Would You Pay More Than $22 For A-Rod?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 12:39 pm

In a very interesting development on Sunday night in the USA Today LABR Auction League, Alex Rodriguez went for a mere $22, just $2 more than Mike Jacobs. There were some LABR owners who said they wouldn't pay $10 for him and the action for him proved that more than one person held that belief.

A-Rod wasn't nominated until the end of the second round by yours truly. I was surprised that nobody had thrown him out for bid because I was as curious as anyone in the industry to learn how much he would go for. Heck, we had him down for $40 before his injury and he went for $50 three weeks earlier in a CBS Sportsline Industry AL-only Auction League. I felt he would go for $28 since we all knew that he was going to have surgery and might be back by mid-May. Having the auction on Sunday, all 12 owners knew what his situation was with Monday's surgery upcoming.

I threw him out for $20 just to see how many owners would bid on him, expecting him to land around $30. Someone else bid $21 and then Mike Sheets of Rototimes.com said $22. Then it was crickets. Perry was auctioneering and he waited for the next bid and I even thought a bit about saying $23, but I didn't do it. The closing went "going once...going twice...sold." Mike was surprised to get him and some were surprised that he went that low, but only one other person had bid for him. Pretty amazing.

I'm not sure what to make of it, but I can tell you as a fellow owner what I was thinking at that time. It was early in the draft and I just didn't want to scramble the rest of the way trying to figure out how to fill that hole in my lineup for six weeks. If he plays 125-130 games at the most, is that still worth $22? And then how much is he going to run if his hip is bad?? Will he have even five stolen bases? And if he doesn't steal much, is the power worth the $20+ bid??

Mike wasn't thrilled to get him, but as I told him "well, at least you'll have an interesting column out of this." But he also may win LABR with him. A-Rod at $22 is a HUGE bargain if he returns good as new for 130 games. It will be fun to watch and I hope he does return value for Mike and anyone else who grabs him.

I'd be interested in our NFBC players' comments on this and even a prediction for what you think he will go for in the Las Vegas $1300 and $650 Auction Leagues. Should be an interesting, interesting season anyway, but this injury to a Top 5 player before Draft Day makes it even more interesting. Good luck all.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 12:45 pm

I'm not sure if the person who got A-Rod in tonight's satellite auction wants the price revealed so I'll just say that he went in that range in this league. Interesting. He was the first player brought up in this league.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 12:56 pm

Not sure what 12 more days of information will tell us about ARod - the surgery, his condition etc.

People have to judge their own risk tolerance versus the upside to roster him knowing he will miss all of April and some portion of May.

Funny you said $28 Greg, because I posted earlier that while I hadn't redone the numbers, that $28 sounded about right assuming he plays a week or two in May.

I think it more prudent to react as the AL LABR owners did in spending low 20s and hoping for the upside.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 1:34 pm

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

Funny you said $28 Greg, because I posted earlier that while I hadn't redone the numbers, that $28 sounded about right assuming he plays a week or two in May.

I think it more prudent to react as the AL LABR owners did in spending low 20s and hoping for the upside. When the news first broke I revised my projections and his mixed league value dropped to $28. When the torn labrum news came out I revised again, and his value dropped to $22 on my model.

I think he'd go for a higher price if nominated late in the auction; those with holes at 3b/CI would reach.

SluggoJD · Post by **SluggoJD** » Mon Mar 09, 2009 4:04 pm

I am glad I saw this thread lol

Wow, I subtracted 9 weeks from the regular season, instead of 9 weeks from now. That was lame.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Mar 10, 2009 12:34 am

In answer to the thread question, I would say "No". If Greg had said $23, the person who bid $22 probably would have bought Greg a case of Corona! That was a tough spot for that guy to bid from, kind of like being under the gun in poker.

I have to keep reminding myself that Fantasy Baseball is not a HOF ballot. It is what can you do for me this year. This is a hip injury, which doesn't have the kind of history sprains, obliques, and anal fissures have for us to get a good idea of how fast he can come back from it. And this was not a complete fix. Only a really big bandaid. Maybe I am just overly risk averse, but I will jack up the target price for all my other CM a little and I will leave A-Rod for others to sweat.

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Tue Mar 10, 2009 1:06 am

I'd be curious if the bidding started at 12, if there would have been more suitors. It probably would have still climbed to the low 20 level, but a few more owners would have had those few seconds of "what if" thoughts.

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Tue Mar 10, 2009 2:13 am

i've pondered this question since yesterday and i'm still not sure what i'd do, but one thing for sure...i'm going to find out in 10 days.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Mar 10, 2009 3:47 am

Originally posted by KentuckyReign:

i've pondered this question since yesterday and i'm still not sure what i'd do, but one thing for sure...i'm going to find out in 10 days.

Yeah, it will be interesting to see what A-Rod goes for in Mixed Auction Leagues, too. There obviously are more third basemen to choose from in mixed leagues, so he could actually go lower than $22. But you know someone is going to gamble on him and hope that he provides good value over 130 games. We'll see, but having been in this spot before and knowing how hamstrung I would be the rest of the auction with him on my team, I just couldn't pull the trigger to go higher than $22.

So what do you think he will go for in an NFBC Mixed Auction League? More of less than $22?

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Mar 10, 2009 4:07 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by KentuckyReign:

i've pondered this question since yesterday and i'm still not sure what i'd do, but one thing for sure...i'm going to find out in 10 days.

Yeah, it will be interesting to see what A-Rod goes for in Mixed Auction Leagues, too. There obviously are more third basemen to choose from in mixed leagues, so he could actually go lower than $22. But you know someone is going to gamble on him and hope that he provides good value over 130 games. We'll see, but having been in this spot before and knowing how hamstrung I would be the rest of the auction with him on my team, I just couldn't pull the trigger to go higher than $22.

So what do you think he will go for in an NFBC Mixed Auction League? More of less than $22? [/QUOTE]Yep, a lot tougher in an auction.

In a snake, backing him with a Zimmerman or Beltre type would be easily done.