Looking For Top 20 Sleepers

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Tue Jan 20, 2009 12:01 pm

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:

This year I'm going to focus more on balance and draft more conservatively ala Fudd, and take chances in the right spots. My drafts were horrible last year, I took too many chances early and my draft strategy stunk. I've got to right this ship in 2009. The best paragraph in a post that you have had to date. You've turned off of the Yahoo Highway and taken the NFBC ramp. Follow your own advice and you will do well. [/QUOTE]Thanks Doughboys. I admittedly am a work in progress. I feel like I'm pretty good at projecting stats, and very good at in-season management, but putting together a balanced team on draft day that has the edge over the rest of the league has been my biggest challenge.

What's interesting is my first NFBC league 2 years ago (WTA), I drafted very conservatively and ended up 2 points out of 1st place. If not for 5 rbi's and 2 homers I could have been in the Main Event 2008.

Then in 2008 I came in way overconfident. I researched more than I ever had before.....by far, 100's of hours, and for some reason I tricked myself into thinking I uncovered all these hidden gems and ended up screwing myself in the foot. Too many risky plays and risky strategies.

I'm glad last year happened because it was a humbling experience. I played in my competitive private 11x11 (12 team) league for 5 years, 3 1st place finishes and a 2nd place finish. I'm not used to losing. I'm still trying to get a handle on a 15 team - 30 round draft and I hope to be competitive again. [/QB][/QUOTE]Crazy- your drafts just baffle me. If you drafted the players you tout and the strategies you tout you would be fine. You seem to go off in another direction when the lights are on. The obvious answer is you are not ready for the big time. I personally do not think that is true. You just try to hard to shut all the people up like me who called you out when you acted like a fool upon arriving on these boards. Every pick is not a homerun and every pick does not require out of the box thinking.

You obviously have earned some respect and made some friends now including me. Just play your game and draft by your basic principles and you will be fine.

751542 · Post by **751542** » Tue Jan 20, 2009 12:14 pm

sound advice chest!!!

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Tue Jan 20, 2009 8:43 pm

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:

This year I'm going to focus more on balance and draft more conservatively ala Fudd, and take chances in the right spots. My drafts were horrible last year, I took too many chances early and my draft strategy stunk. I've got to right this ship in 2009. The best paragraph in a post that you have had to date. You've turned off of the Yahoo Highway and taken the NFBC ramp. Follow your own advice and you will do well. [/QUOTE]Thanks Doughboys. I admittedly am a work in progress. I feel like I'm pretty good at projecting stats, and very good at in-season management, but putting together a balanced team on draft day that has the edge over the rest of the league has been my biggest challenge.

What's interesting is my first NFBC league 2 years ago (WTA), I drafted very conservatively and ended up 2 points out of 1st place. If not for 5 rbi's and 2 homers I could have been in the Main Event 2008.

Then in 2008 I came in way overconfident. I researched more than I ever had before.....by far, 100's of hours, and for some reason I tricked myself into thinking I uncovered all these hidden gems and ended up screwing myself in the foot. Too many risky plays and risky strategies.

I'm glad last year happened because it was a humbling experience. I played in my competitive private 11x11 (12 team) league for 5 years, 3 1st place finishes and a 2nd place finish. I'm not used to losing. I'm still trying to get a handle on a 15 team - 30 round draft and I hope to be competitive again. [/QUOTE]Crazy- your drafts just baffle me. If you drafted the players you tout and the strategies you tout you would be fine. You seem to go off in another direction when the lights are on. The obvious answer is you are not ready for the big time. I personally do not think that is true. You just try to hard to shut all the people up like me who called you out when you acted like a fool upon arriving on these boards. Every pick is not a homerun and every pick does not require out of the box thinking.

You obviously have earned some respect and made some friends now including me. Just play your game and draft by your basic principles and you will be fine. [/QB][/QUOTE]Thanks Chest, I could not agree more.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Jan 21, 2009 1:42 am

Your PM box is full, Crazy.

mikenj46 · Post by **mikenj46** » Wed Jan 21, 2009 3:19 pm

Fred Lewis - OF- San Francisco Giants

Just passed the age of still being considered a prospect Lewis offers top 50 OF statistics with the upside for more. After finally being given a chance to play full time, Lewis put up solid fantasy numbers in 467 at bats. Now entrenched at the top of the San Francisco line-up he should approach 100 runs to go with a .280 BA and double digit home runs and stolen bases. Only a late season injury kept him from reaching those numbers last season and he finished with 81 runs, 9 home runs, and 21 stolen bases. If Lewis can stay healthy and reach 600 at bats he could reach 15 home runs and 30 stolen bases in 2009. Think Johnny Damon with Alex Rios upside at a fraction of the draft price.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Fri Jan 23, 2009 4:53 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Your PM box is full, Crazy. Thanks for letting me know.

I hate to empty it, lots of good stuff in there. Greg, how about we increase PM space?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Sat Jan 24, 2009 1:07 am

Come on I need some more sleepers by next week as I'm working on that story for the second issue of Fantasy Sports Magazine. I have about 8 writeups now, but need more. Just e-mail one player with one paragraph if you don't want to post them here. Thanks.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Sat Jan 24, 2009 1:20 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Come on I need some more sleepers by next week as I'm working on that story for the second issue of Fantasy Sports Magazine. I have about 8 writeups now, but need more. Just e-mail one player with one paragraph if you don't want to post them here. Thanks. you'll be getting mine this weekend. maybe i'll write up a couple for you.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sat Jan 24, 2009 5:57 am

Last i did Asdrubal Cabrera but didnt make the cut.

Early on it didnt look too good but in the 2nd half he went,

8 hr

41 run's

39 rbi's

306 bavg

Pretty good number's from a weak position

If he can get his steal's back to 2007 [23 steal's] and could be a top 10 second baseman.

By the way thats not my pick for this year.Ild come up with one this weekend.Greg if you could give a updated list of who's gone would help.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sat Jan 24, 2009 6:01 am

We've come a long ways in regards to the definition of a "sleeper". 6 or 7 years ago, Max Scherzer and David Price would be "sleepers". Now, they're household names before they ever step on a major league diamond.

Let me think of a couple and send them your way, Greg.

I'm sure Sandoval is on everyone's mind so I won't throw out the obvious.

Hell, I'll just list them here.

Ryan Shealy looks like a nice sleeper. I think Ryan needs 500 at-bats in a season to show what he can do. Look at his career, 164 games, 538 at-bats, .271-19-94. He has shown in the minors great power with solid BA and on-base percentage. I don't think things have ever fallen into place for him, whether it be injury or lack of playing time. He hit .280-22-62 in less than 400 minor league at-bats last year showing he's still current. And when the Royals brought him up in September he didn't disappoint hitting .301 with 7 homers and 20 rbi's. I think he still has big breakout potential to the tune of .290-27-100. Not bad for a guy you can pickup at the back end of your draft.

Wilson Betemit also comes to mind, could be a starter at third base for the White Sox and if he gets full time at-bats might be looking at .260-25-85 at 3rd base. In 2007 he had 14 homers and 50 rbi's in only 240 at-bats, so the power and potential for a small breakout is there. The average might not be. He also has dual eligibility 1b/3b.

[ January 24, 2009, 12:38 PM: Message edited by: Crazy Like a Fox ]

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sat Jan 24, 2009 6:12 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

I'll put some submissions here soon as I don't want to have folks duplicate them, but so far I've received these:

Jason Motte

Juan Rivera

Jason Motte

Felix Pie

Neftali Feliz

Not all of them will make the Top 20, but so far that's what we have, so don't duplicate them. Thanks all. Now you have 8. Can you list them?

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Sat Jan 24, 2009 6:29 am

Fausto Carmona - In 2007 he slid into the starting rotation and became a fantasy MVP for many squads that year who cashed in on his 19 win season. He helped lead the Indians to the playoffs that year, where the extra innings finally caught up to him.

Then came 2008, and the huge jump in innings from 2006 to 2007 took their toll as Carmona suffered through an injury plagued season. When he was healthy, he was pretty awful and posted an ERA North of 5.00 with a WHIP of 1.62!!!

Now it is 2009. CC Sabathia is gone and the Indians are counting on Carmona being the #2 guy behind Cliff Lee. One thing to like about Carmona coming into the season is that most of his problems came from an evaporation of his control last season. Known as an extreme groundball pitcher, Carmona doesn't blow hitters away, so if he is not sharp with his control he will struggle. Also, the major injury that he battled last year was a hip injury, so his arm should be fine. The hip injury could also explain the control problems.

What makes Carmona a sleeper. Well he is sliding into the last third of early NFBC drafts (I just nabbed him in the 20th rd as the 64th SP taken) and while you can't bank on him reaching his '07 heights, a bounce back season of 15 wins with a sub 4.00 ERA and WHIP around 1.25 is pretty nice value that late in the draft.

[ January 24, 2009, 12:35 PM: Message edited by: Ryan Carey ]

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sat Jan 24, 2009 6:39 am

Sending one now Greg.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sat Jan 24, 2009 6:43 am

Can I use Carlos Quentin again? You'd think with how good he was last year I'd be able to use him twice.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Jan 24, 2009 7:08 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Sending one now Greg. Kevin, Who did G Soros pitch for?

[ January 24, 2009, 01:23 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Sat Jan 24, 2009 7:40 am

Manny Parra - Well, I like to tout guys I actually draft and so far I have landed Manny Parra in two draft (NFBC Champions League-16th rd, pick 232 and NFBC $125 Slow Draft - 17th rd, pick 243). I am fairly certain by the time the Main Event rolls around he will be going much higher than this. Especially since you guys mentioned my choice of him in the mag.

All you have to do is take a closer look at the base skills that Parra brings to the table: Nice strikeout rates, increased his GB% to 51% up from 32% (FB% fell from 44% to 26%). He also had a huge spike in his skills in the second half which isn't readily apparent due to a bad ERA. That ERA was likely the result of bad luck and the average drafter will miss the upside.

The biggest hurdle left for Parra to clear is the walks - he has posted back to back seasons with a BB/9 above 4 - but look back to his past two minor league seasons ('06/'07) and you will see his sub 3 BB/9 rates, which gives hope that he can bring the walks under control.

With CC gone and Sheets likely to follow, Parra will get every chance to succeed this year. I think a conservative projection would be 10-13 wins with 150-160 K's with an ERA about 3.75 and a WHIP in the 1.30's- but if he figures it all out he has 200 K upside and Ace potential - which makes him a great sleeper for 2009.

[ January 24, 2009, 01:43 PM: Message edited by: Ryan Carey ]

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sat Jan 24, 2009 8:26 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Sending one now Greg. Kevin, Who did G Soros pitch for? [/QUOTE]He was trying to buy the Nationals a couple years ago. If successful, rumor was he'd pitch some mop-up duty. Watch to see if Matt Chico gets waived ...

I blame you, Dough, for the wave of signature upgrades.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sat Jan 24, 2009 2:52 pm

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Okay, it's time to see if our NFBC guys have the writing skills and the prognosticating skills to help out our readers in Fantasy Sports Magazine. I'm looking for 20 Top Sleeper Picks in 2009 and rather than pay some crusty ol' industry veteran the money to write this, I'm reaching out to my crusty ol' NFBC crowd for free content!!

There's an autographed Pete Rose baseball for the person who picks the best sleeper by the end of the year.

I can't remember who won last year, but I'll forward a baseball to whoever wins the prize. Alexei Ramirez or Nate McLouth were pretty damn good picks, that's all I remember.

I'm looking for one paragraph on why you think that player is a good sleeper for 2009. You can e-mail it to me at greg.ambrosius@fwmedia by Wednesday, Jan. 28th or post it here for all to see. Best 20 nominations will reach the second issue of Fantasy Sports Magazine for tens of thousands of fantasy players to see. Consider this 15 seconds of fame during your allotted 15 minutes of fame!!!

Who's up first?? It's time to put this article together. #1 - Shin-Soo Choo - Nicknamed Big League Choo, Shin-Soo, an up and coming outfielder for the Cleveland Indians, demonstrated last year he could not only hang with the big boys, but could dominate as well. Boasting a .343-11-48 with 50 runs in only 58 games in the 2nd half, he capped off the season with American League Player of the Month honors. If not for injuries in 2007 ending with Tommy John surgery, we might have seen this sooner. And at 26 years of age and turning 27 mid season, he'll be at the perfect age to take it another step further, to fantasy gold.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Sun Jan 25, 2009 8:31 am

Originally posted by Ryan Carey:

Fausto Carmona - In 2007 he slid into the starting rotation and became a fantasy MVP for many squads that year who cashed in on his 19 win season. He helped lead the Indians to the playoffs that year, where the extra innings finally caught up to him.

Then came 2008, and the huge jump in innings from 2006 to 2007 took their toll as Carmona suffered through an injury plagued season. When he was healthy, he was pretty awful and posted an ERA North of 5.00 with a WHIP of 1.62!!!

Now it is 2009. CC Sabathia is gone and the Indians are counting on Carmona being the #2 guy behind Cliff Lee. One thing to like about Carmona coming into the season is that most of his problems came from an evaporation of his control last season. Known as an extreme groundball pitcher, Carmona doesn't blow hitters away, so if he is not sharp with his control he will struggle. Also, the major injury that he battled last year was a hip injury, so his arm should be fine. The hip injury could also explain the control problems.

What makes Carmona a sleeper. Well he is sliding into the last third of early NFBC drafts (I just nabbed him in the 20th rd as the 64th SP taken) and while you can't bank on him reaching his '07 heights, a bounce back season of 15 wins with a sub 4.00 ERA and WHIP around 1.25 is pretty nice value that late in the draft. FYI - Indians pitching coach Carl Willis reportedly spotted a flaw in Fausto Carmona's delivery near the end of last season.

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Sun Jan 25, 2009 10:03 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by Ryan Carey:

Fausto Carmona - In 2007 he slid into the starting rotation and became a fantasy MVP for many squads that year who cashed in on his 19 win season. He helped lead the Indians to the playoffs that year, where the extra innings finally caught up to him.

Then came 2008, and the huge jump in innings from 2006 to 2007 took their toll as Carmona suffered through an injury plagued season. When he was healthy, he was pretty awful and posted an ERA North of 5.00 with a WHIP of 1.62!!!

Now it is 2009. CC Sabathia is gone and the Indians are counting on Carmona being the #2 guy behind Cliff Lee. One thing to like about Carmona coming into the season is that most of his problems came from an evaporation of his control last season. Known as an extreme groundball pitcher, Carmona doesn't blow hitters away, so if he is not sharp with his control he will struggle. Also, the major injury that he battled last year was a hip injury, so his arm should be fine. The hip injury could also explain the control problems.

What makes Carmona a sleeper. Well he is sliding into the last third of early NFBC drafts (I just nabbed him in the 20th rd as the 64th SP taken) and while you can't bank on him reaching his '07 heights, a bounce back season of 15 wins with a sub 4.00 ERA and WHIP around 1.25 is pretty nice value that late in the draft. FYI - Indians pitching coach Carl Willis reportedly spotted a flaw in Fausto Carmona's delivery near the end of last season. [/QUOTE]How about the beginning of the season?

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sun Jan 25, 2009 11:16 am

I wouldnt call Choo a sleeper.He would have been a nice call last year.

This is my pick David Purcey .This former number one pick really showed improvements in the 2nd half.

Overall between the minor's and major's Purcey won 11 games but the 154 k's in the 182 innings is the number im looking at.This is showing power and a chance to be a very good number three starter this year.He also raised his DOM in the second half to 8.0 and lowered his CTL to 2.2 very promising number's.With AJ Burnett heading to the Dark Side[or the Yankees] Purcey should jump right in his spot .Purcey is also 27 year's old the majic number for break out player's. I just grabbed Purcey in the 26th round in a draft in January but by the time spring training arrives you will need to bump him up three or four rounds.If everything goes right i could see 10 to 12 win's with 175 k's and a 3.75 era.This is great value this late in a draft.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sun Jan 25, 2009 11:46 am

Originally posted by eddiejag:

I wouldnt call Choo a sleeper.He would have been a nice call last year.

This is my pick David Purcey .This former number one pick really showed improvements in the 2nd half.

Overall between the minor's and major's Purcey won 11 games but the 154 k's in the 182 innings is the number im looking at.This is showing power and a chance to be a very good number three starter this year.He also raised his DOM in the second half to 8.0 and lowered his CTL to 2.2 very promising number's.With AJ Burnett heading to the Dark Side[or the Yankees] Purcey should jump right in his spot .Purcey is also 27 year's old the majic number for break out player's. I just grabbed Purcey in the 26th round in a draft in January but by the time spring training arrives you will need to bump him up three or four rounds.If everything goes right i could see 10 to 12 win's with 175 k's and a 3.75 era.This is great value this late in a draft. I realize Choo isn't quite the definition of a sleeper, but he is going as late as the 300th pick in some mocks and I'm pretty sure they'll have atleast a few "sleepers" that are listed in the mags that the fantasy community is well aware. And I don't think sleepers should simply be your long shots.

Just a hunch, Sandoval will probably be one of the top sleepers on that list, almost guaranteed, and everyone is well aware of his potential this year.

By the way, I like your Purcey pick. Last year he had great starts in between bad starts, but between his minor league record and his obvious strikeout potential, he has a chance to be very good.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Sun Jan 25, 2009 2:56 pm

Sean Gallagher

Gallagher is flying under the radar due to being young and playing for the Athletics. Don't let that stop you from drafting him late. The kid just turned 23, and he's already has the experience of throwing 130 innings in the majors. Sure his walk rate has been bad (so far), but he's displayed good control in the minors. In 21 games as a 22 year-old starter last year, he had two 8 strikeout games and boasted a season strikout rate of 8.2 per 9 innings. If he gets the walks under control, he will reward owners with one of 2009's late round jewels.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Jan 26, 2009 9:23 am

Okay, last chance to earn your 2 minutes of fame in our magazine.

I have 20 entries right now and have 13 who have definitely made the cut. E-mail me your entry by Wednesday morning of this week to be considered for the magazine. Send to [email protected]. Thanks all.

Lost Sailor · Post by **Lost Sailor** » Wed Jan 28, 2009 8:35 am

And the winners are...