Shawn Childs and BaseballMafia.com Live Chat Tuesday

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 11:45 am

OK guy's im off to the game.Have fun tonight with the Baseball Mafia and ild check in later.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 11:57 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Shawn: Promise me you will not bet any Superfectas on that Thursday night in Las Vegas.

I'm sure I can't resist the ponies on Thursday night. It's either a four team parley in the NCAA basketball tournament or a superfecta. This is the year of the big score in Vegas.

I see you have 258 sign ups for the main event and 145 for the online championship. During these tough times somehow we just find a way to play in the baseball events.

Thanks to you and Tom for all your hard work and running such a great event.

I guess it's time to answer some of these questions!

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 11:59 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

Shawn you have pick 14 or 15 and the following guys are gone

Arod, Hanley, Reyes, Pujols, Wright, Rollins, Grady, Miggy, Braun, Kinsler, Tex, Hamilton, Howard.

Give me a couple of sets of guys you may try to pair up and why? If you are not comfortable answering that I understand. How about who are you avoiding there and why? The first question you have to ask yourself is what kind of player are you. I can’t tell a power/power guy to take a middle infielder and speed outfielder. It’s all about style and how you want to start you team. Once you buy two pieces to the equation, your other hitters will be determined by your start to the team.

The first player you have to keep an eye on is Chase Utley. He is a lock to go on the turn if he is healthy in spring training. The second player is Evan Longoria. He will be gone on the turn in most drafts. A team that started with that combo would be in good shape.

If Utley’s status is cloudy, Longoria with speed would point me toward Crawford or Upton. If you were looking for power, Fielder, Lee, and maybe Quentin would come into play. If you bite on Quentin, you have to believe last year was for real.

I think BJ Upton is a live pick on the turn, but I wouldn’t buy two outfielders with my first two picks. If you decide to own BJ Upton, there will be batting average cover on the 3/4 turn.

The only player I see getting drafted that high I would avoid is Dustin Pedroia. He’s a nice player, but was last year as good as it gets for him? He does make great contact even though he swings from his heels. For some reason I just don’t see him as a twenty homerun hitter or twenty plus stolen base guy. He will hit for average and score some runs. Is he really Derek Jeter playing second base? I’m talking Jeter of 2009 not in the prime of his career.

FFBL23 · Post by **FFBL23** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:00 pm

Shawn,

When is the absolute latest you would wait to take a SP in a 15 team NFBC format??

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:01 pm

Originally posted by Quahogs:

Shawn, who will have the better year Hamels or Harden ? and why ?

I guess by the picture this is your softball question! The simple answer is Hamels has more guts. Harden has plenty of talent, but it doesn’t take much for him to go on the disabled list. I guess you hope someone picks up the next Fantasy Sports magazine just before the draft and takes Harden as his ace. I can see the smile on your face and thought in your mind “thanks for playing….hope you come back next year”.

Team Herron · Post by **Team Herron** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:01 pm

Greg - dear god! As long as the ladies say I am not looking like Emil's long lost son - then we will be ok.

Kicking the shaved head with beard at the moment.....likely change it up before March. Gotta keep everyone on there toes.

I dont think Dustin will be here tonight, but after witnessing his golf game at the FSTA conference........he's fine tuned for some action on the golf course

Bobby J · Post by **Bobby J** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:02 pm

Shawn - now that you have finished the first KJ Inv - what would you do different?. Need a little edge before we start the 2nd one on Thursday

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:05 pm

Shawn, for your flight to San Diego next week:

(a) Window

(b) Middle

(c) Aisle

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:05 pm

Who wins the 2B job in St. Louis - any chance Joe Thurston lives up to his "can't miss" hype of about 8 years ago or so?

How will Broxton do with closer role? What about Hoffman?

Sabathia or Burnett?

Bobby J · Post by **Bobby J** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:05 pm

Shawn - what is up with teaming with Jupinka for KJ Inv #2, I thought your team salary was pretty high in the first one now even though the players are 1/2 price you could eclipse your first team salary with Jupinka as a partner

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:07 pm

Originally posted by LONG GONE:

Shawn what are the 5 reasons that makes Eddie Gillis a better owner then you? 1-The first thing that always comes to mind is no matter how unorganized I think he is he still comes up with the right names time after time.

2-He is a much better player the last day of the season than I am and he has the $29,500 to prove it.

3-Eddie has great passion for the game and he is more willing to put his name on players. If he loves someone, he can’t hold it back.

4-Eddie is more of a hunch player than I am. I usually stick with my best players through thick and thin. He will gamble once in awhile and sit a hot bat thinking they are due for a down week.

5-In the pitching department he does a better job controlling whip and era.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:08 pm

If Willy Taveras is a "Judy", is Ryan Howard a "Punch"?

FFBL23 · Post by **FFBL23** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:08 pm

Shawn,

Of the past NFBC auctions that you have participated in, what were some of your hitting/pitching splits in regards to your $260 spent? What was your most extreme hitting/pitching split and how did it work for you? Do you even set a certain amount for hitting and pitching before draft day?

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:09 pm

Originally posted by Bama:

shawn who has a better team in the mlbc-10 league, me or that long gone fellow that keeps asking those crazy ?'s I think he has a better team, but he spent $1702 to your $514. When in reality, you might have a better chance of cashing as the manager of the year and he might fall just short of the top three teams. So it isn’t about who’s team is better, it’s about who did a better job executing their game plan. If you both fail to cash, you were the wiser man because you will be only down $514.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:10 pm

Originally posted by Red Sox Nation:

Shawn,

Between NFBC, Satellites, and local/home leagues how many fantasy baseball teams are you involved in this year?

Doesn't it make Sunday's insane with FAAB?

Thanks I will have 12 teams to manage with free agents this year. Two of the teams have Saturday pick ups. I’m also will be involved in 4 DC leagues.

It looks like Sunday will be tough this year. It’s a huge commitment to be around the house for 26 straight weeks. I can knock 5 leagues no problem in 4 hours, but I don’t like to start anything until late in the afternoon which is a problem. I think the 12 team online teams are going to require a lot more thought. The free agent pools will be larger making the decisions tougher from week to week.

LONG GONE · Post by **LONG GONE** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:14 pm

Very well put about Eddie Gillis. You are a class act Shawn.

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:15 pm

Kinsler or Pedroia?

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:15 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

I will have 12 teams to manage with free agents this year. Good luck with this -- hey, it worked for Cocktails and Dreams!

FFBL23 · Post by **FFBL23** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:18 pm

I've been hearing a lot of chatter on these boards about taking just one closer on Draft Day which allows you to beef up on offense and SP a little more. What do you think of this? Would you try it?

Team Herron · Post by **Team Herron** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:19 pm

Kinsler

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:19 pm

Originally posted by LONG GONE:

Will we ever see Eric Peden from BaseballMafia again? Very sharp guy that would share information. In baseball terms, Eric Peden has been traded for a player to be named later. His original contract required his photo to shown for x number of days. If and when he returns to the high stakes games, he will be welcomed back.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:20 pm

Originally posted by LONG GONE:

Shawn list 8 starting pitchers that you would like to have as a number 4 starter or your main event team this year? This is a tough question because everyone doesn’t structure their team the same. Most players will be looking for their fourth starter anywhere from the 13th to the 16th round. I can’t really list eight straight pitchers because I might be missing someone who slips through the cracks. If David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Scott Baker, or Kevin Slowey slipped through, they would all make nice fourth starters. In most drafts I think you will be looking at Jered Weaver, Brandon Morrow, Erik Bedard, Johnny Cueto, Ted Lilly, Gil Meche, Ubaldo Jimenez, and John Maine. As of today I would consider any of these players as possible fourth starters in March, but in a month-half of these names could be off the list. In spring training you have a very short window before the main event to identify who might have problems going into the season.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:20 pm

Originally posted by Team Herron:

Greg - dear god! As long as the ladies say I am not looking like Emil's long lost son - then we will be ok.

Kicking the shaved head with beard at the moment.....likely change it up before March. Gotta keep everyone on there toes.

I dont think Dustin will be here tonight, but after witnessing his golf game at the FSTA conference........he's fine tuned for some action on the golf course The ladies LOVE the new look Jesse, trust me. I've heard them talking about it even here in Iola. The Polish babes especially love it!!

I just talked to Emil on Friday. Sounds like he's doing fine.

Keep the look for March and join us in Las Vegas for the baseball craziness. The NFBC wouldn't be the same without you guys involved. Hopefully you can join us and kick Shawn and Eddie's butts in some events.

Sorry I didn't make the FSTA event as I would have loved to have golfed. What did your foursome shoot, ten under or so?? If Rob was in your foursome, I'd put my money on you guys. Be good and stay well.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:21 pm

Hi Jesse, what's up? Are you playing in the NFBC this year? Is it football season yet?

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:21 pm

Originally posted by rkulaski:

Shawn, 3 questions.

1. After reading GG's chat from Monday night, I was wondering what is your system for making player projections? Like GG, I also use Shandler as a starting point and look at the previous 3 years stats.

2. My co-manager and I have debated when to draft speed. Do you try to draft speed early (i.e. if 160 steals is your target, do you draft 1/3 of your speed in the first 3 rds?), or wait until later? Do you prefer to get multiple 20-20 guys, or one 50-steal player later i.e. Tavarez.

3. What are your thoughts on when to draft your catchers this year? Advantages or disadvantages to drafting one of the M&M boys or Soto in the 4th or 5th rd?

thanks, Rich. 1-My system for projection is pretty simple-I don’t have any. When I see a player’s name, I have an idea of what I think they can do. Most of the time I low ball a player’s stats. By doing this it should average out over the whole draft. For example, Manny Ramirez to me is a .300, 30/100 player. If he hits 37 homeruns and knocks in 125, it’s a bonus. By him doing better than I expect, he will cover someone else who falls short. Robinson Cano to me is a .280+ hitter with 20 homerun power, but his upside is limited to where he hits in the batting order. If he could ever bat in the top three, his value would be a lot more.

2-I think most people know I’m not a big fan of the Judy type base stealers as in Willie Tavarez. Over the last couple of years I’ve seem many owners draft Adam Dunn and they try to cover his batting average with Pierre or Tavares. If you add them together, they don’t have an edge over their competition with that combo. If you look at past history in the NFBC, you can see where the overall winner has been pretty balanced after three draft pick. To me, the best draft after to three picks was David DiDonato in 2006. He drafted Carl Crawford, Alfonzo Soriano, and Lance Berkman. They had 109 homeruns and 101 steals. How’s that for a start to the team? Those three picks put him position to be a runaway winner that year. So I doubt you can get a 100 homers and 100 steals after the first 3 picks, but I know it’s possible to get 75+ in both areas. In the past I’ve tried to get close to half of my steals covered in the first three rounds, but you need the homers also. Each year is different and each draft will have different buying opportunities. I’ve seen a few drafts where you could find speed after round 16, but you could be in the wrong league and it could be gone in the early teens. I prefer to draft a balanced team, but you can only take what is there for you.

3-I’m a catcher guy. I don’t need to have the best, but I don’t want to get beat in that area. If you look at some leagues final standings, you can see where 30 more runs scored might be 5-8 points in the standings. If you ignore catchers, you could be on the wrong side of those numbers many years. Those 5 points over time will cost you some money. When you look at the top 5 catchers, do you want one or two of them or just one of the top 5? I think the top catchers are tough this year because they tend to land on teams 7-15 in the draft. I think it is all about having an edge. If you believe you will have edge at that position, then you pull the trigger in the 4th or 5th round. If you see someone else of equal value a few rounds later, you might be the one who has an edge. In 1999 Ivan Rodriguez was a huge edge at catcher. I think there are only two catchers who could have that kind of impact. It might not be this year or it might never happen, but they have the skills to have a major impact if they take their game to the next level.