Verducci Effect?

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 11:56 am

Anyone know what the Verducci Effect is and how it will impact 2009?

GYOZTES · Post by **GYOZTES** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 12:00 pm

this is off your topic-nonetheless, I am curious that a player who thinks so highly of himself has never come out to vegas to take on the NFBC best in either the AL or the NL auction? just wondering...

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 12:02 pm

It is probably another name for Tim Lincecum would be my guess.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 12:10 pm

Originally posted by GYOZTES:

this is off your topic-nonetheless, I am curious that a player who thinks so highly of himself has never come out to vegas to take on the NFBC best in either the AL or the NL auction? just wondering... i'll be taking on NY's finest in the mixed auction. i don't play al or nl, just like i don't play afc or nfc only leagues in football.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 12:11 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

It is probably another name for Tim Lincecum would be my guess. u might be right.

GYOZTES · Post by **GYOZTES** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 12:15 pm

please do not compare baseball with football. Although football is immensely more entertaining, nothing compares with the game of rotisserie baseball in terms of skill needed. Maybe one year you will try....

GYOZTES · Post by **GYOZTES** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 12:17 pm

that statement refers to fantasy sports ONLY-do not want chess masters berating me.

751542 · Post by **751542** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 12:24 pm

"if" you had been present at the AFL symposium hosted by ron shandler there was an entire morning dedicated to this very topic and pitchers to avoid this year...as you see my prep work started early.. and for 21.95 i will send the info...

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 1:02 pm

Verducci Effect

Named for Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated, this is a negative forward indicator for pitcher workload. Verducci, who called this the 'Year After Effect,' found that pitchers under the age of 25 who have 30-inning increases year over year tend to underperform. Will Carroll independently found that pitchers who break the "Rule of 30" tend to get injured. Carroll renamed this 'rule' the Verducci Effect in honor of the man who initially found the evidence.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 1:05 pm

Here is Verducci's column on SI.com (from lasty year)

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/w ... ducci.YAE/

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 1:07 pm

I thought it was about drafting all relievers in a draft.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 1:09 pm

Originally posted by GYOZTES:

please do not compare baseball with football. Although football is immensely more entertaining, nothing compares with the game of rotisserie baseball in terms of skill needed. Maybe one year you will try.... i'll never try al or nl only. just like i'll never try afc or nfc only. i'll leave that to the NFBC best

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 1:11 pm

Originally posted by RoundTrippers:

"if" you had been present at the AFL symposium hosted by ron shandler there was an entire morning dedicated to this very topic and pitchers to avoid this year...as you see my prep work started early.. and for 21.95 i will send the info...

i'm happy to report my information is better than shandler's.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 1:21 pm

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

Here is Verducci's column on SI.com (from lasty year)

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/w ... ducci.YAE/ thanks perry. from the article:

Here they are, the seven young pitchers most at risk for injury or a significantly higher ERA in 2008, ranked according to greatest innings increase:

1. Ian Kennedy, Yankees, 23 (+61 IP)

2. Fausto Carmona, Indians, 23 (+56.1)

3. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies, 24 (+41 2/3)

4. Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates, 25 (+40 1/3)

5. Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays, 25 (+38 2/3)

6. Chad Gaudin, Athletics, 24 (+36)

7. Yovani Gallardo, Brewers, 21 (+33)

i fell for carmona, mcgowan, and gallardo in my big money leagues last year. no wonder i sucked in the Super last year.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 2:29 pm

....and his list for 2009

Lester

Hamels

Billingsley

Danks

Pelfrey

Lincecum

Jurrjens

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 2:44 pm

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

....and his list for 2009

Lester

Hamels

Billingsley

Danks

Pelfrey

Lincecum

Jurrjens What's his hit/miss rate over the years he's done it?

~Lance

The Mighty Men · Post by **The Mighty Men** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 2:58 pm

The article in Sports Illustrated last year about Lincecum, his mechanics, and his father convinced me that this kid is different, and special.

Maybe he will get injured, but I'm buying this year.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 2:59 pm

I will be shocked if the 2009 group does bad .Gallarado was a fluke injury.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 3:14 pm

Lance - look at previous page for 2008 list which as far as I know is first time he published the column and list

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 3:34 pm

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

....and his list for 2009

Lester

Hamels

Billingsley

Danks

Pelfrey

Lincecum

Jurrjens i imagine once i start to do pitcher projections, i'll find this out, but where did u find this year's list?

[ February 05, 2009, 09:35 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko II ]

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 4:07 pm

So becoming a worthy SP...you only can earn 30 innings per year? (4 starts)

Seems like a small sample size and unproven theory.

~Lance

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 4:14 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

So becoming a worthy SP...you only can earn 30 innings per year? (4 starts)

Seems like a small sample size and unproven theory.

~Lance Did you read everything Lance?

[ February 05, 2009, 10:15 PM: Message edited by: Captain Hook ]

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 4:20 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by Captain Hook:

....and his list for 2009

Lester

Hamels

Billingsley

Danks

Pelfrey

Lincecum

Jurrjens i imagine once i start to do pitcher projections, i'll find this out, but where did u find this year's list? [/QUOTE]http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/1 ... update-7-r

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 6:40 pm

Originally posted by The Mighty Men:

The article in Sports Illustrated last year about Lincecum, his mechanics, and his father convinced me that this kid is different, and special.

Maybe he will get injured, but I'm buying this year. Actually SI had another article penned by Verducci in which he discusses Lincy's workload. I think it is objective; he certainly allows for the possibility that he's a freak who might buck the odds. At the same time, the Giants have tried their best to test the theory that he's indestructible.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/w ... index.html

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Feb 05, 2009 6:45 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

So becoming a worthy SP...you only can earn 30 innings per year? (4 starts)

Seems like a small sample size and unproven theory.

~Lance Always the contrarion, Lance. I imagine there is quite a large sample of pitchers who qualify and not only is this theory accepted in the scholarly community, teams actively use this as we've seen with pitchers that are well--perhaps over--managed like Joba and Clay.