Brian Wilson Dropped NY3

mdz129 · Post by **mdz129** » Sun Jul 06, 2008 11:34 pm

Greg and Tom,

Brian Wilson CL SF has been dropped in NY3, because the owner already has 105 saves. Will he be removed from the pool? In my opinion--he should be--only because it probably will influence the overall standing.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 12:14 am

please, the guy has a SEASON whip of 1.40 and an era of 4.37. wilson is also a good bet to get less save opps the 2nd half of the season. he only has value in ONE category. valuable, yes. pull from the free agent pool, no.

ps - did childs approve your message b4 you posted?

[ July 07, 2008, 06:15 AM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

mdz129 · Post by **mdz129** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 1:31 am

Mark,

Okay let's leave him in the pool. Anyone else care if Brian Wilson is left in NY3's free agent pool?

There is risk/reward with Wilson--are you a bidder?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 1:42 am

Ya, I'll throw a bid on him, but neither of us have the cash flow to get him.

Asumijet · Post by **Asumijet** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:43 am

As someone who is currently competing with Mark in the overall, you could see this drop issue coming for weeks now. It is interesting that Jupiter, the team that dropped Wilson, is in 2nd place in NY3 and potentially gains on Mark in close WHIP and ERA races should Mark get Wilson. So picking up Wilson is not without risk to Mark in NY3.

That said, Mark is clearly not playing for the league championship. And assuming Wilson earns +15 saves the remainder of the season, a reasonable prediction that would equate to about a 100 point gain in the overall standings minus a little regression in other cats. Based on the standings as of today, that is potentially a $14,000 pick-up.

So, should the NL leader in saves be on the open market? It is a tough call in my opinion. I would like to see the FAAB remaining in the league before I passed any judgment. I do know that I will be envious and a little frustrated to see him get an established closer at this stage in the game. But envy and frustration are not exactly measures of fairness.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:53 am

From what I know, there are two reasons why I player would be pulled from a league free agent pool…

First is collusion, of which there is none here.

Second is if the player is “star” caliber. If a redraft was done today, Wilson likely wouldn’t even go in the first 10 rounds. It’s not like Wilson is an elite player at his position. He’s an average closer who only provides value in one category, much like a speed guy. Juan Pierre wouldn’t get pulled.

mdz129 · Post by **mdz129** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 3:25 am

Mark,

I will agree with your logic--he is a one category player and a slight negative in 4.

But I would still be ticked if I was in the top 10 overall--when a potential difference maker appears because of excess by another team.

I know in single leagues, closers are dropped all the time after the all star break and you learn and adjust for that when you draft. main event leagues rarely have closer drops.

Interesting weeks never end for the men from Wisconsin

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 3:27 am

No question he should stay in the pool, he's a one category player.

gsjanoff · Post by **gsjanoff** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 3:29 am

To say that Wilson would not go in the first 10 rounds is not a completely fair statement.

It is most likely an accurate statement, but one that truly does not reflect his overall value in the game.

If we were talking about an NFBC draft done 2 years ago, as opposed to now, he probably would have been a 6th rounder, but NFBC players seemed to have wised up as a group and the overall trend is that closers are going later and later as owners realize that its such a volatile position.

The simple fact is that he is the closer on a team that routinely plays alot of close games because they don't score much and have decent starting pitching and in a contest like this, he could be a game changer, and thus should be removed from the pool in my opinion.

I think the potential 15+ saves would play a bigger role on the overall standings than the potential damage to WHIP and ERA in limited innings would over that same period of time.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 3:33 am

Originally posted by mdz129:

main event leagues rarely have closer drops.

i don't think this is accurate.

[ July 07, 2008, 09:36 AM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 3:34 am

Originally posted by gsjanoff:

It is most likely an accurate statement, but one that truly does not reflect his overall value in the game.

what??? his value is ONE category. ONE out of five.

Sheep · Post by **Sheep** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 3:40 am

Originally posted by mdz129:

Greg and Tom,

Brian Wilson CL SF has been dropped in NY3, because the owner already has 105 saves. Will he be removed from the pool? In my opinion--he should be--only because it probably will influence the overall standing. Wow - 105 saves!

Tough call - I certainly feel that it is a good strategy for some teams save FAAB to acquire drops like Todd Jones from early saves leaders and the elimination of these players from the FA pool plays directly against that strategy.

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

He’s an average closer who only provides value in one category, much like a speed guy. Juan Pierre wouldn’t get pulled. I don't put Brian Wilson in the Todd Jones (or Juan Pierre) one category classification, as he does strikeout guys (and leads in NL in saves) at pace of over 1/ip.

Does B Wilson have more influence on the overall standings then Victor Martinez (who was removed from the pool)?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 3:48 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

No question he should stay in the pool, he's a one category player. absolutley

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 4:33 am

This is a unique situation as the owner who dropped Wilson in NY3 has 105 saves and second place has 75 and third place has 49. The move makes sense for this owner, who is in second place in his league and going for the league title. I've looked at the FAAB available as well and there are plenty of folks who have much more money than the top team and those teams can use Wilson to move up in the league standings as well.

Wilson has had eight saves in the last month, but yes he is an All-Star and an NL leader in this category. But he does come with risk. We will have to make these tough calls throughout the last 13 weeks of the season as I realize, but last week we did leave in some other closers and at this point I am leaning that way in this league. After looking over this league closely, it makes sense for those involved. But I'll make a final ruling shortly; just know that I'm looking over all of the cuts now.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 5:26 am

One thing I will add to my post above is that if I decide to keep Wilson in this league's player pool, that isn't the bar for future cuts of closers. In other words, if this owner decides to cut all of his closers to pick up ground in other categories, I will rule in the best interest of the overall competition even if those closers are less worthy than Wilson. I am making rulings on the best interest of the overall competition while still allowing the leagues to play out and each ruling will be made individually with that in mind, not with one player being compared to others.

I understand the severity of allowing closers in the free agent pool to be picked up where they aren't being available in other leagues. And I will watch this carefully to make sure it's fair for everyone.

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:12 am

Greg, Rules? There seems to be no rules. Don't tell me Geeko will point you into the decision he wants!

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 7:24 am

you are making this personal. please don't. thanks

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 8:09 am

as an outsider and without looking at the league as i know greg will, it looks like the owner is attempting to better his team, all the while it may benefit another owner/team. it doesn't sound like collusion, so let the bidding begin.

[ July 07, 2008, 02:10 PM: Message edited by: cleaver beavers ]

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 9:35 am

I did just talk with the owner in this league and let's admit that he is in an interesting position. He made five late round gambles on closers and all of them paid off. They included George Sherrill in Round 12, Brian Wilson in Round 14, Brandon Lyon in Round 15, Kerry Wood in Round 21 and Jon Rauch in Round 23. He now has 105 saves and four active closers.

It's possible that he will need to shed more closers soon, so I now have a good idea what his plans will be for the near future. That helps me in my decision process. Other owners have also contacted me this morning to let me know that they are in a similar situation and may have to shed a good closer or two to help their teams within their leagues. So there are plenty of things to consider going forward on all of these moves.

Do we make one blanket decision on all closers or analyze each cut? That's what I need to decide on. A no-cut list certainly wouldn't help here as closers can be had at any point in the draft. Stay tuned.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 10:12 am

Im with Gekko on this one , hell he's even keeping Lyon over Wilson which tells me he's expecting rough seas with Wilson in the future.

Hey you will start seeing this more as the year goes on and you cant keep guy's out just because they get saves.This will open a can of worms if you take a shitty closer [by his numbers] out , if you take out Wilson then you could take out almost all closers.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 1:32 pm

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Hey you will start seeing this more as the year goes on and you cant keep guy's out just because they get saves.This will open a can of worms if you take a shitty closer [by his numbers] out , if you take out Wilson then you could take out almost all closers. agreed.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 1:41 pm

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Do we make one blanket decision on all closers or analyze each cut? analyze each cut.

EVERY situation is unique.

As long as several owners have more faab than the top teams that need him, he should be back in the pool. If this is not the case, then you have to pull him as perception is as bad as reality.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 1:58 pm

Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Do we make one blanket decision on all closers or analyze each cut? analyze each cut.

EVERY situation is unique.

As long as several owners have more faab than the top teams that need him, he should be back in the pool. If this is not the case, then you have to pull him as perception is as bad as reality. [/QUOTE]so are you saying a player could be available in one league free agent pool, but pulled in another leagues free agent pool???

if it's not collusion or not a star player, the player should stay in the faab pool.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:37 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Do we make one blanket decision on all closers or analyze each cut? analyze each cut.

EVERY situation is unique.

As long as several owners have more faab than the top teams that need him, he should be back in the pool. If this is not the case, then you have to pull him as perception is as bad as reality. [/QUOTE]so are you saying a player could be available in one league free agent pool, but pulled in another leagues free agent pool???

if it's not collusion or not a star player, the player should stay in the faab pool. [/QUOTE]I don't agree with that. When you have a player being cut in only one main event league, you need to analyze the ramifications for everyone. And that's what I'll do. Now, will Wilson get cut in other leagues? That's something I have to consider and then rule correctly in each case.

All of this is still being reviewed. Tom and I talked about it today and will again tomorrow. I realize that more closers will be cut this year and it makes it tough on us. But it's the nature of the beast, especially this year when so many guys with a lot of saves were acquired late in drafts.

gsjanoff · Post by **gsjanoff** » Mon Jul 07, 2008 3:50 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by gsjanoff:

It is most likely an accurate statement, but one that truly does not reflect his overall value in the game.

what??? his value is ONE category. ONE out of five. [/QUOTE]Whatever # of saves he gets the rest of the year even if it is one category, should far outweigh the negative value from WHIP or ERA or both, when factoring in the total # of innings pitched by your average staff in this game.

15 saves just in league standings alone could net you 6 or 7 points in most leagues.

It would seem very unreasonable to assume you could lose that many points in WHIP/ERA in a likely maximum of 25 innings pitched.

The gain nationally could be even more vast, and that is why this should not even be up for debate in my opinion.

He should be pulled from the free agent pool.