Shawn Childs and BaseballMafia.com Live Chat Tuesday

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:23 pm

Originally posted by King of Queens:

Shawn, for your flight to San Diego next week:

(a) Window

(b) Middle

(c) Aisle Window!

Team Herron · Post by **Team Herron** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:24 pm

The foursome was myself, Dustin, Mark Hanna from RT and Dennis Phillips from WSOP fame. We shot -11 I believe, but you cant win your own tourney as we were the hosts. so, -7 got the title.

I plan on being there, I am always there. Its my escape and I love fantasy baseball. how many people could lose over $10k on 1/3 of an inning pitched (Grrrrrr).

I will lock in my spot soon, my only concern is a disney trip for which the dates keep moving. Ive got Disney, Vegas and a visit back to Murray State for a 50 year fraternity reunion I committed to in the span of 4 weeks......just making sure I wont get divorced....at least for this

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:30 pm

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Thanks for taking questions, Baseball Mafia! Please, take a cannoli and a cream soda!

Which of these former wunderkinds will live up to their former billing/hype this year?

Billy Bulter

Felix Pie

Jeff Clement

BTW, looking forward to saying hello in Vegas. I might be flying in Thursday evening, so maybe I can catch up to the group in the sports book. Out of the three, I think Billy Butler will have the best major league career. His value this year will be based on where he will hit in the lineup. I liked him last year, but I’ve yet to own him this year. He comes fairly priced, but spring training will drive his value. I think Pie will get his chance this year, but he won’t play everyday. As a reserve pick, he will be playable at certain points of the year. Jeff Clement could be a nice pick at catcher if they give him regular at bats at DH. If he is given a chance this year, I think he makes solid progress. If they sign a Garret Anderson type to play DH, his value takes a huge blow. I think all three players are interesting this year.

I look forward to seeing you in Vegas. Hopefully you aren’t sitting next to me in the main event. If so, I’ll be a Brave man and let most of Atlanta players slide to you except one!

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:31 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by LONG GONE:

Will we ever see Eric Peden from BaseballMafia again? Very sharp guy that would share information. In baseball terms, Eric Peden has been traded for a player to be named later. His original contract required his photo to shown for x number of days. If and when he returns to the high stakes games, he will be welcomed back. [/QUOTE]I wish Eric would return to the NFBC in some form. He was the one who pushed me to do a 10 or 12 team Online Championship and he was also a very competitive and successful player with us. Was a coincidence that the one year he hung out with us in Las Vegas, gambling Sunday night away at the Excalibur, that he chose not to return the next year??

I blame Shawn for the bad influence on this young man.

Now get him back home where he belongs. With us.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:32 pm

Originally posted by Dub:

1- Out of the following who is most likely to exceed expectations and who will fall short and why?

2- What number in your rotation would you like each to be?

Billingsley

Lester

Garza

Gallardo

Price 1-I think Lester is going to the one that exceeds expectations. Many will think last year was as good as it gets with him, but he could be the best starter on the Red Sox right now. If you throw out April last year, his numbers were great the rest of the year. His era was 2.95 and his whip was 1.21. Over that span his walks per nine innings were 2.27. With continued improvement in his control, he should be even better.

I think David Price is the one that will fall short of expectations. I think he is an elite talent, but he did have some injury concern during last year’s spring training. He is their future ace and the really need to bring him along slowly. I think last year he threw 110 innings. I think he will pitch well, but he won’t deliver enough innings to be a 2nd or 3rd starter. He will be a very good 4th starter if you could ever get him that late. If you have a front line stud like Lincecum or Santana, you could draft him as a third and add a solid 4th starter after him.

Billingsley-He is number two until he improves on his walks. I’d like to see him pitch well in spring training to prove his leg is healthy.

Lester-He is a number two until he can push his strikeouts over 200.

Garza-His strikeouts put him as a 5th or 6th, but he is getting drafted as a 3/4 starter. With his talent, I could live with him being a number four starter for me.

Gallardo-He’s getting drafted as a number two. I just wonder how many innings they allow him to pitch this year. I’ll say he’s a 2/3 depending on who you have in front of him.

Price-He is a great number four, but I could see someone taking him as a number three with the right combo.

[ February 10, 2009, 06:32 PM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:34 pm

Originally posted by Dub:

Do you have a maximum number of risky selections you would take for an entire draft? (risky defined as young and unproven or injury) In the past I’ve been burnt by not being careful who I build my core around. I think it is important to avoid injury risk players, but I’ve also learned that some injury risk players might not break down just because I think so. If they are a special player, they will be a point where you have to add them to your roster. If you add too many, you are asking for trouble. As for young players, you have to ask yourself: Are they ready to make the next step up? Miguel Cabrera, David Wright, Ryan Braun, and Evan Longoria were ready to play in the majors. Those four alone should prove you can’t ignore young talent. In every draft you have to have some players with upside. If you build your whole team on upside players, they most likely won’t peak at the same time.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:37 pm

Originally posted by Team Herron:

The foursome was myself, Dustin, Mark Hanna from RT and Dennis Phillips from WSOP fame. We shot -11 I believe, but you cant win your own tourney as we were the hosts. so, -7 got the title.

I plan on being there, I am always there. Its my escape and I love fantasy baseball. how many people could lose over $10k on 1/3 of an inning pitched (Grrrrrr).

I will lock in my spot soon, my only concern is a disney trip for which the dates keep moving. Ive got Disney, Vegas and a visit back to Murray State for a 50 year fraternity reunion I committed to in the span of 4 weeks......just making sure I wont get divorced....at least for this Trust me, when you shoot -11 you win the prize, host or not. Sheesh. Nice shooting. I was close on my prediction.

Will you let go of that damn 1/3 IP loss!!

Damn, last year with those two extra games sure was a killer for some teams, wasn't it? I hope we end the 2009 season on Sunday night with no extra games. I hate that for everyone.

Okay, good to hear. Keep the wife, postpone the Disney trip to April, get your baseball cheat sheets ready and GET IN THE MAIN EVENT!!!

There, I saved your marriage and got you to March Madness with the rest of our crazies. See ya in five weeks.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:37 pm

Originally posted by poopy tooth:

Shawn, you have mentioned the 75-75 draft strategy after 3 rounds, do you feel this is the best chance of winning the overall prize?

Also, I know a lot depends on who falls to you, but assuming, you get out of first 3, with 75/75, what do you look for in rounds 4-6 and then 7-9? I think a balance team has the best chance to compete in all categories. If you get a couple of areas wrong at the draft table, you have the ability to find help on the waiver wire. In the 15 team format, it is difficult to fix some problems through free agency. At the draft, you want position yourself to have a chance in all categories. In order to win the overall title you have to have an edge over the field somewhere. Last year Robert Jurney was able to get an edge with a high average/power base. This year you might find your edge somewhere else.

Once you have decided who you want to build your team around with your first three picks. You then have to decide who you want as an ace and what you want to do with saves. Depending on my draft slot, I think I will draft my ace in rounds 4-6. If I feel there is a drop off in talent, I might try to take an edge by drafting a top closer in rounds 4-6. The other selection would most likely be a player from a scarce position. In round 7-9, I’ll look to draft my second starter. Last year a made a huge mistake by passing on my second starter on the 6/7 turn. Every draft will flow different so need to get a feel for how the pitchers and closers are getting drafted. There will be a closer run at some point between round 5 and 9. The starting pitching might get pushed back a round because your group of drafters are focusing on offense. You can either react or make other owners react to you. With the other two selections in rounds 7-9, I’ll be trying to find where a player slipped through the cracks or fill an area of need. Without knowing my first few picks, I can’t really say what I need.

[ February 10, 2009, 09:59 PM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:38 pm

Originally posted by Top Dawg:

Shawn,

What round do you pull the trigger on a guy that was an early round choice last year but injuries killed his season. Specifically, if still sitting there, what round can you no longer pass:

Tulo -

Bedard -

Thanks - Pete For Tulowitzki, you can’t pass on him when you see how weak the other players are at his position after him. Where he hits in the batting order and his spring training will drive his draft position. From what I’ve seen, he is getting drafted by the middle of the 6th round in most drafts. If you want him, what is your trade off if you take him in the 5th round? On most teams it would be the ace of your team. So ask yourself what is the difference between the two pitchers you could get in the 5th or 6th rounds and what is the difference between Tulowitzki and whoever the next shortstop is on your list. I bet the gap is larger between the shortstops.

Right now Bedard is going around the 13 round. He is only sitting there because he hasn’t pitched yet. If he looks healthy, he will most likely be a second starter on some teams this year. I bet he doesn’t look as attractive now. He’s on bad team coming off an injury. As your 4th pitcher, he is a high upside pick if healthy. As a number two, he is a risky investment with comparable options. You have to believe he will be better than the safer options. For me, Bedard is a player you have to really follow in spring training and hint of a set back and he’s off the draft list.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:39 pm

Originally posted by Hard Heads:

Shawn,

In talking to you I know you are not a guy who makes player projections per se, but as you go through your draft and are chasing your targets, who's numbers are you using to reach your goals? Are they numbers you have come up with yourself you just haven't written down on paper?

Craig As I go through the draft, I always have a feel for where I stand in batting average. As I add players, I think of them as plus, minus, or neutral. The other numbers such as homer and steals I just have an idea from playing in previous years. I might shoot for 300 homeruns when I really know they have dropped off the last couple of years and I’m probably ok with 280. Sometimes during the draft I might quickly go down my drafted players and give them a number for steals and homeruns to see where I stand. It will help me with some later picks. Do I need a 10/30 guy or is a 15/15 player ok?

Team Herron · Post by **Team Herron** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:41 pm

Bedard is a bum (on all of my teams last year - evn after you warned me)

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:41 pm

Originally posted by headhunters:

to all baseball mafia guys: in reading these boards the last 2 years, i always see people talk about a fantasy teams "ace" or their "3rd starter" or "4th starter". it confuses me. when i draft my pitchers, i look at them all as " inventory"- i put 9 in my lineup each week and all of their stats count. am i playing the game wrong? can i denote my " 4th starter" my "ace", and get more points? was cliff lee jurneys "7th starter" when he plucked him off the waiver wire? to me- he looked like an "ace". also- if i pitch 7 starters and 2 closers- how can i have a " 6th starter" when baseball teams don't. is that why i lose every year- or is it the players i draft and pickup. thanks As every fantasy baseball season progresses, you get a feel for your pitching staff. On draft day it is pretty simple-your first pitcher taken is your ace and your fourth pitcher taken is your fourth starter. As they pitch, you will get a feel for who really are your best pitchers. They will really rank themselves for you. If you are not having success, maybe you have too many number four starters on your team! If you want improve you chances, try to see if you can draft as many number one starters as you can! They aren’t number one in terms of real baseball teams. A number one starter should be a 200 strikeout guy with solid whip and era. A number four starter should have 150 strikeouts and not be a negative in whip and era. If they are a positive, maybe they are really a number three……does it really matter? Your 6th or 7th starters are pitchers who aren’t automatics every week.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:41 pm

138 on the boards right now. Good job Shawn. Your answers are honest and very thought provoking. I'm sure this entire thread will be a good read for days to come. Thanks and keep going BaseballMafia.com guys.

[ February 10, 2009, 06:43 PM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:42 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

Shawn:

1. Where did you go wrong last year in the main event?

2. Who wins the 100K first, you or Jupinka?

3. Will Rich Harden be on your team this year? 1-Last year I made many mistakes. My first love Rickie Weeks broke my heart and left me looking like an ass. My second mistake was not taking my second starter on the 6/7 turn. It left me chasing pitching the rest of the draft. My third mistake was being sucked in by Rafael Soriano. I broke rule number one. If a closer is having any problems in spring training, he is off the draft sheet. The writing was on the wall for Soriano, but I was too stupid to read it. Can we forget my fourth-Andrew Jones? Didn’t I show extreme patience with him? My two biggest mistakes during the season were not picking up Ricky Nolasco and missing on Alexei Ramirez 104 to 98.

2-You’re the cocky one…so I’ll go with you.

3-You will not see Rich Harden on my team unless he slips past round 15.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:43 pm

Originally posted by Quahogs:

CCD,

There used to be a fantasy baseball offseason. Now you better be familiar with all 40 man rosters by mid-december. Do you find this tedious or does finding Shandler's List under your tree still create the warm fuzzys like it did back in the early 90's ? I look forward to getting the baseball forecaster. It’s like it starts off the beginning to the next season. It’s a good reference book when you are doing research. In my early days, we used to call it the bible…..did I read bible on the front of it this year? Where did that come from?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:46 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Quahogs:

CCD,

There used to be a fantasy baseball offseason. Now you better be familiar with all 40 man rosters by mid-december. Do you find this tedious or does finding Shandler's List under your tree still create the warm fuzzys like it did back in the early 90's ? I look forward to getting the baseball forecaster. It’s like it starts off the beginning to the next season. It’s a good reference book when you are doing research. In my early days, we used to call it the bible…..did I read bible on the front of it this year? Where did that come from? [/QUOTE]Hey, you know if you attend the Arizona Fall League Symposium you get your copy of the Baseball Forecaster mailed to you before anyone else.

Maybe you should put that trip in the travel budget for 2009. I know RT is coming back because we found the perfect sports bar on Sunday for the NFL games (that one you and I went to was barricaded, foreclosed, believe it or not), and I'm sure Terry Haney, Zola, Perry, Gene, Menna, and all of the other NFBC stalwarts will be there. Think about it.

Team Herron · Post by **Team Herron** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:47 pm

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by Team Herron:

The foursome was myself, Dustin, Mark Hanna from RT and Dennis Phillips from WSOP fame. We shot -11 I believe, but you cant win your own tourney as we were the hosts. so, -7 got the title.

I plan on being there, I am always there. Its my escape and I love fantasy baseball. how many people could lose over $10k on 1/3 of an inning pitched (Grrrrrr).

I will lock in my spot soon, my only concern is a disney trip for which the dates keep moving. Ive got Disney, Vegas and a visit back to Murray State for a 50 year fraternity reunion I committed to in the span of 4 weeks......just making sure I wont get divorced....at least for this Trust me, when you shoot -11 you win the prize, host or not. Sheesh. Nice shooting. I was close on my prediction.

Will you let go of that damn 1/3 IP loss!!

Damn, last year with those two extra games sure was a killer for some teams, wasn't it? I hope we end the 2009 season on Sunday night with no extra games. I hate that for everyone.

Okay, good to hear. Keep the wife, postpone the Disney trip to April, get your baseball cheat sheets ready and GET IN THE MAIN EVENT!!!

There, I saved your marriage and got you to March Madness with the rest of our crazies. See ya in five weeks. [/QUOTE]Do we get both live and online marriage counseling?

Lie I said, you can count on me - come hell or high water I intend to be there. I expect to be in on Weds for cards with FreddyZ, by Thursday have cocktails with Schinker, pay off my bet to RT on Friday before losing at the ponies, then spend Satuday convincing myself I outdrafted childs and make more foolish prop bets with him on out teams.

Note to Shawn: Jesse 2, you 1 last year

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:47 pm

Originally posted by JohnZ:

Shawn, Eddie, Jesse, Dustin...

What are you top 5 kds picks this year?

What are you bottom 5 kds picks this year? You know I’m not a KDS guy. I’m always looking for the highest possible draft slot. What I’ve noticed is the last five draft slots seemed to have the edge from rounds 2-8 and the front five spots seem to regain the edge in about round 9 and hold that edge for about 8 rounds.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:50 pm

Originally posted by FFBL23:

Shawn,

When is the absolute latest you would wait to take a SP in a 15 team NFBC format?? If you want to cheat starting pitching, it could be a roller coaster from year to year. You might get it right one out of five years. I think you can wait until the 7th or 8th round, but there’s no way to guarantee the pitchers you hope to be there will be there. There’s no doubt it can be done. It’s just matter of how successful it will be from year to year.

Team Herron · Post by **Team Herron** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:51 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by JohnZ:

Shawn, Eddie, Jesse, Dustin...

What are you top 5 kds picks this year?

What are you bottom 5 kds picks this year? You know I’m not a KDS guy. I’m always looking for the highest possible draft slot. What I’ve noticed is the last five draft slots seemed to have the edge from rounds 2-8 and the front five spots seem to regain the edge in about round 9 and hold that edge for about 8 rounds. [/QUOTE]For me, my KDS preferences are 1-2-3-4-5-13-14-15-11-12-8-10-9-6-7

I like being up front again this year. Id prefer to draft sooner than later given no other facts. From there, I actually prefer the back to the middle. I think its easier to dictate psoitional runs in the draft with multiple draft picks in close proximity than when you sit in the middle

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:54 pm

To Eddie and Shawn...

Example..

You have pick 9 in a ME league in Vegas...you draft in LV4 in 2009.

If you drafted instead in LV12...how close do you think your team would look if different players fell to you each round?

In other words...do you have a goal of getting one of three players in round 1 (pick 9), then target a few more rounds the same way...but at the same time have plans B and C and D for when a coveted player you had not planned for drops to you. (or a player you thought would drop, does not).

Could you draft pick 9 in two Vegas main event drafts...and have similar teams...or would they be very different?

What would be your guess as to how many of the first 10 rounds would be the same?

11-20 same?

21-30 same?

Are the players you snag later on (the sleeper core) the ones you'd see more often on both teams?

~Lance

In the past I’ve always have certain drop downs in most drafts. In the first round I might like three players like you said, but in the second I might only like a couple. If they are gone, I might jump a player that fits my style. On the back end of the draft, you have to ask yourself who is more important the second player on your team or the first. I think two years ago, KJ made the right call in this philosophy. He liked Rollins and he thought he was more important to his team. He took him in the first round instead of the second. In the second round he could live with the couple of options that were left. I made a mistake in 2007 by not using this same idea. Rios was pretty popular heading into Vegas. I knew the Gene McCaffrey was in my league and most likely take him on the 4/5 turn from the one hole. I planned my draft by taking Rios in the 5th round which was still ahead of his ADP. If I was a WISE GUY, I would have beat him to the punch and taken him early in the fourth round.

As for later in the draft, I might have an idea who I want-say I want a second basemen in the 12th round. If he is gone before my pick, I know about where the next guy I like goes. It could be 17th round or maybe in later. If I miss, I always know where I want to go. Just because I like someone it doesn’t mean they will be successful. So sometimes you miss on who you want and the next player on the list is the better player.

In 2007 I had someone draft a team for me in New York from the 11 hole and I drafted from the 12 hole in Vegas. The teams were very similar, but he free laced off my script. Overall they had a core of the same players. I think if I was doing both drafts they would have been a lot closer.

I think you could have 6-8 players the same if you had a good feel for how the players would fall.

In round 11-20, you might only be able to hit on half of the picks.

In round 21-30, the first half might be different just based on team needs. In the reserve round you could have a good chance of getting over half of them the same if you had a solid list of players who you think might help you late.

I really don’t think the sleepers would be the same. I think it would be easier to match up back end pitching. Maybe you could call them sleepers, but most of them would be pitchers who have underperformed in the past.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:54 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by LONG GONE:

Will we ever see Eric Peden from BaseballMafia again? Very sharp guy that would share information. In baseball terms, Eric Peden has been traded for a player to be named later. His original contract required his photo to shown for x number of days. If and when he returns to the high stakes games, he will be welcomed back. [/QUOTE]Now THAT I like!

Stop playing (and proving your value) in the high stakes arena...or you get BENCHED! Sweet!

~Lance

Team Herron · Post by **Team Herron** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:54 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by FFBL23:

Shawn,

When is the absolute latest you would wait to take a SP in a 15 team NFBC format?? If you want to cheat starting pitching, it could be a roller coaster from year to year. You might get it right one out of five years. I think you can wait until the 7th or 8th round, but there’s no way to guarantee the pitchers you hope to be there will be there. There’s no doubt it can be done. It’s just matter of how successful it will be from year to year. [/QUOTE]I waited until the 9th round in the Childs league....clearly 1-2 rounds late.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:55 pm

Originally posted by Bobby J:

Shawn - now that you have finished the first KJ Inv - what would you do different?. Need a little edge before we start the 2nd one on Thursday I’d wish for a better draft slot. I think it was a tough start with Sizemore and Phillips as my first two players. I don’t think it was a bad start, but it was difficult to build the team I wanted early for a low price. I tried to keep the cost in line except for Santana, but in round 13 it was time to be a contender or pretender. I decided to spend my way into contention. When I look back, I wish I had a couple of front line starters for a fair price. I don’t think you can half ass it. It’s either play to win or play to win manager of the year. The teams caught in between might not have enough depth to win. You have the right approach and you are one of the contenders.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Feb 10, 2009 12:56 pm

Originally posted by poopy tooth:

Who wins the 2B job in St. Louis - any chance Joe Thurston lives up to his "can't miss" hype of about 8 years ago or so?

How will Broxton do with closer role? What about Hoffman?

Sabathia or Burnett? Orlando Hudson….Isn’t Thurston caught on that tropical island with Gilligan?

Broxton could be a special closer if he can handle the load. He’s had three very good year and he’s only 24.

Hoffman will be very aggravating to own. Are you excited about a pitcher who leaves the best pitcher park in the majors and his fastball is the same as his best pitch-the change up-think Todd Jones.

Sabathia has to be better the A.J. Pavano. Burnett could have a good year, but there is no way he lives up to his contract.

[ February 10, 2009, 06:57 PM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]