Handicapping the Main Event

Team Herron · Post by **Team Herron** » Wed Mar 19, 2008 4:00 am

Haviing dinner after the Ultimate on Sunday, we had a fun discussion about what would be the odds needed to book the NFBC:

We spent our time debating Shawn Childs and what his odds would be to win the main event and his league.

I think he is a 10/11 favorite for his league title, but 12-1 or so on the main event. what do you guys think?

If I get time, it might be fun to handicap the Ultimate leagues, since its easier with 15 players.

Jesse

[ March 19, 2008, 10:00 AM: Message edited by: Team Herron ]

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Wed Mar 19, 2008 4:23 am

Jesse - nice idea. Always fun to identify the favorites.

Overall handicapping would be somewhat difficult to gauge with all the newcomers, but if Vegas were to have a line on Shawn, I'd say between 8 to 1 and 10 to 1.

There are also a few others that have had repeated success that I'd place up there:

Shawn Childs 10 to 1

David DiDonato 10 to 1

Stephen Jupinka 12 to 1

Dan Kenyon 12 to 1

Matt Mickle 12 to 1

Oseph Anello 15 to 1

Eddie Gillis 20 to 1 (still one of the most underrated players in the game)

Just from taking a quick look at overall and league titles...

Fun concept, great thread for debates!

Sorry for those I left off...have to get back to work!

751542 · Post by **751542** » Wed Mar 19, 2008 4:58 am

team herron...

if u want to book the childs bet to win his division let me know...i will gladly take those odds

. we can do thomas vs. childs or the field vs. childs. i assume i am a 4-1 underdog if he is 11/10. i would do that for a dime(a gamblers dime!!) or i will take the field @ 2-1. let me know asap. payable at next years event..RT

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Wed Mar 19, 2008 5:15 am

Jason Bay won't be on this year's winning team; so put me on the "don't pass" line for Shawn.

[ March 19, 2008, 11:15 AM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

captain · Post by **captain** » Wed Mar 19, 2008 5:33 am

10/11 to win his own league.

I ditto what Rick said... What is the field odds 2/1 ???

Give me the field for a dime !!!

RedRyder · Post by **RedRyder** » Wed Mar 19, 2008 5:35 am

I'm ALL-IN on RT! (regardless the line!)

Team Herron · Post by **Team Herron** » Wed Mar 19, 2008 5:39 am

Rick,

I wont book your dime for that bet, but I will take it heads up my team vs yours in the Ultimate. We can do something smaller as well. Let me know.

Jesse

[ March 19, 2008, 11:40 AM: Message edited by: Team Herron ]

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Wed Mar 19, 2008 6:31 am

I learned long ago not to bet anymore!

Are you guys in the same league? Should be very tight from beginning to end. I see you also have a league title under your belt.

Team Herron · Post by **Team Herron** » Wed Mar 19, 2008 8:38 am

We are in the same ultimate league. RT nabbed me last year when Bedard's oblique got sore as I made the precipitous fall from 2nd to finish 1/3 of an IP (.0001 of whip) out of the money.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Mar 19, 2008 8:49 am

Originally posted by Team Herron:

We are in the same ultimate league. RT nabbed me last year when Bedard's oblique got sore as I made the precipitous fall from 2nd to finish 1/3 of an IP (.0001 of whip) out of the money. Jesse, as your therapist, I must advise you to stop reliving those last two days of the 2007 season. It's time to move forward!!

Team Herron · Post by **Team Herron** » Wed Mar 19, 2008 8:52 am

$10k on 1/3rd of an inning pitched. Not easy to get over. Once the first pitch is in the air this season, I will let it go.

I recognize I sound like Shawn...if we'd only boxed the 8 horse we'd have hit the $80k superfecta. However, change isnt easy.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Mar 19, 2008 9:16 am

Originally posted by Team Herron:

$10k on 1/3rd of an inning pitched. Not easy to get over. Once the first pitch is in the air this season, I will let it go.

I recognize I sound like Shawn...if we'd only boxed the 8 horse we'd have hit the $80k superfecta. However, change isnt easy. Yes, I heard that from Shawn for 10 strong minutes. "We would have won $80,000 if I had just included the 8 horse." But learn from him. He was right back on the next race, boxing that 8 and others and still losing!!!

Brady was his bad luck charm that night.

2008 is your year!!! That 1/3 of an inning HAS to go your way this year.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Wed Mar 19, 2008 12:21 pm

Rick Thomas taking on Shwan or the field , i love it . You get em Roundtrippers.

751542 · Post by **751542** » Wed Mar 19, 2008 1:01 pm

my confidence comes from the fact that if i didnt think i could win every event i wouldnt enter the events. i come to win period!!! go big or stay home. i hope most participants feel the same as i!!! RT

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Wed Mar 19, 2008 1:10 pm

Originally posted by RoundTrippers:

my confidence comes from the fact that if i didnt think i could win every event i wouldnt enter the events. i come to win period!!! go big or stay home. i hope most participants feel the same as i!!! RT you said it RT!

Team Herron · Post by **Team Herron** » Wed Mar 19, 2008 3:42 pm

I agree RT, do we have a side bet in the Ultimate?

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Wed Mar 19, 2008 3:50 pm

Well I'll bet a buck on me. Thats a real buck not a gambling one.

751542 · Post by **751542** » Fri Mar 21, 2008 6:52 am

alright herron.....dime on RT for more points in ultimate...payable next years baseball draft...agreed?? should be an easy bet since i have liriano starting off in triple a!!