NFBC CHAMPIONS MAGAZINE LEAGUE FIRST PICK

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 3:18 am

1. Hanley Ramirez

Good or bad that'll be my pick.

DiamondKing · Post by **DiamondKing** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 5:55 am

Great,Back to the drawing board.I had him down for my pick at 10.

Asumijet · Post by **Asumijet** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 7:05 am

Originally posted by Walla Walla:

1. Hanley Ramirez

Good or bad that'll be my pick. Bad pick, because I wanted him at #2.

2. Alex Rodriguez (if Hanley is not available)

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 8:13 am

Originally posted by Asumijet:

quote:Originally posted by Walla Walla:

1. Hanley Ramirez

Good or bad that'll be my pick. Bad pick, because I wanted him at #2.

2. Alex Rodriguez (if Hanley is not available) [/QUOTE]I think the top of the draft is fun to debate as we are doing our rankings for our first baseball magazine right now. What makes you pick Hanley over Reyes (not questioning it because we have them ranked that way too) and what makes you pick A-Rod over David Wright?? Those four seem destined for somewhere near the top, so explain what you like about one SS over the other and one 3B over the other. Just curious.

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 8:30 am

No love for Albert?

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 8:37 am

Is there even a real comparison between Hanley and Reyes? He is just a better player, fantasy-wise anyway(Reyes is probably better defensively...but noone here cares)

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 8:38 am

Originally posted by Raskolnikov:

No love for Albert? It's possible that he will go somewhere in the Top 5, but speed will be hard to find this year and there are some good speed options early on. Make a case for Albert and we'll analyze him as well.

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 8:41 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by Raskolnikov:

No love for Albert? It's possible that he will go somewhere in the Top 5, but speed will be hard to find this year and there are some good speed options early on. Make a case for Albert and we'll analyze him as well. [/QUOTE]I'll make my case on Tuesday

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 8:41 am

Originally posted by Schwks:

Is there even a real comparison between Hanley and Reyes? He is just a better player, fantasy-wise anyway(Reyes is probably better defensively...but noone here cares) There are some who wouldn't mind starting their team with 60-70 SBs in a season where it seems stolen bases are going to be hard to find, and Hanley could be running less this year. It's a worthy debate.

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 8:53 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by Schwks:

Is there even a real comparison between Hanley and Reyes? He is just a better player, fantasy-wise anyway(Reyes is probably better defensively...but noone here cares) There are some who wouldn't mind starting their team with 60-70 SBs in a season where it seems stolen bases are going to be hard to find, and Hanley could be running less this year. It's a worthy debate. [/QUOTE]First round picks, in my opinion, are about safety & security. You want to guarantee performance in statistical categories. Reyes & Hanley will guarantee a blend of speed and power, with Reyes more speedy and with Hanley being better at power.

Pujols is a career .334 hitter with excellent power. Making up AVG in later rounds is, I think, more difficult that plucking the next Taveras off the draft board.

It's so early....who can tell how this will play out.

Asumijet · Post by **Asumijet** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 9:14 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by Asumijet:

quote:Originally posted by Walla Walla:

1. Hanley Ramirez

Good or bad that'll be my pick. Bad pick, because I wanted him at #2.

2. Alex Rodriguez (if Hanley is not available) [/QUOTE]I think the top of the draft is fun to debate as we are doing our rankings for our first baseball magazine right now. What makes you pick Hanley over Reyes (not questioning it because we have them ranked that way too) and what makes you pick A-Rod over David Wright?? Those four seem destined for somewhere near the top, so explain what you like about one SS over the other and one 3B over the other. Just curious. [/QUOTE]If I am going to pay for a top 5 pick, I want to be able to write down some stats and know they will be there at the end of the year. With Wright and ARod, which are 1A and 1B in my book, I will write down the following baseline numbers:

Wright- 110R, 30HR, 110RBI, 15SB and .310Avg

ARod- 110R, 35HR, 110RBI, 15SB and .310Avg

They are essentially the same. In fact, if I am picking third and ARod and HRam are gone, I would pick Wright. The difference in my mind between the two is not the projected 5 HR difference, but the upside of each. ARod's baseline numbers are from 2008 (injury), 2006 and 2004. And those are his down years. For Wright his numbers are a three-year trend, all strong seasons by Wright. ARod has proven his upside to be 50HRs 130RBI. Wright has not proven as much of a significant upside. Wright may very well light it up next year and approach a great ARod season. However, given the choice, I am going with the proven upside.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 2:03 pm

With A-Rod, you have to account for how we are coming up on an odd numbered year.

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 2:11 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

With A-Rod, you have to account for how we are coming up on an odd numbered year. Let's not forget the Material Girl.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 2:34 pm

According to Shandler, ARod's chances of breaking out at 33(?) are significantly less then Wright's at 25. Plus is REALLY sux to have to root for ARod

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 2:43 pm

I picked Hanley Ramirez because I thought the combo of power, speed and average put him on top. My number two would be A-Rod. His average and speed aren’t up to par and he’s getting older. Plus I think New York is wearing him down.But still he's Arod. The third player I would pick is David Wright. Good steady player. Not Arod power wise but can meet every other Cat. Jose Reyes I didn’t think about this high. I think of him as a two Cat player. Runs and SB’s. Stolen Bases are always nice to have but your giving up RBI’s,HR’s and AVG. on a high first round pick. SB’s aren’t worth that much!

Jesse Homer · Post by **Jesse Homer** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 3:21 pm

I'am sure someone can help? But what are they saying about the new ballparks in New York. The only thing I heard was they think the new Yankee stadium will be the same as the ole one.

Bama · Post by **Bama** » Wed Dec 10, 2008 3:43 pm

last year reyes .297 113 16 68 56 to ramirez .301 125 33 67 35. looks about even to me. i dont see the slam dunk ramirez over reyes that some of you guys do.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Dec 11, 2008 5:19 am

Originally posted by Schwks:

According to Shandler, ARod's chances of breaking out at 33(?) are significantly less then Wright's at 25. Plus is REALLY sux to have to root for ARod Did his book come out yet? I am waiting for one I ordered as a Christmas gift and am becoming quite concerned that it will not arrive on time.

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Thu Dec 11, 2008 5:21 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by Schwks:

According to Shandler, ARod's chances of breaking out at 33(?) are significantly less then Wright's at 25. Plus is REALLY sux to have to root for ARod Did his book come out yet? I am waiting for one I ordered as a Christmas gift and am becoming quite concerned that it will not arrive on time. [/QUOTE]supposed to be mailed out over the next couple days.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Dec 11, 2008 5:23 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by Schwks:

According to Shandler, ARod's chances of breaking out at 33(?) are significantly less then Wright's at 25. Plus is REALLY sux to have to root for ARod Did his book come out yet? I am waiting for one I ordered as a Christmas gift and am becoming quite concerned that it will not arrive on time. [/QUOTE]From Ron today: The book starts shipping this weekend. If anyone wants to make

sure to get a copy by Christmas, they need to order now. All details are at

http://www.baseballhq.com/books/bf.shtml.

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Thu Dec 11, 2008 5:50 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by Schwks:

According to Shandler, ARod's chances of breaking out at 33(?) are significantly less then Wright's at 25. Plus is REALLY sux to have to root for ARod Did his book come out yet? I am waiting for one I ordered as a Christmas gift and am becoming quite concerned that it will not arrive on time. [/QUOTE]From Ron today: The book starts shipping this weekend. If anyone wants to make

sure to get a copy by Christmas, they need to order now. All details are at

http://www.baseballhq.com/books/bf.shtml. [/QUOTE]Rats, I was hoping to have it by Tuesday. C'est la vie.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Dec 11, 2008 6:27 am

OOPS!

[ December 11, 2008, 12:29 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Dec 11, 2008 6:29 am

Since the players we are talking about will be gone in the first five picks (usually), your selection will not necessarly be based, I think, on which player will net you 5 more HR or .005 in BA. It will be based on who you can get at the turn for 2 and 3.

Coming from that state of mind (and I freely admit there are no road maps for my state of mind), Hanley Ramirez is the Number 1. Really no other player has a reasonable chance to get you 30+ SB (only 17 players or less than 8% of the 210 starting offensive positions we use in the main hit that mark last year) to go with 30+ HR (only 28 players hit that mark last year), a .300 BA (only 32 players with more than 450 AB hit that mark), and 100+ Runs (28 players last year). Now he is hitting third and if the Marlins can get anyone on base after the fire sale, he can put in 90+ RBI. He will only be 25 and he has had three stellar years.

Barring injury, no one else can put up those kinds of numbers in combination. He is the complete package. It gives you many more options on the 2/3 turn.

[ December 11, 2008, 03:23 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Fri Dec 12, 2008 4:24 am

Wayne - decent analysis....but that means you have decided that Wright is not going to run much anymore....something I think is premature

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Sat Dec 13, 2008 2:35 am

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

Wayne - decent analysis....but that means you have decided that Wright is not going to run much anymore....something I think is premature True enough. In my mind Wright is a good (i.e. smart) runner...not a blazer who has 30+ SB in his tool box year end and year out. As he is only 25/26, I think he is good for the 15+ range for a few more years, but the 34 in '07 I think will look like the exception, not the rule.

Would I be satisfied with Wright as my first player taken? Absolutely, but if I had the premier pick, I would have to lean on Hanley right now, even with the Marlin (current) fire sale.