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Brian Walton · Post by **Brian Walton** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 8:24 am

Originally posted by BEF:

What's a fair round for Wily Tavares? And does it make sense that Ellsbury goes in the 5th/6th while Wily goes 6 to 7 rounds later? BEF, are you a ringer? Seriously, I think a fair round for Willy is about ten, which would be five or six later than most people are taking Ellsbury.

The latter does play on a much better team than the former. We have Ellsbury down for 101 runs vs. just 64 for Willy.

Brian Walton · Post by **Brian Walton** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 8:44 am

The questions seem to have dried up for now, so I am going to sign off.

Please continue to post questions and comments as JP Kastner and Marc Meltzer will be back here at 7 p.m. EST.

Thanks all and good luck this season!

CREATiVESPORTS-Marc · Post by **CREATiVESPORTS-Marc** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 11:52 am

Time for Round 2

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 11:54 am

WHO's the closer in Detroit,ST Louis,and Seattle.

CREATiVESPORTS-Marc · Post by **CREATiVESPORTS-Marc** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 11:55 am

From a few earlier questions

2 pitchers going in round 7+ to join elite - Matt Cain and Josh Johnson (with Chris Volstad and David Price just behind them)

Jeter downward trend - No - In 13 seasons, Jeter has hit over 20 HR only three times (and no more than 24). Jeter only had 11 SB in 16 attempts in 2008, but also posted the same exact numbers in 2003. In 2004, the SB number bounced up to 23. While Jeter is now five years older, I doubt he goes back to 23 SB, but certainly 15-18 are in range. Jeter is a solid batting average contributor - never lower than .291 and a solid run scorer. If you had no name to go with the line, where would you select a SS going .300-13-80-100-15?

Kinsler/Pedroia in the first round? - Kinsler yes, Pedroia no. Kinsler had 145 fewer AB's than Pedroia in 2008 and the numbers were not significantly different. I dont see Pedroia's numbers going up, while it is easy to see Kinsler jumping. I also like drafting near the bottom of round 1 and going for 20-20 (with 30-30 potential) middle infielders right from the start.

Reyes batting 3rd?

I cannot see Jose Reyes pulling a Barry Bonds and going from the leadoff spot to the 3-hole. Reyes is a stud when he is not trying to hit home runs. But I would not drop Reyes from the top-five overall if he starts the season hitting 3rd. The worst case is that he starts the season going 1-for-20 then moves back to leadoff.

One of the M-catchers or grab catchers late?

If I can get McCann or Soto in the 4th round I am taking them. And I am also grabbing my second catcher no later than round 11. My apologies for convincing Brian Walton to go for a catcher as he mentioned earlier - he took Victor.

Hanson in the 15th round if he is named the 5th starter? - My belief is that once you hit near round 15, you are better off trying to hit a home run with a young unproven guy with a job as opposed to a veteran trying to hang on. Hanson fits that mold.

CREATiVESPORTS-Marc · Post by **CREATiVESPORTS-Marc** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 11:59 am

A few more from earlier

Spring training reports?

I dont know if we are doing the Spring Training Reports or not. If we dont, I will try and post updates on what I see. I have the good fortune of living in Jupiter Florida and attend a good majority of the Marlins and Cardinals spring training games.

Ryan Howard BA .275 - UNDER

Ian Kinsler 135 Games played - OVER

Tim Lincecum 220 K's - OVER

K-rod 45 saves - UNDER

Matt Holliday 32 homers - UNDER

More home runs, Carl Crawford or Jose Reyes? - Neither hits more than 15, so does it really matter.

Would you trust a 4th round pick on Furcal?

If not, when or would you pull the trigger? No - He will be gone long before I would take him, so I dont have to worry about it.

Ellsbury, over/under 50 sb's - OVER

Figgins, over/under 50 sb's - UNDER

Rank these outfielders?

Carlos Gomez

Juan Pierre

Michael Bourne

Co Co Crisp

Gomez - Lock for playing time. Minn loves his defense

Crisp - Keeps the starting job in KC

Pierre - No defined job, but finds enough ABs to steal bases

Bourn - Loses his job if he cant hit

Over/Under 30 saves

Devine - UNDER (injury)

F Francisco - OVER

M Gonzalez - UNDER (injury)

Lindstrom - UNDER (too many walks)

CREATiVESPORTS-Marc · Post by **CREATiVESPORTS-Marc** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:03 pm

Originally posted by eddiejag:

WHO's the closer in Detroit,ST Louis,and Seattle. Rodney gets first crack with Detroit.

Jason Motte is still flying under the radar in St. Louis. He might not win the job right out of spring training, but he will close for the Cards. Drafted by the Cards as a catcher and could not hit a lick. Converted to pitcher and took right to it.

Tyler Walker in Seattle if Morrow starts.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:03 pm

Your up in the 15th round and have a balanced team with just 2 outfielders.These four are still on the board ,please explain the order of your selection's.

Mike Cameron

Chase Headley

Jeff Francoeur

Jose Gullien

JP Kastner · Post by **JP Kastner** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:04 pm

Originally posted by eddiejag:

WHO's the closer in Detroit,ST Louis,and Seattle. Jim Leyland has said that they won't use a committee, so Brandon Lyon has the best chance. I've always felt that Joel Zumaya would have the job if he could just stay healthy enough to pitch.

There is a battle in St. Louis. Chris Perez has always been considered the closer of the future and he is working hard to fix his slider. His slider has not progressed as he moved up. This is a battle you'll just have to watch this spring.

Seattle, well, that one is a bit more complicated. Roy Corcoran doesn't strike anyone out, but he induces ground outs and double plays. Double plays are better than a strike out, but you'd want to have someone with more dominating stuff. Mark Lowe is someone else who has been mentioned, but he has health issues as well.

Your best best is to avoid drafting a closer from any of these cities.

JP Kastner · Post by **JP Kastner** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:12 pm

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Your up in the 15th round and have a balanced team with just 2 outfielders.These four are still on the board ,please explain the order of your selection's.

Mike Cameron

Chase Headley

Jeff Francoeur

Jose Gullien I would start with Cameron. He hit 25 HR and stole 17 despite missing a month. The average will kill you, but you can make that up.

Then I would go with Guillen. He isn't going to steal 10 bases anymore, but he'll give you average.

Then Headley. He will eventually hit for power, not this year.

That leaves Francoeur. His walk rate scares me.

CREATiVESPORTS-Marc · Post by **CREATiVESPORTS-Marc** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:12 pm

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Your up in the 15th round and have a balanced team with just 2 outfielders.These four are still on the board ,please explain the order of your selection's.

Mike Cameron

Chase Headley

Jeff Francoeur

Jose Gullien 1) I would love to see Francoeur available when I am up in the 15th round. Yes, he really burned me in a couple of leagues last year. But there is serious 30-HR potential.

2) Guillen can be penciled in for 20-80-.275

3) Headley is unproven but can hit 20-80-.275 (but I would put him behind Guillen because he never has).

4) Cameron can be penciled in for 20-70-.240 with 15 SB. The batting average is an absolute killer.

CREATiVESPORTS-Marc · Post by **CREATiVESPORTS-Marc** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:14 pm

Originally posted by JP Kastner:

quote:Originally posted by eddiejag:

Your up in the 15th round and have a balanced team with just 2 outfielders.These four are still on the board ,please explain the order of your selection's.

Mike Cameron

Chase Headley

Jeff Francoeur

Jose Gullien I would start with Cameron. He hit 25 HR and stole 17 despite missing a month. The average will kill you, but you can make that up.

Then I would go with Guillen. He isn't going to steal 10 bases anymore, but he'll give you average.

Then Headley. He will eventually hit for power, not this year.

That leaves Francoeur. His walk rate scares me. [/QUOTE]You can tell the the CREATiVESPORTS writers do not all think alike!!!!!!

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:23 pm

Reminds me of a tout line...giving 50% of the callers 49ers -2, and the other 50% Rams +2.

Depending on who you quote...Creative Sport will have nailed it!

Kidding here!

~Lance

JP Kastner · Post by **JP Kastner** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:24 pm

I have a few answers to previous questions as well.

I am confident that Rickey Nolasco was no fluke last year. He developed a split finger and things went better for him. Instead of two plus pitches, he has three and that is the difference between a #4 or #5 starter or a #1 or #2.

I agree with Buster, that A.J. Burnett is under appreciated. If you look at his splits over the past three years, he pitches better under pressure. His numbers against the Yankees and Red Sox are outstanding. He struggles with the Royals and Indians. The same thing happened when he was first called up. His minor league numbers weren’t great. He needs something to pitch for to do his best. Wearing pin strikes means that every outing is going to be important.

--

As far as Jeter, looking at his performance trends as a 34 year old, he is aging gracefully. He is not going to fall off the table, but you cannot fight time. I should note that historically, some players at this age have one last flare up. Paul Molitor in 1993 is an example. Jim Eisenreich in 1995 is another. So, it is not unreasonable to predict that he'll have one more good season on the way down. You just cannot predict at what age he'll do it.

--

The great thing about CREATiVESPORTS is that we don't agree when we talk about players internally.

Utley health is just something you have to watch. I for one think Pedroia is one of those players who manages to get 120% out of himself. Although he is a little guy (5’9”), he has the some of the best hand/eye coordination in the game. His AVE is real. That allows him to swing from his heels. He didn't hit 54 doubles on accident. The thing about his speed was his outstanding success rate (20-1). That is an indicator that he has refined his skills. He knows when to steal. Larry Walker didn't have great speed, he just knew when to do it.

Kinsler is a reminder that there are three positions where a player is likely to get more than the others. Those positions are catcher, 2B and SS. There will be collisions.

--

Reyes moving to the #3 spot is just noise.

--

McLouth was a fluke. Will he miss Bay and Nady? It doesn't matter.

--

I would pick Uggla over Davis. It is the evil I know instead of the evil I don’t. Nearly 100 RBI from my second baseman goes a long way to cover for his lack of AVE. Davis is young and we’ll have to see what he can do through a whole season. How does he adjust? His opponents are going to make him have to adjust.

--

In the mock draft I did a couple of weeks ago, I grabbed one of the big M’s. There are only a couple of catchers that help you so if you can get at least one, you are in good shape. ADP has it right. If you don’t, you need to adjust right away to pick up hitters to cover what you are loosing from your two catcher’s spots.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:29 pm

Beckett. 2007 year OR 2008 year?

JP Kastner · Post by **JP Kastner** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:29 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Reminds me of a tout line...giving 50% of the callers 49ers -2, and the other 50% Rams +2.

Depending on who you quote...Creative Sport will have nailed it!

Kidding here!

~Lance Something to keep in mind about CREATiVESPORTS. It is a collection of independent writers. We do not do corporate speak. We're not all going to use the same strategy at the NFBC. You are not going to see us draft the same players. What we will do is give you the good and the bad and help you make the right decision.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:29 pm

Thoughts on Alex Gordon??

Mike Jacobs??

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:31 pm

Rank- Lackey, Beckett, Shields, Cl Lee and why.

Buster · Post by **Buster** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:32 pm

Lance:

I've got the 49ers -2.

Buster

FFBL23 · Post by **FFBL23** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:34 pm

Which of the following has a bigger year:

Votto, N. Cruz, or J. Bruce?

JP Kastner · Post by **JP Kastner** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:35 pm

Originally posted by JohnZ:

Thoughts on Alex Gordon??

Mike Jacobs?? Gordon should have spent the 2007 season in Triple-A. There was on-base growth last year, but he is not a candidate for the third Major League season breakout rule. .270/18/10

Jacobs will play every day. No change from park effect. .250/30/0.

CREATiVESPORTS-Marc · Post by **CREATiVESPORTS-Marc** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:40 pm

Originally posted by JohnZ:

Thoughts on Alex Gordon??

Mike Jacobs?? I agree with JP on Jacobs. Bad batting average. Good home run total. Not the kind of guy I am looking for at 1B.

I am much higher on Gordon than JP. I am willing to use a roster spot on my team betting on Gordon going 20-20 with at least a .275 batting average. He will also have good RBI opportunities in a much-improved KC batting order.

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:42 pm

Originally posted by CREATiVESPORTS-Marc:

quote:Originally posted by eddiejag:

WHO's the closer in Detroit,ST Louis,and Seattle. Rodney gets first crack with Detroit.

[/QUOTE]Eddie just wet himself.

JP Kastner · Post by **JP Kastner** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:42 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Rank- Lackey, Beckett, Shields, Cl Lee and why. I would put Beckett first. A mid-90's fastball and one of the top three curve balls in the game.

Second is Shields. He induces ground outs to one of the best defenses. That was the big change between 2008 and 2007.

Third is Lee. I know he won the Cy Young, but I still cannot get over his struggles in 2006 and 2007.

Finally you have Lackey. He struggled against right-handers. Some of it was his injury.

CREATiVESPORTS-Marc · Post by **CREATiVESPORTS-Marc** » Tue Feb 17, 2009 12:44 pm

Originally posted by FFBL23:

Which of the following has a bigger year:

Votto, N. Cruz, or J. Bruce? 1) Bruce - Going to be a super-stud. Get him now. Next year he goes in the first two rounds.

2) Votto - Very solid. Proven in 2008.

4) N. Cruz - Too much of a wild card. Sure he hit the tar out of Triple-A and a Sept call-up. But he is going way too high in the drafts I have seen for me to be comfortable with that pick.