Greg A. Live Chat Today At 3 ET

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 5:01 am

Okay, we have Alex Patton and Peter Kreutzer live here tomorrow for some serious player evaluations, but I thought I'd kick off the week with a fireside chat with ol' Greg.

It's 11 days until I leave for Phoenix and the LABR drafts and just over three weeks before I leave for Las Vegas and the NFBC drafts. So I won't have much time to do live chats, but today works well.

Let's get together today and discuss some baseball. Post some questions here ahead of time and after I return from hoops I'll roll with whatever you have. The WBC starts next week, spring training games start next week and through a bad economy we have about 78 spots left in the main event. How cool is all that?

I'm here. Let's chat this afternoon.

[ February 23, 2009, 01:29 PM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 5:09 am

Greg, I threw this question out there in the other chat, but I'd be curious your home-town perspective on it.

Ken Macha is now managing the Brewers, his history is as a bench coach in Boston, and manger in Oakland, both teams who during his tenure turned a blind eye to the running game. Do you think that is indicative of Macha's style? Can we expect a decrease in Stolen Base attempts from the likes of Weeks, Hart, and Braun?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 5:34 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

Greg, I threw this question out there in the other chat, but I'd be curious your home-town perspective on it.

Ken Macha is now managing the Brewers, his history is as a bench coach in Boston, and manger in Oakland, both teams who during his tenure turned a blind eye to the running game. Do you think that is indicative of Macha's style? Can we expect a decrease in Stolen Base attempts from the likes of Weeks, Hart, and Braun? I would be surprised and disappointed if Macha didn't use the assets he's been given in Milwaukee. Let's admit that Boston and Oakland are organizations that historically don't run much, so it's not like it was Macha's will to not run. This is Doug Melvin's team and I don't think he would have hired Macha if he felt he was going to impose an entirely different game plan that what was already here. This is a team that will lose a lot of games if they just wait for the three-run homer because they need to walk more, sacrifice bunt more, and steal more to score enough runs to overcompensate for a poor starting rotation.

So the easy answer is no, I don't think they'll run less under Macha. If anything, I think they'll be much better fundamentally when it comes to bunting, hitting-and-running, and stealing bases than they were under Yost.

Yesterday's Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel had a great story on J.J. Hardy yesterday. He hated batting in front of the pitcher so much last year that he basically forced his way into the second spot. Ned Yost was too stubborn to see what he had in front of him. I think Hardy at 2 followed by Braun, Fielder and Hart is a solid lineup that can create a lot of runs. And Fielder has apparently lost some weight and looks good, so we'll see how this plays out. They will score runs, but there's not enough pitching there to take them to the playoffs this year. I hope I'm wrong, though.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 7:01 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Yesterday's Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel had a great story on J.J. Hardy yesterday. He hated batting in front of the pitcher so much last year that he basically forced his way into the second spot. I am going to ask a question that I know is stupid, but hey, it won't hurt my feelings if someone else calls it stupid. Hardy has GOOD power, much better I think that an average MLB #2 hitter. He would be good protection for Hart. And at #2, well, Hardy is no speedster.

The #2 hitter used to be the guy who put good wood on the ball. Hardy struck out nearly 100 times last year.

So here is the stupid question. What about Kendall? He struck out only 50 times in 500+ AB and saw a resurgence in his OBP (just to .327 and Hardy's was .343). And there is no appreciable difference in their speed. It just seems that Hardy's power is wasted in the #2 hole. Which, by the way, is a great problem for the Brewers to have.

FFBL23 · Post by **FFBL23** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 7:07 am

Greg,

Who are your favorite breakout players for 2009 and why?

FFBL23 · Post by **FFBL23** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 7:09 am

Greg,

What do you expect out of BJ Upton this year? Will he put it all together or get off to a slow start due to shoulder injury?

RedRum · Post by **RedRum** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 7:17 am

Safe or Out ??? lol I thought Id lighten up everyone's mood with a little Midget Wrestling...

[ February 23, 2009, 01:18 PM: Message edited by: RedRum ]

swampass · Post by **swampass** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 7:24 am

lets talk 1b. Morneau has almost won 2 mvp's now, but i wonder about him ever being a consistent over 25 homer guy. A Gonzalez just upped his homers for the 3rd straight season.. to 36, but has a brutal park and team around him. Fielder's power dropped off considerably... vegatarian or just a sophmore slump? Pena dropped off considerably as well but was injured and now has a great RH power hitter behind him. And then there are 2 young pups moving up the ranks in Votto and Davis. The older guys seem to be 2nd and 3rd rounders. Do Votto and Davis belong anywhere near the other veteran 1b's? How do you rank these guys and just what kind of dropoff do you see from the #1 guy and last of this bunch?

Thanks!

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 7:31 am

Sorry, I meant 2:00 my time. I have to eat a sub sandwich first.

swampass · Post by **swampass** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 7:37 am

loving the midget face plant! just f'ing hilarious!

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 7:38 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Yesterday's Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel had a great story on J.J. Hardy yesterday. He hated batting in front of the pitcher so much last year that he basically forced his way into the second spot. I am going to ask a question that I know is stupid, but hey, it won't hurt my feelings if someone else calls it stupid. Hardy has GOOD power, much better I think that an average MLB #2 hitter. He would be good protection for Hart. And at #2, well, Hardy is no speedster.

The #2 hitter used to be the guy who put good wood on the ball. Hardy struck out nearly 100 times last year.

So here is the stupid question. What about Kendall? He struck out only 50 times in 500+ AB and saw a resurgence in his OBP (just to .327 and Hardy's was .343). And there is no appreciable difference in their speed. It just seems that Hardy's power is wasted in the #2 hole. Which, by the way, is a great problem for the Brewers to have. [/QUOTE]Okay, I can't resist a quick Brewers' question. Hardy or Hart would be much better in the second hole than Kendall, that's for sure. Kendall can take a good pitch and make the pitcher work, but that's it. Hardy is a legitimate No. 2 hitter who hit .294 with a .341 OBP at that spot. Remember, Robin Yount started as a No. 2 hitter before finally becoming a solid No. 3 hitter and Hardy has some of the same characteristics as Yount. He hits to all fields and can pop a long one if they just throw fastballs to keep Weeks on first (that is when he gets on base). I think he's the right person to bat second in this lineup.

Man, Hart scares me. Watching every at-bat in September was brutal. Pitchers just kept throwing curveballs low and away and he chased EVERY ONE. I hope he was just in a funk, but that was an incredible slump he was in. He could either be a great bargain this year or a bummer if he doesn't learn to lay off that pitch.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 7:43 am

Originally posted by FFBL23:

Greg,

What do you expect out of BJ Upton this year? Will he put it all together or get off to a slow start due to shoulder injury? I think he's going to have a breakout year, as evidenced by his strong post-season performance. Look, he's only 24 and he's entering his third full season as a starter. He played in 145 games last year and even if he isn't ready for Opening Day he could still play in 140+ games.

I see 24 homers and 82 RBIs in 2007 and I see 44 SBs and 60 SB attempts in 2008 and like what I see. I also see an OBP of .386 and .383 over the last two years and realize that this kid is a lot more than just a speedster. He is going to get better with each year and that includes 2009.

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 7:44 am

Greg,

You have been running this - with Tom of course since it's inception.

I always see different takes on the best startegy to build a championship team. How would you go about it? I mean besides the general "build a well-balanced" team.

For example, Shawn has mentioned he likes to try and shoot for 75/75 after the first three rounds for his foundation. Others like to grab an ace in the first couple rounds. Some like closers, others like one and will work the waiver wire.

If you were playing in this contest, how would you go about building your draft? (Knowing you must always adapt on the fly of course). What would you hope to accomplish heading into it?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 7:49 am

Originally posted by FFBL23:

Greg,

Who are your favorite breakout players for 2009 and why? This is always a tough one, but I'll just name a few guys who could produce better than expected.

I agree with Brian Walton, who said he thinks this could be a great year for Carl Crawford. He's dealt with a lot of injuries the last couple of years, but he's just 27 and is entering his eighth season with the Rays. A lot of people don't realize that the Age 27 Phenomenon isn't just about players who turn 27. It's about young players who entered the majors when they were 19, 20 and 21 and who seem to put it all together at the age of 27. They've learned the ropes under the spotlight and something just seems to click at Age 27.

Crawford could be one of these guys. If he can stay healthy, he seems like a second round bargain to me.

I think it's easy to say that Matt Kemp could break out this year and he certainly isn't a bargain right now. But I like his skills set a lot and see big things in 2009.

I think Matt Cain has what it takes to be a real, real bargain this year. He was the victim of run support last year, but I like his stuff.

Adam Jones is going to impress this year, too. I predict that he takes a big step up this year.

Andre Ethier and Zack Greinke look special, too.

huskyfan88 · Post by **huskyfan88** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 7:52 am

Fowler/Rasmus/McCutchen. How much PT & what kind of numbers do they put up this year?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 7:57 am

Originally posted by swampass:

lets talk 1b. Morneau has almost won 2 mvp's now, but i wonder about him ever being a consistent over 25 homer guy. A Gonzalez just upped his homers for the 3rd straight season.. to 36, but has a brutal park and team around him. Fielder's power dropped off considerably... vegatarian or just a sophmore slump? Pena dropped off considerably as well but was injured and now has a great RH power hitter behind him. And then there are 2 young pups moving up the ranks in Votto and Davis. The older guys seem to be 2nd and 3rd rounders. Do Votto and Davis belong anywhere near the other veteran 1b's? How do you rank these guys and just what kind of dropoff do you see from the #1 guy and last of this bunch?

Thanks! First base is so interesting this year because almost a dozen can go in the first 60-70 picks. For me, I'm not worried about Morneau. Yeah, he had only 23 homers last year, but I think he will hit 30+ this year. He's not going to hit 40, but there's nothing wrong with .300-32-115 and 95 runs. He's solid.

Gonzalez has a beautiful swing and he doesn't get flustered at the plate. He's just a good hitter, plain and simple, no matter what park he plays in. It's a perfect swing. Fielder came to camp in better shape, with a better attitude and the contract situation is behind him. I think he pressed early to hit 50 HRs again....in April. He's going to be solid this year, I believe.

Davis and Votto will be fine. I actually like Votto a little more because Davis's strikeouts scare me. But both guys are in hitters' parks and will put up solid numbers.

What's not to like?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 8:01 am

Originally posted by poopy tooth:

Greg,

You have been running this - with Tom of course since it's inception.

I always see different takes on the best startegy to build a championship team. How would you go about it? I mean besides the general "build a well-balanced" team.

For example, Shawn has mentioned he likes to try and shoot for 75/75 after the first three rounds for his foundation. Others like to grab an ace in the first couple rounds. Some like closers, others like one and will work the waiver wire.

If you were playing in this contest, how would you go about building your draft? (Knowing you must always adapt on the fly of course). What would you hope to accomplish heading into it? It's a good question, but one I'm sure someone else can answer better than me. In looking at trends from past years, it's obvious that the key is to build a solid foundation in the first 10 rounds and then to excel in Rounds 11-20. If you look at our past champions and other league champions, they found the right players in Rounds 11-20. Yes, they might have found one or two bargains later on, but it was between picks 151 and 300 that made the difference.

And finally, you have to grind, grind, grind throughout the season in FAAB. That's where I'd need a partner because I just don't have enough hours in a day to do what some of the NFBC greats have done in free agency. You MUST pick up several key free agents throughout the course of the season to win in the NFBC.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 8:05 am

Originally posted by huskyfan88:

Fowler/Rasmus/McCutchen. How much PT & what kind of numbers do they put up this year? At this point, I'm not sure any of them will be able to get enough PT to be worthy picks, unless they just shine in spring training. Fowler may have the best opportunity, so I'd focus on his spring stats the most. Rasmus may have the most talent, but it's hard to see him cracking through that starting lineup right away. He would need a break from someone in the lineup to get enough at-bats to earn a fulltime job.

McCutchen is the most interesting. That kid has speed to burn and I think he's really going to be an exciting player. If I were the Pirates right now, I'd start promoting guys like McCutchen and start building around them NOW. Move McLouth to left and let this kid learn on the job. I don't think it's going to happen, but he's the type of guy who can turn fans onto this team. Bat him leadoff, struggle with him a bit but watch him evolve into a solid player. Pedro Alvarez also could be a late-season callup who fans will identify with and rally around. It's time for a new era in Pittsburgh and time to promote these kids and grow with them.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 8:10 am

Okay, I'll have to ask myself a question: "Greg, are you going to sell out the NFBC main event this year?"

Man, it sure is looking that way. We have 314 teams in the house now, leaving us with 76 open spots. We are working on our 10th league in Las Vegas, but interestingly, we have only 90 for the main event in New York after filling up nine leagues there last year (135 teams). We have 50+ teams from last year in NY who haven't signed up yet and I know a lot of them will be returning. So we're sitting in good shape with 20 days left under our final signup deadline.

We've been averaging 30 signups per week and we've had 32 in the last six days, so it's looking good. You never know, though, as the economy could make it tougher for these last minute signups, but right now I think we stand a good shot at hitting 375, 390 or even 405.

Our goal is to fill up each city perfectly – even though that's tough – and that's what we'll try to do. If you plan on coming back, secure a spot soon so that you're not left behind.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 8:13 am

Greg: "Why can't we fill up an AL Auction League in New York, home of those beloved Yankees?"

Good question GA. This year we are going to fill up a $1300 Mixed Auction League in New York and a $650 Mixed Auction League, but we aren't even sniffing an AL-only or NL-only Auction League in the Big Apple. I find that incredible on the East Coast, but it's not the end of the world. We still will have two auction leagues in NY, but I'm still surprised that we can't get a single only auction league among all the players we have on the East Coast.

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 8:13 am

Greg,

I’m watching the Cubs-Cards on MLB Network. Great game from ’84 when Sandberg hits two homers off Sutter. O Smith and W McGee for the Cards. Sandberg, Mathews, and Davis for the Cubs. Doug Harvey behind the plate, and Tony Kubek doing the game for NBC.

I remember watching this game live and have fond memories. As a Cub and Sandberg fan, I could watch this game every spring to get me in the baseball mood.

Is there one game that you would like to see again if you had the option of replaying any game you wanted?

huskyfan88 · Post by **huskyfan88** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 8:15 am

Greg, another Brew Crew question for you. How does the departure of Mike Maddux impact the development of Gallardo and Parra?

cribgusto · Post by **cribgusto** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 8:15 am

Greg

Do you see marked differences in strategy between main event teams and satellite teams?

Favorite place to eat in Madison?

Willing to have facial-hair competition with Jeff Erickson?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 8:18 am

Originally posted by rucrew2:

Greg,

I’m watching the Cubs-Cards on MLB Network. Great game from ’84 when Sandberg hits two homers off Sutter. O Smith and W McGee for the Cards. Sandberg, Mathews, and Davis for the Cubs. Doug Harvey behind the plate, and Tony Kubek doing the game for NBC.

I remember watching this game live and have fond memories. As a Cub and Sandberg fan, I could watch this game every spring to get me in the baseball mood.

Is there one game that you would like to see again if you had the option of replaying any game you wanted? Easy question Russel. 1982, Game 162 of the regular season at Baltimore to decide the AL Eastern Division title. Sutton against Palmer on the mound and Robin Yount hits two home runs and Ben Oglivie makes an incredible sliding catch as the Brewers win on the road for their first divisional title. It was a beautiful fall day in Baltimore and in southern Wisconsin at the time and as a die-hard Brewers' fan who went to many games that summer in County Stadium, I was on edge the whole time. The Orioles had won three games over the Brewers before that and it would have been one of the biggest chokes of all time if they had been swept on Sunday. But they played magnificently, they then rallied to win the last three games against the California Angels to win the AL pennant and they almost won the World Series. It was a magical season, one that took 26 years to almost duplicate.

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Mon Feb 23, 2009 8:18 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Greg: "Why can't we fill up an AL Auction League in New York, home of those beloved Yankees?"

Good question GA. This year we are going to fill up a $1300 Mixed Auction League in New York and a $650 Mixed Auction League, but we aren't even sniffing an AL-only or NL-only Auction League in the Big Apple. I find that incredible on the East Coast, but it's not the end of the world. We still will have two auction leagues in NY, but I'm still surprised that we can't get a single only auction league among all the players we have on the East Coast. Greg, 2 simple reasons

1. the Yankee fans are afraid their picks will miss 1/3 of the season once the test results come back...

2. most people don't just want to hand over their hard earned money to the Tooth!