Shortstops: Fact or Fluke?

[Greg Ambrosius]

The shortstop position is top-heavy with talent, but the depth is weaker this year than in past years. Or is it? Maybe there are some real bargains out there at the SS position. In this thread, we'll look at a handful of shortstops and analyze last season to see if that was a fact of things to come or just a fluke season. Here's the lineup card:



Stephen Drew: Drew hit .238-12-60 in 2007, but NFBC owners benefitted last year if they took the gamble and grabbed him for their SS spot. He played in a career-high 152 games, received a career-high 611 at-bats and hit .291-21-67 with 91 runs and three stolen bases. He became a solid leadoff hitter once the Diamondbacks had the confidence to move him there, hitting .313-11-39 in 315 ABs at leadoff. But more importantly, you saw a more confident hitter in the second half as he hit .326-9-34 after the All-Star break. Surprisingly, he was just 3-of-6 in SB attempts after going 11-for-11 the two previous seasons. Just 26 and now at the top of this lineup for a full season, Drew provides nice value and will continue to progress this year and beyond. Fact.



Miguel Tejada: Tejada made the All-Star team during his first season with the Astros as he hit .275-10-44 in the first half. But the 34-year-old looked MUCH older after the break, hitting just .295 with three homers and 22 RBIs. He also didn't benefit by hitting at hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park as he hit just .293-8-30 there. His free-swinging ways (just 24 walks in 632 ABs) is a concern, as is the weak second half. Something isn't right here as it's just possible the number of games he's played through the years (158 last year) is catching up to him (or something else, hint, hint ) . What you saw last year (.283-13-66, 7 SBs) is what you'll get this year. Fact.



J.J. Hardy: Hardy's 2008 season was almost a repeat of 2007's final numbers, but there was more consistency and more upside to 2008. He hit .283-24-74 with 78 runs and two stolen bases, hitting .283-13-40 in the first half and .282-11-34 after the break. He became a solid No. 2 hitter and should stay in that slot all year long as he hit .294-21-51 there with a solid .343 OBP. Just 26, this is the start of good things for Hardy. Fact.



Derek Jeter: Jeter has been an elite shortstop for the past 13 seasons, but he showed signs of decline last year. He did hit .300 or better for the 10th time in his career and his power numbers were somewhat consistent with his career levels (11 HRs, 69 RBIs). But his 11 stolen bases (in a career-low 16 attempts) were his lowest in a full season and his 88 runs were the second-lowest of his career. Still, he had a solid .363 OBP and with A-Rod and Tex now behind him in the order, that should lead to 100+ runs. Although he's 34 and on the decline, I'm not burying him just yet. An uptick in runs and SBs with similar power numbers isn't out of the question for 2009. Fact about his decline, Fluke about expecting much lower numbers.



Jhonny Peralta: Injuries to Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez allowed the Indians to move Peralta into the heart of their lineup and he came through, driving in a career-high 89 runs and topping 20 HRs for the third time in four seasons. He hit .276 with a .331 OBP and scored a career-best 104 runs. He didn't run near as much (3-of-4 in SB attempts), but that's okay as long as he's providing the improved power numbers. Just 26, Peralta still has upside as long as he remains in the heart of the Indians' lineup. Fact.

[Edwards Kings]

I think this is a weak position and I think "bargain" will be redefined as "someone who will not kill me in too many categories".



In general, most are targeting 80-20-80-.280-10 (give or take a few in each category) as the average for all their offensive players and very few shortstops will even come close to reaching much less helping in two or three categories. Jeter's speed decline, in my opinion, is for real. He will help in runs and BA, just like Greg said, but anything above 10 SB and HR will be a gift. And he will go, barring spring injury, in the late fifth, early sixth round in the most drafts.



The guy who cannot spell his first name likewise is, at best, a three-category guy. He can help, if they leave him in an RBI producing roll, in most counting stats, but is a drag on SB and a .260 BA is just as probable as a .275 which is his BA upside despite Peralta's majical 2005 season.



Greg nailed Hardy as well. The consistency in '08 was a comfort and I think he is one of the guys who might become more popular as draft day approaches. Can actually HELP in four categories because I see some upside in his BA, though I am not as high on projecting any power increases. Could hit .285-290 without much of a stretch, but 25 HR is about his upside with me.



If Drew just repeats 2008, most will be satisfied. He can help in Runs and BA, but will need to have an uptick in power (and just 25 and playing in ARI, this is possible) will be necessary to warrant his pick in what is looking like the "SS Run" round late 5 early 6. I would rather have him, in my opinion, than Jeter, however but I always favor the up and comers over the mid-thirties vets, which I know is a personal problem.



I had Tejada in 2004 in those hazy crazy steroid days, so I will always have a warm spot in my fantasy baseball mind for him, but the warm spot is moving to heartburn. He is fast looking like a shell of his former self. He is falling and may continue to fall, but 75-15-75-.285 is not unreasonable expectation. In short, he will not hurt you too bad in three categories and may help in one. If he fell far enough, I would jump on him, but odds are he will still go in the top ten rounds.



Other fact/fluke questions remain on SS's. Is Tulo's second half a prelude to returning to 2007 numbers. The Rockies will be weaker this year as Helton gets a year older, Holliday is gone, and Hawpe/Atkins appear to have peaked lower than the sky-high expectations of the past. I think Tulo will return to glory, but his supporting cast may lessen his opportunities.



Will Furcal return to form and I mean speed? Back injuries and speed do not mix. If you draft for 40 SB, you may be disappointed.



How unhappy is Michael Young? I have him as a Jeter with little pop (don't look for 20+ ever again) and a little less speed (though he could get 10 again). By asking him to play third really tells you how much faith Texas has in Blalock's health or Davis' defense. And his contract and '08 BA decline may keep him from getting traded. FACT - follow this in spring training before you jump on Young.



[ January 13, 2009, 07:06 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]