Fact Or Fiction: First Basemen

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri Jan 02, 2009 8:12 am

This is the start of my new debate series called "Fact or Fiction." Ron Shandler hosts this at his Arizona Fall League Symposium and I liked the concept so much that I decided to have some off-season fun with it on our message boards. I'm going to pick out a few players at each position and give my views on them here and then ask for you input. The idea is to see if we agree on whether these folks will duplicate their success from last season or if that was just a one-year wonder. You can debate on one or all of my choices here and feel free to add to the list if you'd like.

Okay, Fact or Fiction on these first basemen:

Prince Fielder: This is a weighty question because honestly Fielder’s progress all depends on his weight. Despite becoming a vegetarian in 2008, Fielder looked like he gained 20+ pounds during the season. His decline in power in 2008 had more to do with his free-swinging ways than lack of meat as he struck out a career-high 134 times. Until he learns to hit to all fields and gets himself in better shape, Fielder will be limited to a .275-.285 average and power numbers similar to what we saw in 2008 (34 HRs, 102 RBIs). Fact.

Kevin Youkilis: What’s not to like about Youkilis? He qualifies at two positions (1B and 3B). He’s such a gritty competitor that even his teammates can’t stand him at times. His OBP hasn’t been under .380 the last four years and now he’s added more power. And he still had 43 doubles to go with the 29 homers (and 115 RBIs) as he’s just becoming more aggressive at the plate with age (62 walks compared to 91 in 2006). This guy is a true hitter whose power numbers will continue to be impressive. Hey, with David Ortiz out last year maybe he just decided to be more aggressive at the plate and that aggressiveness should continue going forward. I’d love to have a guy like this on my keeper team. Fact.

Chris Davis: A mid-season call-up, Davis hit .285 with 17 homers and 55 RBIs in just 80 games with the Rangers. Before that, he hit .333-13-42 in 46 games at Double-A Frisco and .333-10-31 in just 31 games at Triple-A Oklahoma City. Davis is one of the hottest pickups of the off-season in fantasy drafts and he's been going in the Top 75 overall as he qualifies at 1B and 3B. I'm a bit concerned with his big swing (88 strikeouts and only 20 walks in 295 MLB at-bats) and pitchers will adjust to him. I wouldn't call his 2008 season a fluke, but personally I'm not diving in expected a repeat of 2008.

Aubrey Huff: As I said in Arizona, I can't figure Huff out for 2009. He hit .332-14-49 after the All-Star break and posted his highest HR (32) and RBI (108) totals since 2003, but I still can't trust him. At 32, it's unlikely that he will improve upon last year's numbers and his mediocre finish (.259-2-10 in September) has me staying away for now. I'll let someone else gamble that he can repeat 2008. Fluke.

Pablo Sandoval: The Giants plan on starting Sandoval at third base and batting him third, which is pretty lofty stuff for a 22-year-old. Interestingly, he spent parts of five seasons at Class A before making the move from Class A to the majors in 2008. He hit .350-20-96 in the minors and then hit .345 with three homers and 24 RBIs in 41 games with the Giants. He's a hot sleeper pick for 2009, but his quick advance is just too quick for my liking. He will be successful, but my money isn't going here unless it's at a bargain price.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Fri Jan 02, 2009 8:41 am

Okay here are my comments on Greg's 1B:

Okay, Fact or Fiction on these first basemen:

Prince Fielder: FACT - I thought he was drafted too high last year, largely (no pun) because of the diet - most people have no idea how much they would have to supplement a vegan or vegetarian diet to get the calories needed to play pro ball. I have no idea where Greg's 20 lbs came from but until I see Fielder eating a steak, he will be drafted before I am comfortable doing it.

Kevin Youkilis: FACT - guy is a gamer who can HIT...is it just me or are the rest of you reminded of a certain NFFC/NFBC gamer every time you see YOUK at the plate?

Chris Davis: FACT - he played half of the season in Texas....just double those stats and see how he would fit in on projected lists.

Aubrey Huff: FLUKE - I agree, I have no idea where it came from either.....bad timing though it must have been the first year in ages that Todd Zola didn't draft him and look what happens..

Pablo Sandoval: mostly FACT - hard to project with young players especially those that you haven't seen at higher levels, but I like what I have seen.....and he is raking again in Winter Ball (12HR; 39 RBI in 192AB in Venezuelan League with 396/449/677)...the only negative for me would be if he plays in the WBC after a full summer and winter of playing at such a young age.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Fri Jan 02, 2009 9:08 am

my take: this is typical fantasy and life. fielder was fat when he was born. he was over rated until this year- where he will possibly be slightly under rated. huff- what was not to like in round 22-25 when most people got him last year. what is to like in top 90 this year. the market over corrects. youk was big, swung hard, had a good eye and played in boston all along - so- what was not to like last year in round 15? people will over correct on him also. sandoval, davis price etc. are all guys that haven't done it before- they will be loved by all the guys that just hate to be left out on the next big thing. guy in my league last year took 10 guys that were unproven way before they should have been taken. hit on 2-3. if you have that magical year where you hit on 50%- you win it all! my answer is- i have no idea what these guys will do- but 4 of the 5 will be drafted earlier than i want to take them. fielder is a strong possibility for me in late round 3 .

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Fri Jan 02, 2009 9:10 am

nice takes headhunter......BUT Fielder is generally going in the 2nd round

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Fri Jan 02, 2009 9:19 am

that is why i would take him in the 3rd.

Head 2 Head · Post by **Head 2 Head** » Fri Jan 02, 2009 9:23 am

FACT: Fielder is Large. Power was overprojected in 2008 coming off 50 HR season. Still age, experience and power combo has to make him top 1B on the Fact/Fiction 1B list.

FACT: Youkilis has built upon solid first season (2006) and a half (2007) and was undervalued in 2008 due to wrist injury that hampered his 2nd half of 2007.

FACT: Davis & Sandoval had great MLB (small sample size) debuts and someone will prorate those numbers and they will be going before I would take them. In my home keeper league a $25 protection of Lincecum was traded for a $15 protection of Chris Davis.

FACT: Huff & Millar - I came into 2008 with similar projections (Huff about 20 points higher in BA), one overproduced, one underproduced.

Most "sheep" will overproject Huff and underproject Fielder based on 2008.

[ January 02, 2009, 03:46 PM: Message edited by: Head 2 Head ]

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Fri Jan 02, 2009 9:24 am

ps- with joba moving up along with youk and davis- someone needs to get pushed down. maybe fat boy moves down. plus- lots of changes will be made once the baseball classic gets started and players get hurt and people realize some of these pitchers will be pitching 220 innings- or throwing way too fast, with way too much "stuff" way too early.also, guys that go 10-20 and hit 3 homers will be projected up and shoot up draft boards.

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Fri Jan 02, 2009 9:30 am

Some mock draft perspective on Davis and Sandoval garnered from my participation in the Champions draft (I took Davis rd 6) and the Slow Mock #3 (I took Sandoval 13th rd). In the Champions mock, Sandoval went to Dave Clum, also in the 13th rd.

In the slow Mock Davis went in the 5th to Schwiks.

In both drafts Davis was tabbed after 11 or so 1b went off the board early- and before C Pena, Loney and Delgado in both drafts. For me, I started out with Rollins, Crawford, Bay, Ortiz and Haren. Going speed early meant I had to pull the trigger on Davis sooner rather than later to get him. I'd rather have his upside than Delgado for sure.

Likewhat17 · Post by **Likewhat17** » Fri Jan 02, 2009 9:57 am

Here's my take on the list here..

Fielder is a guy who I love as a mid-late 2nd round pick this year (and it's not just because I played on the same T-ball team as him). Sure, the power was overprojected last year, but he's hit 114 HR's the past 3 years and will only be 25 this season. He also dealt with contract issues early in the season that I think played a part in his early season struggles. I'll take .285/90/40/110 in the 2nd round all day.

Youkilis, is a guy that I admittedly have never really liked. Just something about him has always rubbed me the wrong way. However, I think he has now proven that he's for real. I think he regresses slightly from his numbers last year, but will be an excellent pick middle-end of the 3rd round. I'd expect .305/85/23/90.

Chris Davis has been a highly anticipated sleeper coming into this years drafts and has been moving up draft boards very rapidly. I for one, love the power that this kid has, especially in Arlington. It's looking now, that if you want him, you're going to have to spend a late 4th, early 5th pick. I'm among those who beleive that it would be more than worth it. I have him at .290/80/35/105.

Huff is a guy who really intrigues me heading into 2009. He's a .287 career hitter, and has shown flashes before that he's capable of sustaining success. I don't think he will match the monster numbers that he put up last year, but I don't think he'll fall on his face either. Expect a slight regression to around .290/80/25/90. Others will probably overpay for his services, but he would be a decent value in the 7th round.

Sandoval is not a guy that I will go anywhere near in 2009. I know that he's put up monster numbers in single A, and had modest success during his brief cup of coffee last year. I need him to show me sustained success at the major league level before I'm ready to invest in this guy, especially in a Giants lineup that will struggle to score runs all season.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Fri Jan 02, 2009 10:11 am

Likewhat17-I think you have a nice handle on all of these players, but I have one question: If you think Youkilis is going to put up .305/85/23/90 and Huff is going put up .285/80/25/90, is Youkilis worth the investment four to five round earlier?

Likewhat17 · Post by **Likewhat17** » Fri Jan 02, 2009 11:03 am

CC- The only reason that I would have Youk so much higher is that he definitely doesn't have nearly as much risk associated with him. While I think he'll put up the numbers that I posted, he has a higher ceiling and more potential, and almost surely won't go too far under that. Huff on the other hand, is older and more volatile, thus having the chance to regress even further.

In this game, the main thing that I look to do is minimize risk. The more of a sure thing you are, the higher you get drafted. It's all about consistency.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Fri Jan 02, 2009 11:06 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Likewhat17-I think you have a nice handle on all of these players, but I have one question: If you think Youkilis is going to put up .305/85/23/90 and Huff is going put up .285/80/25/90, is Youkilis worth the investment four to five round earlier? Euclid thinks the difference between those two projections in the main is 42 points. Not nothing. Plus, it is hard to find guys that you can project their batting averages over .300 so I can see paying a little more for that. But more than all that, I'd think he'd be willing to pay for getting less risk with Youk.

That said, I have no idea how he figures Youkilis gets the same number of RBI's and runs while he is hitting better and getting on base more in the middle of a far better lineup.

[ January 02, 2009, 05:46 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Fri Jan 02, 2009 11:16 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Likewhat17-I think you have a nice handle on all of these players, but I have one question: If you think Youkilis is going to put up .305/85/23/90 and Huff is going put up .285/80/25/90, is Youkilis worth the investment four to five round earlier? Euclid thinks the difference between those two projections in the main is 42 points. Not nothing. Plus, it is hard to find guys that you can project their batting averages over .300 so I can see paying a little more than that. But more than all that, I'd think he'd be willing to pay for getting less risk with Youk.

That said, I have no idea how you figure Youkilis gets the same number of RBI's and runs while he is hitting better and getting on base more in the middle of a far better lineup. [/QUOTE]Well my clip board has Youkilis down for a few more sticks across the board. He should have a solid year maybe not 30/120, but he has solid shot at .300+ with 25/100. By the way if I was Theo, I'd trade his sorry a$$ at a high point. Most reports are that he is a real jerk.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Fri Jan 02, 2009 12:13 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Likewhat17-I think you have a nice handle on all of these players, but I have one question: If you think Youkilis is going to put up .305/85/23/90 and Huff is going put up .285/80/25/90, is Youkilis worth the investment four to five round earlier? Euclid thinks the difference between those two projections in the main is 42 points. Not nothing. Plus, it is hard to find guys that you can project their batting averages over .300 so I can see paying a little more than that. But more than all that, I'd think he'd be willing to pay for getting less risk with Youk.

That said, I have no idea how you figure Youkilis gets the same number of RBI's and runs while he is hitting better and getting on base more in the middle of a far better lineup. [/QUOTE]Well my clip board has Youkilis down for a few more sticks across the board. He should have a solid year maybe not 30/120, but he has solid shot at .300+ with 25/100. By the way if I was Theo, I'd trade his sorry a$$ at a high point. Most reports are that he is a real jerk. [/QUOTE]so was Bonds, to the tune of 762 HR's !

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Fri Jan 02, 2009 1:37 pm

At least Bonds earned the right to be a dick...Youkilis has one good year at age 29 and he thinks he's headed to the Hall of Fame.

[ January 02, 2009, 07:38 PM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sat Jan 03, 2009 5:07 am

Prince Fielder - "Fielder's progress all depends on weight" - I totally disagree. Unless steroids are involved, since when has a player's diet really effected a swing. I know it doesn't effect hand-eye coordination. Tony Gwynn, Cecil Fielder (not a vegan), Frank Thomas, these guys crushed the ball and it had nothing to do with being in shape.

There have been players that worked out harder than they have in their whole lives in an offseason (Nick Swisher) and failed miserably. I think there's a stronger correlation between personal motivation and success than actual diet.

Also, Prince Fielder's overall numbers (besides homers) were pretty similar. In roughly the same amount of at-bats he had 3 less hits, 17 less rbi's (it will fluctuate every year for every player) 6 less walks, 13 more K's, down 12 points in BA, and 23 points in on-base%.

In 2007 he had those 2 huges months of 13 and 11, if he had those in 2008 he'd be right under 50 homers.

I think the easiest way to project his 2009 numbers is it's somewhere between his last 2 years. .280-42-110-95 runs would sound about right. I would definitely expect him to perform better than he did in 2007. Just my take.

[ January 03, 2009, 11:13 AM: Message edited by: Crazy Like a Fox ]

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Jan 03, 2009 6:42 am

The Advisory Board is tired of my theory on "big" players, to them, apologies.

My theory is this, before the age of 30, and even after in some cases, I feel that the danger of big players getting hurt is A LOT less than the average player.

Predators aside, take the sloth, it'll take him all day to cover the 20 feet necessary to get food. Meanwhile, the tiger or gazelle have to scurry all day to eat or avoid being eaten. They'll cover miles. Who is in more danger of being hurt, the sloth or the tiger and gazelle?

Same holds true in baseball. Sloths are usually playing first base, dh'ing or pitching, sometimes 3b, hardly any territory to cover. Gazelles and tigers are running around stealing bases, crashing into walls and making diving catches. A lot of chance for injury there.

Until age 30 or so, I actually count being overweight as a bonus.

But of course I'm big, so I may just be sticking up for my guys!

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Jan 03, 2009 8:09 am

Does anyone know where you can find DL Days as a sortable stat? Tons of information to be gathered that way.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Sat Jan 03, 2009 8:32 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

Does anyone know where you can find DL Days as a sortable stat? Tons of information to be gathered that way. Not sure where you can find it online sortable Brian.....BUT Shandler's Forecaster has a 5 year injury log by player that shows DL days by year and identifies injury.....also very helpful

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Sat Jan 03, 2009 9:16 am

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

Does anyone know where you can find DL Days as a sortable stat? Tons of information to be gathered that way. Not sure where you can find it online sortable Brian.....BUT Shandler's Forecaster has a 5 year injury log by player that shows DL days by year and identifies injury.....also very helpful [/QUOTE]Yo Captain!

Anywhere to find a "game log" type of listing of players with all reported injuries, even minor, next to the dates...that would be awesome.

~Lance

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Jan 03, 2009 10:13 am

It's a pay site, but Rick Wilton's www.baseball-injury-report.com has a ton of good info.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Jan 03, 2009 10:50 am

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

Does anyone know where you can find DL Days as a sortable stat? Tons of information to be gathered that way. Not sure where you can find it online sortable Brian.....BUT Shandler's Forecaster has a 5 year injury log by player that shows DL days by year and identifies injury.....also very helpful [/QUOTE]I was too busy going over the snake draft to notice.

Nah, I know and it is in Wilton's book also, but without sortables you can't look at the correlation to, say, stolen bases. I didn't know that the Injury Report had a site also. I will have to decide if I want to pony up the bucks or if I have time to be looking at that stuff in the next three months.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Jan 03, 2009 12:36 pm

I think I know where you are going, Brian. It could be interesting. Not just who gets hurt, but how, and how many times performing those baseball related duties on the field would be worthy of note.

The theory on big players can also extend to the hustling players and lazy players. Guys like a Manny, Dunn, or a Burrell who basically coast and do not extend themselves will not get the injuries that a Kinsler or a Tulo would get.

It sounds strange, but fantasy baseball is one of the few places in sports where you are somewhat rewarded for having players that are overly big and lazy!

[ January 03, 2009, 06:39 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Sat Jan 03, 2009 6:57 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

I think I know where you are going, Brian. It could be interesting. Not just who gets hurt, but how, and how many times performing those baseball related duties on the field would be worthy of note.

The theory on big players can also extend to the hustling players and lazy players. Guys like a Manny, Dunn, or a Burrell who basically coast and do not extend themselves will not get the injuries that a Kinsler or a Tulo would get.

It sounds strange, but fantasy baseball is one of the few places in sports where you are somewhat rewarded for having players that are overly big and lazy!

I think it would be both brilliant and easy to connect the reported injuries and how they performed with said injuries during the season...so we could fancy a projected healthier season!

~Lance

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Sun Jan 04, 2009 5:22 am

I'll add a few more first basemen tomorrow and then post second basemen on Tuesday. I wanted to look at Carlos Delgado's first half and second half flukes and ask folks if they think that was Fact or Fluke and Daric Barton too, although I was waiting to see if Giambi or someone else would be signed in Oakland first before diving too deep into his abysmal numbers. I'll add 2-4 more first basemen and then move over one spot. Thanks all for your feedback as it's been interesting and all over the board.

Dan, you're big as in tall. Not big as in Fielder.