Art McGee valuation

GYOZTES · Post by **GYOZTES** » Sat Feb 07, 2009 11:12 am

I am curious if any NFBC players use Art McGee's method of valuing players and what do they think of it? Have you been successful with it?

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Feb 07, 2009 11:28 am

Originally posted by GYOZTES:

I am curious if any NFBC players use Art McGee's method of valuing players and what do they think of it? Have you been successful with it? Never heard of him...I looked it up. Good Luck

Sack · Post by **Sack** » Sat Feb 07, 2009 1:10 pm

YES - YES...........lots of math.

Cowboy Joe · Post by **Cowboy Joe** » Sun Feb 08, 2009 1:14 pm

Hadn't heard of this method. Does it work better than my standard tool kit (Bacardi and a Ouija Board)? :rolleyes:

GYOZTES · Post by **GYOZTES** » Sun Feb 08, 2009 1:30 pm

I believe it is based on incremental superiority over an established base.(which he labels SGP) My initial impressions are that it actually is much more complicated. Any opinions out there?

Todd- I believe you made reference to a 20 page document that details your valuation theory-Did you adopt McGee's principles or come up with your own-if you have a link would love to read.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Feb 08, 2009 2:03 pm

I don't really want to get into it here, but I personally believe there are some serious flaws with the SGP system.

That said, any system that takes a fixed number of players and distributes a fixed number of dollars using their expected production is going to come up with a set of usable values. What determines the winner in a draft or auction is not the precision or accuracy of the values/rankings, but how the owner constructs his team using these values as a guide.

With that said, I have written a ton of stuff over the years on the topic, most of which has been behind a firewall that could be broken by sending the appropriate funds using your Paypal account. Presently, these essays are still behind a firewall, but now that I can and have the necessary platform, I am soon going to bring them out from behind the firewall and make them publicly available.

GYOZTES · Post by **GYOZTES** » Sun Feb 08, 2009 2:13 pm

agree 100%-looking forward to reading your material-also will be interesting to match wits with you and others-have my own game and valuation theories. I am curious to see where our ideas are similar/different.

Top Dawg · Post by **Top Dawg** » Sun Feb 08, 2009 3:28 pm

I've used Art's SPG formulas coupled with projections from Shandler, others and my own feelings/projections for players. Good, bad or indifferent, they do help you arrive at a "value" for each player.

As mentioned above, the trick is using these values, knowing/feeling what the ADP for these players will be and who at your draft table will scoop up players early regardless of ADP or value.

Truth be told, each draft will have it's own group of personalities that will start closer runs earlier than any other draft around you (same for starters, speedsters, etc).

Pete

GYOZTES · Post by **GYOZTES** » Sun Feb 08, 2009 4:59 pm

Big piece of advice for you drafters-get your speed early.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sun Feb 08, 2009 6:00 pm

Originally posted by GYOZTES:

I believe it is based on incremental superiority over an established base.(which he labels SGP) My initial impressions are that it actually is much more complicated. Any opinions out there?

Todd- I believe you made reference to a 20 page document that details your valuation theory-Did you adopt McGee's principles or come up with your own-if you have a link would love to read. I like to use the simpler approach, I call it "caveman calibration".

A-rod good, Bill Hall baaad.

I honestly think there is not one approach to player evaluation you should follow. Once you learn to how take every variable into consideration ie. trends, ballpark, age, contract situation, injury risk, lineup spot, surrounding lineup, off season workout regimen, steroids or lack of, significant addition or loss of muscle in offseason, minor league track record, position scarcity, and many, many more, in the end, you trust yourself and nobody else. You do the research, you don't let somebody else do it for you.

If the best of the best fantasy guys sent me their projection list, I'd probably look it up and down and then throw it away. You listen to what your heart tells ya. Just my opinion.

Hard Heads · Post by **Hard Heads** » Sun Feb 08, 2009 6:07 pm

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

quote:Originally posted by GYOZTES:

I believe it is based on incremental superiority over an established base.(which he labels SGP) My initial impressions are that it actually is much more complicated. Any opinions out there?

Todd- I believe you made reference to a 20 page document that details your valuation theory-Did you adopt McGee's principles or come up with your own-if you have a link would love to read. I like to use the simpler approach, I call it "caveman calibration".

A-rod good, Bill Hall baaad.

I honestly think there is not one approach to player evaluation you should follow. Once you learn to how take every variable into consideration ie. trends, ballpark, age, contract situation, injury risk, lineup spot, surrounding lineup, off season workout regimen, steroids or lack of, significant addition or loss of muscle in offseason, minor league track record, position scarcity, and many, many more, in the end, you trust yourself and nobody else. You do the research, you don't let somebody else do it for you.

If the best of the best fantasy guys sent me their projection list, I'd probably look it up and down and then throw it away. You listen to what your heart tells ya. Just my opinion. [/QUOTE]Well said Crazy!

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Sun Feb 08, 2009 6:12 pm

Sunday Night Drunken Soap Box...

The problem with the "all stats crowd" is that there is no stat to break ties. You can factor in a players numbers per opportunity...and the surrounding talent, and schedule...but when there are two similar players...the stats alone do not differentiate.

The "scout" types kill in the tie breaking business...using all of the intangibles they still cannot quantify into numbers.

...and you wonder why the computer guys seldom turn a profit.

~Lance

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Sun Feb 08, 2009 6:31 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Sunday Night Drunken Soap Box...

The problem with the "all stats crowd" is that there is no stat to break ties. You can factor in a players numbers per opportunity...and the surrounding talent, and schedule...but when there are two similar players...the stats alone do not differentiate.

The "scout" types kill in the tie breaking business...using all of the intangibles they still cannot quantify into numbers.

...and you wonder why the computer guys seldom turn a profit.

~Lance Yeah, one thing I like to look at that will never show up in stats is player motivation. Are they playing for a contract? Do they got a young gun their trying to keep from taking over their job etc.? Are the trying to prove they still got it?

That's kind of why I don't necessarily avoid altogether the Andruw Jones' and Travis Hafner's of the world. Aren't they going to do everything in their power to prove they still got it? Lots of things to take into consideration, not just plain old stats.

P.S. For the record I'm not saying Andruw Jones will make a big comeback, he is no Ray Durham

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Mon Feb 09, 2009 2:27 am

Originally posted by GYOZTES:

Big piece of advice for you drafters-get your speed early. Is that the way it has happened in all of the nfbc drafts you have participated in the past?

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Mon Feb 09, 2009 3:10 am

La la la, la la la la, la la la, la la la la

La la la la la Art McGee.

La la la la la, la la la la la

La la la la la, Art McGee, la.