The Blanton Ripoff

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu May 21, 2009 10:02 am

200 posts on Joe Blanton.

I doubt that even his mom, Mable, has texted him that many times over his career.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu May 21, 2009 10:45 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

If you're actual data suggests that league average ERA is under four or that average HR/9 is anywhere outside the realm of 1 and 1.1 or that a homerun is worth less than a run, it's wrong. Enjoy! the data i use for SP COMPS is "qualified" in that it only includes SP (not RP) and only those with > 100IP.

[ May 21, 2009, 04:46 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko II ]

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Thu May 21, 2009 10:46 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

200 posts on Joe Blanton.

I doubt that even his mom, Mable, has texted him that many times over his career. I think it's recon work for the Kawakami thread that should be forthcoming.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu May 21, 2009 10:47 am

Originally posted by NorCalAtlFan:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

200 posts on Joe Blanton.

I doubt that even his mom, Mable, has texted him that many times over his career. I think it's recon work for the Kawakami thread that should be forthcoming. [/QUOTE]only for stalkers like you

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Thu May 21, 2009 10:50 am

i just picked a random subpar pitcher. don't tell me you have him too!!!? godspeed kid.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu May 21, 2009 10:53 am

dude - seek professional help. probably half your posts are about me. find a new mancrush. i'm not interested.

NorCalAtlFan stalking gekko...

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Thu May 21, 2009 11:00 am

lol. yet, you contantly respond. you're too easy.

just don't go crying to greg please.

i had to look. mccarthy, blanton, kawakami, beckett. this thread makes more sense now.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu May 21, 2009 11:09 am

Originally posted by NorCalAtlFan:

lol. yet, you contantly respond. you're too easy.

just don't go crying to greg please.

i had to look. mccarthy, blanton, kawakami, beckett. this thread makes more sense now. Ahhhhh...that explains his fear of Tommy H!

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu May 21, 2009 11:12 am

Originally posted by NorCalAtlFan:

lol. yet, you contantly respond. you're too easy.

just don't go crying to greg please.

i had to look. mccarthy, blanton, kawakami, beckett. this thread makes more sense now. nah, people like you like to constantly jab people (me in this case) on multiple threads somehow thinking it makes you cool and you get your rocks off to that.

me, i'm just here to have fun. if i wanted to jab at you, i'd ask you to list your main event finishes. however, i'm a bigger person that that kid stuff.

guys like you suck some of the fun out of the board.

if you want to keep jabbing at me personally, i'll send Greg an email and tell him that i'm shelving the MB for 1 week because of you, NorCalAtlFan. greg can make of it whatever he wants, but at least he'll know the reason.

damn, there should be an min age to use these MB.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu May 21, 2009 11:13 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

quote:Originally posted by NorCalAtlFan:

lol. yet, you contantly respond. you're too easy.

just don't go crying to greg please.

i had to look. mccarthy, blanton, kawakami, beckett. this thread makes more sense now. Ahhhhh...that explains his fear of Tommy H!

[/QUOTE]i have tommy H in more leagues than i have kawacocki!

swampass · Post by **swampass** » Thu May 21, 2009 11:18 am

Originally posted by NorCalAtlFan:

lol. yet, you contantly respond. you're too easy.

just don't go crying to greg please.

i had to look. mccarthy, blanton, kawakami, beckett. this thread makes more sense now. dont forget his fanastic 2 start gems for this week. mccarthy, martis, augenstein, and sean gallagher. wrong, wrong, wrong, and very wrong.

and no im not jealous of someone of your stature.. you're just a waterboy.

"Hey, moron! Hey! Moron! Duh! L-L-Look at me. I'm th-th-the waterboy. Duh! I got a wooden spoon! Duh!"

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu May 21, 2009 11:20 am

Originally posted by swampass:

quote:Originally posted by NorCalAtlFan:

lol. yet, you contantly respond. you're too easy.

just don't go crying to greg please.

i had to look. mccarthy, blanton, kawakami, beckett. this thread makes more sense now. dont forget his fanastic 2 start gems for this week. mccarthy, martis, augenstein, and sean gallagher. wrong, wrong, wrong, and very wrong.

and no im not jealous of someone of your stature.. you're just a waterboy.

"Hey, moron! Hey! Moron! Duh! L-L-Look at me. I'm th-th-the waterboy. Duh! I got a wooden spoon! Duh!" [/QUOTE]so says the guy ranked lower than 300 on the lifetime rankings.

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Thu May 21, 2009 11:23 am

"so says the guy ranked lower than 300 on the lifetime rankings."

i thought you were above that. a man is only as good as his word. hmmmm.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu May 21, 2009 11:25 am

Originally posted by NorCalAtlFan:

"so says the guy ranked lower than 300 on the lifetime rankings."

i thought you were above that. a man is only as good as his word. hmmmm. i don't know where he is ranked. i was just guessing!

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Thu May 21, 2009 11:26 am

lol. good one. are we friends again?

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu May 21, 2009 11:27 am

Zola - Can you drop some Blanton stats in this conversation? I always feel better after you post. I need HeLp!!!!!

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu May 21, 2009 11:29 am

Originally posted by NorCalAtlFan:

lol. good one. are we friends again?

ya, we've always been, but recently you've been laying it on pretty thick. like i said, sucks some of the fun out of the boards.

i get it, you don't like blanton and no matter what i say about his peripherals, you won't change your mind. can u find a new player to hate on, AND MAKE SURE HE'S NOT ON MY ROSTER!!!

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Thu May 21, 2009 11:38 am

fair enough. if it's any consolation, i hate:

navarro

olivo

peralta

ankiel

hanraham

kouz

fontenot

and they are all on my roster. it's a whitehot hate.

swampass · Post by **swampass** » Thu May 21, 2009 12:07 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by NorCalAtlFan:

"so says the guy ranked lower than 300 on the lifetime rankings."

i thought you were above that. a man is only as good as his word. hmmmm. i don't know where he is ranked. i was just guessing! [/QUOTE]lifetime rankings are as valuable as your blanton stats.. they mean nothing, especially if you havent played every year. this is my third season. first was a disaster and last year i finished 2nd in my league and beat out mr asch who is 47th or something lifetime. do i think im better than him now? no.. it was one season.

the one thing i do notice is that you're never wrong. even when all the stats in the world are against you. you always seem to find some 2nd grade logic that fits your theories.

im over "your boards" and all the "info" you post. and im sure that the NFBC would come to a screeching halt if you stopped posting. I know I for one would cry myself to sleep... in joy.

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Thu May 21, 2009 12:09 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

200 posts on Joe Blanton.

I doubt that even his mom, Mable, has texted him that many times over his career. I honestly don't think this is truly 200 posts on Joe Blanton.....not really anyway....

To an innocent bystander who's read several threads like this during my inaugural season, I'd have to say this is 200 threads on Gordon Gekko II.

I've noticed there are a few magnets on this message board that could get 100 responses if they started a thread about their breakfast any particular morning. Gekko seems to be the king of those magnets.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu May 21, 2009 12:10 pm

Originally posted by swampass:

the one thing i do notice is that you're never wrong. let me correct you...i'm wrong a lot. i just hope to be wrong less times than everyone else.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu May 21, 2009 12:12 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

Zola - Can you drop some Blanton stats in this conversation? I always feel better after you post. I need HeLp!!!!!

I think we are all stat-ted out.

But I do have a little saying...

"I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons."

For a second, take away the name "Joe Blanton" and look at the stats.

If there were 10 guys with his present numbers, chances are 7 or 8 of them will have improved results (read: ERA) going forward. Why? Because historically, that is what happens.

Some of us prefer to end the discussion here and we will be right 70 or 80% of the time and be okay with that.

Now let's put Blanton's name back on his line.

Some of us now like to blend in some scouting and gut instinct and shoot for 10 for 10.

If someone can CONSISTENTLY beat the odds, I will be the first to shake their hand and buy them a cold beverage of their choice. Actually several of them right before the draft/auction if we are in the same league.

Crazy Like a Fox · Post by **Crazy Like a Fox** » Thu May 21, 2009 12:49 pm

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

Zola - Can you drop some Blanton stats in this conversation? I always feel better after you post. I need HeLp!!!!!

I think we are all stat-ted out.

But I do have a little saying...

"I'd rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons."

For a second, take away the name "Joe Blanton" and look at the stats.

If there were 10 guys with his present numbers, chances are 7 or 8 of them will have improved results (read: ERA) going forward. Why? Because historically, that is what happens.

Some of us prefer to end the discussion here and we will be right 70 or 80% of the time and be okay with that.

Now let's put Blanton's name back on his line.

Some of us now like to blend in some scouting and gut instinct and shoot for 10 for 10.

If someone can CONSISTENTLY beat the odds, I will be the first to shake their hand and buy them a cold beverage of their choice. Actually several of them right before the draft/auction if we are in the same league. [/QUOTE]"If there were 10 guys with his present numbers, chances are 7 or 8 of them will have improved results"

Ok, take the name out and let's just look at the numbers.

44.1 innings - 57 hits, 8 homers allowed - 17 walks - 37 K's.

I assume when you say, look at the "numbers", you mean peripherals. And I'm sure you're on the side of the fence that says hits allowed is based soley on defense/luck, but if he keeps these present numbers, it spells doom.

If you say, numbers tend to even out to a player's career baseline and he should in turn pitch better the rest of the way, I can agree with that. But looking at all the numbers I can possibly look at, I don't see a rosy future for Blanton, this year or next. His current K/9-K/BB most likely won't stick, as his past doesn't match up. Imagine what his numbers would be if he had last year's peripherals, or the year before? He's simply not a very good pitcher for fantasy. I'm still trying to figure out what possible category he can actually help a team in. E.r.a.? No. Whip? No. K's? No. Wins? No. Ruining the chances to win your league? Quite possibly.

On top of all this, the "positive" move to the National League has clearly been negated by the fact he's pitching in the top 2 best hitter's parks in the National League.

I'm a peripheral guy, no matter how much Gekko might say I'm not, but you can't just look at 2 numbers K/BB and K/9 and come up with accurate analysis and rational projections. Isn't there SO much more to this process? They are very important and are two numbers I look at to start with, not the end all be all factor. I think what's really apparent is that hits allowed and homers allowed aren't looked at nearly enough. A hit is a little more dangerous than a walk, no?

I know we maybe disagree a little bit here and there Todd. I respect your opinions and all the research/stats you come up with, but don't you think if you look at all of Blanton's numbers and history (regardless of how his K/BB or BB/9 look now) it paints a dark forecast, especially in Philly or am I missing the boat here?

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu May 21, 2009 1:40 pm

Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:

don't you think if you look at all of Blanton's numbers and history (regardless of how his K/BB or BB/9 look now) it paints a dark forecast, especially in Philly or am I missing the boat here? why do you keep referencing his career numbers. HE HAS PITCHED OVER 120 INNINGS FOR PHILLY. HIS K/9 IS OVER 7 PER 9. you need to be able to adjust crazy. with your backward thinking, you are likely behind the curve on a lot of players.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu May 21, 2009 2:07 pm

Cliff Note's version is if you look at BB, K, HR and hits and rank them from most in pitcher's control to least, I believe K and BB are at the top, striking guys out and not walking them is more skill than luck, lots more. I believe he has a decent chance to sustain the improved K/9 going to the NL though I would like to see a better BB/9 as a hedge.

At the bottom is hits - google DIPS and McCracken to get details, but normally, 25% of line drives are outs, 80% of fly balls and 75% of grounders. A higher percentage and the hit per inning is "lucky", usually less than a hit per inning (ballpark). A lower percentage and the guy is unlucky and he gives up more than a hit an inning, again ballpark.

57 hits in 44 innings, UNLUCKY

The catch is Blanton's hits are high because he is giving up more line drives than normal. THIS IS THE BIGGEST POINT OF CONTENTION BETWEEN THE NUMBERS GUYS AND THE SCOUTING GUYS. Is the elevated LD% bad luck or bad pitching? This is where the 7 of 10 and 10 of 10 I alluded to above comes into play. I elect to fall on the side that says historically, his LD% is 20%, it is now 26%, going forward I expect 20%.

Not saying he will give up about 31 hits in his next 44 to make it 88 in 88 and "even out", saying I expect 44 in the next 44.

The wild card is homers, which is in-between luck and skill.

ON THE AVERAGE, 10-11% of fly balls go for homers. ON THE AVERAGE. The number of HRs is number of fly balls given up times percentage that go for homers.

I expect Blanton's HR/FB to be higher in CBP. It is now 17%. I believe that will come down.

I'll let those with their own xERA formulas come up with the actual number, but going forward, I see a guy with

K/9 7.1-7.5

BB/9 2.8-3.3

HR/9 1.1-1.3 (his biggest issue and why he is a streamer and not a regular)

BABIP .300