65 saves...



3 teams last year got ZERO saves for the year, they finished:



#110

#179

#309



CreativeSports Marc also apparently tried it - finishing #103 and scoring 2 saves for the year.



I've looked at the strategy and tried to sort out the value of it - my best guess is what you do if you do it 'decently' is eliminate yourself from top 50 finish but also eliminate bottom 150 finish... probably lock in a 50-200 overall finish and take a shot at 2nd-3rd place money in your league.



I'll go on record, however, and say that barring your ability to pick up the Howry's and Betancourt types late and having them land gigs and produce 100+ pts. in the saves category that you can't finish top 3 overall.



Now for those who FIXATE on closers... yeah I'd say they're just as screwed ;P



I'd love to see it done - but when that first good looking closer-in-waiting candidate is sitting there ready to be plucked.... I know what you'll do



Dyv

[EliGrimmett]

Right now I have my team pegged for 110 W, 1250 K, a 3.9 ERA, and a 1.28 WHIP. If my team reached these marks I'd attain roughly 70% of all the available pitching points.



If, however, I inserted an optimal closer with a line of 60 IP, 40 SV, 60 K, 3.0 ERA, 1.05 WHIP into my lineup instead of one of my starters, we'll say one of them with a line of 132 IP, 101 K, 9 W, 4.2 ERA, and 1.35 WHIP, I would win 72% of the overall pitching points. [again, this is based on the actual league statistics from the previous 3 years]



So, effectively, I'm looking at a 2% gain in pitching points if I can manage to pick up a TOP TIER closer during the season.



Basically, by punting SV, I need only to hit on ERA and WHIP with my pitchers because I have a built in advantage in W and K because I'm throwing 9 starters every week. Everyone else competing for SV needs to hit on ERA, WHIP, K, W, and SV. I'll take my chances. I'd like to think I'm decent at discovering pitching talent, but I'm not good enough to hit on 5 out of 5 pitching categories. Hitting on 2 out of 5 will be hard enough.



Of course I'm neglecting a lot of in-season strategies such as double start weeks, etc., but I'd like to think I'm right, so don't rain on my happy parade dang it!



Offense is another story all-together.

[Dyv]

Originally posted by EliGrimmett:

I'd like to think I'm right, so don't rain on my happy parade dang it!

Ha!!! I only replied because you asked for thoughts sorry for bagging on your gameplan!!



Got time to analyze my team? I think I took a classic rounded team - left holes in OF which I think I can repair but largely covered most everything else.



I like my pitching in the same area, btw - but I plan on rotating in among my 10 SP for matchups and double start weeks while still locking down 2 spots for closers.



I'd appreciate anyone's thoughts plus/minus - I've cut it up 50 different ways already, any new knives?



Dyv

[EliGrimmett]

Honestly, I'd call it an average team with potential holes from Nix, Headley, Wilkerson, and ?Pierre? who all seem to be starters for your team if I'm reading your lineup correctly. Obviously your BIG hitters will be a force, but I don't see them being enough to overcome the holes. You could be looking at 400 AB's apiece from 5 of your starting hitters.



Between your closers you have injury risk and job-loss risk. Harden has huge upside and Cain has moderate upside, but they'll both need to be realized to catch up in K and W even with double starters rotated all year.



Luckily Nix is looking like the front-runner right now, and Headley is smashing, too. If they both surprise and Wilkerson doesn't do too badly your team would bump up to 60 - 65% of the overall points, but as far as I can see, you have a lot of work to do. Like I said, though, this is only the beginning and I expect you'll overcome a lot of your teams weaknesses.

[CC's Desperados]

DYV-



Your offense looks solid except for Queen Pierre. If he ends up in Torre's dog house, you might have a tough time finding that many steals from one player. I think your middle infield is serviceable and complaimnet your first five picks. Your outfield will give you plenty at bats.



You have a couple of risks on your pitching staff and I wasn't even thinking of Harden. As we all know, he is a key to your team and mine. I guess will take it a start at a time with him. If we can get past the first bump in the road with him, I'm hoping he breaks last year record of 26 innings in April....then we can lay eyes on the 46 in 2006 in May. Smoltz is a solid starter, but he had a could of issues last year and he isn't getting any younger. I think you understand the risk with Wagner and Borowski. Other than that, it look slike you will need to find a couple of back end starter. A guy of your back ground should be able to do that is his sleep!



I'm sure I will see you on the LEADERBOARD!

[God Our Team Sucks]

Hey Dyv -- Long time.... Bummed I didn't get to see you LV. Saw Clark though, so that was cool!



Anyway, here's my roster / thinking... LV2 - Pick 11, same league as Captain Hook, John Dean, and superstar Lopi Asch just for starters.



1. Miguel Cabrera / Ryan Braun left at #10, so I'm hoping for Cabrera but not too displeased with Braun at #11.

2. Teixeira, the guy I'd hoped for.

3. Tulowitzki and Markakis fall to me at #41, take Tulo, my new favorite player. I know you're not supposed to have favorites, but I ain't going to spend the season rooting for a punk like Gary Sheffield.

4. Brandon Webb, a little early maybe but I'm okay.

5. Victorino, again too early, but hoping to avoid Pierre-types later.

6. Mariano Rivera - disaster. Logic is I'm going to go get Joba Chamberlain later, and that locks up NYY's saves. But way too early, given that he'd have been there two rounds later.

7. Brad Hawpe. Like Coors hitters, even if he sucks vs LHPs.

8. James Loney. I think he can really hit, even though the lack of power is a concern. The problem is that not only did I make a stretch pick, I now have 1B / COR locked up, and have ruined Billy Butler / Lyle Overbay strategy for later on.

9. Matt Capps, a safe closer due to impeccable mechanics, but now I've committed two top ten picks to closers, something I didn't want to do. 10. Francisco Cordero. Double Draft-police disaster.

11. Joba-land. opens in the pen, joins rotation in May, becomes the best pitcher in baseball for a while.... Hmmmm....

12. Aaron Hill. Shouldn't have lasted to round 12

13. Johjima. A decent catcher with decent batting average.

14. Justin Upton. Boom/bust. Only Upton still on the board.

15. Bronson Arroyo. Yikes, I have no starting pitchers! Little did I know that I'd screw up and miss out on almost every single one I wanted late (Parra, Cueto, Villaneuva, Kershaw, Sonnanstine, Owings)

16. Billy Butler. Another fave.

17. Scott Baker. Will start slowly, but worth a shot.

18. Coco Crisp. Either a dumb pick or a good one if a Bosox OF gets hurt or he gets traded early enough.

19. Gorzelanny. Pitcher-scared pick. Underestimated that Capt Hook would take both Parra and Kershaw before next turn.

20. Akinori Iwamura. Like the position flexibility and figured he might be undervalued.

21. Felix Pie. Piling on more guys with upside who've never done it.

22. Dioner Navarro. Some upside from 2H-07 / minor league record. But a ton of guys I liked go before my next turn.

23. Boof Bonser. The last SP from my "late pitchers" list.

24. Jonathan Sanchez. He can strike people out.

25. Steve Pearce. He can hit the ball a long way.

26. Jack Wilson. Needed a MID till Iwamura eligible at 2B.

27. Manny Delcarmen. Japan? A much better pick if I'd had one less closer.

28. Ronnie Belliard. A week zero pick, maybe a little longer.

29. Rick Van Den Hurk. He can strike people out.

30. Carlos Gonzalez. Foolish pick, didn't know he was hurt.



Ends up like this



CA Johjima / Navarro

COR Teixeira / Braun / Loney

MID A Hill / Tulowitzki / Iwamura*

OF Victorino / Hawpe / Justin Upton / Crisp / Pie

UT Billy Butler



SP B Webb / Joba* / Arroyo / S. Baker / Gorzelanny / Bonser

RP Mariano / Capps / Francisco Cordero



Bats: Steve Pearce / Jack Wilson / Belliard

Arms: Jonathan Sanchez / Delcarmen / Vandenhurk



Poolbound: Carlos Gonzalez



EP

[Chest Rockwell]

Originally posted by God Our Team Sucks:

Hey Dyv -- Long time.... Bummed I didn't get to see you LV. Saw Clark though, so that was cool!



Anyway, here's my roster / thinking... LV2 - Pick 11, same league as Captain Hook, John Dean, and superstar Lopi Asch just for starters.



1. Miguel Cabrera / Ryan Braun left at #10, so I'm hoping for Cabrera but not too displeased with Braun at #11.

2. Teixeira, the guy I'd hoped for.

3. Tulowitzki and Markakis fall to me at #41, take Tulo, my new favorite player. I know you're not supposed to have favorites, but I ain't going to spend the season rooting for a punk like Gary Sheffield.

4. Brandon Webb, a little early maybe but I'm okay.

5. Victorino, again too early, but hoping to avoid Pierre-types later.

6. Mariano Rivera - disaster. Logic is I'm going to go get Joba Chamberlain later, and that locks up NYY's saves. But way too early, given that he'd have been there two rounds later.

7. Brad Hawpe. Like Coors hitters, even if he sucks vs LHPs.

8. James Loney. I think he can really hit, even though the lack of power is a concern. The problem is that not only did I make a stretch pick, I now have 1B / COR locked up, and have ruined Billy Butler / Lyle Overbay strategy for later on.

9. Matt Capps, a safe closer due to impeccable mechanics, but now I've committed two top ten picks to closers, something I didn't want to do. 10. Francisco Cordero. Double Draft-police disaster.

11. Joba-land. opens in the pen, joins rotation in May, becomes the best pitcher in baseball for a while.... Hmmmm....

12. Aaron Hill. Shouldn't have lasted to round 12

13. Johjima. A decent catcher with decent batting average.

14. Justin Upton. Boom/bust. Only Upton still on the board.

15. Bronson Arroyo. Yikes, I have no starting pitchers! Little did I know that I'd screw up and miss out on almost every single one I wanted late (Parra, Cueto, Villaneuva, Kershaw, Sonnanstine, Owings)

16. Billy Butler. Another fave.

17. Scott Baker. Will start slowly, but worth a shot.

18. Coco Crisp. Either a dumb pick or a good one if a Bosox OF gets hurt or he gets traded early enough.

19. Gorzelanny. Pitcher-scared pick. Underestimated that Capt Hook would take both Parra and Kershaw before next turn.

20. Akinori Iwamura. Like the position flexibility and figured he might be undervalued.

21. Felix Pie. Piling on more guys with upside who've never done it.

22. Dioner Navarro. Some upside from 2H-07 / minor league record. But a ton of guys I liked go before my next turn.

23. Boof Bonser. The last SP from my "late pitchers" list.

24. Jonathan Sanchez. He can strike people out.

25. Steve Pearce. He can hit the ball a long way.

26. Jack Wilson. Needed a MID till Iwamura eligible at 2B.

27. Manny Delcarmen. Japan? A much better pick if I'd had one less closer.

28. Ronnie Belliard. A week zero pick, maybe a little longer.

29. Rick Van Den Hurk. He can strike people out.

30. Carlos Gonzalez. Foolish pick, didn't know he was hurt.



Ends up like this



CA Johjima / Navarro

COR Teixeira / Braun / Loney

MID A Hill / Tulowitzki / Iwamura*

OF Victorino / Hawpe / Justin Upton / Crisp / Pie

UT Billy Butler



SP B Webb / Joba* / Arroyo / S. Baker / Gorzelanny / Bonser

RP Mariano / Capps / Francisco Cordero



Bats: Steve Pearce / Jack Wilson / Belliard

Arms: Jonathan Sanchez / Delcarmen / Vandenhurk



Poolbound: Carlos Gonzalez



EP Trade one of those closers for a number 2 starter and you have an excellent squad IMO- even with that "mistake" you may want to change your screen name.

[Dyv]

Originally posted by EliGrimmett:

Honestly, I'd call it an average team with potential holes from Nix, Headley, Wilkerson, and ?Pierre? who all seem to be starters for your team if I'm reading your lineup correctly. Obviously your BIG hitters will be a force, but I don't see them being enough to overcome the holes. You could be looking at 400 AB's apiece from 5 of your starting hitters.



Between your closers you have injury risk and job-loss risk. Harden has huge upside and Cain has moderate upside, but they'll both need to be realized to catch up in K and W even with double starters rotated all year.



Luckily Nix is looking like the front-runner right now, and Headley is smashing, too. If they both surprise and Wilkerson doesn't do too badly your team would bump up to 60 - 65% of the overall points, but as far as I can see, you have a lot of work to do. Like I said, though, this is only the beginning and I expect you'll overcome a lot of your teams weaknesses. Well I'm not sure I see a team anywhere that has no holes... I am reliant for one category quite a bit on Pierre that's a true statement, but I read in about 10 different places how he's a lock and it's Kemp that could lose some PT. Though other reports have Pierre available for cheap too so who knows how he ends up. I still don't see the risk of him not taking up 550+ AB (barring injury) - pretty sure my spot taking him in the 10th was one of the lowest all over the place so it's not like I sold out for him. I'm expecting 400 ab and 35-40 SB from him and I'll be content. Anything more than that is a bonus.



Wins is a silly category, I pretty much dismiss that as mostly unpredictable though by playing matchups I sure try



I think you're spot on though - my OF can be either 'ok' or a problem - and Headley could be a sweet round 26'er. I THINK my bigger hitters can make up for some uncertainty there, but I will need to spot fill some OF holes throughout the year and yeah, I need health in some older guys (Ortiz, Smoltz).



Still, if I can start the season eyeballing some issues and maybe a 60-65% points and either have some payoff or 'manage' another 10% I'll be content for sure.



I kind of laughingly said to myself maybe i can connect 2/3 of a year from Harden and 1/3 of a year from Schilling and use 2 spots on one top 3 SP statistically, but we'll see.



Thanks for your time and thoughts here,



Dyv

[Dyv]

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

DYV-



Your offense looks solid except for Queen Pierre. If he ends up in Torre's dog house, you might have a tough time finding that many steals from one player. I think your middle infield is serviceable and complaimnet your first five picks. Your outfield will give you plenty at bats.



You have a couple of risks on your pitching staff and I wasn't even thinking of Harden. As we all know, he is a key to your team and mine. I guess will take it a start at a time with him. If we can get past the first bump in the road with him, I'm hoping he breaks last year record of 26 innings in April....then we can lay eyes on the 46 in 2006 in May. Smoltz is a solid starter, but he had a could of issues last year and he isn't getting any younger. I think you understand the risk with Wagner and Borowski. Other than that, it look slike you will need to find a couple of back end starter. A guy of your back ground should be able to do that is his sleep!



I'm sure I will see you on the LEADERBOARD! Yeah, I'm sure this is another 'need' really - I'm heartened by the fact that Harden could be a 5th round talent that I stole in the 15th round... trivia: How many baseball-injury surgeries has Harden had so far in his ML career?



We'll see how it works out but he's a bonus baby for sure.



I like Wagner with 3 yrs. in a row of 65+ IP and 30 saves... he's not lost his heat yet, but yeah older pitcher clearly greater risk... Borowski scares the hell out of me... I felt I had to get Betancourt to back him up and he's not a bad MR regardless. I can't remember handcuffing like that before, but sometimes old dogs gotta learn new tricks, lol



SCOURING waivers will be a full time job for me for the season... hehe



Thanks for your time on this - I'm interested to see how your 'non traditional' (for you) strat works out this year - clever mix as you sought value always...



Dyv

[EliGrimmett]

Pierre in the tenth round is actually a pretty good pick. I took Taveras in the tenth as well - Pierre was gone in the 5th! in our league. I've got Pierre and Taveras for roughly the same stats, although I think Taveras has more power potential playing in Colorado and all...in fact, I think he'll hit at least one more home run than Pierre! [probably end up one to nothing - sad]

[Dyv]

Originally posted by God Our Team Sucks:

Hey Dyv -- Long time.... Bummed I didn't get to see you LV. Saw Clark though, so that was cool!

EP Eric!!!! I talked to Clark a bit as well - how the heck did I miss catching up with you?



I'm a little surprised you vested so much in the young unproven... perhaps you felt your draft was closer heavy and you needed to find deep upside/accelerated risk?



I suspect you're best picks, in order:



1. Round 24 Jonathan Sanchez

2. Round 25 Steven Pearce

3. Round 12 Aaron Hill



I'm actually kind of liking your backup plans everywhere... you don't need 'one' thing to work you need 'one of them' to work.. I just left holes with no obvious solutions and figured I'll work it out.



I like your strat better



Dyv