Second Basemen: Fact Or Fiction

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Jan 06, 2009 8:11 am

The second base position is top heavy with three possible Top 20 picks in Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia and Chase Utley, but it falls off quickly after that and then gets interesting later on. Last year there were some nice surprises at the second base spot and in our continuing Fact or Fiction debate we'll look at a few of those key players:

Mike Aviles: Aviles qualifies at 2B and SS this year and is scheduled to start at SS this year for the Royals. He was consistently good since his callup in June, never hitting lower than .308 for any of the four months he was in the big leagues and finishing .325-10-51-8 with 68 runs in 102 games. But 27-year-old rookies scare me. He had just 18 walks in 419 at-bats and the only time he hit above .300 in the minors was in 2003 in Rookie ball. There’s no way he repeats the high average in 2009 as pitchers will figure this guy out. Fluke.

Robinson Cano: Cano isn’t the first player to sign a big contract and then press to justify it. He was benched for not running out groundballs and his defense was even shaky in 2008. For someone who is as aggressive at the plate as Cano (only 26 walks in 597 ABs), it’s tough to consistently post an OBP above .350. He’s slightly better than a .271 average (.271-14-72-2 with 70 runs last year), but the power numbers are more in line with what you can expect going forward. Fact.

Mark DeRosa: What’s not to like about DeRosa? Traded to Cleveland last week, he will now start at third base for the Tribe and continue to play multiple positions if needed. As long as he stays healthy and bats in the middle of this solid lineup, the power numbers should continue. He hit .316 at Wrigley with power numbers equal on the road and at home. His plate discipline last year was similar to previous seasons and as long as he can stay healthy this versatile player (he qualifies at 2B, 3B and OF) will be a great pickup again in 2009. Fact.

Dustin Pedroia: He's the reigning AL MVP, he's going in the Top 20 in most NFBC off-season drafts and he's not clear of this scrutiny. Pedroia has blown me away with his tenacious plate discipline as I never saw this coming over the last two years. But you watch him foul off pitch after pitch until he gets something to drive and you know this guy is for real. Over the last two years he's hit .317 and .326 with an OBP of .380 and .376. He's stolen 27 bases in 29 attempts and scored 86 and 118 runs. Just 25, he may never duplicate last year's MVP season, but I wouldn't bet against this guy at all. Fact.

Rickie Weeks: The Brewers are smart enough not to give up on this guy, but their patience is running thin. He's hit .245 over the last four full seasons with 419 strikeouts and only 214 walks. He's learned to work the count a little better these last two years, but his free-swinging ways are still brutal. If he could get on base more he'd run more as he's converted 85% of his steal chances (78 of 92), but they don't give you first base for free. Just 26 and in his sixth season in the majors, Weeks has potential to be a bargain play here, but what you saw last year (.234-14-46-19) is probably what you'll see this year. Fact.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Tue Jan 06, 2009 9:15 am

I think that Aviles will continue to be a solid fantasy producer. I think that the power numbers are a bit inflated, but 285 12 65 is a reality. In winter ball he is batting over 300 but with no HR and as you pointed out, his minor league numbers dont show a lot of power.

I agree on Cano...dont see him as a 20 HR guy, but I would think that a modest improvement in power numbers could be seen...15-17 HR which would really raise him out of pack of middlin 2bs. I also agree that 280-290 avg is a reasonable goal.

ASking for Weeks to step up into a range where he does not kill your fantasy avg, is too much to gamble on in first 15 rounds. But his counting numbers could rise with a full season of abs. But that is reliant upon him hitting enough to keep himself in the lineup...a Catch 22.

DeRosa had a power spike last season. At 34 there is no evidence that this maintains itself. But DeRosa will continue to be solid fantasy guy who gives 285-290 with 12-14 HR and 75 rbi and cover a few positions and add flexibility

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Tue Jan 06, 2009 9:16 am

I have nothing other then gut to back this up, but I just dont see Pedroia as repeating. That said, I do see him having a very good yer worthy of top 4-6 rd pick

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Jan 06, 2009 10:57 am

Originally posted by Schwks:

I have nothing other then gut to back this up, but I just dont see Pedroia as repeating. That said, I do see him having a very good yer worthy of top 4-6 rd pick Guys who get 500+ ABs and hit .300+ are worthy top round picks (he had 653 ABs last year and hit .326 with an AL high 213 hits). Guys who do that and hit at the top of a powerful lineup like Boston's and lead the league in runs with 118 go in the Top two rounds. Guys who do all that and drive in 83 runs with an AL best 54 doubles move close to the first round. And guys who steal 95 percent of their attempts like he did last year (20-of-21) go late first round.

I didn't have him in a single league last year and was stupid enough to rank him 10th among all second basemen last year. But this guy is for real, and while I probably wouldn't take him Top 20, I see many reasons why I should. In fact, I think I just listed all of them.

MadCow Sez · Post by **MadCow Sez** » Tue Jan 06, 2009 12:06 pm

Aviles = smoke and mirrors. He'll be OK if you're filling out your roster late but I don't thinking the counting cats will be there. Empty production.

Cano = My gut says there will be an uptick...in that lineup, how could there not be? I call him the bottom of the top and would have no problem with him on my roster.

DeRosa = flexibility is what I like here but age will eventually catch up with him. I see the power dropping off.

Pedroia = Gotta watch out for those short guys. Vintage Billy Wags with a bat in hand here. Dustin is BA gold.

Weeks = Now where is that ten-foot pole? You can't steal first. Why dig a BA hole? Someone else can take this possible bargain.

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Tue Jan 06, 2009 12:21 pm

Originally posted by Schwks:

I have nothing other then gut to back this up, but I just dont see Pedroia as repeating. That said, I do see him having a very good yer worthy of top 4-6 rd pick Gotta disagree with the 4-6 rd assessment. Maybe in a 12 teamer, but in the Main he is a Top 45 pick at worst IMO.

Just consider this. Which is more likely to happen:

Pedroia again goes 20/20 or Brandon Phillips hits .300?? Now I concede that Phillips could always go 30/30 - but a .275 avg seems likely.

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Tue Jan 06, 2009 12:54 pm

Totally agree with the take on DeRosa, which is why I was very happy to get him in the 11th rd of the Champions draft. The fact that I am a Cleveland fan and he was traded to the Tribe after the draft was even nicer - as I had no Tribe offensive players(a bonus to have some fantasy tied to your real-life team).

While the power may dip below 20 again- the Indians will score some runs this year and he will be in that lineup every day more than likely.

Two other 2b that intrique me are Blake DeWitt and Mike Fontenot. While both project better as MI's-I think both could be serviceable starting options if one was to decide to wait til much later in the draft to fill that position. Interested what others see as the upside/likely numbers for both with 500+ AB's

[ January 06, 2009, 07:10 PM: Message edited by: Ryan Carey ]

Hard Heads · Post by **Hard Heads** » Tue Jan 06, 2009 6:48 pm

Originally posted by Ryan Carey:

Totally agree with the take on DeRosa, which is why I was very happy to get him in the 11th rd of the Champions draft. The fact that I am a Cleveland fan and he was traded to the Tribe after the draft was even nicer - as I had no Tribe offensive players(a bonus to have some fantasy tied to your real-life team).

While the power may dip below 20 again- the Indians will score some runs this year and he will be in that lineup every day more than likely.

Just did a draft where I took Weeks, but backed him up with Fontenot. Like Fontenot's stick and in that lineup he could be a nice value for when I have to bench weeks.

Two other 2b that intrique me are Blake DeWitt and Mike Fontenot. While both project better as MI's-I think both could be serviceable starting options if one was to decide to wait til much later in the draft to fill that position. Interested what others see as the upside/likely numbers for both with 500+ AB's

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Tue Jan 06, 2009 7:58 pm

Aviles-Cano-Weeks-DeRosa; four completely different profiles, but in the end all worth about the same 11th round value.

Weeks will be the top performer and might be the last one drafted, he's the best value if you can plan around his 250 BA. Aviles won't hit 300, but he'll be worth more than Cano who is being drafted way too early. DeRosa is probably the bottom performer here - he is servicable, but someone will jump him too soon in every draft based on last yr's numbers.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Jan 07, 2009 12:56 am

On Pedroia, Greg's assessment nails it. His value is, in this order: ability to get on base, where he hits in the order, ability to steal bases, batting average, team.

Aviles you have to look at one of two ways. Either it was a career year, or he is one of those rare guys who get to the majors and shine in excess of what they showed in the minors. I am betting it is the former and he plays in KC. Late conditional MI or reserve on my team at best.

DeRosa you just have to love. Just a good ballplayer. Fantasy-wise, will not do nearly as well in Cleveland. Remember he was given a starting job out of the gate a few years ago when he was younger and only had mixed results. And that was in Texas.

Weeks will be someones gamble and will be in 2009 what he has been for the last few years...at least a finalist in the "Excuses to Rationalize Why I Picked this Guy for My Fantasy Team Too Early" contest.

Cano never developed the power everyone hoped he would develop as he matured. He just doesn't have the speed to overcome all those ground balls he hits and ground balls rarely jump over the fence for homeruns. Might be a value pick as his BA will come back to norms this year. The way he can really shine (which is possible as he is far from old) would be if he could get his OBP up to .360+ and the Yanks take advantage of that and bat him second with more regularity. Then you might get Pedroia (with no speed and less BA). Line drives over ground balls would help.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Jan 07, 2009 3:03 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

The way he can really shine (which is possible as he is far from old) would be if he could get his OBP up to .360+ and the Yanks take advantage of that and bat him second with more regularity. Then you might get Pedroia (with no speed and less BA). Line drives over ground balls would help. Wayne, Cano's problem is that he doesn't walk enough to help his OBP and thus hurts his runs total and justifies him hitting lower in the lineup. In four years with the Yankees, he's walked 16, 18, 39 and 26 times. His OBP was .320 when he hit .297, .365 when he hit .342, .353 when he hit .306 and .305 when he hit .271. That leaves him at 70+ runs per year unless he drastically changes his approach at the plate, which isn't likely.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Wed Jan 07, 2009 5:49 am

Greg nice work ,if Cano hasnt taken walk's in four years why would he change now.Why does he go so high in drafts,was it that year he hit over 340.

Jeter is another who is just avg at his position but goes a couple rounds too early.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Jan 07, 2009 6:04 am

It's the Yankee-RedSox thing, Eddie. A lot of drafters feel that if they take hitters in these lineups that they should poop the Runs (and RBI) for 162 games.

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Wed Jan 07, 2009 6:14 am

Originally posted by Schwks:

I have nothing other then gut to back this up, but I just dont see Pedroia as repeating. That said, I do see him having a very good yer worthy of top 4-6 rd pick Hey Schwks, and eveyone - funny post on Razzball.com regarding Pedroia

Razzball.com

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Wed Jan 07, 2009 8:00 am

Thanks for the link Ryan. I like that Avatar guy...quite amusing. BTW I agree with him on Pedroia.

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Wed Jan 07, 2009 8:12 am

Eddie and Greg,

I have to disagree with your assessment on Pedroia and on the method used to get there. If we always picked the guy who had the good year last year, we would never win.

First the stolen bases: nothing to me is more irrelevent for fantasy baseball then stolen base percentage. TO me Id rather have a guy a) with speed b)who runs a lot c) on a team that likes to run d)in a lineup position that affords the opportunity Pedroia has never been a big sb guy, does not possess great speed and plays for the Sox who are generally not a running team(though they have shifted a bit recently) His previous high for a season was 8.

Runs: assuming that he bats in top of order, Pedroia should score 100 runs...so that should be a lock

RBIs: He was never a big rbi guy, and with his prototype, would anybody be surprised with a drop to 65-72 RBIs? Plus if he is batting 1 or 2 (probably needed for his sbs) does he get enough opps?

I think Pedroia has proven his avg skills.

So would there be anybody surprised if he went 310 12 65 with 11-12 sbs and 100 runs? I would say absolutely not. And those numbers are nice but not 1-2 round nice.

Likewhat17 · Post by **Likewhat17** » Thu Jan 08, 2009 10:56 am

Here's my take on the 2B listed..

Pedroia is as solid as they come, and if he fell to me in the mid-to-late 2nd round (which I don't believe he will), I would snatch him up immediately. I agree with Greg's assessment that his average is the reason that he is so valuable, that and playing at a very weak fantasy position. He's going to get 600 at bats and hit .320. He will again be among the league leaders in runs at the end of the season. These 2 categories are what you pay the premium for with Pedroia, as I expect his power/speed numbers to both come back to earth. Playing at Fenway, he should still hit 14-15 HR's, but I expect the RBI's to drop down to the 65-70 range. And as far as his speed goes, I'm not buying any of the potential 20-20 hype. I'm aware he was 20-21 last year, but he stole only 11 bases in his entire minor league career (270 games). He is a very smart baserunner and picks good spots, I just don't see him swiping 20 bags again. Count on anywhere between 12-15 and be thrilled if he exceeds that. Still, when all is said and done, .320/115/15/70/13 is well worth the 2nd round investment.

Mike Aviles is one guy who I'm just not buying the hype on at all. Yes, he had a very nice rookie season as a 27 year old, I just don't think he is primed to repeat. He shouldn't kill your BA, probably in the .285 range, but his counting stats leave much more to be desired. I'd expect .285/70/12/60/9, not awful, but definitely not what I would want from my starting 2B.

Mark Derosa is another guy who I don't understand why so many people are fascinated with. Yes, I get that he has multi-position eligibility and adds flexibility to your team. He's 34 years old, coming off of a career year that he's highly unlikely to repeat, and moving from one of the better hitting parks in baseball to Cleveland which is one of the worst. If you buy the hype and pay for him to be your starting 2B, you'll end up disappointed. My guess would be .279/76/14/78/3. Not terrible for a 2nd baseman, I just think he'll be taken too early for my liking.

Robinson Cano. A guy who has all the talent in the world, and is entering a season in which he'll be 26 years old. His babip last year was a meager .283, far below his career .320 mark. I actually think that with so many people who appear to be down on Cano, that he could be very valuable this season. Take away his April/March from last year, and Cano was a .303 hitter. Even with his poor ability to take walks, he scored 70 runs last year. Adding Teix to that lineup should be good for a least a couple of more runs. Would you take .310/80/17/76/3 from your 2B in the 7th round?

[ January 08, 2009, 04:58 PM: Message edited by: Likewhat17 ]

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Thu Jan 08, 2009 11:52 am

I never said anything about Pedroia.I agree with most he's a mid 2nd round pick.Cano is someone im not taking in the 6th round when i can get a stud closer or a stud starting pitcher and then take an Aviles or Kelly Johnson in the 12th round and numbers will be close.Like Mike Singletary say's CANT DO IT.......

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Thu Jan 08, 2009 12:02 pm

is there an archives of comments about ugla after his 1st season and how he couldn't repeat it because he was 27 when he did it? might look a lot like aviles posts this year. but i admit- even knowing that ugla stuff i am still sceptical.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Tue Jan 13, 2009 1:26 pm

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

The second base position is top heavy with three possible Top 20 picks in Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia and Chase Utley, but it falls off quickly after that and then gets interesting later on. Last year there were some nice surprises at the second base spot and in our continuing Fact or Fiction debate we'll look at a few of those key players:

Mike Aviles: Aviles qualifies at 2B and SS this year and is scheduled to start at SS this year for the Royals. He was consistently good since his callup in June, never hitting lower than .308 for any of the four months he was in the big leagues and finishing .325-10-51-8 with 68 runs in 102 games. But 27-year-old rookies scare me. He had just 18 walks in 419 at-bats and the only time he hit above .300 in the minors was in 2003 in Rookie ball. There’s no way he repeats the high average in 2009 as pitchers will figure this guy out. Fluke.

Robinson Cano: Cano isn’t the first player to sign a big contract and then press to justify it. He was benched for not running out groundballs and his defense was even shaky in 2008. For someone who is as aggressive at the plate as Cano (only 26 walks in 597 ABs), it’s tough to consistently post an OBP above .350. He’s slightly better than a .271 average (.271-14-72-2 with 70 runs last year), but the power numbers are more in line with what you can expect going forward. Fact.

Mark DeRosa: What’s not to like about DeRosa? Traded to Cleveland last week, he will now start at third base for the Tribe and continue to play multiple positions if needed. As long as he stays healthy and bats in the middle of this solid lineup, the power numbers should continue. He hit .316 at Wrigley with power numbers equal on the road and at home. His plate discipline last year was similar to previous seasons and as long as he can stay healthy this versatile player (he qualifies at 2B, 3B and OF) will be a great pickup again in 2009. Fact.

Dustin Pedroia: He's the reigning AL MVP, he's going in the Top 20 in most NFBC off-season drafts and he's not clear of this scrutiny. Pedroia has blown me away with his tenacious plate discipline as I never saw this coming over the last two years. But you watch him foul off pitch after pitch until he gets something to drive and you know this guy is for real. Over the last two years he's hit .317 and .326 with an OBP of .380 and .376. He's stolen 27 bases in 29 attempts and scored 86 and 118 runs. Just 25, he may never duplicate last year's MVP season, but I wouldn't bet against this guy at all. Fact.

Rickie Weeks: The Brewers are smart enough not to give up on this guy, but their patience is running thin. He's hit .245 over the last four full seasons with 419 strikeouts and only 214 walks. He's learned to work the count a little better these last two years, but his free-swinging ways are still brutal. If he could get on base more he'd run more as he's converted 85% of his steal chances (78 of 92), but they don't give you first base for free. Just 26 and in his sixth season in the majors, Weeks has potential to be a bargain play here, but what you saw last year (.234-14-46-19) is probably what you'll see this year. Fact. Regarding Aviles, the comment "the only time he hit above .300 in the minors was in 2003 in Rookie ball" is completely incorrect. He's hit .300+ in 3 out of 6 seasons in the minors and missed it by 4 points in one of those seasons. I don't think you can simply say, he never hit .300 in the minors so he won't repeat again. Hanley Ramirez never hit more than 8 homers in any minor league season, and he's hitting 30+ per year now. Now, I don't think you can necessarily pro-rate his numbers and come up with what he will do in 2009 but he's clearly a free swinger who makes good contact. Why can't he hit .290-15-75-10. Sure, chances are he won't hit .310 but he should hit for a solid average and make any team owner happy with better than decent numbers across the board.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Tue Jan 13, 2009 1:31 pm

I do think you're right on about Weeks. Can he be a bargain play if he ever stays healthy and gets that average into the .260's? Sure, but it's 4 years now and in the 10th round you're still taking too big a chance when there are sure things out there. I'm not going to draft him every year crossing my fingers that he'll breakout. I'll leave that to somebody else.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Tue Jan 13, 2009 2:42 pm

Crazy i think your right on with Aviles.He's also good for 2 position's with is a very nice bonus.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 15, 2009 2:01 am

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

The second base position is top heavy with three possible Top 20 picks in Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia and Chase Utley, but it falls off quickly after that and then gets interesting later on. Last year there were some nice surprises at the second base spot and in our continuing Fact or Fiction debate we'll look at a few of those key players:

Mike Aviles: Aviles qualifies at 2B and SS this year and is scheduled to start at SS this year for the Royals. He was consistently good since his callup in June, never hitting lower than .308 for any of the four months he was in the big leagues and finishing .325-10-51-8 with 68 runs in 102 games. But 27-year-old rookies scare me. He had just 18 walks in 419 at-bats and the only time he hit above .300 in the minors was in 2003 in Rookie ball. There’s no way he repeats the high average in 2009 as pitchers will figure this guy out. Fluke.

Robinson Cano: Cano isn’t the first player to sign a big contract and then press to justify it. He was benched for not running out groundballs and his defense was even shaky in 2008. For someone who is as aggressive at the plate as Cano (only 26 walks in 597 ABs), it’s tough to consistently post an OBP above .350. He’s slightly better than a .271 average (.271-14-72-2 with 70 runs last year), but the power numbers are more in line with what you can expect going forward. Fact.

Mark DeRosa: What’s not to like about DeRosa? Traded to Cleveland last week, he will now start at third base for the Tribe and continue to play multiple positions if needed. As long as he stays healthy and bats in the middle of this solid lineup, the power numbers should continue. He hit .316 at Wrigley with power numbers equal on the road and at home. His plate discipline last year was similar to previous seasons and as long as he can stay healthy this versatile player (he qualifies at 2B, 3B and OF) will be a great pickup again in 2009. Fact.

Dustin Pedroia: He's the reigning AL MVP, he's going in the Top 20 in most NFBC off-season drafts and he's not clear of this scrutiny. Pedroia has blown me away with his tenacious plate discipline as I never saw this coming over the last two years. But you watch him foul off pitch after pitch until he gets something to drive and you know this guy is for real. Over the last two years he's hit .317 and .326 with an OBP of .380 and .376. He's stolen 27 bases in 29 attempts and scored 86 and 118 runs. Just 25, he may never duplicate last year's MVP season, but I wouldn't bet against this guy at all. Fact.

Rickie Weeks: The Brewers are smart enough not to give up on this guy, but their patience is running thin. He's hit .245 over the last four full seasons with 419 strikeouts and only 214 walks. He's learned to work the count a little better these last two years, but his free-swinging ways are still brutal. If he could get on base more he'd run more as he's converted 85% of his steal chances (78 of 92), but they don't give you first base for free. Just 26 and in his sixth season in the majors, Weeks has potential to be a bargain play here, but what you saw last year (.234-14-46-19) is probably what you'll see this year. Fact. Regarding Aviles, the comment "the only time he hit above .300 in the minors was in 2003 in Rookie ball" is completely incorrect. He's hit .300+ in 3 out of 6 seasons in the minors and missed it by 4 points in one of those seasons. I don't think you can simply say, he never hit .300 in the minors so he won't repeat again. Hanley Ramirez never hit more than 8 homers in any minor league season, and he's hitting 30+ per year now. Now, I don't think you can necessarily pro-rate his numbers and come up with what he will do in 2009 but he's clearly a free swinger who makes good contact. Why can't he hit .290-15-75-10. Sure, chances are he won't hit .310 but he should hit for a solid average and make any team owner happy with better than decent numbers across the board. [/QUOTE]Crazy, I'm not sure where you're looking for Aviles' minor-league stats, but here's what the Baseball Register says for Aviles:

2003, Rookie League, .363

2004, Class A, .300

2005, Double-A, .280

2006, Triple-A, .264

2007, Triple-A, .296

I already said what he hit again at Omaha last year before his callup. Aviles will be 28 in March, so comparing his minor-league numbers to Hanley Ramirez isn't a fair comparison. Aviles is already at an age where it's very possible "what you see is what you get." Ramirez was still developing when he was traded to the Marlins.

Bama · Post by **Bama** » Thu Jan 15, 2009 2:34 am

Mike Aviles

Minor League Batting Stats

Year Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG

2003 R-Royals 52 212 51 77 19 5 6 39 13 28 11 5 .404 .585 .363

2004 A-Wilmington 126 463 66 139 40 4 6 69 39 57 2 5 .352 .443 .300

2005 AA-Wichita 133 521 79 146 33 6 14 80 30 64 11 6 .318 .447 .280

2006 AAA-Omaha 129 469 52 124 21 3 8 47 28 48 14 5 .307 .373 .264

2007 AAA-Omaha 133 538 78 159 27 6 17 77 30 59 5 5 .332 .463 .296

2008 AAA-Omaha 51 214 42 72 21 6 10 42 11 23 3 0 .370 .631 .336

[ January 15, 2009, 08:39 AM: Message edited by: KLN ]

Corkedbats · Post by **Corkedbats** » Thu Jan 15, 2009 5:51 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Dustin Pedroia: [/b]He's the reigning AL MVP, he's going in the Top 20 in most NFBC off-season drafts and he's not clear of this scrutiny. Pedroia has blown me away with his tenacious plate discipline as I never saw this coming over the last two years. But you watch him foul off pitch after pitch until he gets something to drive and you know this guy is for real. Over the last two years he's hit .317 and .326 with an OBP of .380 and .376. He's stolen 27 bases in 29 attempts and scored 86 and 118 runs. Just 25, he may never duplicate last year's MVP season, but I wouldn't bet against this guy at all. Fact.

[/QB]1st time I've agreed with Stache "he may never duplicate last year's MVP season"