The Blanton Ripoff

[DOUGHBOYS]

Originally posted by G-X:

Five pages of posts on this guy??



Who are we talking about.....Joe Blanton or Tom Seaver? It's what sets the NFBC and its players apart.



Although the player is a run of the mill pitcher, there have been a lot of interesting thoughts.



More interesting than singing the praises of a high quality player that everyone is familiar with.

[GOD Loves You]

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by G-X:

Five pages of posts on this guy??



Who are we talking about.....Joe Blanton or Tom Seaver? More interesting than singing the praises of a high quality player that everyone is familiar with. [/QUOTE]I'm really, really , I thought Blanton was a high quality player. Well, at least that's what his K/9 & BB/9 tells us.



Sorry Mark and anyone thinking otherwise, Blanton sucks. Like Crazy has said, he wasn't good in a pitchers park, and now he's in an extreme hitters park. Were you one of the musicians who played the music on the Titanic??

[rkulaski]

This has been one of the best threads all year.



I drafted Sonnanstine in 3 leagues and I'm still trying to figure out exactly what is going on with him. The one time that I benched him was his best start of the year at Yankee stadium.



As for Blanton, would I have taken his as my sixth or seventh starter on the World Champion Phillies based on his peripherals and what he did when he arrived in Philly last year? Yes I would have. But I've had trouble with wins in the main event the last 2 years and he definitely seemed to be a pitcher on a team that would give him run support.



It will be interesting to see if this thread resurfaces in a month.

[ToddZ]

Speaking for myself, I was never trying to suggest that Blanton was going to be anything more than a guy useful to deploy in favorable situations, which is what he normally is.



That said, I am a big believer in favorable situation = home start, and as we have discussed, his home park is not particularly favorable, but as the season wears on, there will be worse options that a normally-producing Blanton to run out there on occasion.



And again, I don't think this is as much about Blanton in particular as it is about varying ways of analyzing pitchers, with Blanton being used an the model.

[Gordon Gekko II]

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:

I'm really, really , I thought Blanton was a high quality player. Well, at least that's what his K/9 & BB/9 tells us.



Sorry Mark and anyone thinking otherwise, Blanton sucks. Like Crazy has said, he wasn't good in a pitchers park, and now he's in an extreme hitters park. Were you one of the musicians who played the music on the Titanic?? sorry patrick. the stats don't lie...



IP 34.1

K/9 7.34

BB/9 2.62



There are only 11 pitchers in the majors that have a better K/9 AND BB/9 than Blanton. Their names...

J. Vazquez

Z. Greinke

F. Hernandez

D. Haren

E. Bedard

C. Hamels

Y. Gallardo

J. Johnson

R. Halladay

R. Nolasco

T. Lilly



The combined whip and era of the pitchers above is: 1.10 whip and 3.17 era



i'm not sure why i continue posting on this subject. it's obvious some of you guys must favor pitchers with horrible k/9 and bad bb/9 (such as cahill).



if you removed all the players names and used only k/9 and bb/9, you would have blanton listed above many many players. you guys bashing him have NO IDEA how to spot a good pitcher. if you do, please back it up with your final main event finishes (my momma told me to ALWAYS consider the source of the rubbish). thank you and have a nice day.



[ May 17, 2009, 07:09 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko II ]

[GOD Loves You]

All I need to do is WATCH him pitch and look at the numbers that actually count in the game we are playing to know he isn't as good as you think he can be. K/9 and BB/9 may be "good", but they aren't leading and haven't led to any success for him.



He's only a spot starter in the NFBC, but you seem to think he's more because of peripherals that are bound to change. He's never sustained a K/9 rate like he currently has....I know, I know, AL to NL, but again, the parks have to be taken into consideration. Have you seen the foul territory in Mcafee?



When do the results trump the underlying stats that say the results should be different?

I'm sure you could've been picking up two start pitchers each week whou would've helped your team way more than the ripoff man!

[Gordon Gekko II]

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:

All I need to do is WATCH him pitch and look at the numbers that actually count in the game we are playing to know he isn't as good as you think he can be. K/9 and BB/9 may be "good", but they aren't leading and haven't led to any success for him.



When do the results trump the underlying stats that say the results should be different?

I'm sure you could've been picking up two start pitchers each week whou would've helped your team way more than the ripoff man! 1. for the most part, i don't watch any games. i've seen all of 5 or 6 innings all year for all the mlb games.



2. results NEVER trump underlying stats in my world.

[Snord35]

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by GOD Loves You:

I'm really, really , I thought Blanton was a high quality player. Well, at least that's what his K/9 & BB/9 tells us.



Sorry Mark and anyone thinking otherwise, Blanton sucks. Like Crazy has said, he wasn't good in a pitchers park, and now he's in an extreme hitters park. Were you one of the musicians who played the music on the Titanic?? sorry patrick. the stats don't lie...



IP 34.1

K/9 7.34

BB/9 2.62



There are only 11 pitchers in the majors that have a better K/9 AND BB/9 than Blanton. Their names...

J. Vazquez

Z. Greinke

F. Hernandez

D. Haren

E. Bedard

C. Hamels

Y. Gallardo

J. Johnson

R. Halladay

R. Nolasco

T. Lilly



The combined whip and era of the pitchers above is: 1.10 whip and 3.17 era



i'm not sure why i continue posting on this subject. it's obvious some of you guys must favor pitchers with horrible k/9 and bad bb/9 (such as cahill).



if you removed all the players names and used only k/9 and bb/9, you would have blanton listed above many many players. you guys bashing him have NO IDEA how to spot a good pitcher. if you do, please back it up with your final main event finishes (my momma told me to ALWAYS consider the source of the rubbish). thank you and have a nice day. [/QUOTE]Hey Gekko you better start driving up the bidding price on Livan Hernandez his BB/9 is 2.79!!!!!! Before you bash him remember this is how you spot a good pitcher!!! Also in his last 4 starts he has a 6.35 K/9

[Gordon Gekko II]

Originally posted by Snord35:

Hey Gekko you better start driving up the bidding price on Livan Hernandez his BB/9 is 2.79!!!!!! Before you bash him remember this is how you spot a good pitcher!!! Also in his last 4 starts he has a 6.35 K/9 what is livan's k/9 and bb/9 for the year?

[Snord35]

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by Snord35:

Hey Gekko you better start driving up the bidding price on Livan Hernandez his BB/9 is 2.79!!!!!! Before you bash him remember this is how you spot a good pitcher!!! Also in his last 4 starts he has a 6.35 K/9 what is livan's k/9 and bb/9 for the year? [/QUOTE]Blanton BB/9 3.66 K/9 7.55

McCarthy BB/9 3.79 K/9 6.87

Eaton BB/9 3.96 K/9 6.69

Pavano BB/9 2.11 K/9 6.75

Ponson BB/9 3.79 K/9 5.21

Livan BB/9 2.79 K/9 5.35

Henderson BB/9 3.73 K/9 6.32

Rusch BB/9 1.45 K/9 6.98

Moehler BB/9 3.00 K/9 6.86

Bass BB/9 2.52 K/9 7.92



Looks to me like Blanton is who we thought he was. Or people better start bidding on Bass, Rusch, and McCarthy!



Maybe you should put hits/9 on your radar Blanton is at 11.44, Livan is at 10.94. I think Livan ran away with H/9 last year at 12.85 as teams hit .342 vs him, so Blanton hasn't hit rock bottom just yet. Marmol last year had the best BAA at .135 and he had a 4.23 BB/9. Many things play a key role in how to judge if a pitcher is good or not.

[Gordon Gekko II]

Originally posted by Snord35:

Maybe you should put hits/9 on your radar and some of you wonder why you don't have more success!

[Snord35]

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by Snord35:

Maybe you should put hits/9 on your radar and some of you wonder why you don't have more success! [/QUOTE]What wrong someone can't get out of the box I put him in?

[TOXIC ASSETS]

GG - I'm stunned that you don't watch much baseball! Figuered you as a basball junkie with the MLB Direct TV package or something like that.



DOUGHBOYS - I agree. This gang here has gone above and beyond in the Blanton analysis but that's what makes the NBBC a good thing.



I have a couple of the old Bill James books from the 80s. I remember there being some discussion about a similar topic. A good K/BB ratio won't help you if you are giving up too many hits and especially home runs. Another thing to consider is, how difficult is it to run against some pitchers verus others. Anyone have Blanton's numbers in that area?

[Gordon Gekko II]

Originally posted by TOXIC ASSETS:

GG - I'm stunned that you don't watch much baseball! Figuered you as a basball junkie with the MLB Direct TV package or something like that.

i already spend enough time crunching #'s, and yes, more then just looking at k/9 and bb/9



i don't have anymore time in the day to watch games as well. no mlb package. i tried that last year for a month, and while it was great watching any game i wanted, i found my family getting short-changed with my time. nothing is important enough to short-change my family.

[Gordon Gekko II]

Originally posted by Snord35:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by Snord35:

Maybe you should put hits/9 on your radar and some of you wonder why you don't have more success! [/QUOTE]What wrong someone can't get out of the box I put him in? [/QUOTE]not sure what you mean here. i didn't want to point it out, but even though your analysis was better than what others have used, it was still rubbish.

[Gordon Gekko II]

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:

When do the results trump the underlying stats that say the results should be different?

here's a good one...

even if you've been burnt the last 5 times you tried it, you ALWAYS double down on 11 baby!

[DOUGHBOYS]

I watch baseball. Probably more than most reading this post. The kids are married. The grandkids are in little league and are learning about the game.

Watching the game, to me, gives more insight into the numbers created. While all numbers are final and absolute, some lie. And we won't catch those lies unless we watch.



On a totally different subject...someone posted that their pitcher pitched eight great innings only to have the closer blow the game for his starter, while the closer's team rallied giving the closer an undeserved win and robbing his starter. The poster thought that MLB should change the rule on how wins are given.

Now, more than ever, we as fantasy players need the rule to stay as is. Can you imagine wins and losses being arbitrary and left up to the scorekeeper? Fantasy baseball has grown and most scorekeepers themselves probably play on one level or another.

What if the Cubs scorekeeper had Marmol on a few teams? Marmol could become the first 15 game winning set-up man in the Bigs! And that scorekeeper may be able to justify it. In the end, losing wins by a judgment call would be far worse than losing them because of bad relief.

[Gordon Gekko II]

Statistics never lie. They are what they are. Assuming the same amount of luck for everyone (how could you not), the “lies” you talk about should even out to be negligible. Remember a “lie” in one game has a very small effect over the course of the season. Never overvalue or undervalue a small sample size.



I heard that Jordan Zimmerman is getting squeezed on the strike zone in most starts because he’s a rookie. If he were Johan Santana, he woulda been getting the calls. I don’t know if that is true or not, but I doubt that is true for all umpires. There might be an ump who is tough on rookies, but a wide-spread conspiracy? I doubt it.

[DOUGHBOYS]

Arriving at the numbers, sometimes, gives more information than the final numbers themselves.



Sometimes watching games gives you "collateral information".

This thread is about Blanton. An interview with his pitching coach revealed that the velocity of Blanton's pitches may be reduced because Blanton is throwing more cut fastballs this year. While Blanton himself said that he would give up a couple of miles off his fastball for better location.

Although he is the same pitcher with the same name, if he is throwing different pitches at a different velocity can we still compare his numbers from previous years to this year?. I don't know.

[Dub]

Originally posted by ToddZ:

.... but as the season wears on, there will be worse options that a normally-producing Blanton to run out there on occasion. How deep is your bench? I only have 7

[Dub]

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

1. for the most part, i don't watch any games. i've seen all of 5 or 6 innings all year for all the mlb games.

This is really sad.

[Dub]

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

Statistics never lie. They are what they are "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."

- Mark Twain

[Gordon Gekko II]

Originally posted by Dub:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

1. for the most part, i don't watch any games. i've seen all of 5 or 6 innings all year for all the mlb games.

This is really sad. [/QUOTE]why would this be 'sad'?

[Gordon Gekko II]

Originally posted by Dub:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

Statistics never lie. They are what they are "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."

- Mark Twain [/QUOTE]

[Gordon Gekko II]

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

This thread is about Blanton. An interview with his pitching coach revealed that the velocity of Blanton's pitches may be reduced because Blanton is throwing more cut fastballs this year. While Blanton himself said that he would give up a couple of miles off his fastball for better location.

Although he is the same pitcher with the same name, if he is throwing different pitches at a different velocity can we still compare his numbers from previous years to this year?. I don't know. i'm saying his previous year's stats don't count. OTHERS are trying to make them relevant.