CreativeSports.com Live Chat: Today at 2 p.m. EST/7 EST

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:48 am

We have four writers from CreativeSports.com in our NFBC main event again this year and I thought it would be fun to get all four of them on a live chat today. So we'll have two of them here live at 2 p.m. EST and then two more tonight at 7 p.m. EST for anyone who would like to ask more questions.

I've actually asked both sets of writers to even answer the same set of questions to see what type of different views they all have about certain players, strategies, theories. I wouldn't expect them to have the same view on everything, so hopefully you'll get a lot of interesting viewpoints.

Scott "Buster" Zeidman won a league title in the NFBC last year and will be live at 2 EST along with JP Kastner. I think I have that right. Then Brian Walton and Marc Meltzer will be live tonight. Let's load them up with a lot of questions this morning so that they have time to get started on their answers and then we can have a fun, lively debate this afternoon and tonight.

Thanks guys for taking the time out of your busy schedules for this and enjoy the MB banter.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 1:16 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

We have four writers from CreativeSports.com in our NFBC main event again this year and I thought it would be fun to get all four of them on a live chat today. So we'll have two of them here live at 2 p.m. EST and then two more tonight at 7 p.m. EST for anyone who would like to ask more questions.

I've actually asked both sets of writers to even answer the same set of questions to see what type of different views they all have about certain players, strategies, theories. I wouldn't expect them to have the same view on everything, so hopefully you'll get a lot of interesting viewpoints.

Scott "Buster" Zeidman won a league title in the NFBC last year and will be live at 2 EST along with JP Kastner. I think I have that right. Then Brian Walton and Marc Meltzer will be live tonight. Let's load them up with a lot of questions this morning so that they have time to get started on their answers and then we can have a fun, lively debate this afternoon and tonight.

Thanks guys for taking the time out of your busy schedules for this and enjoy the MB banter. Sounds great, always better to get different perspectives on player/strat.

What 2 pitchers currently going in the 7+ rounds (besides Billingsley, Gallardo) could join the elite as soon as this year?

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 1:41 am

Was Derek Jeter's 2008 just another year on a downward trend or can it be more attributed to injuries?

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 1:44 am

The top three second basemen(t) in the early going appear to be Kinsler, Pedroia, and Utley. Utley's only question mark appears to be when he will be healthy, not if he will be healthy. However, general concerns are popping up for Kinsler (injury-prone) and Pedroia (can he repeat, especially speed). Are Kinsler and Pedroia worthy of first/early second round consideration, especially considering 2B is a bit thin, or are people setting themselves up for a 2009 buzz-kill?

[ February 17, 2009, 07:45 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 1:55 am

Can the Mets REALLY be thinking of moving Reyes to the #3 hole, or is that just spring-training sound bite? How does the #3 hole impact Reyes' fantasy value? Does it drop him from top five consideration?

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 1:56 am

How badly will McLouth miss Bay and Nady over the course of the whole 2009 season?

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 2:12 am

If you had a pick between Chris Davis and Dan Uggla for the 2009 season, who would it be and why?

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 2:14 am

Is it recommended going after one of the big M's at catcher or waiting until later to grab your catchers?

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 2:18 am

Who has more rbi this year, Nelson Cruz or Chris Davis?

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 2:29 am

Tommy Hanson could be the next dominant pitcher we see come through the pipeline. If it's announced he's made the starting rotation before a draft, is taking him in the 15th round a reasonable gamble considering the other pitchers being taken around that spot?

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 2:31 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Who has more rbi this year, Nelson Cruz or Chris Davis? oooooh, very good question. Cruz at cleanup certainly has the rbi opp advantage. oh yeah, it's not my thread.

The Mighty Men · Post by **The Mighty Men** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 2:46 am

Scott Zeidman - You drafted a very well balanced team recently in a $125 slow draft. One player on that team is Johan Santana. I'd like to know your outlook for Johan this year, and why you chose him over a hitter.

Sack · Post by **Sack** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:20 am

Creative Sports:

I've been a fan of some of your past Spring Training reports. Will you offer a similiar product this season? How is most of the information for these past reports gathered, is it a group of reporters on scene or is the informaton gained via word of mouth with contacts within the game? Thanks.

Ken M

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:43 am

Over/Unders:

Ryan Howard BA .275

Ian Kinsler 135 Games played

Tim Lincecum 220 K's

K-rod 45 saves

Matt Holliday 32 homers

Buster · Post by **Buster** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:54 am

Getting a head start, as I am swamped here at the office.

Was Derek Jeter's 2008 just another year on a downward trend or can it be more attributed to injuries? I made the mistake of drafting Jeter at the end of the 3rd round last season, figuring that, at minimum, he would hit .300, steal 15 bags, score 100 runs, and be the “regular” Derek Jeter we all have grown to expect. Wrong. At 34 years old, Jeter certainly isn’t getting any better. Although the Yankees have improved the lineup around him, you cannot expect a better 2009 than we got in 2008, and 2008 wasn’t that good. If shortstop was a thin position, Jeter’s numbers might be fine. However, shortstop isn’t second base. With Hanley, Reyes, and Rollins certainly ahead of him, and with Furcal, Tulowitzki, Drew, Hardy, Peralta and Young arguably as good or better (and with significantly more upside), Jeter doesn’t have the draft value he had, even last year. I’d be moderately surprised if Jeter were able to repeat 2008, and I’d be shocked if 2009 was better than 2008.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:55 am

More home runs, Carl Crawford or Jose Reyes?

Buster · Post by **Buster** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:55 am

What 2 pitchers currently going in the 7+ rounds (besides Billingsley, Gallardo) could join the elite as soon as this year? Let me give you one.

You’ve got to pay careful attention to A.J. Burnett (presently 97th in Mock Draft Central’s ADP). Going to New York will only improve his chances of getting wins. He had 18 last year for an average Toronto team, and 20 wins over the previous two injury marred seasons in Toronto. His strikeouts will remain about the same (231 last year, and 176 in just 166.2 innings in 2006), so you know that with A.J., you will, at a minimum, excel in two categories. His ERA over the past years has hovered around 3.70, and his WHIP has ranged from 1.17 to 1.34. While he isn’t as sexy as a younger pitcher (Burnett is already 32), his upside is up there with the younger guys, and he has a proven track record.

Buster · Post by **Buster** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:56 am

The top three second basemen(t) in the early going appear to be Kinsler, Pedroia, and Utley. Utley's only question mark appears to be when he will be healthy, not if he will be healthy. However, general concerns are popping up for Kinsler (injury-prone) and Pedroia (can he repeat, especially speed). Are Kinsler and Pedroia worthy of first/early second round consideration, especially considering 2B is a bit thin, or are people setting themselves up for a 2009 buzz-kill? Interesting question. Second base looks like a glorified catcher position, its so scarce. After the big three, you’re looking at Brandon Phillips, Brian Roberts and a bunch of potential with question marks. To win in a home league, you can often win without taking any risks. To win in the NFBC, you’ve got to take the reasonable risk. Then again, if you blow a first or second round pick, you’ve got a hill to climb.

Kinsler’s never had 525 at bats in the majors, but he’s young (26) and his latest injury (sports hernia) isn’t likely to bother him this season. Will he get nicked up and miss twenty games? Yes. Is he the second coming of Milton Bradley? I don’t think so. Even at 400-525 at bats, Kinsler will contribute a minimum of a 20:20 season, with 100 runs and a strong batting average.

I was down on Pedroia last season, not expecting him to put up quality numbers. I was, obviously, wrong. However, he cannot repeat 2008. While speed doesn’t slump, 20 steals isn’t all that. If he drops five home runs (quite possible), he ends up hitting .300 with 20 steals and 12 HR. That’s good, but not star quality, and certainly not 1st round numbers, even at 2nd base.

I’d take Kinsler at the end of the first round (12th and later), and not worry about the 20 games he will miss. I wouldn’t consider Pedroia until at least the 20th pick (and he will be gone by then, so I won’t have to make a decision on him). Obviously, we all need to wait on Utley to see how he is doing, and then consider him at that time.

Buster · Post by **Buster** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:58 am

Can the Mets REALLY be thinking of moving Reyes to the #3 hole, or is that just spring-training sound bite? How does the #3 hole impact Reyes' fantasy value? Does it drop him from top five consideration? No. Every Spring, we hear the same type of thing. “So and so has lost 20 pounds, had lasix surgery and is now the ball looks like a watermelon. He’s going to really break out this year.” Guess what, so and so is still a bum, he couldn’t hit a watermelon off of a tea, and his only breakout is a pinch hit triple in late August. Reyes won’t move to the number three hole, so it won’t impact his fantasy value, and he still should be taken between number four and seven in the draft.

Buster · Post by **Buster** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:58 am

How badly will McLouth miss Bay and Nady over the course of the whole 2009 season? McLouth’s power dropped significantly after the all-star break (SLG .542 pre, .425 after). How much of this was due to him playing over his head pre-all star break, and how much can be attributed to the loss of Bay and Nady is unknown. His walk rate increased a bit, but not substantially. No matter the reason, McLouth is more likely to hit less than 20 HR than he is to hit more than 25. He’ll still run, but won’t have 2008 value this season.

Buster · Post by **Buster** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 6:59 am

If you had a pick between Chris Davis and Dan Uggla for the 2009 season, who would it be and why? As much as I am not an Uggla fan, I’ve got to go with him. As second base is thin, getting a virtual guarantee of 25 or more home runs plus 80 or more RBI at second base, at the point in the draft that both are taken, is well worth it.

Buster · Post by **Buster** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:00 am

Is it recommended going after one of the big M's at catcher or waiting until later to grab your catchers? For the most part, the M’s are overrated. People keep expecting Mauer to hit for power. Back in 1976, the same people kept saying that the Tampa Bay Bucs would win a game. They didn’t. So in 1977, again we heard that Tampa would win. When the Bucs won, finally, in their 13th game of the year, we heard, “told you so.” Great, they were wrong for the first 26 games, and then they pat themselves on the back in game 27.

Mauer will, one day, hit for some power. I don’t want to spend the draft pick hoping that it is this year. Russell Martin is overrated. His numbers don’t match up to his draft slot. Eighteen stolen bases is great, but not enough to justify a third round pick. Does Martin have the capability of stealing 30? No. Victor Martinez is a question mark. Drafting question marks early is suicidal. Martinez will be drafted based on his prior years. Since he won’t eclipse those years, the best you can do is break even on him. Not the way to succeed. Brian McCann is the only catcher I’d consider early.

Buster · Post by **Buster** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:01 am

Who has more rbi this year, Nelson Cruz or Chris Davis Davis.

Buster · Post by **Buster** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:02 am

Tommy Hanson could be the next dominant pitcher we see come through the pipeline. If it's announced he's made the starting rotation before a draft, is taking him in the 15th round a reasonable gamble considering the other pitchers being taken around that spot? “Max Scherzer.” Enough said. Want more, try “Clayton Kershaw.” Great talent, wonderful keeper pitcher, might be solid this year. How much did their owners get out of them last year? Hanson might be fantastic, but young pitcher are notorious for failing to live up to the hype. Even if they pitch well, they are shut down early. Let someone else take this high risk, minimal reward pick in the 15th round. Now, at round 20 or later, well that is a different story.

Brian Walton · Post by **Brian Walton** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 7:02 am

I wanted to mention a few things up front. First of all, thanks to Greg and Tom for the invitation.

Buster and I are among the group that includes many of you that have been in the NFBC from the start. I continue to believe this is the finest competition out there. Though I don’t have time to post often here, my member number of 169 at least confirms I am an old-timer. My best personal finish in the main event was 11th. Buster, member 200, has not only done better recently, he is a better player, too!

Rotated among the four writers from CS who compete here is a weekly column in-season about the NFBC, so make sure to check that out starting next month. One other bit of news is that we at CS are partnering with ToddZ in the return of Mastersball.com, including a very active forum.

Finally, two of our annual products to help you prepare for your drafts this year are totally free. Lawr Michaels’ Top 250 Prospect List is in its 13th year and our Draft Kit, powered by our Zen Production Engine, is also free to download from www.creativesports.com.

JP Kastner, who will be stopping by with Marc Meltzer later on, is the primary architect of the Draft Kit, though we all worked on it, writing capsules and adjusting playing time estimates. JP is also a Strat-O-Matic expert, so feel free to go there too with your questions if you’d like.

In my other job, I cover the St. Louis Cardinals system in depth, www.thecardinalnation.com so if anyone wants to know the top players on the Dominican Summer League Cards, you’ve got the right guy here!

On to your questions… By the way, feel free to discuss and disagree…

[ February 17, 2009, 02:09 PM: Message edited by: Brian Walton ]